Week 11 of the season is here and we’re gifted with 1 whole game between teams with over 0.500 records, and it’s a game where arguably neither should have one as the Browns take on the Steelers, unsurprisingly though it is the early televised game and it will be competitive even if not high-scoring. It rounds out an AFC North double as the Ravens beat the Bengals on Thursday night to go to 8 wins on the season.
Falling to 6 losses at this point of the season could get fans looking towards the draft as wins become increasingly vital, it’s a pivotal week across the league and there’s some interesting games on the slate.
The AFC North is wide open as the Bengals season is essentially over now with Joe Burrow likely done for the year. Mark Andrews was knocked out for the year as well with an ankle injury, and with the news of Deshaun Watson having surgery as well it’s been a good week for the Steelers.
The prime-time games this week should be fun at least with the Vikings and Broncos tonight and Monday night featuring the top seeds in each conference (as I write this) the Chiefs and Eagles facing off.
The Draftkings contest has renewed here – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/154334162 I might try and do well this week, but probably not.
Steelers +2.5 @ Browns: 33
A total of THIRTY-THREE is quite something, and with two of the best defense in the league on show I can see why, but even with the Browns starting rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson it still seems a little on the low side.
The Steelers look like they may have figured something out and their anaemic offense could start pulling their weight as Jaylen Warren takes the starting RB job away from Najee Harris. He’s been running well as a two and the change has apparently been made this week although it will likely still be a fairly even split between the two. Kenny Pickett is distinctly average but does, in general, come alive in the 4th quarter and with Diontae Johnson and George Pickens down the field he can lob it down there and if it’s close they’ll probably come down with it. They do welcome back Pat Friermuth at TE this week as well which could be massive for them.
The defenses should be where the game is won this weekend though and it’s probably TJ Watt vs. Myles Garrett for DPOY. They have very similar stats and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top tonight. The Steelers have a habit of creating turnovers at key moments, it’s not usually repeatable but somehow they keep winning games for their team.
The Browns are without mega-money Watson for the season, and the line moved an entire 1.5 points off the back of that which shows the disrespect people have for him. They have been winning games on the back of their defense as well but will need a lot more from DRT than we saw in his one start this season where the Ravens destroyed them. Amari Cooper is the main man, but Elijah Moore will likely get a lot of targets in the shorter games. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have been splitting carries with Hunt tending to get the more important work in recent weeks.
For me, Myles Garrett is the better of him and Watt, but they’re both quality players so will be fun to watch Garrett wrecking the Steelers offensive line here.
I’ve got to lean over on this total, defensive scores could get there, it’s just too low a line. I’ll have to take the Steelers as well. They shouldn’t have won most of their games this season but here we are, so I can’t back against them getting points. Jaylen Warren o36.5 rush yards
Cardinals +5.5 @ Texans: 48
Kyler Murray and James Conner both returned last week and the Cardinals won their second game of the sesaon against a horrible Falcons team. Murray looked as mobile as ever although they did bring in Clayton Tune for a QB sneak by the goal-line, he did still rush in for a score himself. Trey McBride became the first Cardinals TE for a million years to top 100 yards as he hit 131 from 8 receptions with Rondale Moore second in targets behind him. We have seen Hollywood Brown targeted frequently by Murray so it might be a wait and see to figure where the ball is likely to go.
CJ Stroud is 1/20 for OROY and it’s rightly deserved as he’s been fantastic in recent weeks, something I got to see when watching the whole Bengals vs. Texans game, he’s getting protected well, he gets time and he’s hitting players who are wide open 20+ yards down the field, it’s a great job by the whole system. He is without Nico Collins and Noah Brown this week though which could be big for them, leaving really only Tank Dell at WR for them. It should mean more for Dalton Schultz at TE as the ball has to go somewhere, although Robert Woods did return with a near-TD last weekend. Devin Singletary will get the load at RB again with Dameon Pierce once again missing out, he hit 150 on the ground last week and the Cards defense isn’t good.
Should be a fun game to watch, I’d lean to the Cardinals keeping it close, but the over is where a bet on the main lines should be going. Robert Woods o34.5 rec. yards
Bears +8 @ Lions: 48
The Bears welcome back Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert from IR which obviously helps their offense as fair bit. Bagent did fine in relief but Fields can do far more with the ball. Herbert will help their run game and should form a decent duo with D’onta Foreman. DJ Moore will probably go back to leading things in the passing game with Cole Kmet second up in that area.
