God damn it, time moves too quickly in the NFL and we’re already on to Week 10. It’s another Germany week although after last week it seems like a cruel joke that we’re lumped with a seasoned rivalry which has fallen off markedly since the days of Brady vs Manning… Minshew vs. Mac just doesn’t have the same gravitas about it.
A quick look back at least week before getting into things this week, the Bengals fairly comfortably beat the Bills on MNF to make it five in a row and keep up with the rest of the teams in a dominant AFC North with the Steelers, Browns and Ravens all winning in Week 9, the NFC West has been dismantled by the best division in the league this season. The Eagles beat the Cowboys in the corker last week to take themselves to 8-1 going into their bye week and essentially sealing the NFC East title, the first team to repeat that achievement since 2005, and there were some other games as well which don’t really matter all that much.
Week 10 brings with it a good early slate, a debatable late slate and once again some fucking awful prime-time games which kicked off with a stonking 16-13 for the Bears over the Panthers on TNF this week. SNF sees the Jets travel to Vegas and MNF is the Broncos v Bills. Fuck me, even if Aaron Rodgers was involved why the hell was them vs. Vegas a prime choice? Bills vs Broncos, fine, I rarely watch MNF anyway.
At least NEXT WEEK starts with the Bengals probably losing to the Ravens on TNF. Something to look forward to.
Right, my DK contest is here – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/153915593 – I have been a shambles this year so come take my money
Colts -2 vs. Patriots: 43 (Germany)
So, yeah, we’ve got Gardner Minshew vs. Mac Jones coming to Germany this week, it will obviously be sold out as all the European games are but I don’t see it being overly entertaining.
I do actually quite like watching Gardner Minshew on the field, you never know if it will be 3 INTs, 5 TDs, or maybe even both, but the charm seems to have gone off him a little as he takes another start for the Colts. He has some weapons in Michael Pittman and Josh Downs who should be fine to go this week and the running game has been effective with first Zack Moss and now Jonathan Taylor taking the main role in the backfield. Taylor finished with a fairly dismal 18 for 47 last weekend, but did score a TD through the air and that’s probably the area I’ll be attacking this week in props.
The Patriots are horrible to watch, Mac Jones isn’t good enough for the NFL and the offensive team they’ve “built” around him is one of the worst in the league. Personally I’m glad my views on Juju have proven true (although he does have a lovely signature) and he’s barely involved in games. They do seem to be getting things sorted a little on the ground with Stevenson and Zeke but the passing game is horrible. Hunter Henry has at least shown he’s still capable.
I despise the current Patriots team, but I still can’t ignore Bill Belichick despite it looking clear that it was largely Brady taking them to wins. He can still organise a defense and will cause issues for Minshew. The Pats record over in Europe is great as well which give me pause. HOWEVER I shall still be taking the Colts to win and cover. Props for me here – Jonathan Taylor o18.5 receiving yards, slow starts are the thing for Europe so I’ll go for u7.5 first quarter points as well.
49ers -3 @ Jaguars: 45
The early Sky game was a fairly easy choice, as the “UKs team” hosts the 49ers, who are probably the most supported team from the golden age of Channel 4 coverage back in the day.
On first look this seems a weird handicap, both teams are coming off their bye but one is on a 3-game losing streak and on the road to a team on a 5-game winning streak including 2 in a London, so the Jags getting 3 are an easy pick?
Both teams are coming back off their bye week and the 49ers are welcoming back Deebo Samuel which should aid the passing game. They are still without Trent Williams though which is a big miss for them on the offensive line, and the Jags have actually been able to provide some pass rush this year.
I’m not a fan of Bruck Purdy, I don’t think he will be able to get things done when things aren’t perfect and it looks like that’s fairly accurate recently, so I guess for me in this one it’s whether the return of Deebo off-sets the loss of Trent for another week. It does probably mean the end of the resurgence of Kittle whose numbers are far higher with Deebo out, but could be a bounce for Aiyuk with softer coverage. What we do know is that Christian McCaffrey will probably score, he’s 8/15 or so to make it a record-breaking 18-in-a-row with a score, and I wouldn’t back against it; I will note that their run game has been pretty shit recently though so any yardage props should arguably lean under.
