So, after doing a fairly in-depth AFC North article, I ran out of steam and regular life took over so as I’m down to 10 days until kick-off and in desperate need of doing some previews to get myself back in the game I’ll give a blitz around the AFC and NFC in one article and pick out my favourite bets on each.
I will say that I and the Full10Yards guys have done podcasts breaking down every division and rounded out the off-season program with a look at the awards markets last week as well, you can find them on the F10Y feed on your favourite pod-catchers if you want to hear some of my, Tim’s and Liam’s thoughts.
Talking of the F10Y boys, I’ll be joining them at Felsons in Birmingham for week 1 – They have rented the place out, have drinks deals and every game of the night being shown. It’s free entry now, but you have to give a statemnotice if you want to come on – https://www.full10yards.co.uk/product/kick-off-party-2023/
It goes without saying that the AFC as a whole once again looks considerably stronger than the other side of the game especially at QB where you could make a case that it contains at least 7 of the top 10; Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Allen, Lamar, Lawrence, and then there’s *ahem* Rodgers and Tua who you’d probably have over most of the NFC as well. It makes the whole division incredibly competitive and as a result obviously very tough to predict. See seeing the AFC at 10/13 vs. the 11/10 of the NFC is pretty tempting to kick things off.
Having a look at the conference odds, it’s no surprise that the Chiefs are once again atop it after winning another Lombardi last season against the Eagles, I said years ago that Patrick Mahomes would be the best we’ve seen and my mind hasn’t been changed on that. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills tend to do very well during the regular season but I’m still to be convinced whether they can do it in the post-season, while fellow non-winners the Bengals have at least shown they can win multiple post-season games but haven’t yet closed out the season in style.
It is worth noting that the AFC North and East look a lot tougher on paper this season so the Bills and Bengals aren’t exactly guaranteed to win their division. I do think the Chiefs will manage that again and as weird as it is to say after the last decade or so the Jaguars should have an easy time winning their division, so while I don’t think the Jags have enough to win it all, they have an outside chance of being the two seed as they should really win at least 5 of their 6 division games and outside of division they face the NFC South which is arguably the weakest division in the league.
The Ravens look like a decent outside bet as well with a new OC and Lamar Jackson having probably the best supporting cast he’s had in his career, although as with the Bengals that division looks very tough with even the Steelers looking like they might have something this year.
After years of dominance in the East the only thing we can really say about that division is that the Patriots are probably finishing bottom of it with the Bills faves as usual, the Dolphins and Jets looking a lot stronger this time around, of course the Dolphins’ results were fantastic with a fully healthy Tua last year and if the Aaron Rodgers can play up to the level he has for the past couple of years they should have a fair offense to go with a very good defense.
I would be very surprised if the Chiefs don’t win the West again, although on paper the Chargers have the better roster but they’re the Chargers, and things never go right for them. The Broncos can’t be worse than last year and with Sean Payton now in charge should be fine while the Raiders look like they’ll be propping up the division, they at least have a good RB and WR combo in Jacobs and Adams.
With all that being said in terms of the conference you can actually get good odds on the Bills winning the AFC East, it’s been a couple of years since we’ve seen them at plus money, the Bengals too at plus money is tempting as they have the highest win total of any team in the league this year so may offer some value if you want to attack them that way.
As for outsiders in any of the divisions, the Titans could surprise us, Mike Vrabel has shown he’s a very good coach, the Ravens and even the Steelers in the North might out-perform their odds, the Dolphins at 3/1 are more tempting to me than the Jets at their odds and while I think Chargers will Charger as they tend to each year, I don’t think they should be as large as 3/1 either, so you could put together a decent priced trixie with a few of those at longer prices.
I do think the Patriots and Raiders both finish 4th, and just over 2/1 for the double isn’t terrible at all, bump it up in risky fashion with the Browns to 8/1 and Browns and a maybe JT-less Colts to 26/1.
Ladbrokes and Coral still have the Raiders at 4/5 to NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS on their team specials page – It’s an error, so may be palped, but if you wanted to take a shot on something which is much shorter elsewhere… it’s there.
Player Props around the conference
Laying 10/11 or 5/6 shots isn’t something I tend to do when it takes the entire season to pay off, but I’ve had a look through the props and found a few I do like.
Main prices are from 888 as they paid me pretty well for re-tweeting a few bits last year so I feel I should give them a shove at least, and they are the home of the NFL in the UK, although I have to be true to myself and will state better lines if I find them…
Quarterbacks
CJ Stroud u3075.5 passing yards (3175 on Skybet) – The line has come down, but the supporting cast in Houston is one of the worst in the league, so while the offensive line and Dameon Pierce are very good at what they do, there may not be much chance fo Stroud to succeed at this moment in time.
