GAMES KICK OFF AT 5PM UK TIME THIS WEEKEND ONLY!
It’s fair to say there were some interesting results last weekend! The Lions and Dolphins were the fun teams coming into the weekend and both shit the bed against superior opponents, do either really have a chance of making the Super Bowl? The Lions might, but being 28-0 down at the half isn’t exactly going to convince anyone of that fact. The Dolphins, I’m not so sure on, they’ve faced two good teams this season and lost by some margin in both of them, it’s fine beating up on the bad teams, and they are incredibly good at doing that, but you’ve got to beat good teams as well at some point.
The Patriots pulled off the upset of the night though by beating the Bills (who have set things right to an extent by beating the Buccs on Thursday night) in a result I didn’t think had a chance at all, they slowed Diggs effectively and managed shorter fields to score enough to pull off the win, it doesn’t change my mind too much on them, but fair play to the Pats for that, and the 49ers lost on MNF to the Vikings with Brock Purdy looking like he received a concussion part-way through the game.
The Browns and Colts game was incredibly entertaining only for the refs to make the previous 59 minutes irrelevant with two TERRIBLE calls at the end of the game allowing the Browns to score what turned out to be the winning TD taking them to 4-2 alongside the 4-2 Steelers who somehow keep grinding out results.
Betting-wise Jonnu Smith had 3 receptions on the FIRST DRIVE and then nothing else, so came short of his line; Lat Murray hit his over on receptions at a nice price; Josh Downs hit his reception line once more, he’s proving a nice draft pick; Curtis Samuel hit his rec. line again as did Josh Dobbs on his rushing line for the Cardinals; So, overall on my BOLD picks it was a 4-1 week with just Jonnu Smith letting the side down.
There’s a full slate of games this week with no teams off so after the usual plug for the DraftKings league I’ll get into things… https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/153023139 – LET’S GO!
There are a LOT of low totals on the board this week (NONE over 50 points) but after going through them on the Full10yards Betting Pod (live from 1830 every Thursday evening on YouTube and Twitter) I’m still leaning under on a lot of them.
Rams +7 @ Cowboys: 45.5
The early games don’t look too stellar so the boffins at Sky have taken their chance of having AMERICAS TEAM on for the live coverage at 1700 this weekend.
The Rams were the team the Steelers defeated but that game could have gone either way while the Cowboys come off their bye week.
Puka Nacua is definitely the real deal, we thought his production would drop with Cooper Kupp back but the attention he gets allows Puka softer coverage and he’s making the most of it with another 100 yard game last weekend, he’s had at least 7 targets in each game this year. Kupp had a day off but has shown no real issues coming back from his injury and the triple headed run game was adequate enough against the Steelers, Henderson was meant to be the main target there and he found the endzone, 18 carries for him, 12 for Royce Freeman.
The Cowboys, as ever, are proving to be a bit of a mystery. I didn’t think Pollard could be a bellcow and that seems to be true although he is explosive when he gets the ball they have mixed in Dowdle and Luepke at full back. Things don’t seem to be clicking that much, Lamb can have big games, Gallup has looked fine and Brandin Cooks at least scored last time out as Jake Ferguson had a very quiet one.
A tough one to call on the spread, my first thought was the Cowboys should win easily but it’s the Cowboys, I can’t take them covering a TD. Jake Ferguson o3.5 receptions – 7/5 (Bet365) I’ll put this in at plus-money, I think the game against the Chargers was the anomaly on the season.
Falcons -2.5 @ Titans: 35
The Falcons obviously won after I gave up on them last week, but the big news for this one is on the Titans side with Tannehill out it looks like it will be a mix of Malik Willis and rookie Will Levis at QB, Levis looks like he’ll get first crack at things. He can’t be much worse than Tanny has been this year but it’s not a positive for this game. It surely means more for Henry and Spears in the run game and probably more for Chiggy at TE, he was hyped up coming into the year but has barely touched the ball this season.
The Falcons will be hoping Bijan Robinson doesn’t shit himself like last week where he had one touch due (apparently) to illness, Drake London looks good and Kyle Pitts has been increasingly involved in recent weeks, finally.
A stupidly low total, but still not one I can go over on! The Titans do have a very good pass rush and negating that could lead to more carries for Ridder, his rushing line is 10.5, he’s had 10, 18 and 38 in his last 3 games but I think I’ll go back to Derrick Henry o9.5 rec. yards – It landed in London and with a rookie QB check-downs are king.
