A strange week in the NFL where there were a lot of wins by a considerable number, the London game was a write-off as Desmond Ridder shit the bed, the Bills ran out impressive winners in a game that I KNEW was a trap against the Dolphins, the Ravens stomped on DRT, the rookie QB of the Browns and the Titans destroyed an awful, awful Bengals team as Derrick Henry got back in the groove. The late games saw the Cowboys hand out the biggest defeat of Bill Belichick’s career and the Seahawks rounded off the weekend by killing Daniel Jones and the Giants.
There were close games as well, the Rams and Colts, Eagles and Commanders both went to over-time and the Chiefs snuck to another win over the Jets on Sunday evening, their defense arguably being the most impressive area of them so far, or the compliance of the referee’s…
On to Week 5 though, I’ll be at the Tottenham Stadium for the first time tomorrow to watch the Bills take on the Jaguars, if you spot a midget in a Dalton salute to service jersey, then give me a tap on the shoulder, I would say buy me a drink but I’ll be driving and hopefully home to watch the Bengals lose to the Cardinals at the start of the evening kick-offs.
Amazingly we’re already on Bye weeks with the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks and Buccaneers taking the week off.
As always the DraftKings contest is up and running – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/151730728 – 5 bucks entry!
Jaguars +5.5 vs. Bills: 48.5
For the first time ever a team is having two games in a row in London, so this will be a big test of whether travel and rest time are as important as many make out. The Jags spending the week in the UK must surely have a positive effect for them as they look to build on their win over the Falcons last weekend. It is a different stadium, one which should play more like they are accustomed to in the US, so it will be interesting to see how they deal with this match-up.
Trevor Lawrence and his team still look a little disjointed on offense, Etienne has been fine, Lawrence has been fine, they could really do with Zay Jones returning as he seems to add something that TLaw likes in the passing game. Ridley only recorded 2 receptions last week as they focused on Evan Engram and Christian Kirk in the shorter game, so it will be interesting to see who they go for this weekend. The Bills are very good at linebacker so they may well concentrate on matchups vs. the Bills CB’s with Tre’Davious White out for the season.
The Bills are coming off a storming win over the Dolphins and frankly should be 4-0 coming into this trip across the sea. As always in the regular season they look like they’re going to sweep away most opponents and realistically with a new, more balanced offense with James Cook looking good on the ground and Allen doing his usual through the air with Stefon Diggs blowing up last weekend, looking like he’s settled again after some off-season shenanigans. Gabriel Davis has chipped in with his usual work and the double tight ends of Knox and Kincaid have looked good as well.
Realistically this should be a fairly comfy Bills win, but will the travel even things out a bit? Games at Spurs tend to be more alike to the States, so there should be a lot of points in this one. I’d lean to the Bills covering and over on the points. Trev Lawrence o15.5 rush yards – 5/6.
Giants +12.5 @ Dolphins: 47.5
A weird, stinking, heap of crap for the Sky game for the evening, so I’m glad I’m at Spurs and won’t be watching this one, proof if any was needed that Neil Reynolds single-handedly picks the Sky games and we should all @ him on Twitter/X to express our displeasure.
There’s really not a lot to say about this game really, the Giants have kyboshed themselves on offense and unless Saquon Barkley comes back I don’t see how they’re going to hit more than 14 points. Daniel Jones has shown he can’t do much on his own and the WR corps is filled with similar heaps of dung. Matt Breida can’t be a 1. They’re boned.
The Dolphins need to bounce back from their loss to the Bills last week and get a gimme here to be able to do that, they really should spread the ball around a bit more than just giving it to Hill every play, but it’s their ground game which I think I need to focus on. De’von Achane – 8chan, scored twice again last week and his 50-yard run took him over 100 last week as well, he’s down at 50.5 this week, but he’s now above the 46.5 of Mostert on the ground.
Should be a walkover for the Dolphins, obviously I won’t take this spread but they could do as they have done to shit all year and murder them. I’ll be taking o50.5 rush yards on De’Von Achane and around Evens for a TD seems good too.
Ravens -4.5 @ Steelers: 38
Wooo, AFC North FOOTBAWL! – These games are usually hard fought and decided by 3 points or so, but this year, if that happens, the Ravens need to ask some serious questions. They should win this game by considerably more than 5 points against an offense that even when fully healthy has been struggling to put up points.
The Ravens may have Ronnie Stanley back at LT, but have more injury woes on the OL, that doesn’t seem to matter too much to Lamar Jackson though as his dual-threat ability has been on show for most of this early season. They don’t have the best targets to throw to, Mark Andrews likely leading targets once more, they could have Odell and Bateman back who both trained this week, which would help and there’s some chatter around the rookie Keaton Mitchell at RB with not much talent left standing at that spot but we’ll wait and see on him.
