Week 1 of the NFL season arrives and after a shock defeat for the Chiefs on Thursday night I think it’s safe to say we can expect one or two more surprises this weekend as the course of an NFL Sunday rarely runs smoothly.
Travis Kelce missed that game and the headline news, I think, for today is that Mark Andrews is looking likely to miss their game with Baltimore, so that’s the top two TE’s in fantasy both missing your opening matchups, how nice of them.
We’ll go with one final shout for the Kick-off event hosted by Full10yards.com at Felsons in Birmingham today, register at https://www.full10yards.co.uk/product/kick-off-party-2023/ if you want to watch all the games with me and the guys there.
I’ve got my Draftkings contests up and running so if you want a dabble of that the big contest is $5 entry, 50-player (will reszie down if needed) – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/147494723 and that’s it for pre-amble, let’s get into the games.
San Francisco 49ers -2 at Pittsburgh Steelers: 41.5
First up on Sky are the 49ers who made it to the NFC Championship game last season vs. the Steelers who won every game in pre-season and come in looking to take a step forward. Both teams sporting a 2nd year QB with Mr. Irrelevant winning the role in San Fran. and Kenny Pickett looking to show that he’s not bang average in Pittsburgh. It should be a cracking contest, the hype around the Steelers is reaching critical mass after their pre-season exploits, they seem like they’ve fixed the offensive line, have some decent targets for Pickett in Johnson, Pickens and maybe even Allen Robinson, although I think he’s washed; Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren look like they may have more of a split than in previous years and Freirmuth has proven himself a very good TE in the league, add to that a strong defense led by TJ Watt and they should be a lot better this year although the play-calling is where Steelers fans still worry.
The road team here have the highest-paid player at a multitude of positions as they signed Nick Bosa to a league-leading deal this week. He leads a strong defense with no real issues through the lines, while Christian McCaffrey is the highest-paid running back in the league and should put on a show this year, although they have said they may limit his work where possible as well, week 1 won’t be it. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are the kings of YAC on offense and while I don’t think Brock Purdy will be able to lead them to the Super Bowl, he showed last year he could do well in the regular season.
Should be a great matchup, although in terms of scoring I’m not convinced. These are two of the better defenses in the league so things could be tighter than we would want to see on Sky in Week 1.
I don’t have a pick on the spread, I do think it’s a little slim to the Steelers so i’d lean to the 49ers covering 2 points, and lean under on the total with the defenses on top.
I doubt you’ll get CmC at Even money many times this year so it seems silly not to recommend him, and I like Aiyuk at nearly 5/2 as well, both on Bet365 and 888
Cincinnati Bengals -2 at Cleveland Browns: 47.5
Joe Burrow got PAID and there was delightful pettiness as that report came out just as the Chiefs game kicked off on Thursday night, 5-years – $275 making him, unsurprisingly, the highest paid QB in the league until the next QB contract comes up (Trevor Lawrence) – It might make things tough in the coming years but this year the Bengals bring back all their offensive stars with Chase, Higgins and Boyd supported by Mixon in the running game, and a little look at Irv Smith who replaces Hayden Hurst. The defense has lost a few pieces but they bring in young, versatile players who can cover, and Chidobe Awuzie returns to lead the CB corps.
The Browns have been fairly quiet this summer, they let Kareem Hunt leave, so Nick Chubb looks like he’ll be 90% of the ground game and they have said they’ll get him more involved through the air as well. Amari Cooper leads that area with Elijah Moore in from the Jets providing versatility, he’s got potential which we didn’t see realised in NY. David Njoku will prove an issue as well. On defense, like most of the AFC North are pretty stacked with Myles Garrett leading the line with Za’darius Smith coming in opposite him. They’ll get pressure and Denzel Ward is one of the best CB’s in the league, he likes playing the Bengals.
The Browns, in fact like playing the Bengals and tend to beat them at least once a year. With Burrow missing the end of training camp I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Browns win in week 1 so I’ll be taking them on the spread, and leaning over on the total.
It might be stupid, but I’ll believe what I’ve heard and take Nick Chubb o13.5 receiving yards – 10/11 (365) and Irv Smith at 3/1 is about the highest I’d go on TD scorers, there’s not a lot jumping out for me there.
Houston Texans +9.5 at Baltimore Ravens: 43.5
The Texans are probably going to have a rough year once more. They have a decent offensive line and Dameon Pierce is one of the best young RBs in the league but outside of him, and up against a strong Ravens defense on the road in Week 1 things will be rough for CJ Stroud.
The Ravens are without Mark Andrews so Isaiah Likely should get his role in this new look attack which we all expect to be more pass-heavy this year with a new OC in place. That should mean decent games for Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman and we’ll see what Odell Beckham has left.