Texans -3.5 @ Panthers: 43.5
The top 2 QBs in the draft this year and from what we’ve seen so far they should be playing on the opposite teams as CJ Stroud has impressed while Bryce Young has struggled.
The Texans might actually have some talent on offense with Stroud using Nico Collins and Tank Dell well and Pierce/Singetary providing some assistance in the run game for them, Dell returns from a concussion this week and is one of my favourite picks for the week, he was on for a monster game when he went out in the 2nd quarter last time they played. Dalton Schultz has proven to be a good help in the RZ for them as well.
The Panthers are Adam Thielen and not a whole lot more, he’s had 11 receptions in 3 of their last 4 games and scored in 4 of their 6 this season, so it’s safe to say he’ll probably get the ball a lot. DJ Chark does a little and Tommy Tremble has had some redzone action at TE. Miles Sanders should have a better game coming off the bye week.
My favourite bet of the week was the Texans -3, at 3.5 I still like them to win and cover, but not as strongly. Tank Dell o46.5 rec. yards; Dalton Schultz anytime TD – 13/5 (PaddyPower) Might be one of the higher scoring games this week.
Jaguars -2 @ Steelers: 41
The Jags come of extended rest here after winning on TNF last week, they’ve brought their London form back to the states and have now won 4 in a row, the Steelers just keep grinding out results as well. Interesting game.
The Jags have shown they’re good in both facets on offense with Travis Etienne showing up in recent weeks on the ground and a few viable options through the air as well. Calvin Ridley’s season has been frustrating after starting the year well he’s dropped off while Zay Jones seems to offer the TD threat and Christian Kirk has proven good in the slot. Evan Engram gets a decent amount of work as well. Saying all that, Lawrence rush yards could be a good look against this pass rush.
The Steelers are doing what they do every year, they look fairly inept on offense for large parts of games where their defense keeps things close and then Pickett remembers he’s a professional sportsman for 10 minutes and that’s enough for them to win. There was worry over Diontae Johnson’s health but he logged a full practice which will help them, so it might not rely entirely on the Picks (I didn’t miss an ‘r’). Pickens basically won them the game last week. Najee has looked better recently and Warren found the endzone in relief of him last weekend as well.
I have no idea on the result here but I’d have to lean Steelers, they’ll be fired up at the disrespect in the line here, lean under on the total as TJ Watt is elite and will mess things up.
Vikings -1 @ Packers: 41.5
The Vikings won on MNF against one of the better teams in the league while the Packers lost a close one in Denver as both chase the Lions in the NFC North.
Jordan Addison has had to step up with Justin Jefferson missing games and he did that last week with a big TD before half time giving him a good stat-line, he’ll be the main target once more despite a knock with TJ Hockenson sharing the bulk of the targets with the rookie. KJ Osborn and Brandon Powell can help out a little as well. Did we see a shift in the run game last week? CAkers out-carried Alexander Mattison although neither were very effective. I like Akers and thought it was a matter of time before he took the role, but I may still be waiting unless he’s a big price to find pay-dirt here.
The Packers have faltered after a good start with Jordan Love, Christian Watson returned and hasn’t done much at all, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed both scored (the latter with one of the luckiest TD’s you’ll see all year as Doubs deflected it straight into his arms), they do spread the ball around but having AJ Dillon at 34 yards as your highest receiver isn’t a good sign. Aaron Jones looked good on a limited snap count last week and will likely take the main RB role back as Dillon hasn’t been great so far.
Jones having more of a role will be a boost for the Packers, but I think the Vikes make it three-in-a-row and therefore cover the spread. Akers is best-priced at 13/5 to score, too low for me. TJ Hockenson o5.5 receptions – 8/11 (PaddyPower) no line on 365 for some reason.
Patriots +8.5 @ Dolphins: 46.5
A re-match already?! The Dolphins won 24-17 in NE in Week 2 of the season and will look to bounce back after their loss last weekend while the Patriots will double or triple cover Tyreek Hill to try and slow him again, 5 for 40 was comfortably his lowest output of the season when they met first time around.
I have nothing much to say on the Pats, Belichick did a good job taking away the best player last week and he’ll likely do the same to Hill here, but they’re a nothing team who I have don’t have anything positive to say about. Are they finally remembering that Rhamondre Stevenson is good catching out of the backfield? 5 and 6 receptions for him the past two weeks.
