Week 2; Sunday Previews; We’ll ignore last week?

A fun week 1 is in the books, but we all know that the season doesn’t start until week 2, so the Bengals still haven’t lost, right? I will admit I didn’t watch a huge amount of football last weekend due to the utter ineptitude on show from my team in Cleveland, I played pool for a few hours with the Full10yards guys in Birmingham so I’m quite looking forward to setting up in front of the TV and watching Redzone for the evening tonight.

It does mean that, I’ll be honest, I’m going a lot off box scores for the piece today, so I apologise in advance for it not being my best work, although I do think I’ve found a few decent prices on players.

As always the DraftKings league is running – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/150347166 – $5 entry – 30 players, top 3 get paid.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 51

First up on Sky this weekend sees the Chiefs, again, who are coming off of 10 days rest after losing the opener to the Lions last Thursday night facing the 1-0 Jaguars who didn’t beat the Colts as easily as I maybe thought they would have done on Sunday night.

The road team welcome back Travis Kelce who’s absence from the team last week probably cost them the game as they had to try and rely on people who couldn’t catch on the night, it gives Mahomes his safety blanket back and let’s be fair there’s no way Kadarius Toney can be as bad as last week so expect a higher scoring Chiefs offense this time around. Clyde Edwards-Helaire seemed to be the starter last week with Pacheco in second and McKinnon strangely out of the game plan on the whole, you’d imagine Pacheco gets the start here, but we shall see. The passing attack wasn’t great without Kelce there, MVS got a few yards and it was spread around the team, but the lack of star talent was rough.

The Jags moved the ball comfortably enough and pre-season was indicative as Calvin Ridley led the team in receptions, yards and rec. TDs as expected, with 101 and a TD on his 8 receptions, this went along with Etienne’s 77 and a TD. The studs turned up in the opener for them. Christian Kirk wasn’t on the field in 2 WR sets, so it looks like it’s Ridley and Zay Jones getting the bulk of the work this year, although Evan Engram had a decent enough debut as well.

This should be a cracking start to the weekend of football, and I think the line is bang on, at 3 points I would be leaning to the Chiefs, if it ticks to 3.5 then I’d go Jags. I do like the over, there should be a lot of points, and the TD price on Toney looks tempting, Andy Reid has taken the blame for putting him out there without much practice and while he couldn’t catch, he was WIDE open a lot. 10/3 at Paddypower the best price on Kad.

Green Bay Packers +1.5 @ Atlanta Falcons: 40

Two teams who looked good in week 1 with the Packers beating up on a probably poor Bears team and the Falcons running all over a shitty Panthers team with their QB making his first start, so how much do we take out of those results?

Jordan Love looked good, as he did in pre-season and it looks like he’ll be finding Luke Musgrave frequently, the tight end was wide open multiple times and seems a favoured target. They may have Christian Watson back but Aaron Jones looks like he’ll miss out giving AJ Dillon a bigger workload than he’d have expected this early in the season. They probably have the best defense in their division and this will be a good test for their run-stopping.

Art Smith’s Falcons had a dream start to the season, they limited the amount Desmond Ridder had to do, their rookie RB scored and Tyler Allgeier got in a couple of times as well at a decent price. It does mean bad things for all pass-catchers on the Falcons, but if the Packers start scoring here they’ll have to throw the ball a little more to try and keep up and we may see how that turns out.

I think we go OVER 40 in this game, both teams seem capable of scoring and, I’d be taking the Packers to get a win on the road as well, but that’s not a bet for me, I think it’s going to be a tight game. I don’t mind the 2/1 on Tyler Allgeier at 888 although it is a fair bit shorter than last week. He’s a good running back.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 @ Buffalo Bills: 47

Jakobi Meyers scored a couple of times for the Raiders on debut as they beat the Broncos in Denver, but he will miss out with concussion, so I guess they’ll throw at Devante Adams even more if they stick to a similar limited offense like last week, the defense they face this week should be easier to move the ball against, but they don’t have a whole lot of talent on the offense so once again it will be interesting to see how they go.

The Bills need to bounce back from losing to Zack Wilson. That result came about in large as Josh Allen threw 3 interceptions to give the game away. He’ll bounce back, although he does give the ball away a hell of a lot, this defense isn’t anywhere near that of the Jets. Stefon Diggs had 100+ and a TD and will again lead the team in everything through the air, it’s interesting to note both TE’s had 4 targets each while James Cook led the team on the ground as expected, although I did think Damien Harris would have got more in that area.

