Ah shit, we’re past the halfway point of the regular season already?! A middling week last week for me on here, I got a lot of the sides correct, but around evens on the Bold picks, the day started well then faded off, so on to this week and the start of the German games with the Chiefs and Dolphins in Frankfurt this week and Colts v Patriots this side of the pond next week. There’s a lot of chat over a potential game at the Bernabeu in Madrid next season as the NFL continues to extend it’s claws across Europe.
The Sky games look good tonight with the Seahawks at Ravens early on and then the Eagles and Cowboys in an always hotly fought NFC East contest, concluding with the cracker as the Bengals host the Bills again, meaning I have decisions to make on my viewing for the evening…
The usual Draftkings contest is up and running – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/153484574 – So get involved in there!
Dolphins +1.5 vs. Chiefs: 51 (Deutschland)
This game is on Sky with ITV concentrating on the FA Cup (a decision for me to make here too with the mighty Crewe hosting Derby in ITVX at 1445…) and with the potential offenses on view most will be expecting a high-scoring game and with both teams coming in at the 6-2, this is important for the AFC as a whole.
The two defeats the Dolphins have suffered this year were against the two half-decent teams they’ve faced and they weren’t really even that close in them, the Bills and Eagles took care of them handily so I have reservations over their ability to win this one. They are healthy enough with no major news popping up through the week meaning Raheem Mostert will be the main man on the ground supported by Big Jeff Wilson. Tua has made it through the season well so far and releases the ball quicker than any other QB in the league, usually to Tyreek Hill who takes it downfield; The Cheetah has already topped 1,000 yards on the season and has a TD in all bar one game this year. He’ll get the better coverage tonight and it’s safe to say the Chiefs should know all about him, so it could open things up for Jaylen Waddle who had his best game of the season last week. It’s actually a very shallow offense but it’s called well and works against most teams in the league.
They welcomed back Jalen Ramsey quicker than expected and he was straight into the action with an INT of Mac Jones last week, not that tough against him, but it’s a big boost to a defense which was getting gashed frequently.
The Chiefs lost to the fucking Broncos last week, their first defeat against them in nearly a decade as Patrick Mahomes supposedly played through illness in Denver. I’ve said all year that their offense hasn’t really clicked so far and is arguably more shallow than the Dolphins who at least have an operational run game. Isiah Pacheco is fine on the ground, he, McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire do what they can but it’s not entirely functional.
The passing game is mostly Travis Kelce with punt shots to speedsters outside of him. Annoyingly Kelce is usually all they need as the best TE in the game moves the ball at ease and his mind-meld with Mahomes has been formed over years playing together, he will be without his beau tonight though with Taylor Swift staying back in America, so, you know. Bad news for him? Rashee Rice has looked good in his rookie season and is getting more involved every week at the expense of gadget players like Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney. They brought back Mecole Hardman who has done little but fuck up and MVS can take short passes to the house as well.
The Chiefs defense though has been very good on the whole this year, and should be able to slow Tyreek Hill to some extent. Their pass-rush isn’t great which could be the bit that costs them as they’ll struggle to get to Tua in time to stop his quick passes.
Despite my pessimism of the Chiefs I can’t back against Mahomes and at near-enough a pick’em I’ll be going for them on the spread and under on the total. First quarter under 10 and second half points, or in-play points seems the best way to go as teams coming over to Europe tend to start slowly in games. Any props will be aimed at Rashee Rice but his line is going up weekly and sits at 44.5 now. Slightly random, but I’ll take the 3rd down back Jeff Wilson o6.5 rec. yards.
Seahawks +6.5 @ Ravens: 44
The 1800 Sky game sees the NFC West leaders travel across to the top team in the AFC North, two of the tougher divisions in football.
First look seems to me that the spread is too high as the Seahawks tend to keep games close, but I do think the Ravens are the better team and have been good at home, and against the NFC.
Geno Smith is fine, he does what he needs to do but his propensity to try and force things in the Red Zone has hurt them at times this year. He does have a good trio of weapons in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and recently Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has emerged in recent weeks, and if any of them go down Jake Bobo has helped out well recently too. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet offer a good run game and their defense has been good in spurts as well. They’re a good enough team in the NFC. Meh.
The Ravens have been good on both sides of the ball with Lamar Jackson looking comfortable in their new offense although their pass-catchers haven’t exactly been reliable so far this season. Gus Edwards has been his usual self on the ground and had a career-high 3 TDs last weekend with Justice Hill looking good as the change of pace back. I’m done with Odell now, he’s just an average guy now, so Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews will be the one’s I expected to be leading the line for them, even Nelson Agholor looks better than Odell this year. They have one of the best defenses in the league with the trade bringing in Roquan Smith last year looking like a masterstroke.