It, somehow, looks like Kenny Pickett is looking to start this week after what looked a serious injury last week turned into a bone bruise, whether that’s the right move is beyond me, I tend to think Trubisky would be a better alternative but let’s all just keep blaming Canada, eh? The offensive line is supposed to be better now, the supporting cast should be good, but the one area, as always we can rely with the Steelers is the defense where TJ WAtt and Alex Highsmith have been incredible once more.
All signs point to an under in this one, but the bookies know that and it’s a low total. The Ravens should cover this but these games do tend to be tight so it’s not something I’d bet on. Jaylen Warren o2.5 receptions – 8/11 (SkyBet)
Panthers +9.5 @ Lions: 44
The Panthers are surely planning for the future by playing Bryce Young every week regardless of the fact it lowers their chances to win? They have a 97-yard pick 6 to start the game last week and still predictably lost. The Lions marched on with a comfy win over the Packers in Green Bay with Monty racking up a hat-trick, that 5.5 line over the summer looking ridiculous already.
I don’t see how the Panthers win any games this year to be honest, they can’t run-block so that hampers them a lot on the ground, they don’t have any weapons and Bryce Young looks like a gnat back there at QB for them. It’s not pretty and I don’t see how it will get much better for them. The Lions have one of the best run defenses in the league so far as well, so Sanders and Hubbard probably won’t be able to add too much help.
The Lions have looked good after beating the Chiefs in the opener and come in at 3-1 off of extended rest, although the addition of St. Brown and Gibbs to the injury report on Friday is a worry for their offense. It looks like St. Brown could miss out which hurts them but the return of Jameson Williams off of suspension should help the passing game over the season. Kaliff Raymond will be the downfield threat but the real beneficiary here should be Sam Laporta at TE who’s been on fire in his rookie year.
Lions should win and cover, but again, it’s a big spread. go under on the total, I can’t see the Panthers hitting anything over 14. Laporta Receptions would be my bet, but with confusion over who’s playing there’s no line on Saturday night. I’m fine with o4.5 on him when the lines appear.
Texans +1.5 @ Falcons: 41.5
Well, don’t I look stupid! CJ Stroud and the Texans have arguably been the surprise of the season after a nice win over the Steelers last week took them to 2-2, you can still get them and the Colts both at 5/1 for the division, one that looks a lot more open than many thought. The Falcons come home from London to take on a potentially tricky opponent.
Stroud have been slinging it all over the park and they may have got the run game going last week as well, although the Steelers run d is poop. Stroud has at least 2 passing TDs in his last 3 games and his minimum yards passing has been 242 in week one, he’s settled into the league very well with Tank Dell and Nico Collins proving they can do well with a decent QB. Dameon Pierce had his best game of the early season and will look to step up once more in this one.
The Falcons got Bijan Robinson going at the end of last week and he’ll surely take more of a 70/30 split of touches from the backfield now which is the area they will concentrate on after Ridder threw the game away last weekend in London. It looks like they’ll be sticking with Ridder regardless of his issues on the field, so that probably takes away from all the passing game, although Jonnu Smith had a surprisingly good game last weekend.
I said the Texans was my favourite spread on the Full10Yards betting podcast on Thursday so I’ll stick with that, I think they win outright.
Saints +1 @ Patriots: 39
Alvin Kamara returned last week and showed why PPR fantasy scoring is fucking stupid, 13 receptions for 33 yards and 11 for 51 on the ground gave him a monster score without actually achieving anything against a good Buccs defense, he’ll have a better game here. Chris Olave is the 1, Michael Thomas is chipping in a bit and as always Shaheed is the deep threat. Their defense is still rather good.
I hate the Partiots and what they’re putting out on the field. Mac Jones isn’t good, Stevenson and Elliott should be OK, strangely enough Juju isn’t a 1, so they’re just littered with very average players on offense. However, they do have a very good defense so should keep it tight at least.
I like the Saints getting points, they should win out-right in my opinion, and the under is the right side to lean but it’s low.
Titans -2.5 @ Colts: 43
The Titans looked great dismantling the Bengals last week, they got home constantly and showed imagination on offense as well with Henry looking like the beast we know. The Colts came back from way behind, but lost in Overtime with Anthony Richardson finishing the game for the first time.
The Titans pass rush should be able to cause trouble again but they’re playing a QB with mobility this week so probably won’t be as effective, they will need to get Henry going again and if they kept some plays hidden away might be able to move the ball?
I am, for some reason, quite fond of the Colts this year, I like what Anthony Richardson has brought to the table and the return of Jonathan Taylor, with a fat wallet, will make their run game even better. He could have hit 500 yards and 5 TDs by now if he’d started the season, he will be on a snap count so I’m away from him betting-wise, but it will be fun to see how he does. Pittman the target leader once more, but really it’s the ground game where they excel and that won’t be easy against this defense.
Titans have one of the best run D’s in the league, that could be the key. I still like the Colts getting points, and I’d say under on the total.