The Dolphins have smashed poor teams this year and I think the Patriots are in that category. I do however think that they could slow Tyreek Hill again meaning that Jaylen Waddle might have to actually do something, he has scored a couple of times but his production has been severely limited so far, his biggest game of the year did come in NE. The run game has been very good and Mostert will more than likely score in this one, Salvon Ahmed is probably the 2 behind him with the younger kids both out injured but Jeff Wilson could be back to muddy the waters there, either way, 11/10 for Mostert actually looks very nice value.
Dolphins should win, and I think they cover but maybe Bill has a big of his mojo back defensively and keeps things close? Mostert anytime TD – 11/10 (WilliamHill); Rhamondre Stevenson o18.5 rec. yards – Annoying it’s now 8/11 for Mostert, he should score.
Saints -2 @ Colts: 43.5
The Saints should have at least forced Overtime last weekend as Derek Carr slightly overthrew Moreau in the endzone (he still should have caught it). While the Colts deserved a win against the Browns in a crazy high-scoring game which went over the total by half-time.
The Saints had gone under the total in 13 straight games before allowing a lot of points to the Jags last TNF, they are led mainly by their defense keeping things tight. Carr is who he always has been, just above average. They need to get Chris Olave more involved, but Michael Thomas looked like he had his best game last week. Alvin Kamara has come back firing and his target share is ridiculous with 35 receptions from 39 targets making it 104 touches in his FOUR games.
It’s Gardner Minshew for the rest of the season for the Colts, so we’ll have some fun games at least, fumbles, INTs or long TDs, Minshew provides them all depending on the week. Zack Moss is questionable so surely more of Jonathan Taylor who led the backfield last week anyway 18, for 75 yards and a TD last weekend for him. Josh Downs is reliable for 5 catches a week and Michael Pittman bumped his stats with a long TD last weekend.
Tough one to call, I’d like the Colts to win as they’re definitely the more fun to watch of the two teams here and I’ve nothing on the total either, could be very low, could be quite high. Alvin Kamara o4.5 receptions – 4/6, probably worth a ladder on him with 6 at 7/5, 7 at 27/10 and 8 receptions at 5/1 all at Bet365. Personally, as I can’t bet on Bet365 I’ll be on o5.5 at 11/10 on PaddyPower. Downs at plus money for 5 seems decent as well.
Jets -3 @ Giants: 35
The Jets beat the Eagles before their bye week with a strong defensive performance while the Giants defense did them proud holding the Commies to 7 points in their win last weekend.
Not a whole lot to say about either of these teams on a betting front, we know that Breece Hall will get 80% of the touches for the Jets, that Garrett Wilson will be the favoured target for the Jets but I still won’t trust Zach Wilson to be reliable on a weekly basis. Their defense can be trusted though and should look stronger after their bye week as they were banged up coming into that rest period.
The Giants looks like they may have Tyrod Taylor at QB for the remainder of the season which is fine for them, there’s not much difference in performance between he and Daniel Jones. I thought Wan’Dale Robinson would be reliable for targets last week but he did very little with Darren Waller finding the endzone for them. I can’t and won’t say who will get the ball this week. Say one thing for the Giants, they do play hard week in, week out.
No road team here as they play in the same stadium but the Jets will have the road dressing room here. The Jets are my lean to scrape a low-scoring affair. Over 40 points would prove quite a shock to me.
Eagles -7 @ Commanders: 43.5
Another re-match with the Commies hosting this time after keeping things close in Phillie. They do seem to have figured out how to play against the Iggles despite the difference in talent between the teams.
The Eagles signed Byard to strengthen their already good defense, but obviously that’s not our area for betting. Jalen Hurts will continue to get pushed into the endzone, he’s scored 6 times in 7 games with just two blanks this season. They’ll want a bit more from their supporting cast as aside from AJ Brown they’re not finding too much through the air this year, Devonta Smith has been fine and Dallas Goedert provided a little in games as well. Olamide Zaccheus has kept his role so far despite Julio Jones joining them for some depth. D’Andre Swift keeps his role on the ground with Kenneth Gainwell offering a good backup.
Curtis Samuel will remain my guy for the Commies, HOWEVER he is a game-time decision for this one, he and Logan Thomas tend to be the most targeted in the passing game although Terry McLaurin had a decent game last weekend. Sam Howell is an interesting QB, he has shown he’s capable but being under constant pressure with no real OL has proven tough for him to overcome this year so far. Brian Robinson has been good on the ground with Antonio Gibson largely vacant this season.
