After gifting us a full slate with all 32 teams playing last weekend the league needed to catch up so this week sees 6 teams on bye and it’s caused chaos for my fantasy football teams, it turns out relying on Gus the Bus and James Cook isn’t ideal in a redraft league… So we’re down to 13 games, the Cowboys have already extended their home winning run at AT&T stadium with a fun TNF win over the Seahawks and the Bengals and Jags close out the night with Jake Brownings team 8.5 point underdogs, I probably won’t stay up for that one.
A quick apology before I start here, our dog is a dick, who apparently loves the snow so we had a very ruff (get it) night of sleep with him barking or whining every few minutes to go out, all of this to say that the previews this week won’t be up to the usual standard as I’m starting them very late!
DraftKings contest is on, of course, I was doing well last week until Jalen Hurts remembered how to play football in the second half of the Bills game – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/155193401
Broncos +3 @ Texans: 47.5
The early sky game wouldn’t have been anywhere near included at the start of the season but 5 wins in a row for the Broncos and the de facto OROY winner at QB for the Texans makes this a potentially very fun game to watch.
Russell Wilson has been keeping it safe at QB for most of the year and it’s been working for them as their defense has stepped up, but he opened things up a little against the Browns with his legs and some deep shots so he’ll be confident of doing similar against a weaker defense. Courtland Sutton is his go-to in the end-zone with 8 TDs this season, all one per game, Jerry Jeudy helps move the ball and Adam Trautmann made a nice catch at the side of the endzone last weekend, he chips in here and there but isn’t reliable. The running game has been good all year led by Javonte Williams (although at 3.9 per carry) and aided by Samaje Perine who took more on the ground last week as Williams was out for some of the game injured, but has been doing most of his work as a pass-catching back (16.5 today).
The Texans have been very fun, CJ Stroud is on target for about 5,000 yards with the likes of Noah Brown, Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell putting up 100 yards on a weekly basis. He’s protected well and they get open and he has said despite a few recent INTs he will keep taking those shots downfield. TE Dalton Schultz misses out today so a look at Jordan Brevin might not be stupid for a TD. Dell is officially questionable but should play, Brown is more 50/50 by the look of it. The run game has looked good with Devin Singletary in there but Dameon Pierce came back last week and may split touches a little more with more health behind him.
I’m thinking the Broncos win here, and I would like it to be over on the total – 4/1 a best price for Jordan rules him out for me, unfortunately. I have been on Bobby Trees rec yards the last few weeks but they may well have all 3 of their more productive WRs playing so I’ll drop off that a little. Perine rec yards has been another regular bet and one I’ll go on again though – Samaje Perine o16.5 rec. yards – 20/23
Cardinals +6.5 @ Steelers: 41
The Cards couldn’t stop the Rams running all over them last week while the new-look Steelers offense immediately put up over 400 yards against a horrible Bengals defense in a narrow win.
The Cards are who they are, they don’t have many weapons but Murray will move the ball well enough still. Marquise Brown and Trey McBride will move the ball, McBride now the only TE there after Zach Ertz was released this week. James Conner is fine on the ground and gets to face his former team, so there’s a revenge spot there.
Najee Harris had probably the best game of his career last week as he had a lot more of the load than Jaylen Warren, I’m not going to guess who gets the ball this week in that duo, Warren has a higher line at 58.5 over 56.5 for Najee Harris though. Diontae Johnson still got most of the targets with Pickens having a few deep shots, and Pat Friermuth blew up, he’s probably the guy I target this week.
The Steelers still couldn’t put up points despite dominating the yardage, something about having a bang average QB maybe? So I’d lean Cardinals covering a decent size spread and under on the total. Pat Friermuth o34.5 rec yards – 20/23
Falcons -2 @ Jets: 33.5
Can the Falcons score 5 points? If so they’ll probably cover the spread. The Jets offense is hideous and not getting better, their defense remains strong.
Falcons have needed to focus on Bijan Robinson all year and might have got to that last week, will it carry on? I don’t trust Arthur Smith at all. Drake London always looks good but with Ridder at QB all things seem tough for them, could be a defensive scores here.
There isn’t a single thing to trust on the Jets offense, no matter the QB is will be terrible.
