NFL Week 12; Thanksgiving Sunday

A terrific Thursday for me as my post on MrFixItTips landed 5 out of 5 bets on the Thanksgiving football and I added a nice over for Jeff Wilson receiving yards on Friday night for a clean sweep of the early games this week. Time got away from me though and while I shared that post on twitter, I ran out of time to get anything up on here. Which is frustrating.

The Lions suffered a shock loss to the Packers but remain in control of the NFC North, the Cowboys played out a strange game, it seemed like they were toying with the Commanders who improved in the second half but had no killer plays, while the Cowboys got the ball, and scored and ran out another 20 point winner at home as they have done in every game of their cakewalk scheduled season, and the evening closed out with a comfortable win for the 49ers over the Seahawks as they once again look like one of the best teams in the league now they’re back to near full health.

They say the league doesn’t really start until after Thanksgiving so, I guess the season starts now! Patriots at Giants the definite highlight for the week, the battle for a top 3 pick could take a pivotal move… yeah, I can’t imagine many people watching that one on DAZN, not even fans of those teams.

DraftKings League – Come take my money – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/154764130

Jaguars -1.5 @ Texans: 47.5

The first game up on Sky is the correct choice in what should be a very fun affair as the Texans host the Jaguars knowing that a win would give them the sweep over their rivals and remarkably put them top of the AFC South, and there’s good omens for the Texans who have won 10 of last 11 between the two teams. It looks like it’s going towards Pick’em so money coming on the Texans.

The Jaguars had an easy enough win against the Titans a week ago with Zay Jones returning and that helped the passing offense as a whole as Calvin Ridley stepped back into relevance with 103 yards and 2 TDs, Zay Jones being the key to any offense seems strange, but here we are. The run game has fallen off in recent weeks, but Etienne has shown his explosivity this season and will look to bounce back here, they will mix in Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson though. They’re a good team, I just struggle to get excited about them.

The Texans on the other hand have been very exciting with CJ Stroud at the helm and they took their win streak to 3 with a win over the Cardinals with the passing game again being the key, our boy Tank Dell the one with near 150 yards in that one, the trio of WRs tend to split the load around by the week. Noah Brown misses out this week but Nico Collins looks good to go, so it’s Dell, Collins and Robert Woods along with Dalton Schultz at tight end. Dameon Pierce should be back for them on the ground but with Devin Singletary performing very well recently, he might not get a lot of play.

Should be a really fun game to watch, both offenses are capable of big plays and the Texans are the shock of the league, I apologise to CJ Stroud for suggesting the under on his passing yards was the bet this year! I want the Texans to win, and I like the over. There’s a lot of high lines on this one so I’ll avoid props, I was looking at Engram receptions, but 4/6 for o4.5 isn’t tempting.

Panthers +3.5 @ Titans: 36.5

Not quite as interesting as the Sky game, as the Panthers start the man they chose above CJ Stroud once more and I’m sure it won’t go well for them again while on the other side of the ball Will Levis had a good debut and has struggled since.

Adam Thielen is realistically the only person worth talking about on the Panthers roster, he has 10+ targets in 6 of their 10 games this year and at least 5 receptions in 9/10 games, obviously he’s at 6.5 receptions and 10/13 on it… not good. Miles Sanders has looked a little better since he was relegated to RB2 as Chuba Hubbard hasn’t been great.

The Titans have been poor this year as well, Will Levis has an arm on him but is far from reliable, Deandre Hopkins has scored more with him than Tannehill but it’s very hit and miss. Derrick Henry looks like he’s hit his limit finally and while Tyjae Spears usually out-snaps him he’s not done much. That’s about as much as I want to talk about this one.

41/20, above 2/1 for Will Levis to throw 2 TDs against a terrible team they should beat… ARGH it’s tempting, but the Panthers have actually been OK against QBs, they do struggle to keep RBs quiet though so I’ll avoid the u72.5 on Henry I was considering. Overall Titans should win, but I won’t be trusting them to do anything.

