After a long, but very enjoyable trip down to Tottenham last week to see the Jags beat the Bills I’m quite happy to be sat at home on a Sunday morning doing my write-ups as usual this week as we enter Week 6 of the season, as always things are flying by and we’ll be hitting crunch time before we know it!
The Eagles and 49ers remain unbeaten in the NFC both sitting at 5-0 and, frankly, neither having seen any real stress so far this year while the Chiefs win on TNF put them atop the AFC at 5-1 with the Dolphins looking dominant once more in second place at 4-1. I do think we/I need to change expectations on the Chiefs, they’re winning due to their defense at the moment, not the offense so under look like they’re the order of the day for that once rampant Mahomes’ led unit.
There’s one final NFL game in London today as the Titans take on the Ravens in what could be a defensive battle, but we’ll see on that one.
As always the DraftKings league is up and running so get entered on there if you haven’t already – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/152161134
Titans +5.5 vs. Ravens: 42.5
I struggle week in, week out to be able to call the Titans, I still don’t think they’re effective on offense despite trouncing my Bengals the other week, but they did get Deandre Hopkins his best game of the season last weekend. We know Derrick Henry will do what he does, but outside of those two stars there’s not much there on offense. Defensively they are a very tight, well worked unit and will be able to get pressure up front, although against a mobile QB that might not be the best thing to do.
The Ravens contrived to lose a game they should have easily won against a poor Steelers team last weekend, they had at least 7 drops, some for easy TDs and Lamar threw interceptions at key points as well, you would expect them to bounce back though and as they travelled over here early they should be the better prepared of the two teams. Zay Flowers should retain his target share despite Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman having a second week in the side, he actually had an up-tick in targets last week with them in the side. Ravens defense is fantastic as well.
The Ravens should win easily but the Titans always tend to keep things close so I’m going nowhere on the spread, definitely leaning under on the total though. Going for a slightly random Derrick Henry o10.5 rec. yards – 10/11 as my props on this one (he’s gone over that in 4 of 5 games this year), and as Rashod Bateman has a line of o1.5 receptions at Even money, I’ll have a bit on that as well.
Seahawks +3 @ Bengals: 45
The first Sky game of the evenings see the Seahawks come off their bye week with a trip to Ohio to take on a Bengals which looked a lot more what we were expecting coming into the season with a win over the Cardinals last weekend.
After losing to the Rams in Week 1 the Seahawks have found their form and due, mainly to the dominant running game with Kenneth Walker looking fantastic have won their last 3 games, including handing the Lions their only defeat of the season. Walker will once again be the key man here, but DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have shown how reliable they can be and Metcalf will probably score today against a Bengals CB which doesn’t boast the most height in the league. Rookie Zach Charbonnet got a little more involved in their rout of the Giants, but he’s still a bit-part player for now.
It looks like Burrow is back to health, his deep shot to Chase last week was (in my unbiased opinion) one of the best deep balls you’ll see all year. Chase finished that game with 3 TDs on 15 receptions, a new franchise record as he proved that he is always f-kin open. Tee Higgins is likely to return today so it will be interesting to see if they go away from just hitting Chase on every pass. Joe Mixon has been running well this year without a whole lot of end product, they’ll keep feeding him.
The Bengals benefitted from not facing a top pass rush last week and that should be a similar story in this one, if Burrow is healthy like last week and gets time he should pick apart the defense. Whether the Bengals can hold Walker and DK on their side of the ball is another thing. This should be a cracking game, I liked the Bengals -2.5 I won’t take them at 3 now. Over on the total, I’ll be pushing it a bit here but Chase and Metcalf both to score at 9/2 (Skybet) is my bet. If you can double them on Bet365, they’re best priced at 11/10 and 15/8 respectively on there (although it looks like the 17/4 for both is less than on offer elsewhere)
Panthers +14.5 @ Dolphins: 47.5
Not a massive amount to talk about in this one as the Panthers will be staying winless. They just don’t have the ability to keep up with the Dolphins.
Adam Thielen is the man to look for in props, although 5.5 is a high line for him, he will likely hit it with 7, 11, 7, 11 in his last 4 games with them, and 3 TDs in that time. They’re without Miles Sanders so Chuba Hubbard will have the main load with Blackshear as his backup, 10/1 at Betfred not a terrible price for him but they may well struggle to get to the redzone. I actually think o47.5 isn’t too bad for Chuba rush yards as well, he’s capable of breaking a big one.
