I had a decent week on props on here, TD scorers, probably best not mentioned, but props went very well, so as we head into Week 7 of the season it’s important to keep an eye on injury reports and line-ups as there are a TON of injuries this week specifically and this season, it seems, a lot of players going very quickly to IR and taking a month off in the middle of the year.
We’ve finally got a good Sunday night game after weeks of duds with the Eagles and Dolphins closing out the evening, and while I think the Chiefs have morphed into a more defensive team, their match-ups vs. the Chargers tend to be good games as well in the 925 window.
A weird one for me as my Bengals are on a bye so it’s probably just RedZone unless there’s an early game which looks like it’s going to be a belter (on first glance that seems unlikely).
DraftKings Link for the week – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/152590789 – $5 Entry, Top 3 get paid out.
Lions +3 @ Ravens: 43
The evening starts with an easy choice for the Sky game as the 5-1 Lions take on the 4-2 Ravens who return from London after an easy win over the hapless Titans.
The Lions look like they’re living up to the hype this year, beating the Champs in Week 1 and comprehensively killing the shit they’ve faced since then (we’ll ignore the Seahawks game) despite injuries hitting them on a weekly basis. David Montgomery misses this week but rookie Jahmyr Gibbs should return to the backfield and with Craig Reynolds banged up as well he may be fully unleashed this week. They welcomed back Jameson Williams from his ban last weekend and he scored on a deep bomb, he’ll need to be more actively involved than just long shots, but the main men in the passing game as St. Brown and LaPorta and both will be fine to go here. They’ve been resilient on defense as well so far although haven’t faced many tests, tonight is a litmus test for how far they’ve actually come.
The Ravens passing game has improved as expected although the receivers aren’t exactly helping things there, but they’ll want their redzone offense to bounce back after Justin Tucker set records for field goals at Spurs last weekend. Lamar is boasting the highest passer rating of his career so far, but he’ll need other beyond Mark Andrews to step up more reliably. Zay Flowers opened his account last weekend but Odell, Agholor and Bateman specifically need to be better. The running game hasn’t been great, Gus Edwards can’t be the bell-cow, but the rotation of him and Justice Hill moves the ball enough for them, hopefully we’ll see a bit of rookie Keaton Mitchell this week. They do have a fantastic defense which got after Tannehill all game last week.
A tough one to call, and I’ll admit the Lions have surpassed my expectations so far. The Ravens as always are well-coached and have dealt with injuries to them. On paper I think the Ravens are the better team but I don’t want them on the spread. Total, I’d lean over. I know the F10Y bettors like Under on Gus Edwards yards, I’m not convinced by that tbh. Not a whole lot I like on Props, Lamar to throw an INT at 11/10 doesn’t seem terrible though, he’s had 1 in each of their last 2 games.
Falcons +2.5 @ Buccaneers: 37
The Falcons home form had been very good with Ridder but he shit the bed in impressive fashion last week with 3 INTs, he’ll do well to bounce back againsts a good Buccs defense. They will surely look to emphasise the run game more with Bijan and Allgeier after last week. The usage of Bijan has been frustrating so far as they take him off the field all the time when en we’d rather see him get full drives. Drake London has been getting a lot in the passing game and even Kyle Pitts got involved last week, Jonnu Smith was as reliable as ever as well and always catches my eye for props. 7/5 for o3.5 receptions for the big man.
Baker Mayfield is who we think he is, he can do it, but he can also have nightmare games. He’ll target Mike Evans a lot and he should bounce back against an average defense here. Evans dropped a big gainers and with more air would have had a long walk-in TD last week so he’s always in the game-plan. They need more elsewhere with the division looking wide open they’ll think they can make the playoffs.
I think the Buccs win and cover, my liking of the Falcons has dissipated. Nothing on the total. Smith o3.5 receptions my prop for the game and Mike Evans would be my pick for a TD scorer. Obviously.
Bills -7.5 @ Patriots: 40
Only 7.5 points for the Bills? That seems a little insulting after another win for them last weekend, although the Giants did manage to keep them in check on MNF. They lost Damien Harris for 4 games and have been pivoting to Lat. Murray on passing downs but James Cook remains the main runner despite being largely inefficient. Stefon Diggs keeps hitting 100 yards through the air and usually scores, Gabe Davis is the same as ever and the emergence of Dalton Kincaid hasn’t happened yet although they do play 2 TE’s a lot.
The Pats are dismal. They have a half-decent defense but are woeful on offense, the OL is poor, the run game isn’t working and Mac Jones should be playing in the league which shares his name. In fairness their injury report is longer than most teams rosters, but even so, it’s a hasty demise for the team.