Patriots -4.5 @ Giants: 34

The battle for one of the top picks in the draft takes place in NY and we don’t know who will be at QB for the Patriots after Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe shit the bed against the Colts in Germany. The other side of the ball Tommy DeVito looked all right and already has more multiple passing TD games in his career than Kenny Pickett does. A little shocked to see the line moving towards the Pats on this.

Nothing at all to mention on the Pats side of things.

Saquon Barkley has been great in a horrible spot, but the Patriots try and shut down the best thing you do, if he’s slowed the Giants have nothing.

I guess lean under a horribly low total? and towards the Giants getting 4.5 points at home. Realistically a loss is better for both teams though.

Saints -1.5 @ Falcons: 41.5

The NFC South is terrible but this one might be interesting, the Saints have struggled to get the ball across the line this season, while the Falcons are coached by the most frustrating person on earth. Both teams coming off their bye so should be healthy, although Marshon Lattimore has gone on IR. Probably deserved it, the dick.

The Saints have moved the ball fairly well but falter in the Red Zone, they need to get the ball to Chris Olave more, and may have to with Michael Thomas (has anyone ever done so little after getting paid) on IR with a broken fingernail, I doubt we’ll see him again this season. Rashid Shaheed may get more in the shorter game but I like Juwan Johnson to be the main beneficiary. Alvin Kamara still looks great on the ground.

Desmond Ridder is back in at QB for the Falcons, I’m not sure what that means for an offense which is impossible to predict in any given week. I’d hope with the season possibly on the line, coming off a bye week we’d get 80% of snaps for Bijan Robinson but that’s impossible to call. Drake London is very good but with Ridder passing it won’t be pretty.

An important game for the division but hardly a thriller. Have to lean to the Saints covering as I think they’re the better team but the Falcons home record has been good. I’ve a feeling on Johnson, o2.5 receptions at 6/5 my preference over 22.5 yards. Ridder to score a TD at 4/1 and above is a decent price

Steelers -2 @ Bengals: 36.5

The amount of slagging off I do of the Steelers and here we are with the Bengals season over, an inexperienced QB in going up against a defense which always screws the team over, and not only that the Steelers finally fired their OC meaning that we’ll see the true amazing-ness of Kenny Pickett finally unleashed on the league against their division rivals.

The Steelers are unbeatable, it’s remarkable how they’ve been winning games with fewer than 400 yards of offense for seasons in a row, but they look like they’ve figured out their running back issue with Jaylen Warren getting more of the ball and looking good with it. The passing offense has been inept, so it will be interesting to see if it does improve with no-one left to blame. For the record I’m convinced Pickett is 20-30 at QB in the league but I’m told repeatedly that it’s all the OC’s fault, so we’ll see for the rest of the season whether that proves true. Pickens obviously the deep threat but the return of Pat Friermuth will help them immensely as well. 8 Targets, 2 receptions for Diontae Johnson last week is hilarious.

The Bengals season is over with Joe Burrow on IR meaning Jake Browning gets the start against one of the tougher defenses in the league, he looked all right vs. the Ravens last week but this could be very painful for him as the Bengals are always shit vs. divisional opponents. It brings down the whole offense, you’d hope for more Mixon as the run-blocking has been very good but the play-calling is never predictable. Ja’Marr Chase scored the TD from Browning last week, and with Tee Higgins out once more the 37.5 for Boyd could be nice over. Tanner Hudson was, randomly, the guy with Burrow, but who knows with this QB. I do like Iosivas, he and fellow rookie Charlie Jones could get some looks with them both finally healthy.

The Bengals defense has allowed EVERYONE to do whatever they want against them and with Cam Taylor-Britt out this could be a very long evening for Bengals fans.