Eagles -4 @ Rams: 50.5
I’m not sure I’ll back against the Eagles all season, they’ve continued the regular season where they left off last year although it did take overtime to beat the Commanders last week. The Rams stormed out to a big lead, let the Colts comeback and then killed them in OT and this week welcome back Cooper Kupp from IR who will surely take the lead at WR.
The Eagles are arguably the best team on both OL and DL, have a dual-threat QB and in AJ Brown andtrue WR1 as well as Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert in the passing game. D’Andre Swift continues to smash it on the ground as they have the highest yards before contact in the league.
The Rams have Kupp back, it will be interesting to see how things go with he and Puka Nakua, it could open things up even more for the young rookie. Kyren Williams continues his run of 2 TDs or none, and Aaron Donald just keeps soaking up triple teams.
I can’t see the Eagles not winning by a TD or more so I’d have to take them on the spread, under on the 50.5 total.
Bengals -3 @ Cardinals: 44.5
Last week was the first game I’ve managed to fully watch all season and I wish I hadn’t, the Bengals were TERRIBLE, probably the worst I’ve seen them play since Burrow was drafted, so surely it can’t get worse this week… The Cardinals have shown they can play, although seem to come up short most of the time still.
Joe Burrow wasn’t on the injury report this week and has said he’s feeling the best he has all season, so that’s positive, but Tee Higgins is out. Ja’Marr Chase kicked off about not getting the ball enough so you’d imagine he’ll get peppered this week and Boyd and Irv Smith (if he’s playing) will see an increase. It looks like Iosivas (Yoshi) could get some play as well so may be worth a long-shot. 16/1 at 365/888 is long enough for me. Mixon has run well…
Josh Dobbs has made the Cards fun to watch at least, and Hollywood Brown and Ertz provide him good targets in the passing game, them along with James Conner running the best have has for a while gives them a mildly decent offense, fair play to them.
I am very worried as a Bengals fan, they should win and cover their first out of conference game, but nothing has worked and if they continue averaging 13 points a game they’ve got no chance.
Chiefs -3.5 @ Vikings: 52.5
I know the Chiefs are on TV every week, but surely this would have been more fun than the Sky choice? The Chiefs are 3-1, the Vikings 1-3 coming into this one, but both have history of scoring a billion points.
I don’t think the Chiefs have been very good but they have Mahomes and that’s all you need. They’re getting good work from Pacheco again and spread the ball around on offense with Kelce of course taking the main role there. Will Kadarius Toney finally score? He’s a good price this week at least.
The Vikings’ good luck from recent years is coming home this year as they’re losing close games now, Cousins will put up great numbers as will Just Jeff but I’m sure it may well end up being pointless as they lose this one, Cam Akers a watch only to see what kind of role he’ll get, Mattison had the best game of his season with some competition there last week.
I really want the Vikings to win, but history tells me the Chiefs will win a close, high-scoring one, although, the Chiefs defense has been winning games for them, so maybe go under the total.
Jets +2.5 @ Broncos: 43.5
The Jets pushed the Chiefs close last weekend and if the refs weren’t shit the result could have been different, while the Broncos pulled off a big comeback to beat the Bears.
Zach Wilson had a remarkably professional game against the Chiefs and up against maybe the worst defense in the league this year, he could do something for two weeks in a row, but I’m not brave enough to think that’ll happen. Breece Hall is apparently fully healthy and ready for the full role at RB so props will be on him, I can’t trust the passing game. Garrett Wilson had 30% or so target share last week, you’d think that would continue.
The Broncos D maybe the worst in the league, somehow, and this week they may be without Javonte Williams who left last weekend, that probably means more Jaleel Mc rather than Perine from the little we’ve seen so far. The passing game is Courtland Sutton first, Jeudy and Marvin Mims has show he’s a good deep threat.
The Jets defense is the best unit in the game and I tend to lean that way when I’m unsure, so Jets to win and under on the total.
Cowboys +3.5 @ 49ers: 45
The NFL finally got a big game right as the best game of the evening takes pride of place on SNF, the 49ers are unbeaten coming into this while the Cowboys got right last week by inflicting the biggest loss in 25 years on the Pats.
It was the ‘boys defense which stepped up last week with the offense doing the little that was required to get the win, Pollard got the bulk of the carries with Duece Vaughn being the change of pace although Hunter Luepke got the score and could develop into the goal-line back as the bigger of the lot. The passing game was a lot of Jake Ferguson who caught all 7 of his targets for 77 yards. Lamb and Gallup have started the season well too.
The 49ers offensive line will have their work cut out for them against this pass rush but they were fine vs. the Steelers in week one so should be OK protecting Purdy. Whatever happens Christian McCaffrey will be fine against anyone in the league and he’ll probably add to his 4 TDs from last weekend. It looks like Deebo and Aiyuk are both good to go and Kittle will step up if either of them do miss some time. The linebackers are probably the best group in the league they’ll have a lot of work vs. the RBs and TEs this week too.
I don’t want to take the 49ers on 3.5, but I do think they’re the better team, let’s lean over the total and hope for a fun end to the evening.
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