After a hiatus last week as I was on the beautiful island of Hvar, enjoying a belated 40th birthday trip with the lads, I return with my full preview of the Week 4 games, and this weekend I might actually be able to fully settle down and watch the entirety of redzone for the first time all season, normality may finally be restored.
The Dolphins could have set the record for points scored in the NFL last week after dropping 70 on the putrid Broncos, they face the Bills this week in what will be a far more taxing test for them, the Eagles and 49ers are the two other unbeaten teams as we enter October and both look fairly unstoppable at the moment and at the other end of things all four of the 0-3 teams face off against each other this week as the Vikings, Panthers, Broncos and Bears take their fields.
I’m giving the London game a miss this week but I’ll be making my first trip to Spurs Stadium next week for the Bills v Jags matchup.
As always my DraftKings contest is open and ready for someone to take my money as I’ve been utterly shambolic doing them so far this year – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/151293684
Falcons +3 v Jaguars (Wembley): 42.5
The frequent flyers host the dirty birds as the international series kicks off and this year for the Jags it’s the first of two successive games as they face the Bills at Spurs stadium next week which should benefit them coming into that game. It’s the 10th time to Jags have come over while the Falcons visit for the 2nd time in 3 years after a rare Kyle Pitts TD helped them beat the Jets 27-20 at Spurs.
The Falcons have their style and they need to hope the game-flow allows them to stick to it, run the ball with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and they’re pretty darn good, have to alter that and have Desmond Ridder throw the ball more and things are a little less certain for them. As a Cincinnati fan who watched a fair bit of the Bearcats in college I like Ridder but his deficiencies are showing up too often in the NFL. He should be able to find Drake London and Kyle Pitts with regularity but that doesn’t happen enough with Pitts continuing to disappoint fantasy players and bettors with production which doesn’t match his talent. They have improved on defense with their many signings so at least that area of the field looks imrpoved on last year.
The Jaguars have flattered to decieve so far and losing (comprehensively) to the Texans last weekend took them to 1-2 on the season, a spot where favourites for a poor division will be disappointed to find themselves in. On the field things look like they should be better, Calvin Ridley is a good WR1, Travis Etienne a decent RB1 and Trevor Lawrence should find himself around the top 10 QBs in the league but they have struggled finding the endzone and the loss of Zay Jones for the last two weeks seems to have hit them (something I never thought I’d say) – Evan Engram found the endzone for them last year and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him repeat that in this one. I do probably need a quick mention of Tank Bigsby who seems to be living up to his name by getting the goal-line rushes, he’s 17/4 best price to score today.
I have a weird recolection of London games that TE’s always seem to score, I don’t know if it’s just because Marcedes Lewis scored a hat-trick all those years ago, and he did in fact score again last year as one of the three TEs to score in each of the three games played in London last season. You’re looking at around 11/4 at PaddyPower/Betfair for Evan Engram TD, I am of course, looking at Pruitt and Smith for the Falcons as well, but I won’t be putting them down as official bets – For the game as a whole we (Full10Yards) have been pretty hot on Falcons overs and been let down so I’m not going near the total. Jags should cover the spread but both these teams have been frustrating so far. Jags 24-20 Falcons.
Dolphins +3 @ Bills: 53.5
Sky couldn’t have got this week wrong at least, as the first match sees a cracking matchup between the two teams challenging for the AFC East. The Dolphins come in on fire at 3-0 while the Bills stomped on Washington last week to take themselves to 2-1.
Everything in me knows that this is a trap, that to back the hot, new team on the road against a familiar rival is stupid. It is, I know it is, but I don’t think it’s going to stop me thinking the Dolphins will win. They are well coached and with the released of De’von Achane last week look like they have a good 1-2 punch with him and Mostert at running back, of course things won’t be as easy as last week as I do think the Broncos are terrible, but I think they’ll move the ball well and Tua Tagovailoa has done well getting the ball out quickly to Tyreek Hill et al down the field, Around the NFL said this week that Tua has the quickest release in the league, but also the deepest aDot, which seems fairly absurd. If Hill is stopped then they’ll be happy for the return of Jaylon Waddle who is back after missing last week, which is probably a relief for them as they don’t really have much else in the passing game. Defensively they’re not stellar and will do well to slow a Bills team who look like they’ve started to click this year.