The Bills should get on the board fairly easily here, Over 27 for the Bills? It will be about there. It’s a big spread though, so I’d just lean to the Bills. Damien Harris 13/2 on Coral/Ladbrokes, under 3/1 elsewhere if you think he does get goal-line carries.

Baltimore Ravens +3 @ Cincinnati Bengals: 46.5

I’ve no idea how to call this one. The Bengals were atrocious, probably the worst half of football (yes I only made it to half time) I’ve seen them play in years as Burrow struggled with the weather and probably some calf pain to put up under 100 yards in their loss to the Browns (who I don’t think were THAT good either). The Ravens won easily in a surprisingly even looking game according to the stats, but they lost JK Dobbins for the season, again, which will hurt them going forward.

They have depth on the ground with Justice Hill coming in and snatching two scores and Gus Edwards is usually reliable when called upon as well. Zay Flowers was hyped in camp and led the team with 3x more targets than anyone else, 9 for 78 was his final line. It’s usually the Gus Bus getting the tough yards but Hill got all the redzone carries last week. They do welcome back Mark Andrews for this one after rightly predicting they’d be able to win without him last week.

The Bengals went 0-2 to start last season before winning 13 games, so there’s still hope but they could do without going 2 games down in division immediately. They are obviously good enough to do so, and coming home will surely help. Tee Higgins will get a touch this week I’d imagine, and Burrow tends to enjoy playing the Ravens secondary. Not a whole lot to say about the Bengals really. They shit the bed, they need to bounce back.

There’s no way in hell I’m taking the Bengals to cover, and the total is tough too, either 16-17 or 35-40 each would be my thoughts on it. I do like the around 2/1 on Mark Andrews though, 9/4 at Betway, 11/5 at PP for the more mainstream of you.

Seattle Seahawks +4.5 @ Detroit Lions: 47

The Seahawks were very poor against the Rams while the Lions beat the Super Bowl Champs, do those games mean anything coming into this one? Has the Lions defense improved that much on last year? Will the Seahawks bounce back? Week 2 is a tough time.

Geno threw for 112 yards, at below 10 yards per reception, that’s crap, especially with the talent on the field for him. DK Metcalf found the endzone but needs more against a secondary he should have his way with, I have to think JSN and Lockett will do better and they may go to Dissly and Parkinson a lot more to get Geno into the game. The running back duo only got 15 carries between them as the Seahawks went down early, their offensive line was garbage.

The Lions were fine, they were gifted a win but in fairness, they didn’t do much wrong after an early fumble when driving for the endzone. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a stud and showed it once more, they targeted LaPorta in the middle of the field often and Josh Reynolds looks like the WR2 ahead of Marv Jones who had a poor return. David Montgomery led convincingly on the ground and found the endzone, but they keep saying that they’ll get Gibbs more involved as the season goes on, he looked explosive in his little work.

I’m leaning to the Lions covering, I wasn’t a Geno fan last year, maybe he’s just regressing to the mean. I do like the Lions on the whole, I think this could be a high-scoring game so I’d be leaning over the total.

Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans: 45.5

The Chargers lost a cracker against the Dolphins while the Titans kept things close in NO but lost against the Saints.

The Chargers are without Austin Ekeler this week so Josh Kelley should get most of the ball on the ground although I like Elijah Dotson, who could be backup ahead of Isaiah Spiller, but 11/2 isn’t really worth the risk against a tough Titans defense. The passing game was as expected, mainly Keenan Allen with Ekeler and Williams sharing 10 between them, Dotson may take the pass-catching role? Maybe I’m being a tad ambitious here. They have a few TE’s who can find the endzone as Parham did last week.

The Titans? Tannehill had a terrible game, Derrick Henry is the same guy, Tyjae Spears was on the field for every third down and out-snapped his RB partner which is worth noting. DeAndre Hopkins is questionable for this one, and without him they’re very shallow in the passing game, I would like more than 0 from Chig Okonkwo.

The line didn’t move on the Ekeler news and I do think the Chargers should still outscore their rivals here, but I’m not good at predicting a horrible to watch Titans team. I’d lean Chargers covering and under on the total. Tyjae Spears at 13/2 (888) isn’t a bad longshot as they may well be trailing and chasing the game.

