With the Hall of Fame game happening tonight (3rd/4th of August) I figure it’s probably time to finally get my arse in gear and sort some previews for the upcoming NFL season. You can hear my thoughts on most of the divisions already on Full10Yards.com podcasts but it’s always nice to have my own spot to spew out some thoughts and opinions, and let’s be fair, the division containing my own team usually starts it all off quite well.
| Win Total | Division | Conference | Super Bowl | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11.5 | 13/10 | 5/1 | 9/1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 | 43/20 | 11/1 | 20/1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5 | 7/2 | 16/1 | 33/1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | 11/2 | 28/1 | 50/1 |
Off the bat, and this might sound amazing coming from me, it seems the Steelers are being treated a little harshly, of course, I don’t think they’ll win the division, conference or Lombardi, but the prices here a too extreme for a well-coached team… Yeah that made me feel bad, far too much niceness towards that lot.
As always, I feel I have to state that I am a Bengals fan, and a Steeler hater and there’s a decent chance those feelings will come across in these previews, although I am also, naturally a pessimist at heart.
Cincinnati Bengals
As always we start off with the division winners from last year, and once again it was the Bengals, that’s 4 of the last 10 now, and two in a row with Joe Burrow making it through full seasons at QB. Those trips have been Super Bowl and AFC Championship over the last couple of years, truly a good time to be a Bengals fan, but can those good times continue?
This year looks like it will be a test of Lou Anoromu and his “mad scientist” abilities on defense as much as anything else. They lost both their starting safeties and while I’m not a defensive guru, I can’t imagine that will be a good thing. They will feel prepared to deal with such a fact though as they have been drafting athletic, adaptable players for the last few years and I don’t think they’ll have any doubts of Dax Hill and acquired Taylor Rapp’s abilities to step up to the job. The defense on the whole, in theory should be much of the same, no real star names, but players performing to the top of their talents in a well organised system, Trey Hendrickson signed on for another couple of years and my boy DJ Reader is one of the both run-stuffers in the league at the heart of the defense, while I do think Joseph Addai will overcome the end of last season and prove himself a very effective pass-rusher.
I wanted to start with the defense as it often gets overlooked by the offense put up by the Bengals. The defense has got them through the play-offs in recent years though and deserves the respect. The other side of the ball for the Bengals looks similar to last year with a very obvious addition on the left side of the line with the signing of Orlando Brown to beef up the LT position, that means that Jonah Williams moves over to RT and strengthens that spot as well with La’el Collins providing competition when healthy. Alex Cappa should return at RG and Ted Karras did well at C last year, so overall the line looks stronger than last year when healthy, had it not been for injuries late in the season they may well have made consecutive Super Bowls.
All of this to say that Joe Burrow is great, I do wish they’d signed him up before Justin Herbert, but here we are… my thoughts on that are that they’re working on a 10-year type deal like Mahomes (who now looks like great value) and that’s what the hold up is in getting him signed up, but who knows. Ja’Marr Chase is a top 3 WR, and Tee Higgins is arguably top 10 and would be WR1 in most teams in the league, add to them Tyler Boyd an recently drafted Charlie Jones who may well take his spot on the roster next season the passing game is fine. They also brought in Irv Smith after Hayden Hurst cashed in and went to the Panthers; While the Bengals don’t tend to use the TE much, Irv is more of a playmaker than Hurst was and if he manages to stay fit should upgrade that position.
Joe Mixon took a pay-cut to stay with the team, and despite some potential legal issues, I personally don’t think the league give him a ban this season, especially as his crime is basically “HOLD ME BACK LADS.” If he does miss some time then they may make a move for Zeke, but I think it’s more likely they give Chase Brown the reins with Trayveon Williams having suffered an injury in camp.
All of this is to say that a healthy Bengals will once again be Super Bowl contenders. They’re a damn good team.