The Dolphins have dominated terrible teams all year and even without breakthrough rookie De’von Achane should do the same here. Raheem Mostert is down at 4/7 odds, so looks for the other two RBs, Ahmed and Brooks, 8/1 for Brooks on Skybet is a cracking price and I’ll take a bit on that on 2+ (at 125/1) for him. They signed Chase Claypool in the week, let’s just wait and see how that piece of crap does if he takes the field. He’ll be way down behind Hill and Waddle in the passing game. Tyreek has proven unstoppable this year and the Panthers won’t change that.
Dolphins win easily, probably cover the spread although I won’t be taking that, obviously. Brooks the bet for me at a bigger price than I was expecting (he’s down at 11/5 on 365).
Colts +3.5 @ Jaguars: 44
Gardner Minshew is going to get a at least a month of games with Anthony Richardson missing out with a shoulder injury, that will change their gameplan a little but Minshew is probably the best backup in the league and beat the Ravens already this season as a starter. the run game with Zach Moss has been great so far but they’ll surely start going more towards Jonathan Taylor as he returns. The passing game? It’s Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, both had double digit targets with Minshew.
The Jags return home after two weeks in London, simple betting suggests you bet against the team coming off of an extended road trip, so that’s a negative for them. They did win both games in London and looked great against the Bills in a tough atmosphere last weekend. Travis Etienne ground down the Bills and finished with a couple of TDs, Zay Jones returned and added more threat for their passing game, Engram again was fairly irrelevant and Ridley did his bit.
I like the Colts here, and I LOVE the o3.5 receptions for Josh Downs although 20/33 isn’t great odds, if you’re on 365 you can get 5 receptions at 29/20.
Vikings -3 @ Bears: 43.5
Big news on this one is Justin Jefferson going to IR with a hamstring injury, it means that rookie Jordan Addison needs to step up, and it opens up the passing game for KJ Osborn, Brandon Powell and a host of other randos. It should mean more for Addison, but Osborn is the proven guy there so could move around to him, you can get some tasty prices for anytime scorers if you want to take a shot on the WRs, even Hockenson at 13/8 on Skybet is worth a look.
The Bears are unpredictable, but have removed the cancer that is Claypool at least. Justin Fields threw 15 completions last week, for 282 yards and 4 TDs as DJ Moore exploded once more. It’s such a weird box score, 8 receptions for Moore, 6 for Kmet, 2 for Tonyan. Who needs anything else, hey… the run game will be rough tonight with Herbert and Johnson both missing out, it probably means Dont’a Foreman leading the line for them but he’s a terrible price.
Should be a lot of points in this one, but both teams have lost key pieces on offense. DJ Moore at 15/8 seems absurd after his recent form and 10/3 for Kmet isn’t bad either. If you manage to hit a couple of TD scorers in this one you’ll be a rich man.
Saints -2 @ Texans: 42.5
The Saints win-to-nil against a woeful Pats last week as their defense came out on top and that looks like the way they’ll go all season having conceded the fewest points in the league so far this year. Kamara looked back to form and Michael Thomas was involved more too, they’ll want more from Olave though despite him scoring last weekend.
CJ Stroud still hasn’t thrown an INT, he’ll do well to avoid one against this defense though. Tank Dell misses out with concussion which is a hit for them and probably means more for Nico Collins and TE Dalton Schultz. Maybe a little more for John Metchie (17.5) although that might just be me being romantic.
The Texans have been fun to watch this year, the Saints haven’t. But this is a very well run defense and they should stymie the Texans offense. Lean Saints covering the points, and under on total.
49ers -9.5 @ Browns: 36
The biggest road faves of the season so far see the 5-0 49ers take on the PJ Walker Browns in apparently terrible weather as we have such a low total.
Christian McCaffrey is the best in the league, Brock Purdy is seemingly infallible, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk a great duo and George Kittle showed he’s still around last week as well. They are the best team in the league so far and despite facing a good pass rush here I don’t see that changing.
Deshaun Watson misses out again so that’s the Browns fucked. PJ Walker will surely be better than the rookie last time out, but he’ll struggle against a very good defense. So, not really much to talk about for the Browns.
49ers walk over, have to lean to them covering the spread, and surely an over on the total. But, no bets for me on this shit-show.
Commanders +1.5 @ Falcons
The commies were humbled in their big loss to the Bears on TNF while the Falcons scraped out a win over the Texans last weekend.