Logically the Falcons should win and cover, but these are two of the teams I trust the least in the league, I’ll have a poke at Desmond Ridder TD at 6/1 on Paddypower though – against a strong defense he may well just keep the ball and run it himself rather than risk yet another INT in the Redzone and that’s a decent price.
Lions -4.5 @ Saints: 47
The Lions get extended rest after being killed by the Packers last week, the Saints could be without all their WRs.
The Lions defense has been poor recently and remained that way on Thanksgiving and the OL couldn’t protect Goff who has had a handful of poor games in a row now. They are pretty much fully fit though so should bounce back against a Saints defense which has dropped off significantly. Gibbs and Montgomery are fantastic to watch. Ra and LaPorta are the main guys in the passing game with a bit of Jameson Williams mixed in.
The Saints are without Michael Thomas (wanker) and Rashid Shaheed with concussion, Chris Olave looks like he’ll make it but it’s not confirmed yet. Juwan Johnson got a lot of targets last week and would have had more had it not been for injury. The outsiders in the WR group aren’t well priced.
Lions should win and cover but haven’t been in good form recently, the Saints move the ball well enough but can’t do anything in the redzone. A confusing game! I guess lean under the total. Juwan Johnson o2.5 receptions – 4/6.
Colts -1 @ Titans: 42
The Colts big news is the loss of Jonathan Taylor for a few weeks, while the Titans had one good game with their rookie QB and have done little since then.
Zack Moss gets the start for the Colts then, he had 195 combined yards and 2 TDs against the Titans earlier in the year, Michael Pittman is looking like a stud and Josh Downs gets 5 receptions per game. Do I go again on o4.5 receptions for the rookie? Probably.
The Titans aren’t a team I look at, Henry had his best game for two months last week and still only hit 76 yards, Levis had 185 yards through the air against the worst team in the league. Deandre Hopkins is obviously the main man in the passing game but it’s not been a good one.
Titans defense usually keeps them in the game but Minshew and the Colts did well against them earlier in the year, I like the Colts to cover and under on the total. Downs is 10/13 for o4.5 receptions, it will probably happen, but my bet here will be Zack Moss TD at 10/11 (Bet365)
Chargers -5 @ Patriots: 39.5
Chargers gonna Charger? Surely not against this hideous steaming pile of giraffe dung? Liam and I both had the Chargers as out best bet on the Full10Yards betting pod this week. We may be very stupid.
The Chargers are slowly getting back to health on offense, Allen is a stud and the guy the Pats will look to take away but Gerald Everett and Josh Palmer being back will help Justin Herbert have a few more people to aim at. Austin Ekeler has struggled after injury this year but will get most of the ball on the ground.
Bailey Zappe and some Malik Cunningham? Fuck that. Stevenson and Zeke ran the ball well last week at least, but the passing game is hideous.
So yeah, the Chargers should win and cover but they aren’t trustworthy.
Dolphins -9 @ Commanders: 49.5
The Dolphins were killing shit teams at the start of the year but haven’t been as explosive in recent weeks, the Commanders move the ball well but tend to struggle with scoring.
It looks like De’von Achane is going to go again, so it’s him and Mostert in the run game, the passing game is mostly Tyreek Hill who is on target for over 2000 yards. Waddle does a bit but there’s not that much else in the passing game there. Last week was 9 for Hill, 8 for Waddle, 1 for Durham Smythe and RB Jeff Wilson had 3 receptions. That was it, no-one else caught a pass.
The Commanders move the ball well, usually when trailing, Sam Howell leads the league in passing yards, but also in sacks and QB hits, it’s always a tough game for him, but he’s fun. Curtis Samuel was the guy last week, and should get a lot in the short game again with Jalen Ramsey probably taking Terry McLaurin a lot. Logan Thomas usually gets a fair bit in the passing game as well. Brian Robinson has run well for them this year in general.
Dolphins should win but I’m leaning to the Commies covering now they’re back home and over on the total. I LOVE 5/7 on Curtis Samuel o3.5 receptions.
Panthers +3.5 @ Buccs: 36.5
Will the Panthers get a boost after sacking Frank Reich in the week? I think so, will it be enough to help this terrible team cover 3.5 points? Probably not. The Buccs have a game plan and it should be enough here.