Baltimore Ravens
What an off-season it has been for the Ravens, they finally got a deal sorted with their mercurial QB who magically managed to sort himself a league leading deal by waiting for a QB to sign and asking for a little bit more than they did (before becoming usurped by Herb) and it looks like they might have finally given him a chance to do well by strengthening the pass-catching corps over the summer.
We’ll have a quick bit about their defense before getting into the fun bit, and it should be pretty much the same as last year, they lost Calais Campbell who was still performing at a decent level but getting older, so might have lost a little at pass rush, but the addition late last season of Roquan Smith gave them a great LB group and the secondary is always good, in fairness they’re a very well run defense on the whole and Oweh looks like he’ll make a leap this year and become a household name.
So, on to the offense, so much easier to pass judgement on without digging too deep into it… Obviously Lamar signing up was huge, he has missed games in recent seasons but with the contract signed there could be added incentive to him playing through some knocks. He’s always been one of the best runners in the league but with a new man at OC will we see his passing ability coming to the fore again? Remember he started the year on fire a few years back and finished with 36 TDs on the season, and that was with lesser talent than they’ve got on the roster now. I think they’ll call fewer run plays this year and try to highlight the passing game more, now that doesn’t mean Lamar doesn’t run, of course he will but it may be more ad-lib than planned.
They brought in Odell Beckham in free agency and Zay Flowers was highly drafted this year as well, and who could forget the signings of former first round pick Laquon Treadwell and Nelson Agholor. As flippant as I am about those last two it does show intent at least. I’m not convinced Odell can do it after spending the year out recovering from his ACL, but he should be good to go and the last we saw he could still play the guitar. Flowers seems a good addition and has been getting good reviews in camp (not exactly hard to do) and they’ve obviously still got Mark Andrews who I’d imagine will lead the team in targets once more. It is surely the deepest roster that Lamar has had since he joined the team?
JK Dobbins is a frustrating player to follow during the off-season, he got injured and returned last year but is on PUP again this year despite no real notice of any injury. When healthy he’s the definite lead in the backfield and fun to watch, but if he’s not then Gus Edwards will look to step up as he usually does. If both are healthy then I’d think more 50-30 to JK with the other 20% going elsewhere as the Ravens always have someone else to run it.
An above-average defense, and an above-average offense has me worried about the Ravens this year. They are always well-coached and have the best kicker in the league, if the stars manage to stay healthy they’ll be challenging atop the division and then who knows how far they can go… Well, Lamar winning a playoff game is still beyond him, but well, time will tell.
Cleveland Browns
So your QB is a rapist? Well done you. You paid him a RIDICULOUS amount to try and win the division? Oh dear… Oh. Dear. Taking away the obvious off-field distractions, the pain caused to loyal fans and the money given to (probably) a not very nice person, are the Browns in a position to challenge for the division title?
Seeing as I seem to have gone this way, we’ll start on defense. They have the best CB in the division in Denzel Ward, and arguably the best pass rusher in Myles Garrett (he’s not) and a host of other highly rated players around those two including Za’Darius Smith who they brought in to play opposite Garrett and they look like a decent defense. They will want to stop the run more effectively this year but are set up well against the pass.
Offensively, it relies a lot on whether Deshaun Watson can still do it or not, and from what we saw last year, he couldn’t. I’ll be honest, I’m not convinced he will be the man to take them to the promised land. IF, it’s a big one, he can return to anywhere near the form he showed in *check calendar* 2020 then they’ll probably consider it money well spent, but there’s big doubts for me on that front.
Nick Chubb should have a huge year though without Kareem Hunt on the team. It seems like they’ll get him more involved in the passing game, an area which he’s proven himself talented when given the chance and they’ll use D’Ernest Johnson to spell him, a player who, again has been good when called upon to do a job.
The passing group looks better with Elijah Moore although I’m not sure the Browns are the team to get the best out of his talents, but he’ll be WR2/3 behind Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones who aren’t a bad 1-2 against the league average.