The Bills never looked in trouble at Washington last week although it took till the 4th quarter to nail down the win for them. Josh Allen has been typically him really, some brilliant plays, some stupid, but overall one of the better QBs in the league and his connection with Stefon Diggs has started well with 279 yards for Diggs so far this season after another ton last weekend and Gabriel Davis is the same guy as we know as well, will turn up with big play TDs. They play more 2 TE sets than any other team in the league with Kincaid and Knox on the field and that has helped their running game with James Cook getting a lot of touches early in the season and Latavius Murray and Damien Harris getting on the field when things get close to the goal-line. I’ve never been as high on the Bills defense as most seem to be, I don’t rate Tre’Davious White at all and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Hill burning past all of them.
This should be a brilliant game to kick off the evening, I rate both offenses highly and the defenses not so highly so there should be a lot of points on offer, the weather looks like it’s fine in Buffalo so we’re all good for a fun shoot-out! As always I think Damien Harris is over-priced at 11/2, he has had 12 touches over the last two weeks and found the endzone with one of them, I will say they were in blowouts which makes it easier to give your bit-part players a go, but I do think he should be closer to the 7/2 or so of Lat Murray. I like the Dolphins to win outright and as much as it goes against logic probably under on a no-doubt inflated total after last week and with money flowing on the over all week. Josh Allen o36.5 rush yards – He steps up on the ground in big games.
Ravens +2.5 @ Browns: 38.5
I’ll get through the rest of the previews a little quicker, the Ravens take on a divisonal rival as underdogs on the road after a shock loss to the Colts last week, they did control that game fairly well but things just went wrong for them. They’re struggling at WR with Beckham and Bateman missing again so Zay Flowers is the boy with Mark Andrews and he probably getting 15+ targets between them, Agholor maybe a long-shot for a TD if you want to get crazy. With the veracity of the Browns pass rush so far, Lamar Jackson rush attempts could be a good over as well as he scrambles away from pressure.
The Browns defense has been dominant and with Nick Chubb out they are looking away from the run game a little as Deshaun Watson had his best game as a Brown last week and Amari Cooper should have finished with a doulbe after having one ruled out. He looks good and they keep trying to get Elijah Moore into the game. Jerome Ford has stepped up well with Chubb out for probably 12 months now, and Kareem Hunt will be more involved today now he’s back in the building.
It’s a low total for a reason, the Browns have destroyed some poor OL’s so far this year and may do the same here with the Ravens having injuries there. It should be the Browns in a low scoring game. Zay Flowers o4.5 receptions – 5/6 (Bet365)
Bengals -2.5 @ Titans: 41
The Bengals finally got off the snide on Monday with their defense stepping up against the Rams while the Titans look putrid on offense but good on defense so another low total seems sensible.
The Bengals OL has been improved so far this year with Burrow taking a third of the sacks he had by this time last season but his lack of mobility and confidence is affecting his passing which seems to be floated a lot more than it should. Ja’marr Chase had a huge game on Monday and will find the endzone eventually, it looks like Tee Higgins is fine to go after coming out of the game last week and Joe Mixon has looked the best he has in a while at RB. The defense has been very good again and has done well vs. Henry in recent matchups.
Ryan Tannehill is getting killed behind the Titans OL, they can’t get Henry going, and with an aging Deandre Hopkins as the main target things don’t come easily for them on that side of the ball. The Browns killed them last week and gave the Bengals a good blueprint of what to do here. Tyjae Spears has seen the field a lot and will put in a big game eventually, hopefully for me, not here.
I like the Under, the Bengals aren’t clicking properly on Offense and the Titans don’t seem to be able to at all, both defenses should do well here. Bengals to win and cover.
Broncos -3 @ Bears: 46.5
From two of the better defenses in the league to two of the worst, the Bears was expected but the decline of the Broncos D has been stark, they have been a shambles.
For what it’s worth at 0-3, Russell Wilson has looked a lot better this year with Courtland Sutton starting the season well and Marvin Mims showing his explosivity in the passing game and on special teams. Javonte Williams has been fine, the lack of targets for my boy Adam Trautman seems strange though.
There was hope that Justin Fields would step up with DJ Moore coming in, but if anything they’ve been worse this year as they, for some reason, have restricted his designed running plays so far. I don’t want to talk much more about a terrible roster that’s badly coached.
Broncos should win here and it may well be a horribly fun game to watch with chaos ensuing evverywhere. Take the over.
Rams +1 @ Colts: 45.5
The Rams lost to the Bengals on Monday night after losing their LT during the game and their protection of Matthew Stafford fell apart while the Colts won in Baltimore with Gardner Minshew under center.