I like the Steelers to win and cover, all their games are 3-pointers so as long as it stays below that it’s a bet. I won’t be having anything on the total. Jaylen Warren o51.5 rushing yards. (11/2 for 100+ is tempting too)

Buccs +2.5 @ Colts: 44.5

This one could be fun, Baker Mayfield is playing well and Mike Evans may well hit his 1,000 yards once more this year while the Colts are still alive in the AFC South at 5-5 and will look to make a push towards that division with a healthier team.

Rachaad White has been doing very well for them in recent weeks so popping up on the injury report on Saturday is a worry, he’s been catching a lot of dump-offs from Mayfield as the QB has finally realised he doesn’t have to be a hero every game. Mike Evans has scored 7 in 10 games, a max of 1 per game this season, he’ll be the main target once more. Chris Godwin has been fine but rookie Trey Palmer has stepped forward a bit recently.

The Colts have been entertaining with Minshew at QB for them, could be 3 turnovers, could be 3 TDs, could be both, you just never know with him, he won’t give up though. Jonathan Taylor has definitely taken back the RB1 spot now he’s back to health with 40+ carries over the last two games, he’ll get the carries but this is a good run defense he’s going up against. The passing game should have Josh Downs healthier, he’s been one I’ve targeted all year and he’s back to plus money for o4.5 receptions so I’ll be on that while Michael Pittman tends to get more of the yards.

I like the Colts to win this one, but I can’t trust Minshew week in/week out so won’t be backing either team on the spread. Props-wise o4.5 receptions at 5/4 for Josh Downs is good enough for me, and Trey Palmer o27.5 at 10/11 is fine.

Browns +1.5 @ Broncos: 37

Unders? The Browns will be starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson again, he was adequate in a low-scoring shitfest against the Steelers while the Broncos have looked better in recent weeks and somehow find themselves at 5-5 after looking garbage for a lot of the year.

It’s tough to mention anything about the Browns offense no matter who is at QB, we can assume Amari Cooper will be the best player on it, but he had around half the targets David Njoku had last week and Elijah Moore led them in yardage. Hunt and Ford split the load on the ground once more with Ford getting the score last weekend.

The Broncos have solidified their defense and it’s getting them wins, Russell Wilson isn’t near his old self but is keeping it safe and that’s all that’s been needed. Courtland Sutton doesn’t rack up yards but keeps finding the endzone, he’s scored 5 games in a row now and in 8 of their 10 games this year. Jerry Juedy is meh, but myself and Trendy (@TheTrendBettor) on Twitter (X, whatever) love Samaje Perine rec. yards each week, he had 60 last weekend but his line is 17.5 once again.

Fuck knows, it’s probably not going to be high-scoring, the Broncos 4 game win streak has been 2,2, and 1 points (around the stomping of KC) while the Browns don’t blow teams out either. Tribet of “either team to win by 6 or fewer points” at 6/4 (main props on Bet365) seems sensible. I’m going to pivot slightly on Perine and take o2.5 receptions for him at 11/10, slightly better than his rec. yards imo.

Rams -2.5 @ Cardinals: 45

The remaining teams of the NFC West face each other in Arizona, again, might be a fun game to watch.

The Rams cut Darrell Henderson with Kyren Williams returning so expect him to get the full workload on the ground after his good start to the season. They have Cooper Kupp playing but with an ankle injury it’s risky taking anything on him. Puka Nacua could be the man to target here with a slightly lower betting line.

The Cards have been better with Kyler Murray, his mobility has helped them move the ball and the return of James Conner obviously helps as well. Trey McBride has shown his worth at TE and they should have Marquise Brown despite his questionable status.

Rams should win and cover. I’d like it to go over the total? Kyren Williams 1/1 (WilliamHill) I’m happy with even money on his return. Tutu Atwell longest reception o16.5 isn’t a main market but if he catches one it’s usually deep, would have hit in 7/10 games this year including 1 for 30 vs. the Cards earlier.