Chicago Bears +2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 41

The Bears don’t look too improved despite the addition of DJ Moore although they did play a probably good Packers defense. I’m not convinced Tampa are that good either but if Baker Mayfield can be competent then they should be able to win games like this as they did last week against the Vikings.

Justin Fields actually had a decent completion percentage last week and rushed for 59 yards to lead the team on the ground, so maybe all is not lost for them. They will want more than 2 targets for DJ Moore and probably won’t want Roschon Johnson to lead the team in targets (along with Mooney and Kmet) but a lot of Johnsons work was in garbage time as they chased the game. Khalil Herbert was the starting RB and should be for now.

My opinion didn’t change that much on week 1. I don’t rate the Bears or the Buccs, but the home team here have more talent on both sides so I’ll be taking them to cover the -2.5. It’s down from last week but I don’t mind the 9/2 (Paddypower) on Johnson, there is an 11/2 on LiveScoreBet.

Indianapolis Colts +1 @ Houston Texans: 39.5

Another divisional clash as the Colts kept up their record of losing their opening games of the season, but they looked all right with Anthony Richardson passing the ball. The Texans don’t seem to have been as bad as the final score against the Ravens.

Anthony Richardson peppered his most experienced receiver with Michael Pittman catching 8 of his 11 targets for 97 and a TD, he may well be the man going forward although I do expect more from Alec Pierce. They will have Zack Moss back at RB after his broken arm and that will surely be better than Deon Jackson’s crazy 13 for 14 yards on the ground. Richardson rushed for 40 yards and a TD and that may well be a baseline for him going forward.

CJ Stroud threw 44 times in his debut game, despite the game being 6-7 at the break, that surely won’t be the way going forward, most of his attempts went to Collins and Wood who had 11 and 10 respectively, not too surprising given the last of talent there. Dameon Pierce needs to be more involved and should be.

This could be a high-scoring game with two rookies facing each other against poor defenses, so I’ll be taking o39.5 on it, and I’ll lean to the Colts winning. 11/5 on Zack Moss isn’t bad, he did score against the Texans last year.

San Francisco 49ers -7.5 @ Los Angeles Rams: 45

My favourites for the NFC, the 49ers started their season in enjoyable fashion by smashing the Steelers, they were better on both sides of the ball and with Christian McCaffrey have probably the best weapon in the league. The Rams on the other hand I thought would STINK, but they easily dealt with the Seahawks with Nuka Pukua getting 15 targets and 2nd string RB Kyren Williams scoring a couple of times.

This is the first time the QBs have been a 1st overall pick and the final pick of the draft.

The 49ers may be the best roster in the league, they don’t really have anything missing on either side of the ball; CMC is the best RB in the league, Kittle, Deebo and Aiyuk are a great trio of pass-catchers, their defense is stacked with Nick Bosa getting pressure up front, they should, in theory be 7 point faves for a lot of games this year. Aiyuk was my guy to score last week and he notched up a double and is 15/8 to score again this week.

I don’t know what to make of the Rams then, I thought they’d struggle to 5 wins this year, but Matthew Stafford is still very good, Cam Akers a reasonable RB, apparently Puka is a decent WR and Aaron Donald, it turns out, can do everything by himself. Will they be able to do it again against a far better team? I’m not so sure, they have lost 8 in a row against the 49ers now and that probably won’t change tonight.

I can’t take the 49ers covering over a TD, but they probably will do, no thoughts on the total. Aiyuk TD – 15/8 (PP) – I’ll probably keep taking him at near 2/1.

New York Giants -4 @ Arizona Cardinals: 38.5

I was up until 4am in Birmingham last week watching the Giants shit the bed, it wasn’t nice. The Cardinals though were surprisingly spunky against the Commanders, this could be a horrible game to watch.

On the plus side for the Giants, things can’t get much worse this week and playing a tanking side is a good way to get your first win of the season. Who would have thought having a roster with no WR1 would prove an issue? Expect Saquon to have a big game here with 25+ carries, Waller a handful of targets and the odd deep shot to the others.

The Cardinals don’t have much on offense either. Josh Dobbs isn’t very good, their WR corps is poor and James Conner isn’t a great RB although will get the full workload.

Giants should win and cover, but I thought Wash. would last week and they didn’t, so no bet on that for me, under on the total?