Can the Rams bounce back? They should have Cooper Kupp back next weekend and he alongside Puka Nakua who has set all types of records for targets and receptions in his first three games could be fun. Tutu Atwell is showing up as the deep threat and the run game looks adequate with Kyren Williams taking the helm there.
The Colts welcome back Anthony Richardson at QB and I, personally, think that will be enough for them to win here. Zack Moss looks like he’s actually all right, although imagining what JT could do in this offense is painful. Moss had 30 for 122 on the ground last week and scored their TD with a reception as well. Pittman and Downs the favoured targets for the QBs.
I like the Colts to win and Richardson anytime TD – 7/5 (Bet365) the best price available.
Vikings -4.5 @ Panthers: 46.5
The two other winless teams take each other on in Carolina with uncertainty at QB the confusing thing here.
The Vikings contrived to lose at the end of the game last week against the Chargers, they’ve looked fine but after 13 close wins last year it looks like things have switched and they’ve lost games this year instead. Justin Jefferson leads the league in rec. yards and found the endzone last week, you’d imagine Cam Akers will be invovled this week as Alexander Mattison hasn’t looked great on the ground, and TJ Hockenson will be the second target for them with KJ Osborn chipping in too.
Andy Dalton filled in well last week with deep passes looking nicer, but Bryce Young returns here and that puts me off anything on their side of the ball. Adam Thielen led the team last week after Jonathan Mingo went off with concussion. DJ Chark provided some deep threat and Miles Sanders get off the mark at running back.
Vikings should win and cover, but they never do things easily so I’m not going near the spread. Cam Akers – 10/3 (WillHill) is taking a bit of a punt on his invovlement but if he gets 10 touches he’ll be close to finding the endzone.
Steelers -3 @ Texans: 42
The Steelers scraped a win in Vegas last week while the Texans stuffed the Jags, this will be a proper test for CJ Stroud who looks like the best rookie QB so far this season.
The Steelers offense still hasn’t got off the ground (BLAME CANADA) although missing Diontae Johnson probably isn’t helping things Pickens hasn’t exploded as many would have expected (shock) but he and Friermuth have been fine with what little comes their way. It looks like they are finally losing patience with Najee Harris not being very good and moving to a more 60/40 split between he and Jaylen Warren. Defensively they’re outstanding once more uwith Alex Highsmith and TJ Watt dominating up front. That’s the game today.
CJ Stroud has 906 yards on the season after another 280 last week and has made a good connection with Tank Dell and Nico Collins, he’s been protected well and moved in the pocket to extend plays when needed. They will want more from Damien Pierce who’s struggled on the ground so far, 14 for 31 yards last week is not good, and this is technically a decent matchup for him.
A tough one to call, but the Steelers D is the highlight of the game and that may be enough to get them the win here, although I can’t take them as a favourite. Leaning under on the total. I’m tempted to risk o47.5 rush yards for Pierce.
Buccaneers +3.5 @ Saints: 40
We were looking forward to a Jameis Winston revenge game here but reports this morning sound like Carr may make it through concussion protocol and play this NFC South 2-1 battle.
The Buccs were killed by arguably the best team in the league last week and they struggled to move the ball, this will be a test for them as well against a good Saints defense. Mike Evans has been a star for them still with 17 receptions, 297 yards and 3 TDs this year, safe to say Baker will be looking towards him a lot once more, behind Evans it’s scrappy. Rachaad White is the guy on the ground but isn’t doing much with his chances. They do still have a decent defense though.
Carr or Winston, Carr has a higher floor, Winston probably a higher ceiling, but he could shit the bed completely, either way they’ll benefit from Alvin Kamara returning tonight as the run game hasn’t looked great. Chris Olave is a star and they’ve got options outside of him with Thomas in the short game and Shaheed down the field.
The Saints are the better team but I don’t want them giving 3.5 points. Probably lean under on a low total.
Commanders +8.5 @ Eagles: 43
The biggest spread of the early games sees a Commanders team coming off a thumping take on the best team in the league, what could go wrong?
Sam Howell had the worst game of his short career last week with 4 interepctions, he can’t be that bad again, surely? They had looked quite spunky until last week with Brian Robinson looking good and Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson fine in the passing game, but trailing the game they went Antonio Gibson heavy, at least in snaps, if not production.