I think they’ll be better running than passing again, and I’m not sure Watson is what they wanted. If he is then they’ll be up there, if not then there’s every chance they finish bottom of the division once more.
Pittsburgh Steelers
As they tend to do, the Steelers have had a solid off-season, they did their job in free agency by bringing in Allen Robinson, Isaac Seumalo, Patrick Peterson and recently Lavonte David and they drafted to their needs with OL in the 1st, the very, very obvious pick of Joey Porter at CB in the second and of course a player who dropped due to issues for everyone to bang on about in Darnell Washington at TE. It’s safe to say they’ve added experience to their roster over the summer. Will their moves result in a playoff push?
So they look like they’ve added more strength to their strongest unit with Pat Pete coming in to slot alongside Minkah Fitzpatrick, two quality players in their time. They have the best pass-rusher in the division in TJ Watt who seems unstoppable at times alongside Alex Highsmith who got paid this summer, and they’ve got a whole host of names along that side of the ball. Fair play, they are strong there as they always are.
From a fan of a rival franchise in the division, I LOVE the fact that Steelers coaches and fans are so happy with Kenny Pickett being their QB going forward. Sure he won them a few games with fourth-quarter drives last year, towards the end of the season where other teams might not have been trying as much as a cult-driven team like the Steelers were in keeping their coaches remarkable “no losing record” streak going (genuinely it’s incredibly impressive) – I think he’s very average and won’t take the team to where they want to go, so that’s all good with me. 7 TDs and 9 INTs across the season… yeah, enjoy that.
They tend to rely on one guy in the running game and with the same OC still at the helm (Matt Canada) it seems unlikely that will change, although I thought they looked better late in the year when Jaylen Warren got a little more of the ball, but I’m not in charge of these things… the passing game, or lack of it, went mainly through Diontae Johnson once again who had a crazy 147 targets through the season despite George “HoF” Pickens being on the other side of the field, remember that one-handed catch he made? My god. He finished with 4 TDs on the season, the same as Mycole Pruitt and Brock Wright did for their teams… But the Steelers, as we are told on an almost daily basis, are the only team who have ever had a good WR, so of course, we should expect massive things from him this year. I do like Pat Friermuth at TE, dude is a beast.
I do think the Steelers looks better than last year, and with some experience behind their young guys it may well be a better season for them.
Overview
The division has got tougher, it seems to every year, but it definitely looks like it will be closer than ever this year. I think all teams have got stronger so it may well come down to health.
The value seems to be the 43/20 (or above) for the Ravens to win the division, they look as strong as they’ve ever been, but at the other end of it I don’t mind 5/2 for Browns to finish 4th – The fact they have the same win total but are so far apart in other odds is a little confusing.
Player-wise, despite my bitchiness I do like George Pickens o4.5 rec. TDs at 10/11 (PP/365) – Pickett will surely throw more than 7 this year?!
I did request the Bengals to win their first 4 and 6 games of the season, but have yet to get a price on there, they play Browns, Ravens, Rams, Titans, Cardinals and Seahawks before their bye week, all are winable (although the Browns always beat them so it could be dead in week 1) – I hit the Eagles on that bet last year and this schedule isn’t a million miles away. If it’s 20/1 or so I’d be happy in first 6.
Right, first preview done, back in the game and on to the… next division. I’ll decide tomorrow.
In the mean time you can listen to my thoughts on the AFC and NFC North, East and South on Full10yards betting podcast with the Wests coming out next week.
If you want to join myself and the F10Y gents watching the Week 1 slate, we will be in Felsons bar in Birmingham on Sunday 10th September where we’ve rented the whole place for the games, get your tickets and look at the 2023 season guide over at https://www.full10yards.co.uk/product-category/kickoff/ – A bargain at twice the price.
And a final bit of self-pub – The Fantasy leagues are up and ready for applications – TouchdownTips Fantasy Leagues 2023/24
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