New York Jets +8.5 @ Dallas Cowboys: 38.5

The late Sky game gives us the joy of seeing Zach Wilson play football. The league wanted to stuff in as many Aaron Rodgers games as they possibly could and he lasted 4 snaps of the season before snapping his achilles, so now we get a ton of Jets prime time games with Wilson at QB. They did still win the game last week because their defense is outstanding. The Cowboys stuffed the Giants in a walkover which did nothing for the offensive stats of most of their players, Pollard with 2 rushing TDs the obvious highlight there.

So what do we expect of the Jets? Cook will likely lead the carries he and Hall were 60/40-ish last week, Hall had a big run to look the far better of the two, the passing game? Well Garrett Wilson is good, although 14 completions in that win makes it tough to figure much out. They’ll try and dominate on defense and keep games close.

The Cowboys don’t have much on tape either really, another strong defense in the opener, Dak Prescott didn’t have to do anything, so didn’t, Ceedee Lamb and Michael Gallup are a good duo, Cooks a good addition although he’s questionable for this one and the TE’s usually get endzone targets. Ferguson had 5 redzone targets last week (only catching 1) but they clearly like him there. Tony Pollard looked great in an effective win.

A defensive slogfest on the cards, line has come down slightly from 9 earlier in the week. The Jets shouldn’t score more than 14. Can the Cowboys hit 23 to cover? Maybe, but I’m not taking anything on this. UnLeaning under on the total, of course. Jake Ferguson o2.5 receptions – 4/6 (Sky/PP)

Washington Commanders +3.5 @ Denver Broncos: 38.5

The Commanders opened with a win against a poor Cardinals team taking Sam Howell to 2-0 as a starter while the Sean Payton Broncos lost to the Raiders in a disappointing match for them. I must admit I didn’t pay much attention to either game.

I thought Antonio Gibson would be effective but it turns out that was hype, Brian Robinson scored the receiving TD as well as doing everything on the ground for the Commies while Howell rushed in for a score at around 4/1, tight end Logan Thomas led the team in targets as the position tends to do with inexperienced QBs. McLaurin and Dotson are a fairly good duo if things start to click in the passing game.

I don’t know what to make of the Broncos, Samaje Perine shouldn’t be leading the team in receiving yards. Greg Dulcich has gone to IR which makes Adam Trautman more usable for betting purposes, I do like him. Jerry Jeudy should return tonight and led the team through the air, Sutton, it seems, just isn’t that good. Javonte Williams didseem to share the backfield 60/40 with Perine who looks like a good pickup for them.

Not a game I’ll be paying much attention to, but I’d be leaning Broncos covering and ignoring the total. Things will click for Payton at some point, but I doubt it will be here. Adam Trautman o2.5 receptions – 20/23 (365/Skybet) he’s 6/1 at 88 and 11/2 at Skkybet for a TD if you want to be a bit more expansive as well.

Miami Dolphins -2.5 @ New England Patriots: 46.5

The weekend closes out with the free-scoring Dolphins travelling to the NE tundra to take on the Patriots who lost by 5 points to the Eagles last week, looking better than I thought they would do.

I would be shocked if Tua could throw for over 400 yards against this week but with Tyreek Hill on the field it’s definitely possible, just get the ball to him in space, and on time and he can take it in from anywhere, Bill Belichick does try to take away the biggest threat though, so he won’t have it as easy tonight as he did against the Chargers. Jaylen Waddle can do it too though if he’s over his abductor strain and other than that there’s a few bit-part players on offense for them. Raheem Mostert led them on the ground although they only had 15 rush attempts between them, he found the endzone.

Mac Jones. 316 yards and 3 TDs, I wasn’t expecting that with the players he’s got around him, Kendrick Bourne had a couple and Rhamondre Stevenson overcame his illness to hit 64 yards as well as lead the team on the ground, that’s what happens when you’re 16 points down in a quarter, the same may happen here too, so it could be surprisingly good for Patriots pass-catchers. I guess led again by Bourne, although the tight ends recevied a lot of targets as well with Hunter Henry finding the endzone, Mike Gesicki at 9/2 and above looks a little tempting.

I have to take the Dolphins covering the 2.5, they seem to be able to out-score everyone and I doubt the Pats can contain Tyreek enough to stop that. Let’s lean over on the total as well and hope for fun to close out the night. Stevenson o24.5 rec. yards looks a fair line, I was hoping for double-digits on Kayshon Boutte but he’s at 6/1 so I’ll leave that for this week, who had two redzone targets last week.