Sam Howell has shown patches of being a very good QB and patches of being terrible, it makes the Commies tough to judge on a weekly basis. Terry McLaurin hasn’t really got going yet as Howell prefers the middle of the field and shorter passes to Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas. Samuel is one I’ve been targeting in recent weeks, over 3.5 for him at 27/20 is a nice price and Thomas should hit 4 as well.
Desmond Ridder hasn’t ever lost at home, whether in college or the NFL, a remarkable record for an average guy, he had his best game in the league last weekend with 300+ yards and a rushing TD. They finally remembered Kyle Pitts existed last weekend and Drake London got the ball a lot as they chased the game at the end. Jonnu Smith will keep his targets, but as with Washington they’re a tough team to call on a weekly basis.
More than likely a close game, have to lean the Falcons with Ridders’ record at home. Jonnu Smith o3.5 receptions at 29/20 is a cracking price
Lions -3 @ Buccaneers: 42.5
The Lions look like they’re living up to their billing this year at 4-1 and they’ve been winning games easily in recent weeks even with injuries. David Montgomery has topped his season line for TDs already and may be the league leader come the end of the year. It looks like Gibbs will miss out again, so Craig Reynolds the backup is of a bit of interest. They should have St. Brown back but Laporta who stepped up last week is questionable. If they ever get everyone healthy for a game they could be very good.
The Buccs have been Mike Evans and not much else so far this year, but they still top the NFC South at 3-1. They’re still very good on defense but haven’t faced a team as good as this Lions one yet this year. Rachaad White is getting the carries on the ground… there’s not much to talk about here really.
Lions should win and cover, they are the far better team but facing a team at home off of their bye week is a worry for me. David Montgomery 8/11 (Bet365) is better than the 4/7 or so I was expecting.
Patriots +3 @ Raiders: 41.5
Are we seeing the end of Bill Belichick? Years of terrible roster building is coming to haunt him as they are inept on offense. Will we see Zappe getting a start? The passing game isn’t worth talking about at the moment and the run game has been poor too with Stevenson and Zeke doing very little. They are a good defence still and facing Josh McDaniels, you’d imagine they’ll do well.
The Raiders are a mess as well, but at least have Devante Adams to throw the ball to 100 times a game, and they have a good RB as well with Josh Jacobs looking good this year. Jakobi Meyers faces his former team after leading the Raiders in yards on Monday night.
A terrible game, Raiders should win but I still don’t want to take a protogé against Belichick. Under on the total.
Cardinals +7 @ Rams: 47.5
This one should be interesting although the Caardinals without James Conner aren’t as dangerous. Josh Dobbs has shown he can run the ball well, and Demarcado did all right with Conner out of the lineup last weekend, they also picked up Tony Jones who had a 2 TD game for the Saints earlier this season. Marquise Brown leads the passing game with McBride and Ertz getting a lot at TE.
The Rams welcomed back Cooper Kupp who hit 100 yards last weekend and they look good with him and Puka Nakua, Kyren Williams is running well and will continue to get the goal-line work for them.
The Rams looked good for a half against a top 3 team last weekend, they should do well against a bottom 3 team here. I’d lean to them covering and over on the total. I like o18.5 rush yards for Josh Dobbs
Eagles -6.5 @ Jets: 42.5
The Eagles have been strolling through games for the most part and despite facing a very good defense here should do the same. D’Andre Swift has run very well and AJ Brown has been great in recent weeks, his contest vs. Sauce tonight will be the one to watch. It might mean more for Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert (who had a big game last week).
The Jets aren’t great with Zach Wilson although seem to have settled a little and Breece Hall has been running very well. Garrett Wilson will probably lead them in targets, although Michael Carter at RB could get a couple of catches as well in a game they’ll likely be chasing for most of the game.
Eagles win and cover, nothing on the total – Carter o1.5 receptions at 5/6 is worth a look
Giants +15 @ Bills: 44
Good news for UK fans as they put on another stinker in the last game of Sunday. A huge spread due in part to Daniel Jones missing out and Saquon Barkley “hopeful” of playing, realistically they should give him another week off as they’re getting nothing out of this game.
The Bills looks very poor in London but will bounce back here. Stefon Diggs scored once more, he and Gabe Davis both hit 100 yards and a TD. James Cook was useless on the ground after a good start to the year and Lat Murray and Damien Harris both got involved on that front with no effect.
A terrible looking game to round out the night, but even then I’d lean Bills to cover an unbeatable spread. Gabe Davis – 15/8 (Skybet) seems too big for him to make it five in a row with a score.
TouchdownTips 
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