With under a week to the opening of the season I’ll round out my shortened pre-season writing with a look at the NFC, what I think will happen in the conference and some of my favourite bets.
You can of course see my AFC preview already, some of the lines may have moved, but after a quick check some of the stronger picks are still available on there so plenty to go for if you wanted to get some antepost bets in for the season.
You can also listen to the Full10Yards podcast where the three us looked at a ton of props around the league this week, available on all podcatchers, AND you can join me and the guys by the river in Birmingham on opening weekend where they’ll be showing every game, it’s free entry and there are drink and food deals available – You’ll have to register interest at Kick off party and we might see you there.
So, the NFC… It’s definitely going to be competitive but it looks very top heavy to me with just a couple of teams who I think have the possibility of challenging most of the AFC side of things. The Eagles and 49ers, to me are the only two teams I can see pushing the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, and probably a few more from that AFC in the Super Bowl if they get there, and unsurprisingly the odds reflect that as well.
So, there’s no surprise to see those two teams topping the odds for the NFC, obviously, the Eagles lost the Super Bowl to the Chiefs after taking an early lead, although they’ll obviously blame the field for the loss as they struggled to generate pass-rush and Mahomes took advantage. The 49ers were hit at QB all season and did well to make it as far as they did, they have decided to go with Mr. Relevant and work around his deficiencies…I’m not convinced they’ll be able to go all the way without a stud under center, but the rest of the roster is up there with the best and they’re well-coached.
Outside of the top two, America’s team (the Cowboys) generally tend to be there or there abouts, there’s always money on them regardless of recent history, they’re of no interest to me, I do like the Lions, but I don’t think they’ve really got a chance of winning the conference, neither do the Seahawks. The Saints should win their division so are shorter than they probably deserve to be, but they are at least well placed with talent on both sides of the ball and Derek Carr is an upgrade on what they had last year.
The last team I’ll talk about is The Vikings – Again, they’re a good team but can Kirk Cousins finally get over his hoodoo and take this team where they want to be? I’m not exactly convinced on that either, but I don’t mind a dabble on them at their price, I do think they’ve got a decent chance of winning the division with the Packers and Bears probably off the pace.
As I hinted at above, I do like the price on The Vikings to win the NFC North, they hit 13 wins last season and haven’t lost THAT much, although I do appreciate the Lions finished strongly and have strengthened over the summer. I can’t be having them at the odds though, so would be backing the Vikings in some acca’s due to the price.
The East is tough to call mainly due to the fact that no-one ever retains the division (15 years and counting). It really should be the Eagles again, but that stat is strong. If it’s not them then it should be the Cowboys, although I’m not exactly convinced that Tony Pollard will be able to handle a full workload for the full season but they have a good trio of WRs in Lamb, Gallup and Cooks. The Giants out-performed expectations last season but will do well to replicate that success this year.
The NFC South is a dumpster fire this year with a rookie, a sophomore, Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield under center for the teams in the division. I don’t think much of Bryce Young and the offensive line in Carolina, and Baker Mayfield could easily lead the league in interceptions in Tampa, although they are pretty strong around him. So it’s probably between the Falcons and Saints. Kamara is suspended for 3 games but they can work around that, Michael Thomas is fit, for now, and Chris Olave is one of the best young WRs in the league. The Falcons are my pick for the division though, they have invested a lot on defence and treated themselves to Bijan Robinson at RB after Allgeier topped 1,000 yards last season. They’ll be run heavy and I do think Art Smith is a good HC.
The West is between two teams, but really I think it’s just the one, and that’s the 49ers. The Seahawks do look stronger this year and did very well last season, fair play to them for that. The defense was very good and Geno Smith exceeded expectations, I’m not convinced he’ll be as good this year but they have a good young RB duo and strengthened at pass catcher with Jaxon Smith-Njigba to go along with Metcalf and Lockett. The 49ers though have a good OL, DL, LB corp, CB group and are stacked on offence as well. The QB the weakest point but he showed he could do it up to a certain point last year, and Chrisitan McCaffrey is arguably the best player in the league. Odds aren’t great, but they should do it.