Fair play to the Jags, they took advantage of their extended stay in the UK and no bye week coming back to the States and notched up some wins, mainly on the back of Travis Etienne who has 7 TDs in their last 4 games with 6 on the deck and 1 through the air, it’s safe to say he’s been running well and this 49ers D isn’t what it used to be against the run. They are without Zay Jones which I previously would have mocked as being insignificant but he does seem to be a key part of this team. Calvin Ridley has sparked but seems unreliable and Christian Kirk seems similar.
Honestly? I got nothing. I’d definitely lean to the 49ers getting things right over the bye week but I can’t bet on them doing it. Weirdly anything above 1/2 for CMC is arguably value although I’d never bet it. I’d say 49ers win and cover, and under on the total but there is zero confidence in any of that!
Browns +6.5 @ Ravens: 38
HYPE HYPE HYPE!!!! Wow, I respect the Ravens, and like any sensible person, I hate the Browns, but this line seems like it’s been going up daily and I just can’t buy that. This is a match of 2 of the best 3 defenses in the league.
I don’t think the Browns have much on offense; Amari Cooper is good, but there’s nothing outside of him. Deshaun Watson is not good, Elijah Moore doesn’t do much and then you’re down to a man who set himself alight. The run game is fine but Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are backups for a reason. The Browns defense though, is, I think, the best in the league.
Negatives for the Ravens…? Honestly, there’s not much. They’ve dicked some NFC opponents and now have to deal with their own division, and it’s there where I have slight doubt. Lamar Jackson is thriving in the new offense where he doesn’t entirely have to do everything. They’re running the ball with Gus coming off a light workload and rookie Keaton Mitchell who will play after a hamstring strain, looking for another score as probable third choice behind Justice Hill.
Ravens should win, but there’s no way in hell I’d take any team in the AFC North to beat another by 7 points so a big lean to the Browns. Under seems likely but I can’t do it.
Packers +3 @ Steelers: 39
I know a lot of people on the Packers getting points this week due to the ineptitude of the Steelers offense which, despite their record, has been out-gained in every single game this year. So I get it, but I’m not willing to go against the Steelers in this one.
The Packers aren’t a good football team, Jordan Love started well but has been poor recently with overthrows and poor choices. That rules out the pass-catchers as viable options for bets for me, and the run game hasn’t been great even with Aaron Jones back alongside AJ Dillon. If I was picking someone on the Packers offense for a prop it would be Dontayvion Wicks o12.5 as he’s been more involved recently with injuries to others, 17,28 and 49 yards in their last three games.
The Steelers… man they do it every year. It’s never fun, there doesn’t seem to be any cohesion but their defense keeps them close for three quarters and apparently Kenny Pickett is a god in the 4th quarter of games where they sneak wins. George Pickens is proving why teams overlooked him with his childish pettiness but the return of Diontae Johnson is good for them. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are an average 1-2 punch. Their defense though… It is VERY good. The AFC North are all arguably top 10 and the Steelers are near the top of it.
I’m staying away from this one, if anything look in-play when the Steelers are bound to be trailing after 3. Dontayvion Wicks o1.5 receptions – 27/20 I will go for him at plus odds for 2 catches.
Texans +6.5 @ Bengals : 47
This should be a cracking game, the Texans coming off a record setting performance from rookie CJ Stroud last week as he finished with 470 yards and 5 TDs, having 3 players with over 100 yards receiving in that game. The Bengals won against the Bills on Monday night but injuries are affecting both teams this week which makes things a little more interesting.
The Texans are likely without Nico Collins who is probably their WR1 so they’ll have to rely on rookie Tank Dell, Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz maybe even more than they did last week where they all went over 100 yards against a pass-funnel defense. Maybe John Metchie will get a little more action. The run game is without Dameon Pierce again, so isn’t likely to be very good led by Devin Singletary.
The Bengals are definitely without Tee Higgins with a hamstring injury and could be without Ja’marr Chase with a back injury, although I do expect him to go from what I’ve seen. If he doesn’t then there’s a lot of weight on Tyler Boyd and the bit-part guys in the form of Trenton Irwin, Andrei Iosivas and the TEs who stepped up last week, Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample, but it should be more Irv Smith who doesn’t seem to have got things figured out just yet. The Bengals defense rarely lets them down and should cause issues for a rookie QB even if he has only thrown 1 pick all year. Chase is apparently 50/50 and with the Ravens coming up on TNF next week, it does make sense to rest him, he’s a game-time decision, so wait and see unfortunately.