Bills +3 @ Eagles: 48.5

The evening Sky game sees two teams who would have expected to be in the post-season face-off in Philadelphia, although one of these two might not be making the playoffs after all. Although the Bills smashed the Jets last week while the Eagles beat the #1 seed in the AFC.

It’s been a frustrating year for Bills fans as things don’t seem to be consistent and the disappearance of Gabe Davis seems strange to me from the outside. Stefon Diggs will get his still and Khalil Shakir looks like he might be the WR2 now, albeit third in targets with Dalton Kincaid stepping up in a big spot to show why they took him in the first round this year. The run game has got better in recent weeks with Quinten Morris looking like a good blocking tight end to help James Cook rack up some yardage.

The Eagles have been very good and I don’t see that stopping here, they’re stacked on both sides of the ball and even when their lead receiver has 8 yards in a game they have shown they can still win. D’Andre Swift had a better game on the ground than he has in recent weeks and Devonta Smith helped out with AJ Brown doing very little last weekend. The Eagles being unstoppable on 1-yard gains is a massive gain for their offense and Hurts could be close to leading the league in rushing TDs come the end of the season.

In my eyes the Eagles are the far better team in this one so I’ll take them to cover 3 points at home. I like AJ Brown to bounce back but I hate taking over 80s. Khalil Shakir o32.5 receiving yards.

Chiefs -9 @ Raiders: 43.5

The Chiefs are now a defense-based team, I thought it a month or so ago and it looks more and more like that’s the case since that time, the lack of talent at pass-catcher is really hurting them as there’s only so much the best player ever can do at QB with no-one other than Kelce catching the ball. The Raiders have been more solid on defense since removing Josh McDaniels.

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce probably can do it all by themselves against worse teams but it won’t help them against good teams, this is not a good team so maybe they’ll eek out a win for them. Kad Toney and Mecole Hardman are both out, with Hardman on IR, so one of the other average WRs will have to try and actually catch the ball this week. Justin Watson seems to somehow be the WR1 for them now, which is hideous. I don’t mind the MVS line though…

The Raiders have been targeting Davante Adams a lot since moving to Aiden O’Connell, and Josh Jacobs is running well on the ground. Rookie TE Michael Mayer and Jakobi Meyers have been fine as well and even Hunter Renfrow has appeared from hibernation in recent weeks.

Chiefs will win, they OWN this division but I can’t take them covering 9 points and I’d definitely be taking u43.5 as opposed to the over. MVS o15.5 rec. yards – should be 1 catch for him, if he can make that one catch…

Ravens -3 @ Chargers: 48

A cracking game on paper, closes out the evening as the Ravens look to take a step towards the 1 seed in the AFC by beating the constantly over-rated Chargers in LA.

Lamar Jackson is having a good season now he has players to get the ball to, but will have to do it without Mark Andrews for probably the rest of the year, that means Isaiah Likely will be the main man at TE, a job he’s done well when required. Odell Beckham has got better as the season has gone on, Zay Flowers has been good all year and Rashod Bateman has been adequate as well. The run game has always been good and it’s nicely balanced now with Gus Edwards getting the goal-line work, Justice Hill doing his bit and the speed of Keaton Mitchell looking like a great addition to the mix. They are backed up by one of the best defenses in the league as well.

The Chargers…they can’t stop Chargering. As always they look great on paper but someone always fucks it up. They do welcome back Gerald Everett and Josh Palmer so at least get a little help in the pass-catching department as Quentin Johnston looks like a bust at WR1 so far this year. Austin Ekeler hasn’t looked great on the ground and they have been terrible at getting drives completed. Keenan Allen has been a stud despite playing through injuries and Justin Herbert has been very good even with his team-mates constantly hurting them.

It wouldn’t be shocking if the Chargers win, it’s the type of thing they do, but the Ravens should be winning and covering this one. I wasn’t going to take props here but I’ve got to have 11/10 on Gus Edwards bashing one in 11/10 (PaddyPower)