The Lions are looking very fun and have killed most of the poorer teams they’ve faced this season. David Montgomery and Jamhyr Gibbs look like they’ll be splitting drives and both found the endzone easily last weekend. Amon-Ra St. Brown is moving up with the best WRs in the league, he and LaPorta will do most of the work in the passing game.
Lions should win and I like them to cover as well. Nothing on the total. Montgomery and Gibbs both to score – 11/4 (Skybet)
Cowboys -10.5 @ Panthers: 42.5
The Cowboys won by 30+ at home last week, will they stomp on their next NFC team as well? Probably. Dak Prescott is playing very well, CeeDee Lamb is top 5 this year at WR and they’ve found something in Jake Ferguson as well. They even managed to get Michael Gallup a TD last weekend, he was 5th or 6th target behind Cooks and the likes but they dominated so much they got him involved in things. Tony Pollard may never score a TD again though, but Rico Dowdle looked good when he was given the chances.
The Panthers are terrible, they made the wrong choice at QB and it’s hurting them. Adam Thielen will get most of the targets with no-one else really worth a mention. Chuba Hubbard, I assume, is still the de facto starter although Sanders probably had his best game as the 2 last weekend. They’re fine on defense.
I don’t see how the Panthers keep up with the Cowboys scoring so I’d lean to them covering the -10.5 Nothing on the total. Rico Dowdle – 7/2 (Skybet)
Chargers -3 @ Packers: 44
Chargers gonna Chargers. They need to win this one to have any chance of making the play-offs, and like normal, it’s a game they SHOULD win, but like normal I won’t go anywhere near them. Austin Ekeler is running well between the 20s but struggling to get into the endzone, they’re without most of their pass-catchers again and Keenan Allen has a dodgy shoulder. It didn’t stop him last week but is a worry as games go on. Donald Parham the main TE with Everett once again missing out.
The Packers started the season well and out-played the Steelers last week, should have won that game but didn’t. The run-game isn’t great with Aaron Jones not looking his old self and AJ Dillon being very average. Romeo Doubs looks like he’s taken over as the WR1 ahead of Watson and Dontayvion Wicks has been getting invovled in recent weeks as well, although Luke Musgrave rightly gets more targets.
Chargers should win and cover, but I won’t be taking them on the spread. Lean over on the total, neither defense is very good.
Raiders +13.5 @ Dolphins: 46
The Raiders have won 2-in-a-row with a new head coach but they were at home and facing terrible teams, so this will probably be a harsh come-down for them. They got the run game going with Jacobs and are targetting Adams more but they’re not exactly high-value targets with Aidan O’Connell at QB. Jakobi Meyers has looked good as the 2 there.
The Dolphins have smashed all shit teams and should do the same here with De’von Achane returning at RB alongside Raheem Mostert. I won’t be backing him on his return but it wouldn’t be shocking if he hit 100+ again. Tyreek Hill is the main, main man at WR with the majority of the yards and targets, Jaylon Waddle adds a bit as well, behind them there’s not a whole lot in the passing game but that doesn’t matter against bad teams.
Dolphins win and cover. Over on the total but it will need the ‘Fins back towards their dominant best. Ah man, Achane at 49.5 is very tempting! and o13.5 receiving yards… Could be worth the shot despite my hesistancy over his return.
Giants +9 @ Commanders: 38.5
The Giants with Tommy DeVito are the worst team in the league but 9 points? Seems generous to the Commies.
Saquon Barkley has been running very well, the Around the NFL podcast claimed it was the best spell of his career and on a losing team with no passing game it is impressive he’s been able to do anything. The passing game is pretty much non-existent, Slayton lead in targets again but when there’s 14 completions for 86 yards it’s impossible to suggest anything.
Sam Howell has exceeded expectations at QB for the Commies, leading the league in yards at this moment, and he spreads the ball around well as they have 6 players with at least 250 receiving yards. People would like more for Terry McLaurin but the offense is working well enough without over-targeting him. Curtis Samuel has scored well for them this year, Logan Thomas gets invovled a lot and Jahan Dotson has had some nice-looking TDs as well. They’re all supported by Brian Robinson who’s been very good on the ground for them.
Commanders should definitely win, and they should do it easily but I can’t imagine anyone wanting to take them winning by 10. Brian Robinson – 11/10 (Skybet), Chris Rodriguez is 13/2, worth a look in-play with Gibson banged up.
Titans +6.5 @ Jaguars: 40
So, Will Levis was a one-game wonder? He was stumped by the Buccs last week and after 4 TDs in one game it’s been very disappointing for him and the Titans offense. Derrick Henry seems like he’s finally hit that hill, and Deandre Hopkins can’t do it all at WR. Chig Okonkwo has had more targets with Levis but hasn’t done much with them. They do have a solid run defense still but were killed through the air last weekend.