The Ravens should win this but I don’t think it will be by 7 points so I’d lean to the Seahawks keeping it relatively close, won’t be touching the total though, it could be anything. A few decent prices for a long-shot if you fancy it, Agholor 6/1 at WillHill and Colby Parkinson for the Seahawks at 10/1 on PaddyPower – There are better prices at Livescorebet but I won’t list them as most people (I’d imagine) don’t use them.
Cardinals +13 @ Browns: 38
The Cards will be starting Clayton Tune this week with Kyler Murray back next week and after trading Joshua Dobbs to the Vikings in the week, they’re expected to get 12 points according to the bookies, so there’s not a whole lot to talk about on their side of the ball. Keontay Ingram will probably share with Damien Williams on the ground with Demercado missing. With the unknown at QB I can’t talk about the pass-catchers. It could be a rough day for them and I’m sure I’ll have the Browns elite defense on DK tonight.
The Browns “welcome back” Deshaun Watson which I guess is an upgrade on PJ Walker? They’ve been grinding out results without the most expensive man in the league but even with him it wasn’t impressive on offense. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have been fine on the ground and Amari Cooper the one worthy piece on offense. They traded away Donovan Peoples-Jones this week so I guess they trust in, er… Elijah Moore? Who has, in fairness had a lot of targets and done very little.
Browns should win, obviously but I can’t take them covering 13 points on a 38 point spread. Kareem Hunt o6.5 rec. yards would be my look but I don’t want much to do with this game. Jerome Ford o50.5 rush yards – That seems a low line for a player who could top 15+ attempts in a walk over.
Bears +9.5 @ Saints: 41
The backup QBs continue as Tyson Bagent retains his spot for the Bears. He’s been fine, but without the support of much talent around him he’s never going to impress on a weekly basis. Dont’a Foreman had a blowup game before being stifled by the Chargers last week and he’ll do well to have a big game against a solid Saints defense. Cole Kmet at TE and DJ Moore at the go-to guys, not much beyond them.
The Saints should win their division but they’ve not been impressive this year, Derek Carr is who he is, he loves the dump offs to Alvin Kamara who’s had a ton of receptions since returning (although a quiet one last week) – Michael Thomas and Chris Olave are a good duo and Olave stepped up a little last week with a TD and Shaheed is their usual deep threat, he also scored last week. Taysom Hill did his usual gadget plays and ended up with a couple as well, 7/2 is good for him but he’s impossible to judge each week.
Saints should win, but like the Ravens I won’t take them covering such a big spread. Lean under on the total as I’m not sure the Bears will add too much to it.
Rams +3.5 @ Packers: 38
Another backup as Brett Rypien is expected to start for the Rams against someone who probably should be a backup in Green Bay.
You have to imagine the Rams will go back to the ground game to help Brett Rypien at QB for them this week, Darrel Henderson the lead man there with Royce Freeman chipping in as well. Puka Nacua looks like he’ll play so they will likely have him or Cooper Kupp open on most plays as one of them tends to but with a backup QB it’s all a bit dodgy.
Jordan Love started the season well enough but things have fallen off recently and they’re struggling to move the ball, Aaron Jones doesn’t seem to be getting healthy and AJ Dillon isn’t good enough. The passing game has a lot of options but no real star so everything seems a struggle for them. Romeo Doubs the pick of players there, he scored again last week.
Neither offense is very good, neither defense is very good so I’m at a loss here really but the fact the Packers are only 3.5 point faves against a backup QB who’s never been very good tells you all you need to know about how they’re viewed this year.
Vikings +4 @ Falcons: 37.5
The shit-show at QB continues with Kirk Cousins done for the season meaning that Jaren Hall gets his first start for the Vikes while Taylor Heinicke starts for the Falcons who finally called time on Desmond Ridder (for now) last week.
Once again the change at QB makes this very tough to call. Jordan Addison had stepped up with the absence of Justin Jefferson but I can’t have anything to do with him or TJ Hockenson now that Captain Kirk has gone. The run game has been average although the lean to Cam Akers worked out well as he found the endzone last week and you’d imagine they’d be leaning on him and Mattison more here.
I do actually like Heinicke, he is mobile enough to enable them to use him as a rusher as they did with Ridder but he should keep things safer than the incumbent he replaces. I’ve no idea how the run game will go as they do weird things every week with Bijan and Allgeier. They are without Drake London which is a big hit, and SHOULD mean more for Kyle Pitts who I’d hope they move to WR more oft than not. which, in part could mean more for Jonnu Smith at TE, or even Mycole Pruitt at big odds! 14/1 the best at 365 for him.