Ravens should win easily, covering 10 points isn’t easy though, and I’ve nothing on the total with the unknowns on the Texans team.
I do like Dameon Pierce though and 5/2 isn’t bad for him to score, but I’ll be betting Dameon Pierce longest rush attempt – o12.5 – We know he’s a strong runner and he should get a lot of the ball.
Carolina Panthers +3.5 at Atlanta Falcons: 39.5
This seems like an automatic OVER situation. Sure the Panthers come in with a rookie QB behind a poor offensive line, but the Falcons don’t look like they’ll be able to generate much passs rush, so Bryce Young should have time, whether he’ll have anyone to throw to is another matter. They have injuries in a WR which wasn’t stacked to start with as DJ Chark misses out and Adam Thielen is banged up. Terace Marshall back in things?! The hype is around rookie Jonathan Mingo and 39.5 isn’t a high line for him. Though they could use Hayden Hurst more as they paid him well to come in from Cinci. I do like the signing of Miles Sanders though and it looks like he’ll get a proper RB1 workload on the ground.
The Falcons look like they’ll be run-heavy again this year, mitigate the lack of elite quality at QB and give Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier a lot of the ball. If they do throw it then the trio of tight ends led by Kyle Pitts look like good targets and Drake London could have a bit of a breakout year.
I like the Falcons this year. So I’ll be taking them to cover the spread, and I do think we see this game go over the low total on board.
I’m tempted by the longest rush market once more here with Allgeier and Bijan at 12.5 and 16.5 respectively. But my small stakes will be going on the TE’s for Atlanta with a little nibble on Jonnu Smith and Mycole Pruitt at 17/2 (Skybet) and 22/1 (PP) respectively
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 at Minnesota Vikings: 46
I have no idea on the Buccss this year. They were poor without Brady last season and I doubt things change much with Baker Mayfield under center, but they don’t get a tough start against a Vikings defense which doesn’t look that great on paper. It makes it tough to judge how Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will do through the air, if Evans plays at all without a new contract… Rachaad WWhite looks like he’ll lead them on the ground and the defense looks strong still so this could be an under game. Surprisingly Baker is 4/5 to throw an interception, that’s definitely of interest.
The Vikings offense looks good, they replaced old Adam Thielen with young Jordan Addison to go alongside Justin Jefferson who looks like he’ll lead the league in yards again, and TJ Hockenson who became the highest-paid TE in the league. It’s a slight change at running back with Dalvin Cook out but Alexander Mattison has filled in well for him when needed and he’ll take the reigns there.
Tough one to call first up, I would have to lean to the Buccs covering it, but I won’t bet that, and under on the total. You can get over 2/1 for TJ Hockenson to score at 888, but if I had one bet on this it’d be Baker Mayfield to throw an interception at 4/5 on Bet365.
Tennessee Titans +3 at New Orleans Saints: 41.5
Another tough one to call. Mike Vrabel is a very good coach and despite the lack of talent on offense in Tennessee we know he’ll get them moving the ball. Tannehill remains under center and Derrick Henry is surely still a beast, so we know what we’ll get from that side of things. Deandre Hopkins came in alongside Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo is someone I’ve been picking up in fantasy leagues all summer at TE for them. They have a decent defense with Justin Simmons looking to get after QBs.
The Saints are tough as well, Derek Carr is an upgrade at QB and the offensive line should protect him. Michael Thomas is apparently back, for now, we’ll see if he’s still able to play after two years not wanting to and Chris Olave is one of the best 2nd year WRs in football. They’re without Kamara for 3 games fso Jamaal Williams gets the start at RB for them and Rashid Shaheed has been blowing up in camp.
The Superdome will be jumping so I’ll lean to the Saints covering, and over on a low total.
Not much betting wise here though, but Foster Moreau at 14s+ to score would be nice after his cancer scare, I do like Rashid Shaheed longest reception – o18.5, he’s a burner and topped that line in 6 of 11 games last year.
Arizona Cardinals +7 at Washington Commanders: 38
The lowest total on the board for a reason, the Cards could be the worst team in recent years. Josh Dobbs starts at QB with Zach Ertz and Hollywood Brown and not much else to throw to, James Conner remains to take the load at running back for them. The fact that the TD market is littered with Commanders players says all you need to know;
The Commanders aren’t even a good team. They’re solid enough and with new OC Eric Bienamy you’d hope they’ll be a bit more fun on offense led by Sam Howell who finished the season well. Terry McLaurin is one of the best WRs in the worst situations, and a breakout is expected from Jahan Dotson in his 2nd year. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson offer depth at RB, Gibson probably getting some slot work as well, but we’ll wait and see on that.