I like the Texans on the spread here, I think they’ll be able to keep things close and the injuries for the Bengals worry me. Due to that I’d lean under on the total as well. Longer shot on Andrei Iosivas at 11/2 (Hills/PP) to find the endzone, he seems to get open on scramble drills and has scored a few times this year already.
Saints -2.5 @ Vikings: 41
An interesting one here too with Joshua Dobbs now in at QB for the Vikings. The Saints scraped a win after 5 turnovers vs. the Bears last week while the Vikes beat the hapless Falcons.
The Saints have moved the ball well for the most part but are proving useless in the Red Zone, but maybe they’ve got things figured out with Taysom Hill getting involved in that area? Alvin Kamara has played well since his return, Chris Olave has stepped up recently but they’ll want more from Michael Thomas especially after the incidents in his personal life this week. Shaheed is the chunk play guy but his line is too high for me these days.
Justin Jefferson has been activated from IR but won’t play this week so Jordan Addison likely has the main role again, but with a new QB there we saw the ball moved around a lot last week, Trishton Jackson, Brandon Powell, Johnny Mudnt?! TJ Hockenson is still there and will likely lead in targets once more. It was an incredible performance from Dobbs who barely knew the names of players let alone the plays being called in, but he pulled it out of the bag and his mobility was a big part of that. They will be without Cam Akers who did his achilles again after looking like he might be a key addition for the team.
My heart wants the Vikings here, but the Saints defense is capable of shutting down Dobbs, who despite the fun he provides does not have a good record as starter. Over on the total though. Dobbs at 26.5 rushing yards… he probably goes over.
Titans +2.5 @ Buccs: 39
This game is a little more interesting with Will Levis in there and he’s officially the starter now even with Ryan Tannehill back, they’re coming off 10 days rest after their TNF loss to the Steelers while the Buccs somehow lost to the Texans last week in a high-scoring thriller.
Will Levis looked fine in that Steelers game and with time to prep he should do well against a Bucs team which gave up all the yards through the air last week. Deandre Hopkins proved he could still do with with Levis in there, Kyle Phillips has been OK, Treylon Burks can catch deep balls too and even Chig Okonkwo has had a little more recently. Derrick Henry still leads in carries but Tyjae Spears tends to out-snap him this season.
Baker Mayfield is playing relatively well at QB for the Bucs with Mike Evans his go-to target but he’s recently found dump-offs for Rachaad White are working well with another 4 receptions last week after 7 the week before, he has been running the ball better as well. Cade Otton scored twice last week after doing nothing the rest of the year so that’s not a bet I want to chase. They have a great run defense but have allowed passes against them.
The Titans match up quite well here, they are solid against the run so may force Baker to throw and the Bucs seem far poorer against the pass so Levis could have another big game. Most definitely not a bet but lean to the Titans and over. The line for Henry rec. yards isn’t going up so I’ll probably have a go on o12.5 again, he’s done it 4 games in a row now.
Lions -3 @ Chargers: 48.5
Not a tough choice for the evening Sky game, as these two “potential” teams play against each other. The Lions coming off their bye week and the Chargers off another win against a poor side (the Bears and Jets in a row was handy for them)
The Lions welcome back David Montgomery so it will be interesting to see what the split is between him and Gibbs with him now unleashed. I would imagine the goal-line and short yardage work will be Monty again but Gibbs has shown he’s capable of carrying the load. The passing game is back to near full strength too with Amon-Ra St. Brown leading things and rookie TE Sam LaPorta looking better than the majority of TE’s do in their first year. The Reynolds bros will fill in when needed as well on the ground and through the air and Jameson Williams may have had an intense week of study to find a better connection? Probably not.
The Chargers defense has been winning games recently against poor teams as they’ve been able to get a lot of pressure up front but this is one of the better offensive lines in the league they’re going up against. Their offense hasn’t received from the loss of Mike Williams and with Josh Palmer out as well they’re down to Keenan Allen and part-timers in the passing corps, Gerald Everett needs to step up there as Justin Herbert can’t be the greatest QB ever throwing 5 yards per attempt.
The Lions are the better team but I don’t like taking NFC teams against the AFC even if it is the Chargers. Neither team inspire confidence in me but the Lions have shown this year they can beat decent teams while I don’t think the Chargers have. The over feels the right side, but it’s a bit risky.