We don’t know how the Vikings will be but it’s arguably an upgrade for the Falcons so I’ll be taking them to win and cover at home. Kyle Pitts o3.5 receptions – 5/7 looks tasty.
Buccaneers +2.5 @ Texans: 40
TWO STARTING QBS! It’s a miracle! Although it doesn’t help me as I’ve been terrible at judging both these teams this year.
Baker Mayfield is fine, he’s got weapons and a good defense and he’ll do the little that he’s required to do to keep the Buccs in contention. Mike Evans has had a good season he scored again last week to make it 5 on the season and a score in 5 of their 7 games with no doubles so far. Chris Godwin finally had a good game as well, if they can have those two functioning then they’ll be fine in the passing game. Rachaad White has had one good game this season, last Thursday night where he caught a lot of dump-offs, the might be more Chase Edmonds going forward though.
CJ Stroud has had a solid start to his career but shit the bed as a fave last week. Dameon Pierce is out for them so the run game goes to Devin Singletary, great? The passing game stuttered and this is a tough test for the youngsters so I’m off on Tank Dell and Nico Collins this week, maybe a Dalton Schultz game?
I’ll take the Bucs getting the points on the road in a low-scoring affair. I’d have liked a receiving line on Edmonds but there’s nothing out there, so maybe a nibble on 8/1 anytime at Coral.
Commanders +3 @ Patriots: 41
I don’t seem to have any ability to judge these two teams on a weekly basis either, the Commanders are much more exciting to watch but the Pats can grind out results.
Not much to talk about here really, Sam Howell has had some good games but thrown in some shockers and could have issues against a well organised Patriots defense. He’s without Curtis Samuel this week so could/should be more for my man Logan Thomas at TE. Terry McLaurin has been involved more recently as the most talented guy on their offense and Brian Robinson has run well. Jamison Crowder has been a frequent pickup in fantasy and he did score on one of his 7 receptions last week, but he’s not for me, and you can’t get a reception line on him anyway.
The Pats aren’t fun, but have ground out some wins with solid defense, they’ve got a hype player of their own in Demario Douglas, good for him. I went in on Stevenson last week and he did fuck all, but he faces a poorer defense this week. Pats defense is good.
The Commies broke up with Young and Sweaty this week as Chase Young went to the 49ers and Montez Sweat got a big deal in Chicago so they may well struggle to generate pressure on a shit Patriots offense.
Nothing solid from me but I’ve got to lean to the stinking Patriots covering.
Colts -2.5 @ Panthers: 44
I shocked myself on the Full10Yards betting pod (each Thursday at 1830-ish live on YouTube and X) by suggesting this was my best spread bet of the week and I still haven’t convinced myself that continuing to fade the Panthers is the right move!
The Colts have been able to put up points this year with Gardner Minshew throwing INTs, TDs or recently, both in games. He’s capable of hanging with anyone and if they trail, he will throw the ball a lot. Jonathan Taylor looks good now he’s up to speed a little more and Zack Moss has been good helping out the run game. Michael Pittman the 1 in the passing game and with my guy Josh Downs probably missing they’ll be looking to him more frequently here.
The Panthers got off their 0 wins last week but I don’t think they’ll win too many more this year, the bigger news for me as a Miles Sanders truther is that they’ve dumped him to the bench with Chuba Hubbard now getting the start at RB, making his 47.5 rushing yards look like a solid over play. Adam Thielen is the only real guy in the passing game, another 8 receptions for him last year taking him to 57 this season, good for 6th in the league.
Actually quite a few props I like here, Jonathan Taylor o14.5 rec. yards, Chuba Hubbard o47.5 rush yards and it would probably be sensible to take the over on Thielen receptions, but it’s not easy to take o6.5 on anyone. I do think the Colts are the better team so I’ll stick with them winning and covering and over on the total.
Cowboys +3 @ Eagles: 47
Nobody retains the NFC East, and for that trend to continue the Cowboys need to win against their rivals here. That won’t be easy against arguably the best team in the league.
The Cowboys had their best game of the season when killing the Rams last weekend, both defense and offense clicked as they finally realised that throwing it to CeeDee Lamb lots would be a sensible option as he had by some way his best game of the season. Dak threw 4 TDs and spread the ball around well with Lamb leading things, he got Brandin Cooks involved with a TD typical to his skill-set and Jake Ferguson opened the scoring from the TE spot, a position they like to target in the redzone. Pollard was fine on the ground again, I try not to retain pre-season feelings but I do feel like I was correct on my projection for him this year as an average back. Micah Parsons is always fun to watch and looked great against the Rams OL last week.