Not a lot of positives on the Panthers side of the ball. Chuba Hubbard gets most of the ball on the ground, Sanders does a bit. Adam Thielen had been reliable at WR at least but had 1 catch for 2 yards last week, a new head coach could change things but I don’t know where they’d make changes.
Rachaad White running the ball and dump-offs seem to be the way the Buccs move the ball for the most part, although Mike Evans is showing he can do it with any QB back there as he’s on target for 1,000 yards once again this season and scored a couple last weekend. Chris Godwin hasn’t been reliable so Cade Otton and Trey Palmer have had a bit more than I’d have expected.
Bucs should win, but the new coach bounce is a thing and I won’t go against that. Rachaad White o3.5 receptions – 10/13
49ers -3 @ Eagles: 47.5
The game of the season so far? For many the two best teams in the league with the 49ers comfortably above the Eagles now they’re back at full health and it’s a mix of revenge and rest differential which has the road team as comfortable favourites here.
The 49ers had an easy game 10 days ago against the Seahawks and have looked dominant since Trent Williams returned to the OL, that along with the addition of Chase Young on the DL has been a big factor in their recent run of wins.
Brock Purdy is performing better than anyone in the league in a number of stats, he gets the ball on time to Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and with the best RB in the game helping out they move the ball with ease against most teams. George Kittle is always available and will win contested catches for the most part as well. McCaffrey had a couple of scores on the ground last weekend.
The Eagles had an overtime win on Sunday evening last week and started incredibly slowly before a banged-up Jalen Hurts took over the game. AJ Brown has just 43 yards in 2 games now and without Dallas Goedert in the lineup, Devonta Smith has stepped up. The run games hasn’t been anywhere near as good and with injuries to the offensive line they could give up pressures here as well. D’Andre Swift still gets the bulk of the carries on the ground, and in fairness did average 5.7 per carry last week.
This does all look fairly one-sided to the 49ers but I won’t go against the Eagles at home. If anything I’d lean to the Eagles covering despite the fact I know it’s not the sensible way to go! It should be a great game regardless and I’m hoping the Eagles aren’t overwhelmed with so much against them and the Cowboys on deck next weekend.
Browns +4 @ Rams: 40.5
Joe, motherfucking Flacco, amazing times. The Browns have their 4th starting QB of the season against a Rams team who leant heavily on a strong run game last week.
Flacco at QB makes the whole passing game confusing, and it was doing OK last week with DRT at QB, although the pass-catchers had a horrible game with a number of drops against the Broncos. Kareem Hunt had a knee injury in that game so I think Jerome Ford will get more carries in this one as a result of that. Elijah Moore has prior with Flacco from their time at the Jets, he had his best games in NY with Flacco at QB, so may be the man to benefit from this desperate move.
The Rams got Kyren Williams back and he had nearly 200 yards and 2 TDs against the Cardinals, he’s killed them both times he’s faced them this year but this is a far better defense. Cooper Kupp still can’t get fully healthy and Puka Nacua has dropped off a bit after a bit start to the year. Tutu Atwell was my target last weekend, Tyler Higbee scored a couple of TDs.
I do like the Rams to win and cover but it’s a good defense they’re up against and I don’t like going against it in the betting. Kyren Williams TD – 1/1 (UniBet) and I’ll have o24.5 receiving yards for Kyren as well. I’m fine with anywhere near evens for Kyren to score a TD here.
Chiefs -6 @ Packers: 42.5
A mildly interesting end to the evening sees the Chiefs under a TD favourite against the a Packers team who dominated the Lions on Thanksgiving.
The Chiefs have been defense first for the most part this season but getting Rashee Rice more involved seemed to have them move the ball last weekend against the Raiders. Travis Kelce doesn’t need mentioning but other than them two there’s no-one to trust in the passing game. Isaih Pacheco has been running very well though and will get the most carries with Jerrick McKinnon out this week.
Jordan Love looked good against the Lions, they moved the ball well with Christian Watson having his best game of the year. Romeo Doubs and rookie Jayden Reed both looked good as well as the offense settles into things with Love at QB. AJ Dillon gets going when things get cold so he could have a big game here after a plodding season.
I don’t like going against the Chiefs as they have the best QB in the game, so I’ll lean to them covering still, the defense should slow the Packers and the Chiefs can put up 30 in any given game without too much stress.
Enjoy the games tonight folks!
TouchdownTips 
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