Falcons -1.5 @ Cardinals: 43.5
Two loser teams who love to lose. The Falcons coaching is inept and the Cardinals roster isn’t good enough to win games.
I have no idea what the Falcons are doing, they constantly chop and change personnel and it’s not working. Bijan Robinson is in and out of the game with Tyler Allgeier coming in, the passing game has no focus and defensively they’ll give up points. Kyle Pitts should be leading things but is frequently out-targeted by Jonnu Smith (who did show his speed in his long TD run last week) It’s impossible to land bets on them so I won’t try this week.
The Cardinals have Kyler Murray and James Conner back so will look very different this week to their shutout last week, but I can’t trust Kyler coming of his knee injury in his first game back. It should mean better times for Marquise Brown and the rest of the pass-catchers but none of them are studs.
A watch for me here, the Falcons really should get things done but I’m not backing them any more. Taylor Heinicke is 20/23 to throw an INT, Kyler 6/5 to do so, a good chance both do despite neither defense being very good.
Giants +17 @ Cowboys: 39
EH! It’s me Tommy DeVito! The mafia crime boss starts for the Giants once more with Daniel Jones out for the season. The Cowboys come in to this off their close loss to the Eagles last week, unsurprisingly this is the largest spread of the year.
So, 25+ carries for Saquon Barkley? In fairness, DeVito did throw a TD pass last week to the Raiders with Wan’Dale Robinson the lucky recipient. They did try and spread the ball around, Darius Slayton led them in targets catching 4 of his 7 for 59 yards, he is usually a target of mine for yardage bets but this is not a good team this year.
The Cowboys should have a walkover and it could be a chance to try and get their run-game going as Tony Pollard has been proving my assumptions right so far on his ability to carry the offense. Ceedee Lamb has stepped up in recent weeks and Jake Ferguson is looking near LaPorta levels in terms of impact in his first year in the league. I’ll be honest, I’d rather Gallup and Cooks did something rather than Turpin and Tolbert, but the Cowboys are showing they’ve got players at least. Dak has been playing very well recently as well, he won’t need to here but he will try and maintain that level.
The Giants can’t score more than 10 points, can the Cowboys score 30? Probably. Lean to them covering the huge spread and under on the total. Argh, Slayton is 27/20 on o2.5 receptions, it’s a big risk but I do like the odds!
Commanders +6 @ Seahawks: 44.5
The Commies won in New England with a decent defensive performance despite giving away their top two guys in the pass rush while the Seahawks were humped by the Ravens as they lost against another AFC North team.
Sam Howell has been fun, and throwing the ball a lot with 9 different players making a catch last week, led by Terry McLaurin. Jahan Dotson scored his first of the season and Logan Thomas has been a good target at TE for them this year. Brian Robinson has been fine at RB and Antonio Gibson can chip in with some action as well.
The Seahawks are an average team and that’s fine against most teams in the league, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet should provide a good 1-2 punch, the trio of WRs they’ve got are very good so it’s really down to Geno Smith who is who he is. He is fine, just… fine. He can work well under no pressure but when it comes he struggles. They are a decent defense on the whole despite getting stuffed last week and will cause issues for the Commanders.
Lean to the Commanders getting the points, I think it should be closer than the 6 available, and under on the total. Nothing I like on props.
Jets -1 @ Raiders: 36.5
Another thriller lined up for Sunday night, Zach Wilson vs. Aiden O’Connell… Thanks NFL, at least it’s good news for the UK audience as there’s no need to stay up for this one.
The Jets were overwhelmed by pass rush last week and Zach Wilson showed that he will, in fact, let down the Jets season. Breece Hall should get a lot of the ball in a close game in this one, but Michael Carter has been increasingly involved in the passing game, annoyingly still no lines on him. Garrett Wilson is their one good pass catcher, the rest are chumps who Rodgers wanted but none are any good.
The Raiders got the new-coach-bounce last week and a very easy matchup to start to post-Josh McDaniels era, last week was the biggest HT lead the team had had since 2010, which was against the Josh McDaniels Broncos. Josh Jacobs had a big game and Devante Adams led them in targets, although 4 from 7 isn’t exactly impressive. This week they face one of the better defenses in the league, it’s gonna be a rough one.
I don’t want either team here, I think the Jets defense will get the job done so I get why they’re faves against a rookie QB. But neither team should be favoured here really. Under on the total, nothing on props.
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