The Eagles marched on with a high-scoring win against the Commanders who tend to cause them issues. The Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown connection has been immense in recent weeks as AJB set records for games with 125+ receiving yards making it 6 games in a row and adding 5 scores in that time. They’ll be happy that Devonta Smith finally had a game this year as well and Dallas Goedert will need to add something against his name-sake tonight. The run game has faltered a little with D’Andre Swift slowing to under 4 ypc but it is capable of blowing up and the “Brotherly Shove” or whatever you want to call it remains tough to stop. Julio Jones emerged from nowhere to score last week on his only reception.
This should be a cracking game, I have to take the Eagles to win and cover a field goal at home, the atmosphere will be impressive and I’d go under on the total, these teams know each other very well.
Giants +1.5 @ Raiders: 37.5
I think it’s safe to say this game won’t get many looks on Redzone with Daniel Jones taking on Aiden O’Connell.
The return of Jones means they don’t have to go to Tommy DeVito who came into the Giants lineup after Tyrod went down last week and the team managed to end a game with -9 passing yards when sacks are included, yet someone still nearly won their game against the Jets. Insane stuff with Barkley finishing with 36 rushing attempts. Darren Waller is on to IR again with his hamstring injury, so fuck knows what will happen in the passing game for them, I guess another 30+ carries for Saquon? Which makes 76.5 see relatively low…
The Raiders have cleaned house once again with Josh McDaniels out the door and Jimmy Garoppolo on to the bench for the rest of the season as they look to the rookie who looked good in pre-season. The mantra this week must surely be to target Davante Adams constantly and see how things go, the former Packers man hasn’t been quiet in expressing his anger at the utter ineptitude of their offense so far this year, but the bookies seem to think that too and there’s no way I can take o6.5 receptions for him. Michael Mayer has looked useful recently and Jakobi Meyers has done as well as possible in such a shitty team.
The Giants have the better QB and defense, so I’ll lean to them winning on the road in Vegas in a low-scoring game.
Bills +2.5 @ Bengals: 50.5
The best game of the night takes pride of place in prime-time as a resurgent Bengals host the Bills in Cincinnati. If you’re a fan of manufactured fun then the Stripes of the crowd should be good to see tonight as they’re asking fans to come in specific colours depending on which section they’re sitting in.
A weird position for me as a Bengals fan as I’m very confident of this matchup after last season and the performance from them last week.
The Bills have been a little hit-and-miss this season, they obviously have the talent on offense with Josh Allen getting it down with his legs and his arm which can complete any pass he wants, but then you see losses to the Jets and Patriots and things don’t look as rosey when they face good defenses. Stefon Diggs has had a good year with at least 6 receptions in each game this season but it’s his team-mate I’ll be looking to for a receptions prop as Gabe Davis was involved in more 3 WR sets last week and his aDot dropped significantly as a result of Dawson Knox being out of the game. That will mean more for Dalton Kincaid who scored at 5/2 last week and maybe a punt play on Khalil Shakir who may revert to their main downfield threat. Shakir o16.5 for longest reception looks interesting. James Cook has been fine on the ground but they brought in Leonard Fournette this week to add a bit more power in the run game with Damien Harris moving to IR.
Defensively I have always had issues with the rating of the Bills and injuries have hurt them on that side of the ball this year, they are vulnerable.
The Bengals looked like the team we thought they would be this season coming off their bye week to dismantle the 49ers last week. Joe Burrow looked at full health shrugging off pass-rushers to complete a career-high 19 in a row against a good defense as the Bengals moved the ball at ease. Ja’Marr Chase will always be the 1, but Tee Higgins looked healthy and Tyler Boyd had a good one as well, they really do need more from Irv Smith at TE, but the three they have at WR are up there as the best in the league. Joe Mixon has been running well this year as well and burst through some big holes last week for his best game of the season. I do like the look of Andrei Iosivas (Yoshi) as a WR4 in the passing game as well, he got himself free on a scramble play for his second TD of the season last week.
The Bengals defense has caused issues for opponents for most of the year and did so in both games against the Bills last season (I think the Bengals would have won comfortably in the postponed game last year) and I think they’ll do the same here, they do give up yards but tighten up in the redzone and the LB pairing of Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt is one of the best out there.
I honestly think the Bengals win this one and cover the spread, they looked imperious last week and if Burrow can be near that level they should have enough from their defense to deal with the Bills and keep up with the rest of the AFC North with the Steelers having already (somehow) won again and the Ravens and Browns expected to win tonight. Dalton Kincaid – 12/5 looks generous again, but I was hoping for higher on Shakir. I don’t mind 15/2 (William Hill) on Yoshi finding the endzone again.
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