Commanders should win, and should really cover. But that’s not bet-able for me. Antonio Gibson o2.5 recs – 20/21 probably my only look here.
Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 at Indianapolis Colts: 46
The Jags always beat the Colts. The Colts always lose in Week 1. This seems a low spread.
The Jags are usually shit as well but the corner has been turned with Trevor Lawrence leading them, he showed his arm and legs last year and with Calvin Ridley coming back at WR looking like a star it could be even better for them this year in a poor division. Alongside Ridley it looks like Christian Kirk will be more of a slot guy, with Zay Jones outside and Evan Engram is a useful addition at TE. Travis Etienne had a good season at RB but it seems they might lessen his role with Tank Bigsby getting talked up a bit in camp, I do like D’Ernest Johnson as a runner as well but his role seems 3rd choice.
The Colts are not well run, they’re without Jonathan Taylor for at least 4 games so unpolished rookie QB Anthony Richardson starts his career behind the 8-ball. He’s mobile and has a big arm but accuracy lacks. It looks like Deon Jackson leads them on the ground, he did OK when filling in last year and rookie Evan Hull will get some ball as well. WR isn’t good for them Pittman and Pierce are fine but with this QB it might not matter too much. Obviously I love Big Mo, but the Colts don’t seem to know how to use the largest man in the world.
Jags win and cover, nothing on the total. 5/7 for Richardson INT seems fair. His rushing line is 48.5 which is too high for me to take with no video on him. Deon Jackson o9.5 rec yards is low, but again, we don’t know how things will turn out for them.
Miami Dolphins +3 at Los Angeles Chargers: 51
The Sky game for the evening should be a cracker with two of the teams looking to make a real run of things in the AFC this year. I’ve got the Dolphins winning their division and the Chargers pushing the Chiefs close, especially after seeing their rivals falter on Thursday.
Justin Herbert is no longer the highest-paid player in the league but he got his deal and they have retained most of his surroundings as well with Austin Ekeler staying despite not getting his contract, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams having help with Quentin Johnston being drafted although he’s behind Josh Palmer to start the season. Gerald Everett remains at TE as well. It’s a great offense if they’re all healthy. The Chargers defense is stacked as well, so they should be up there, but Chargers gonna Charger seems to ring true each year.
The Dolphins were great while Tua Tagovailoa was under center for them last season and with him starting the year I don’t see why that would be any different this year. Running backs don’t matter and Mike McDaniel is a talented playcaller so the trio of Achane, Ahmed and Mostert will be fine, it’s Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle who stood out last year with their pace and they’ll likely start the season the same way here. They are also strong on defense although without Jalen Ramsey until Christmas by the look of it.
My first thought was to play the over, and despite good defenses I think that still rings true. I don’t have much on the props side of things but I did hear from a Fins fan to look for Chris Brooks for them, 8/1 on Coral/ladbrokes seems his best price. Elijah Dotson looked good in preseason for the Chargers too so keep an eye on his workload if any.
Green Bay Packers +1.5 at Chicago Bears: 41.5
The Packers are underdogs at Soldier Field? Crazy times but with Jordan Love now at QB it’s understandable. He will be protected well and their defense is strong so they have a chance in most games even if he’s not that great, although he did have a good pre-season. They should use Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon more on the ground as one of the best 1-2 duos in the league, but we’ll see whether they do. Christian Watson is out so Romeo Doubs probably leads them at WR, although Jayden Reed had a good summer as well. Luke Musgrave looks like he’ll be a favoured target in the passing game.
The Bears… They’ll run it well with Fields under center and Khlalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson at RB, and they’ve got DJ Moore at WR to add some actual talent to that area with the bums Claypool and Mooney running about a bit as well. They look stronger on paper than last year but will that matter? Has Fields taken the step he needs as a passer?
This game confuses me. I’d be taking the Packers if I had to, but it’s a stay away and I’m not even suggesting any props!
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 at New England Patriots: 44.5
This definitely seems like a trap but this is my favourite spread of the weekend. The Super Bowl runner-up against the worst team in the AFC East with a coach who’s been listening to Olivia Rodrigo all week instead of concentrating on the game? Or maybe that’s the key, his breakup will throw him even more into stopping the Eagles?
The Eagles started the season on fire last year and I think it’s the same here/. Hurts will move the ball at ease, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are a great duo and the bevy of backs they’ve got now is probably stronger than before with Swift, Gainwell and Penny offering differing skills. They’ve retained their strength on both lines and look even deeper on the DL now.
The Patriots have average Mac under center still, their WR corps is “led” by Juju Smith-Schuster who has shown he’s not a 1. The running back room looks good but with Rhamondre Stevenson questionable with an illness could be led by Zeke Elliott tonight. They will have a strong defense but I don’t think it will slow the Eagles.