I’d say nudge it to 7, but the Bills should win by double-digits. If they can score 20 points then they cover the spread. They’ll be doing most of the work on the total, so I’m avoiding that completely. Latavius Murray o6.5 rec. yards – 10/11 – Latavius Murray o1.5 receptions – 33/20
Browns -3.5 @ Colts: 41
The Browns “welcome back” Deshaun Watson after a defensive masterclass helped them beat the 49ers last week with PJ Walker. The offense moved the ball relatively well on the ground with Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt putting in work and Amari Cooper is still good in the passing game but they don’t have much else on that side of the ball and I’m not sure Watson is an upgrade on anyone at the moment, especially with a poorly shoulder, maybe he needs a massage. Their defense may be the best in the league.
Gardner Minshew is a backup for a reason, he can have 300 yard – 4 TD games, or he can have 3 INTs in a game and cost his side the win, last week was the latter. Zack Moss scored again but the split moved more towards Jonathan Taylor as you would expect. Pittman was the main man in the passing game but Josh Downs cleared his receptions line again, he’s had a busy start ot his career.
Browns defense should do the job, so I’d lean them covering, and a heavy lean to under on the total. Josh Downs is at 3.5 receptions again, it’s riskier this week against this defense but his aDot isn’t high at all which makes things easier. I think I’ll dabble on him again. Josh Downs o3.5 – 20/33 (Bet365)
Raiders -2.5 @ Bears: 37.5
Chaos. Brian Hoyer vs. Tyler Bagent in this all-time game for the ages. Both teams were poor already this season, now with Backup QBs, it’s going to be even worse.
The Raiders at least have Devante Adams and Josh Jacobs who are top 10 are their positions, and somehow have a 3-3 record coming into this one. Michael Mayer started the game on fire last week and Jakobi Meyers scored against his former team but rush attempts for Jacobs seem the way to go against a poor Bears team.
After his fumble 6 on the first snap of his career I thought Bagent looked all right last week, 10 from 14 for 83 yards wasn’t that bad, although the INT he threw was very underthrown. Him being in there kills any look at pass catchers and the running game “led” by D’onta Foreman isn’t going to hurt anyone either. Usually TE’s get a bump with rookie QBs so could be more for Kmet.
A terrible game on paper. I don’t want anything here, but I’d lean to the Raiders pounding it on the ground 100 times and their defense killing the kid in for the Bears. Over on 18.5 rush attempts for Jacobs my only half-like.
Commanders -3 @ Giants: 37.5
Talking of stink-fests… at least Sam Howell can be fun, I guess. Daniel Jones is questionable but hoping to play, relaitically they may as well keep Tyrod in there.
The Commanders defense has been fine and the connection with Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas has worked well for Howell. Terry McLaurin hasn’t done a whole lot although he did lead the team in yards last week. Brian Robinson looks like the man in the run game now with Antonio Gibson finally given up on, although if they trail in games he does get work, that seems unlikely here.
The Giants scraped a lot of wins last year and like the Vikings, it seems that things are levelling out this year. They gave Barkley 28 touches on his return from an ankle sprain on Monday so I guess they think he’s fine but the passing game is shallow and poor, Darius Slayton my usual go-to for props whether it’s longest of total yards, Wan’Dale Robinson and Darren Waller hovered up the rest of the targets with Tyrod in the game last week.
A horrible looking NFC East clash, I’d probably lean to the Giants getting 3 points at home and under on the total, but this could be a weird game. Curtis Samuel o3.5 receptions – 20/21 – 7/2 or 10/3 is too high for him to score as well.
Chargers +5.5 @ Chiefs: 47.5
The late game on Sky was an easy choice as well as they get to show a usually entertaining AFC West clash, although they do tend to be won by the Chiefs who dominate their division every year.
There is very little chat on how poor the Chargers record is at the moment, espeically when compared to other teams who drafted a QB in the same draft, but I guess it’s all to do with expectation, we don’t ever really expect the Chargers to win games, it’s not in their nature. Justin Herbert sits 6th in QBR so far, 9 TDs to 2 INTs and admittedly they’ve had a tough start to the season so maybe I’m being a little harsh on them. They had Austin Ekeler back finally last week so may have a run game for the first time all season and Keenan Allen is showing he’s still a top 10 WR. Rookie Quentin Johnston has not been good, so it may be left to Allen, Ekeler and the TEs to move the ball against a stout Chiefs defense.
Do we have to realise the Chiefs are now a defense-first team? This game would usually have a 53.5+ total but here we are, the Chiefs offense barring Kelce hasn’t been too impressive but maybe I’m comparing it to the high expectations I had of them. Mahomes is still great but the cast around him is poor and the return of Mecole Hardman doesn’t raise that too much. Kelce tends to do well vs. the Chargers, althoguh weirdly his TDs seem to come on the road against them, 3-2-1 in his last 3 games in LA/SD compared to no score at home in 8 games between the sides. Rashee Rice looks like the best option in the WR corps but it’s alwasy tough to call who gets the ball with Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney doing bits. Isaih Pacheco is the man on the ground but he’s average and Jerrick McKinnon could have a big game if things go his way. They have become a very good defense.