The Eagles continue to dominate against poor teams and should do the same here Jalen Hurts will be pushed in for a TD, they’ll try and get AJ Brown at least one after his scroreless start to the season and D’Andre Swift should do well once more as he’s been a stud on the ground so far this year. The Washington defense has played hard and is probably the better of their groups so things might not go entirely the Eagles way.
The Eagles should win and cover, but the Commies pulled off a shock win against the Eagles last year, and divisional games are weird. 11/8 AJ Brown anytime TD (WillHill) and I’d be temtped with a bit on 2+ as well.
Patriots +6 @ Cowboys: 43.5
The late Sky game sees Zeke go back to Jerrahworld? Not sure that should be the main storyline really, but here we are. The Patriots are 1-2, facing a Cowboys team who fell back to earth by losing to the Cardinals last weekend.
The Pats haven’t been too bad but have had a tough start to the season and this won’t be much easier than what they’ve faced so far, they are of course good on defense and the offense has been adequate, although I still don’t rate Mac Jones. Kendirck Bourne and Hunter Henry seem the favoured targets so far but they’ll want more on the ground from Stevenson and Zeke who had a fairly even split last weekend. Zeke will want to get on the scoresheet in this one espeically.
The Cowboys are the Chargers of the NFC, lots of talent but there’s always a fuckup on the horizon. Dak clearly loves Jake Ferguson so he’s a guy I’ll be looking at again and Ceedee Lamb probably being the guy Belichick focuses on may mean a bit less for him. Tony Pollard continues to look great on the ground as the main back though and his spark will help.
Cowboys should win and cover, but I can’t take them. Jake Ferguson o3.5 receptions at 23/20 (Bet365) looks like it could be the best bet of the evening, he’s had 7,4,7 targets in their first 3.
Raiders +6.5 @ Chargers: 48
Jimmy G misses out for a poor looking Raiders team who take on the Chargers who had someone out-Charger them at the end of the game last week.
It should be Aidan O’Connell for the Riaders but they’ll probably staert Brian Hoyer at QB. Either way it’s not good for them on offense, Josh Jacobs probably getting more touches than he has done so far this year and Devante Adams morale continuing to worsen despite his 20 (TWENTY) targets last week.
The Chargers really should be better than they are but the loss of Mike Williams of rhte season last week will make things tougher for them, they’ll need rookie Quentin Johnston to step up quicker than they’d have liked. Keenan Allen has been fantastic so far and will look to carry that on while Donald Parham keeps, annoyingly stealing TDs from everyone else. Austin Ekeler is officially doubtful so will probably miss again meaning their run game won’t be good.
Chargers should win and cover, but they’re probably the least trustworthy team in the league, so that’s a no. Under on the total please.
Cardinals +14 @ 49ers: 43.5
Can Josh Dobbs not get any respect?! He ran for 55 and threw for 189 last week against the Cowboys in their shock win, but he faces one of the top 3 teams in the league here who are stacked on both sides of the ball.
The Cards have looked interesting in all their games so far, Dobbs can run and pass the ball, James Conner is probably the best he has been for the Cards and they are some how making things work enough to put up some points, they face the best defense they have all year tonight though so we’ll see.
The 49ers are dominant on both sides of the ball, Christian McCaffrey is probably the best player in the league, Deebo Samuel should be playing as should Brandon Aiyuk after missing last week through injury. With Elijah Mitchell unlikely to play, Jordan Mason may get some touches as they should be able to rest Cmc again here.
49ers should win and do it easily, but I can’t take two TDs on the spread. Lean over on the total, Cards have been spunky.
Chiefs -8.5 @ Jets: 41.5
At least there’s no need to stay up for the late game this wee as the leagues obsession with Aaron Rodgers continues to hurt the prime time games.
The Chiefs are the Chiefs, they continue to win every game with the best QB under center and he’ll spread the ball around with Kelce his main man. What they do at RB is the only real interest here for a neutral as they are mixing it up there too with Pacheco, McKinnon and CEH.
Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle or Trevor Siemian, what a choice for the Jets. Either way they won’t be able to move the ball through the air, Hall and Cook might be able to get something going on the ground but life is tough for that side of the ball in NY and the defense may start getting pissed offf sooner rather than later.
Chiefs win and cover? They’ll need 20 points to cover the spread really and I doubt even a defense as good as the Jets can hold them under 20.
Enjoy the games tonight, and I hope the London game is entertaining for all those going to it.
TouchdownTips 
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