Lamar Jackson o3400.5 passing yards (3350 on PP)– Conversely, we have seen Lamar notch up 3,127 yards in his MVP year without the help he’s got around him now, and with a new OC there with likely more of a focus on the passing game I think he could hit a new high in passing yards.
I would lean under on Patrick Mahomes at 4700 (4800 on 365) and Tua at 3850 for very different reasons, Mahomes really doesn’t have a good cast around him, he is the best in the league but with MVS as your lead WR and a 7th rounder as your lead RB, it’s not great – Travis Kelce is aging as well, he’ll fall off a cliff or get injured at some points. And Tua… I don’t think he’ll make it through the year healthy, which is horrible to say but those concussions last year really worry me. I don’t want anything bad to happen to him but it’s the NFL, he will get hit.
Passing TDs? I don’t mind Trevor Lawrence topping 25.5, he hit 25 last year and has a better WR1 this year with Ridley playing. I will begrudgingly mention Kenny Pickett o17.5 passing TDs, although I prefer a WR bet later in similar vain, they have been good in preseason and he can’t be as bad as last year.
Running Backs
Breece Hall u900.5 rushing yards (365) – It seems absurd that you can still get this line when there’s a pretty good chance he won’t even be the RB1 on the offense now that Dalvin Cook has been brought in. It seems like a sign he won’t be good to start the year after his injury and if they don’t NEED him now then they shouldn’t rush him back.
Joe Mixon o825.5 rushing yards (PP) – There may have been apprehension over a potential ban for Mixon, but that doesn’t look like it will come this year, if at all (I’d say not at all) so with them not having a whole lot of competition for him at RB he should retain a similar role to last year where if he had a full season he’d have hit 1,000 yards. The offensive line is better too, which should help all the offense.
Nick Chubb o8.5 rushing TDs (365) – He doesn’t have much competition at all with Kareem Hunt out the door, and is one of the best backs in the league in what could be quite a run-heavy offense. Not much more to say really.
WR/TE Props (spoiler: there’s no TE’s mentioned)
Calvin Ridley o900.5 rec. yards – He has pushed Christian Kirk aside, who now comes in a slot-only guy and firmly taken the 1 spot in the passing offense for the Jagaurs, a talented receiver coming off an enforced year off and on to a team who I think will be right up there come the end of the season. The line is too low. (Credit to @NewmanBets on twitter for this one) – Also agree with him on o5.5 rec. TDs at around evens as well.
Garrett Wilson u1150.5 rec. yards (Skybet) – This is extended from me thinking that the Jets won’t be as good as most others do this year. He had 1100 with a worse QB last year, but they also brought in some of Rodgers boys from Green Bay in Lazard and Cobb who will eat into his targets. It’s a higher line than I thought he’d have so I’m taking under.
George Pickens o4.5 rec. TDs. – 10/11 (Skybet) – I hate the guy, he’s somehow coming across as more arrogant than Antonio Brown, which is quite something. I hate his team. I hate the insanely biased hype they get from the NFL account every time he and they do anything at all. BUT I won’t let that stop me thinking this is a very low line. He had 4 last year from a QB who only threw 7. If I think Pickett gets to 18 then I’ve got to think that Pickens gets to at least 5, and I definitely prefer this over the Pickett line. My God. I’m worryingly high on the Steelers this year, am I over-compensating knowing that my distaste of them affects my judgement? I don’t think so. Maybe, or maybe I just don’t want my man Hoffman or Freddy thinking I’m an idiot. In fact I don’ at all mind 8+ at 10/3 on Skybet
Jerry Jeudy u925.5 rec. yards (Skybet) – He’s missing at least week 1 of the season and just can’t stay healthy. Courtland Sutton is decent enough, KJ Hamler and Marvin Mims can put up some numbers too. At the end of the day I don’t think he’ll play enough games to get to 1000 or so.
Defensive Props
Trey Hendrickson o8.5 sacks – 5/6 (Unibet) – The line is 10.5 on Skybet, he’s had 14 in 16 games and 8 in 15 games last year and the Bengals have strengthened the position which should allow them to keep him fresher and put him in on key downs.
I’ll admit the defensive side of things aren’t my highlight, but I know the Bengals pretty well.
Overall
So, some preidictions which will almost certainly be wrong.
Division winners – Dolphins, Bengals, Jags, Chiefs – Playoff teams – Bills, Ravens, Chargers
Conference game – It’s boring to say Bengals v Chiefs isn’t it.
Super Bowl – One of them two against the Eagles or 49ers – Spoiler.
Other things
Obviously I’ll give another nod to the Full10yards Week 1 party – and keep an eye out for our betting pods each Thursday during the season.
TouchdownTips 