4th place bets looked good for the AFC but are a little tougher on this side of things, Bears/Packers in the North, Giants/Commies in the East, Panthers/Bucs in the South (I think the Buccs will be 3rd though) and Cardinals seems a banker in the West.
Might be better looking at top 2 in any order and taking Vikings/Lions, Eagles/Cowboys, ignore the South and 49ers/Seahawks in the West although the odds won’t blow you away.
Player Props around the conference.
On to my favourite section and what I think is some great value, although it is tough to back Even money shots for 2-3 months.
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young u3250.5 passing yards – 5/6 (most) – I was going to say this isn’t a knock on the kid, but it kinda is, I don’t think he’ll play the full season and even if he does, they don’t have any WRs. Thielen is OK, but apparently rookie Jonathan Mingo is leading the way in targets. It’s probably going to be a tough year on offense for them so I’m taking under on him.
Running Backs
David Montgomery – 8+ – 15/8 (Skybet), o5.5 – 8/13 – This is one I’ve been banging on about on the Full10yards channels, the guide and the podcast, and even though the line has risen and odds have shortened I think it’s a decent bet still. He comes in to replace Jamaal Williams who had 17 TDs last year, and he’s a better runner. He should get the goal line work behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. I like both the o5.5 and 8+ TDs for him, maybe even a little on 10+.
Miles Sanders o5.5 – 4/5 (Skybet) – Everything looks like it will be a heavy workload for Sanders and he’s a RB I do like, although his health has never been THAT strong and the offensive line has looked poor. There’s not that much competition for him and 6 TDs isn’t a big line for any RB in the league.
WRs and TE’s
Aiyuk o4.5 rec TDs – 5/6 (Skybet) – It’s 5.5 on PP at 10/11 – This is challenging Monty for my best bet in the NFC. Aiyuk is generally over-shadowed by Deebo but he was a favourite target of Purdy last year and finished the season with 8 rec. TDs … So why is the line 4.5? I have no idea, and think it’s a cracking bet.
Darren Waller o4.5 rec TDs – 1/1 (Skybet/PP) – A bit more risk on this one, Waller should get a ton of targets with the Giants employing mainly shorter, quicker types. His health is a worry for me and weirdly he’s never really converted his touches into many TDs while at the Raiders. 9 TDs the most he had in one season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba u725.5 yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – Not really anything against him, although it does look like he might miss at least the first game with a broken wrist, although they’ve not put him on PUP so are obviously confident he’ll be healthy soon. He will be third in line behind Metcalf and Lockett though, so even with a good year I think he’ll struggle to top this line.
Various
I finally had a good look around Paddypower and they’ve got a few interesting markets which I’ll just jumble into a pile here.
NFC South most passing yards – Derek Carr – 8/13 – Not much competition for him.
Eagles most sacks – 11/2 (PP) – They did it last year and look stronger this year.
AFC – Most rush yards in the East – James Cook – 6/1 – Random AFC bet in here – I think Hall and Cook split carries, as do Stevenson and Zeke, and the Dolphins don’t have a stud. Cook has been really bigger up this year as the main ball carrier for the Bills.
AJ Dillon o5.5 TDs – 8/11 – You might have to wait until it gets cold, but he hit the o6.5 for me last year. Obvioulsy the team isn’t as good this year but in theory they’ll go more run-heavy this year with Love at QB.
Saquon most rushing yards in NFC East – 13/8 – I don’t think it will be Pollard, there’s no-one on the Commies and the Eagles have a committee, I was surprised the odds were so high for him.
Miles Sanders most rushing yards in the NFC South 3/1 – Obviously, Bijan is the fave here, but I think they’ll still use Allgeier an annoying amount. Saints are without Kamara for 3 games and I don’t think Rachaad White does this much
Overall
Division Winners – Vikings, Eagles, Falcons, 49ers
Wildcards – Lions, Cowboys, Seahawks
Conference game – 49ers vs. Eagles
I don’t think Purdy can take them all the way, so Eagles vs Bengals/Chiefs in the finalé. LET’S GO
FULL10YARDS WEEK 1 PARTY! – http://WWW.FULL10YARDS.CO.UK/KICKOFF
Of course, I’ll be back next week with opening week and previews through the season!
TouchdownTips 