Annoyingly I’ve got nothing. I’d probably take the Chargers on the spread, they tend to play 3-point games, and I’d love it to be over on the total.
Cardinals +8 @ Seahawks: 44.5
The Cardinals have at least been fun this year, Josh Dobbs can run the ball and find his man on occasion as well, their defense isn’t great but that makes for more exciting games at least. Marquise Brown has done fine and it looks like Trey McBride may be taking the main spot at TE with Zach Ertz faded out a little, although McBride’s RZ targets haven’t been there so far. James Conner is on IR so it looks like Demercado and Damien Williams will get carries on the ground.
The Seahawks should have beaten the Bengals last weekend but they struggled in the Redzone and threw it away. DK Metcalf being a game-time decision is the main news on them, he’ll probably play but it could mean more for JSN in the passing game if he’s out. Kenneth Walker scored again last week and with Zach Charbonnet questionable with a hammy he may get even more touches this week. Unsurprisngly he’s very short for a score.
Seahawks should win but I won’t take them on that spread. Over on the total please? Loving the Dobbs rushing line again, he had 24 on the first play last week and is lined at 23.5 this week.
Steelers -3 @ Rams: 44
Diontae Johnson returns for the Steelers which must surely help their offense, although they are without Pat Friermuth for 4 weeks now as he aggravated his hamstring injury. They are capable of chunk plays but over-all the offense is not good. Warren and Harris will split things on the ground. The defense is good still but has been giving up a lot through the air.
Cooper Kupp is back and looking great, over 100 yards and a TD in both games this season and Puka Nakua will be a guy for them for the foreseeable future as well. They are a mess in the run-game this week with Darrel Henderson, Myles Gaskin and Royce Freeman coming in alongside Zach Evans, there’s been no clarity who will get the ball from any comments I’ve seen, Henderson seems most likely for me as he was with them previously.
I wanted to take the Steelers but I can’t take them giving up a field goal, they don’t score enough to blow anyone away and Aaron Donald will get pressure on Pickett. The prices on the RBs are terrible so there’s no value there. There won’t be many neutrals watching this.
Packers -1 @ Broncos: 45
The Packers started the season fine but have gone back to where we expected. They may have Aaron Jones for this one as he “intends to play” and AJ Dillon hasn’t done much with the backfield to himself. The passing game is mixed around but Romeo Doubs looks like the 1 so far this year although it may end up being Christian Watson once he builds a bit more of a rapport.
The Broncos are horrible. Their defense is one of the worst in the league and there’s disquiet around the offense as well. Javonte Williams returned to get the bulk of the carries but Jaleel McLaughlin shows nice burst for his few TDs so far, Perine isn’t really anywhere to be seen. Courtland Sutton has been getting the TDs (4 from 6 games) which has propped up his performances while Jerry Jeudy looks like he’s in purgatory here for now. Marvin Mims should top his 17.5 line with a catch, IF he gets one.
Not a good game on paper, for no reason at all I think the Broncos could scrape a win and with their defense I’ll go over on the total.
Dolphins +3 @ Eagles: 51.5
This should be a cracker to finish out the evening as the Dolphins have been smashing all the guff they’ve faced so far this season and the Eagles have looked great on the whole, may have been looking ahead to this game with their loss to the Jets last week.
The Dolphins are comfortably the top scorers in the league but haven’t faced much talent so far, the only game against a proper team, they lost to the Bills. They have been destroying the shit teams though and that’s usually the sign of a good team so it’s nothing against them really. Tua and Tyreek have been crazy, Hill on for 1,000 yards inside 8 weeks as he sits on 814 already this season, and has scored 6 in 6 games, eh’s only blank that loss to the Bills. They actually don’t have much more going in the passing game outside of him, Jaylen Waddle has chipped in a bit with scores in each of their last two games. The run game has been dominant though as Raheem Mostert went to 9 rushing TDs last week and has two through the air as well. He’ll be the main man against with Salvon Ahmed behind him as Chris Brooks joins Achane on IR. They are not good on defense though giving up the 7th most points in the league this year.
The Eagles have been great this season and silly mistakes cost them their perfect record vs. the Jets last week. Jalen hurts throwing 3 INTs in a poor performance, he did find AJ Brown for 100 yards again though, making it 4 games in a row he’s hit triple figures. Much like the ‘Fins though they could do with more from Devonta Smith alongside him and this defense could be the spark for him. Dallas Goedert should get 4 or 5 catches as well. They’ll look to get D’Andre Swift going again on the ground after one poor game last week, and of course the rugby scrum will get them TDs and yards when needed.
Should be a great game, but the Eagles are far stronger on defense. This is a game I think the Dolphins need to win to prove they’re competitors this year but I think the Eagles show their class. Hopefully over on the total to finish the evening off well for neutrals.
TouchdownTips 
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