Eagles win and cover. Nothing on props ass I don’t know how the Eagles backroom will look.
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 at Denver Broncos: 43
I’m not as low on the Raiders as many seem to be but this is a tough start for Jimmy Garoppolo without a whole lot of talent around him. He does know how to get the ball to his favourite guy though and Devante Adams is one of the best in the league when peppered with targets, there’s not much behind him though slot-guuy Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers filling out the WR room and rookie Michael Mayer having to come straight in at TE alongside Austin Hooper. They did keep Josh Jacobs at RB who had a great season last year.
The Broncos were awful last year, truly terrible, but with Sean Payton at head coach that won’t be the story this year. Russell Wilson will be horribly cringey as always but he should at least show some worth on the field this year. Jerry Jeudy may play after a hamstring injury but Courtland Sutton is good to go with Marvin Mims and KJ Hamler offering options as well. It looks like Javonte Williams is good to go coming off an ACL injury with Samaje Perine a good backup to him and rookie Jaleel McLaughlin getting some chatter in recent days of being involved as well. I’m fairly sure Adam Trautman will be the more catch-heavy TE ahead of Greg Dulcich, but that will have to be seen.
I like the Broncos to win but won’t be taking the spread. Lean under a low total. Adam Trautman – 11/2 (888) as a bit of a punt.
Los Angeles Rams +5 at Seattle Seahawks: 46
The debt collectors came calling for the Rams as they got their ring but the all-in nature of their approach has come back to bite them this year. Matthew Stafford is still a good QB but with Van Jefferson as his lead WR things won’t be easy, Tyler Higbee the only other notable name in the passing game although Puka Nacua has had a bit of talk this week. It should mean a lot of attempts for Cam Akers who looked good when returning from his ACL injury last season. On paper their defense seems to rival the Cardinals for worst in the league with Aaron Donald surrounded by bums.
The Seahawks on the other hand are on the up and look like they’ve strengthened around a good core from last year. Zach Charbonnet comes in with Kenneth Walker at RB and Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks like he’ll play despite a broken hand at WR. He’ll be the WR3 behind Lockett and Metcalf in what is now a very strong looking room with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson the main TE’s to look for here.
My second favourite spread of the week. I don’t see how the Rams put up enough points to keep this game within 5. Apparently Charbonnet is 8/1 at Quinnbet if you’ve got that (I don’t) while he’s 13/8 elsewhere. 3/1 at PP seems the highest of the bigger books.
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 at New York Giants: 45
The Sunday action closes out with an NFC East clash which the TV companies weren’t going to ignore as the Cowboys look to put an early marker down in their chase for the division.
The Cowboys have done good business over the summer, they’ve kept most players around and brought in Brandin Cooks to add some top end speed the WR corps, he comes in alongside Ceedee Lamb and Michael Gallup who have shown they’re more than capable at the position. I have been fairly vocal on my concerns for Tony Pollard and the run game this year though, I don’t think he’ll hold up for the whole season with 300 carries, but that won’t affect this game for him, he’s a very talented player on the ground and through the air and looks like an upgrade on the Zeke we saw last season, it looks like Rico Dowdle is the RB2 to start the season. Thye’ve got some good TEs as well, a position Dak Prescott likes to target in th endzone, Jake Ferguson the most adept pass-catcher although Peyton Hendershot scored a couple of times last season at big odds.
The Giants have a strange process, they’ve brought in a lot of similar players to the offense, smaller, slot-types on the whole, so we know which big body is likely to get targeted, Darren Waller comes in from the Raiders to help the middle of the field, he should feast as the main man in that area. Parris Campbell is always interesting to watch but oft injured, Isaiah Hodgins remains from last season as does Darius Slayton who’s the deeper threat for them, and Wan’Dale Robinson seems to have been forgotten by obookies, he’s at larger odds here. Most will be done by Saquon Barkley though who signed a short deal in the summer to stay in NY, and of course Daniel Jones is one of the better running QBs.
I think it’s too short a line for the Cowboys to be honest. The Giants exceeded expectations last year and I think it will come back to normalility a bit this year. Cowboys win and cover. Darius Slayton longest reception o17.5 yards – 20/23 (365) – Despite him being listed as Doubtful, I think double digits for Wan’Dale Robinson is too high, so I’ll have a look at him too 11/1 (PP) if he doesn’t play then it’s refunded anyway.
So, that is it for Sunday Week 1 – I will look to get these out Saturday evening going forward.
Hopefully we start the season with some wins and seeewhere we go from there.
I will say to try and take it easy on spreads and totals today, they’ve been shaped over the last few months by bettors so are the sharpest they’ll be all year.
TouchdownTips 
Leave a comment