The Jaguars were humbled by the 49ers as Trevor Lawrence looked back to year one but the Titans won’t bring that amount of pressure this week so should be a bounce back for them. They had looked good with Etienne on the ground but they’ve got issues finding Calvin Ridley with the ball. Christian Kirk has helped out but they need more from more guys on offense. Zay Jones returning will help as Lawrence seems to like him, he’s officially questionable.
I like the Titans to keep it close in a relatively low-scoring game.
Buccs +13 @ 49ers: 42
Not the best choice for the evening Sky game but it could be fun with Baker Mayfield not looking bad this year. He’s finding Mike Evans very easily and keeps going there even when he drops easy TDs. Rachaad White has been useful on the ground and on dump-offs with a lot of targets in recent weeks as Baker seems to have finally realised he doesn’t have to be the hero. Cade Otton and Chris Godwin help out in the passing game and Chase Edmonds isn’t a bad RB2 for them either. They still have a very good defense especially against the run.
The 49ers got back Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel and went back to being dominant against the Jags. Give Purdy time and he’ll figure things out. Brandon Aiyuk scored last week but SOMEHOW Christian McCaffrey didn’t for the first time in a season and a half, making it just 17 games in a row despite them targeting him for the whole final drive of the game. Kittle scored a huge TD as well.
49ers should win, but I’d lean to the Buccs keeping it below 2-TDs. Over on the total. Rachaad White o3.5 receptions – 20/27
Jets +7.5 @ Bills: 39.5
Zach Wilson has the faith of the coaching staff despite this being historically one of the worst offenses ever. They haven’t scored a TD for 36 drives now and things probably won’t change despite the Bills defense being poor. Breece Hall should get more of the ball and I guess Dalvin Cook might mix in more after they released Michael Carter in the week, I thought he’d been doing a fine job as a pass-catching back but apparently not. Garrett Wilson is questionable for them, if he misses it could be even more atrocious. Of course they have a fantastic defense which seems to know how to play the Bills.
Josh Allen has always been hit or miss and it’s been miss a lot more this season. Stefon Diggs gets his yards but outside of him it’s been rough with Gave Davis not doing much. Dalton Kincaid is looking worthy of his first-round pick though with at least 6 targets in each of their last 4 games. James Cook isn’t great on the ground but is getting the workload still even after fumbling last week.
This won’t be a pretty game, I’d have to lean to the Jets covering and under on the total.
Seahawks +2 @ Rams: 47
The 6-3 Seahawks are underdogs? They’re facing a Rams team getting Matthew Stafford back who are coming off a bye, so maybe?
Geno Smith won’t take this team far in the post-season but he can probably get them there at least, Lockett, Metcalf and increasingly Jaxon Smith-Njigba have been a great trio for them and while Kenneth Walker’s pace has slowed in recent weeks he has still be running with with Zach Charbonnet getting more involved as the 2 as well. Their defense has been pretty good this year and a common foe should help although McVay has a great record vs. the Seahawks.
Stafford returning is big for them as Rypien is not a great backup. It brings the likes of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back into contention as players to look for in the props market, but I can’t figure who will get the ball between the two of them on a weekly basis. Tutu Atwell has been a fair downfield threat as well. They should have Kyren Williams back soon to help the run game which has been mild with Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson back there.
In fairness it should be a close game and as much as I think the wrong team is favoured, it does smell like a trap.
Vikings +3 @ Broncos: 41
Josh Dobbs has been great since moving to the Vikings, and has helped by fantasy team by funneling a ton of targets to TJ Hockenson at TE. They probably won’t have Justin Jefferson back for this one but if they can make it another win with him returning next week they’re in a good spot in the NFC playoff race. Alexander Mattison looks like he’ll play, and they need him with Cam Akers snapping his achilles again. The outsiders have done well with Dobbs at QB with Ty Chandler and Brandon Powell getting TDs in the last fortnight.
The Broncos beat the Bills on Monday night and might have figured things out off their bye week? Maybe? They have been running well all year and Javonte Williams topped 20 carries as well as scoring a receiving TD, it might be time to jump back on his bandwagon. Courtland Sutton continued his good scoring year despite not hitting much in the YPC category and Jerry Juedy did his little bit again. Samaje Perine is always worth a look in receiving yards, he had 35 last week off a line of 13.5.
It looks like this will be a competitive game but I’m drinking the Dobbs Kool-aid and expecting him to guide the Vikes to another win. Josh Dobbs and Courtland Sutton both to score – 11/1 (Skybet)
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