Eagles should win and they should cover but the Commanders have kept these matches close in recent years so I won’t be touching that. Logan Thomas o3.5 recs – 5/4
Bengals +5 @ 49ers: 43.5
The game of the dey? The AFC North vs. NFC West road-trips start with the Bengals coming off their bye to face a 49ers team looking to bounce back from a shock loss on MNF so it’s the biggest rest disparity of the season, if you think that matters…
It should mean the best health of the season for Joe Burrow and they have Orlando Brown back who’s loss on the offensive line could have been a reason for their utter ineptness in their win against the Seahawks. Tee Higgins has been dealing with a rib fracture, he’ll have appreciated the week off as well and Ja’marr Chase is obviously capable of huge games if things go well for him. They should be trying to trade for a TE as Irv Smith has offered very little so far. Joe Mixon has run well, with Chase Brown now on IR Trayveon Williams will be the backup there.
The 49ers are without Deebo Samuel, but it looks like Brock Purdy has somehow flown through concussion protocol to retain his position as starter, the last time this happened to a QB was Tua, he faced the Bengals the next week and got very seriously hurt so I’m hoping that doesn’t happen again. It’s not really on him anyway, it’s all Christian McCaffrey who looks to make it 17 games in a row with a TD and probably will do early on. Juaun Jennings actually led the passing game in targets last week with Deebo out and it’s he and George Kittle who will be further involved with Brandon Aiyuk the biggest threat on slightly deeper looks. The 49ers defense will get after Burrow and that could be the key for them.
I actually like my Bengals to win this or at least cover the 5 points. I do think there’s a big head coach mis-match but Lou Anorumo will give Purdy all kinds of issues and with him being a very system QB I think he’ll struggle with the looks given to him, on the other side of things the 49ers will likely kill the Bengals offense which has been stuttering all year anyway so I’m going to have to lean under on the total although a 60 point game wouldn’t be the biggest shock ever. Should be a cracking game for the evening Sky game.
Browns +4 @ Seahawks: 37.5
The Browns come off a referee-assisted win over the Colts to take on a Seahawks team who beat the Cardinals last time out.
Deshaun Watson has his money and seems like he’s packed it in, he misses again with his “shoulder”? There’s no need for the obvious joke… so PJ Walker starts which limits the whole Browns offense. It looked like Jerome Ford would miss with an ankle sprain but he trained and looked good so might get a start, if not Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong get the work, neither at odds for a TD which are tempting. The passing game is limited with Walker, Cooper will be the 1 as always, Elijah Moore will get a bit and David Njoku being the TE will help out his inexperienced QB.
The Seahawks are a lot more settled and will likely load up Kenneth Walker again, he surely won’t go two weeks without a score? 10/11 for him looking a lot better than the 4/7 failure last weekend. They should have their big 3 back in the passing game and a look at Jake Bobo at 9/1 on Skybet could be worth a go after he got significant playing time and made a fantastic catch in the corner of the endzone last weekend.
Probably a tight game, the Browns defense has been keeping them in games so far this year without much from the offense. I’d lean the Seahawks winning and under on a low total. Elijah Moore o3.5 receptions – 27/20 – I’ll have a go on the plus-odds for Moore, he gets a lot of targets with Walker at QB, 7 in each of their last two games.
Ravens -10 @ Cardinals: 44.5
The Ravens come off a kerb-stomping of the upstart Lions to take on a top-5 pick seeking Cardinals team.
There could be reinforcements coming in Baltimore as the whispers start on them trading for Derrick Henry, that could be a division winning and who-knows-what-after-that type move, but for now they’ll stick with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill and mix in Keaton Mitchell with a few touches as well. The passing game has been more reliable since their farce vs. the Steelers, Andrews, Flowers, Bateman and Odell having a fairly even share of the workload, they brought in more for Lamar and he’s been using it well, outside WRs do well vs. the Cards, so it could be an Odell game.
It might be my last look at Joshua Dobbs rushing yards with Kyler Murray back in training this week, they have said he’ll be playing when available so the change could be made next weekend. James Conner is still out so the run game is blunted with Demarcado and Damien Williams in there. Marquise Brown will get his targets as he does every week and with Zach Ertz out Trey McBride should get more as well, he was a guy I looked at last weekend. Rookie Michael Wilson may be more involved without Ertz as well.
