Ok, first off, this is of course all a little tongue-in-cheek, a little bit of fun before I put my proper post out, hopefully on Friday night.
If you haven’t already have a look at the Superbowl comp I’m running.
And sign up to Redzone to enter their £1,000,000 Superbowl comp as well
I have a Yard prop comparison spreadsheet (haven’t got RZ on there yet but I’ll get them added soon) I’ll be on Full10yards on Thursday evening where we’ll be betting a hypothetical £100 on props.
Ah, that wonderful time of the year where the books look to take your money in every way they can possibly think of… and I love it. There’s so many random little things you can bet on, but as always I think there’s value if you look for it, or if you read my posts after I’ve looked for it.
- Nearly 200m Americans are expected to watch the big game.
- It is expected that “Superbowl related spending” (food, beverages, decorations, TVs, game related merchandise, etc…) will breach $14 billion in the US.
- That’s an average of $89 per view in America
- 4,000 tons of Popcorn will be consumed.
- Beer sales increase by $18m in the US the week of the game
As you probably know the National Anthem will be performed by Gladys Knight, and the half time show will be Maroon 5, with guest slots from Travis Scott and Big Boi. (Who the fuck is Travis Scott? – yes, I’m old)
So let’s start, well, at the start.
The National Anthem
I can’t find any line on over/under at the moment, it’s usually set around 2 mins, although last year there was a few seconds difference between PP and Skybet. Pink went under the time last year, 1 min 57 off the top of my head. But you’ve got a soul singing diva doing the Star-spangled banner this year so I’m leaning over. As we all know there’s certifiable trends to follow, the past 12 Anthems are 5-7 for o/u 2:00. – You can get 10/11 on over 1:49 on Skybet. 1:51 (111 seconds definitely isn’t 1:41) on PP if you fancy the under.
The Coin toss
It’s a 50/50 chance, right? Well, you’d think so but history is weird one this one! The toss has landed Tails in 4 of the last 5 Superbowls, the exception being last year, where I’m sure, If I remember rightly, an old guy basically just threw the coin on the floor? Skybet have Heads and Tails both at Evens – 365, “interestingly” have Evens on tails, but 10/11 on heads. WHAT DO THEY KNOW THAT WE DON’T?!?!?!? – Now, game theory suggests that if you win the toss, you defer, therefore getting the ball to start the second half giving you the chance to score twice in succession at the end of the first and start of the second.
- All time record – Heads – 25, Tails – 27
- Only 3 of the last 20 Superbowl tosses have been won by the AFC.
- The winner of the toss has LOST the last 4 Superbowls.
- The Patriots have lost every time they’ve won the toss in a Superbowl.
- The Rams have won the toss in all 3 Superbowls they’ve attended.
- The Patriots have won 9 tosses this year, however, they have chosen to receive twice, against the Chargers recently where they marched down the field taking up 8 mins of game clock and imposing their will on them. (22%)
- The Rams have always deferred when they’ve won the toss this year.
Skybet and PP have odds on who will win the toss, both at evens, history suggests you’re probably best off taking the NFC team over the Patriots; If you can find evens on the Patriots receiving the ball, I think it’s probably a slight value given they’ve chosen to receive a couple of times this year and the Rams always defer. You can get 10/11 on the Patriots to receive the ball on PP.
Half time show
Well, aren’t we all lucky with the choice this year. It’s in Atlanta, A-Town, the home of Outkast, Usher, B.O.B, Ludacris, Childish Gambino and of course – Lil Jon.
So, the NFL in their immortal wisdom decided that ignoring the entire history of hiphop and crunk from the city they go right ahead and choose:
Maroon 5. In fairness there were reportedly quite a few artists who turned down the gig in protest of police brutality in the states, so I’m assuming Adam Levine’s smug face and squeaky annoying as hell pop songs weren’t the first choice of the NFL.
As always you can bet on songs played during half time, first, last and anytime on Skybet. It’s a 15 minute set, usually 7 or 8 songs mixed in there. Unsurprisingly their most famous song “Moves like Jagger” is the favourite to be the first song at 5/4, 2/1 for last, and 1/100 to be played at anytime during their set. Sugar WAS favourite to be the last song of their set at 8/11, 1/50 anytime and 5/1 to be the first they play. – What lovers do is apparently their go-to to open sets, 37 of the last 37 gigs they’ve done have opened with it, it is in to 1/3 in the states, but still at 2/1 on Paddypower over here.
In fact, going by the odds on Skybet, they expect – Moves like Jagger, Payphone, This Love, What lovers do, Don’t wanna know, Sunday Morning, Sugar and Sweet Victory (Spongebob Song) to be played during the set. – They’re all 6/5 and below on the anytime market.
I’m not sure on This Love, or Sunday Morning, they’re pretty slow songs and not what I’d really expect from the half-time show.
The Spongebob song is interesting, and probably a banker after a petition was setup to honour the creator of Spongebob who passed away earlier in the year, and in a promo video from Maroon 5 themselves they included a very short segment including Spongebob himself, very random if they don’t intend to do anything involving him unless they’re just trolling all of us, and I wouldn’t put it past Levine. He strikes me as the type of prick who’d do something like that. – 4/11 for the Spongebob song anytime.
Girls like you is a song that I don’t seem to be able to get away from at the moment, it’s awful, I hate it, but it’s played all the fucking time on Radio, that’s 6/1 to be the first song played on the night.
This one is worth keeping an eye on twitter for during the week, I got 2/1 on any Prince song being played last year and rehearsals in the week basically guaranteed that happened.
You can always bet on his clothing and footwear. Think he’ll be strolling out there in Wellies? Crocs? Fluffy slippers maybe? – Yeah I’m guessing not. White trainers/plimsolls unsurprisingly the favourite at 2/5. Red hi-tops are available at 25/1. He’s not known for being a hat wearer, so not to wear a hat during the 1st song at 1/5 isn’t a shock. – Actual clothing though? Blazer/Shirt combo is apparently the most likely. A Spongebob T-shirt at 8/1 probably isn’t as stupid as it sounds. Topless? 66/1… It wouldn’t shock me. – I need to research this one more!
Ok, the serious stuff now. I do actually believe there’s money to be made here. All on Skybet.
Jim Nantz or Tony Romo MUST say the exact phrase between kick off and the clocks hitting 0:00 in the game.
I won’t bother with the odds-on shots, screen, RPO, hall of fame will all be said. But from the choice Evens and above.
- Counter – Evens – Still evens.
- End-around –
- GOAT –
- Power –
6/4– now 2/5
- Philly special –
2/1– now 11/10
- Bet against us –
4/1– now 5/2
- Flea-flicker –
4/1– now 3/1
- Full house –
6/1– now 4/1
I think there’s a good chance all of those will be said. Power was my favourite and I put it out on twitter, but the price isn’t worth taking now.
I’m allowed £50 on one of these, and I may well full stake on “Power” – I don’t see a way that word isn’t said by either of them during commentary especially given the run game the Patriots have been using in recent weeks.
Since my first draft a lot of these have changed dramatically in price. It only takes £20 or so to get prices slashed on them so I’m not too shocked.
I’m a little less convinced that “You’ve got to hold and give but do it at the right time” will be uttered by either commentator. 100/1 for that, apparently more likely they quote World in motion than Adam Levine dons the Shark suit from Katy Perry’s half time show.
So that’s about it for the stupid props. Enjoy and don’t go stupid on them, as I say they’re just for a bit of fun to keep the interest and make watching Maroon 5 a little more bearable to watch.