The rush line on Dobbs has hit 31 now, so I’ll give that a miss. I do like Trey McBride over 3.5 receptions, but the Ravens linebackers are very good so I’ll avoid that too. Odell Beckham o31.5 rec. yards is a nice low line though, he’s hit it in tougher matchups for the last two games.
Chiefs -7 @ Broncos: 46
The Chiefs beat the Chargers in a weird game last week while the Broncos scraped a win against the Packers at home, it seems they’ve had a lot of home games at the front of the schedule.
What else can I say on the Chiefs really? Opponents not being able to stop Travis Kelce walking 12 yards past the line of scrimmage and turning around is incredible to me, but it works and I’m sure it will continue to work against a shitty Broncos defense. Rashee Rice was more involved last week and his role will increase as the season goes on, Toney and Moore aren’t doing much, MVS hadn’t until a big score last week and they brought back Hardman who had the one reception last weekend. Defensively they stopped the Chargers for 3 quarters last week and should do the job against this lot.
I have very little respect for the Broncos as you may have noticed, Russ has shown flashes, Jeudy obviously isn’t happy and they don’t seem to like him either, Courtland Sutton isn’t great but is the lead WR most weeks this season, he has scored in 5 of their 7 games this year. Javonte Williams did find the endzone last week but had it called back, he looked good in the bits I caught on Redzone with Jaleel McClaughlin keeping his RB2 role. Samaje Perine had a few receptions. Marvin Mims has shown explosivity in the few touches he’s had this year but I’m not sure they’ll get enough time for deep shots against this defense. I will mention Kareem Jackson is an utter cunt and fully deserves his lengthy ban for head-hunting. Scum.
Chiefs win and make it SEVENTEEN WINS IN A ROW AGAINST THE BRONCOS, they cover. They own their division and that’s not changing this year.
Bears +8.5 @ Chargers: 46.5
A stinker closes out the Sunday action as Tyson Bagent takes on the constantly failing Chargers in LA. Hilariously both these teams come into this with 2 wins. Yet, nothing gets mentioned about Herbert and the Chargers… weird that.
Tyson Bagent has actually looked fine at QB in the 5 quarters or so we’ve seen, he didn’t have to do much last week with Dont’a Foreman scoring thrice, but he kept it safe and that was all they needed against a perfunctory Raiders performance last week. Short fields won the game for them but Foreman did run well. The passing game was largely targeting DJ Moore as you’d expect, Cole Kmet wasn’t targeted last week which seems very weird as a reliable player in the short range.
On paper the Chargers should win this very easily but they never do things easily, Austin Ekeler used last week as a warm-up as he returns to the team, Keenan Allen remains the one high point of their offense and one of the tight ends Everett and Parham will score at least once this weekend as they have all season, Everett with one in each of their last two is the better priced of the two and the more involved.
The Chargers should win and cover, but you couldn’t pay me enough money to take them giving away 8.5 points. A big lean to the Bears covering the spread, and under on the total. Gerald Everett anytime TD – 7/2 (PaddyPower)
Raiders +8 @ Lions: 46
A quick look at Monday Night as I’ve not been getting any previews out on Mondays this year.
The Raiders will have Jimmy Garoppolo back which is good for them as Hoyer was fucking terrible last weekend. Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs get a bump as the offense will be better all around. Jakobi Meyers scored again last week and seems to have the knack of finding the endzone this year with the disappearance of Hunter Renfrow continuing to be a bit strange to me, he’s always proven himself reliable in the short passing game but is now apparently invisible, oh yeah, Michael Mayer looks decent at TE in recent weeks, I’d be very happy with o2.5 receptions if it pops up anywhere.
The Lions DESTROY shit teams and after their humping last weekend will bounce back against a crappy Raiders team here. David Montgomery misses out once more so it looks like Jahmyr Gibbs will get the carries and receptions. Shout out to Marvin Jones who left the team due to family issues this week, I hope things go well for him, but with him out Jameson Williams needs to get his shit together, he has the talent but looks like he and Goff need to get together and work things out. Amon-Ra St. Brown will do his usual 7 receptions for 100 and Sam LaPorta should get more as well. The Reynolds brothers will continue to add in with Josh having a few catches and Craig getting some goal-line work (I’d imagine).
Lions win and cover, it’s the perfect teaser leg if you go that way with things. I’m tempted with 18/5 on Jameson Williams 50+ yards, he is the deep threat for the Lions and they should be able to take a few looks at that.
TouchdownTips 
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