The season is getting towards crunch time and with the Week 14 Sunday schedule on the horizon there are no dead rubbers on the slate with every game containing at least one team who can make the post-season at the moment, a win is huge, a loss could end their seasons, it should be a hell of a night of entertainment!
Speaking of Hell of a night… I gained a ton of followers after sharing a winning bet on Twitter/X last week, IT IS VERY UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN AGAIN! Getting 6 TD scorers across 3 games is incredibly lucky, and while I did have 2/3 games land a week or two ago this is the first full house I’ve ever had. It was great, it’s helped me pay for some Christmas presents but please don’t follow me expecting it to happen again! (Saying that, I will of course be posting one pre-game this week as I’m well aware this is what’s expected of me now…)
More importantly though, for me, read through my previews and make up your own mind on some bets. I had a poor week on props last week on my post, but got most of the spreads correct, so it was an up and down night for me on the whole. Personally: great, on here: not so good.
As always I’ve got my Draftkings contest running – $5 entry, top 3 get paid –https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/155558555
A quick note before I get into the games, there seems to be a lot of weather around which could affect games on the East coast of the US, so totals are low, which means TDs are likely to be harder to come by and theoretically more running. Generally it’s wind rather than rain which affects games and Cleveland seems to one more be the prime site for that.
Rams +7.5 @ Ravens: 39.5
The first Sky game looks interesting on paper, but the spread and the Rams results against the NFC this season seems to suggest it might be a blow-out to the home side coming off their bye week.
The Rams ran in a needless late TD to make their win last week look more impressive but they put up a ton of yards on a Browns defense which we all rate highly, so the return of Kyren Williams to the line-up can’t be underplayed. Matthew Stafford is fantastic in controlled environments but his record outside in horrible elements isn’t that great, the first negative to the Rams. Then there’s the health of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, AND Tyler Higbee, his three main targets all have knocks of one kind or another, so maybe more for Tutu Atwell? Usually the deep threat but Stafford does like him. Kyren Williams has been a sensation though with another TD last week and over 100 combined yards, his pass-catching talents could be needed more in a game I expect the Rams to be trailing.
The Ravens tend to do well against teams who don’t see them often as Lamar Jackson leads a fairly unique attack. They are one of the best in the league at running the ball with Lamar, Justice Hill, speedster Keaton Mitchell and the Gus Bus smashing in at goal-line situations, it’s varied and it all works well together. The passing game has been fine this year but takes a hit without Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely has come in but 4 for 40 last game isn’t going to take over a game. They spread the ball around, Zay Flowers being the main man, but Beckham, Bateman and even Agholor have done bits through the year. Once again though they have a top 3 defense in the league and they work off the back of that slowing opposing teams.
It’s a higher spread than I’d usually like but I do think the Ravens cover it, that probably means over on the total, the Ravens ability to run the ball could negate the poor weather more than in other locations. I like Keaton Mitchell to score, his odds aren’t great any more though… 9/5 at PaddyPower the best around. Kyren Williams o17.5 receiving yards my prop bet for this one.
Panthers +6 @ Saints: 38.5
The new coach bounce might not have got the Panthers a win but they covered last week while the Saints put up points after a hideous start saw them 21-0 down in the first quarter.
The Panthers don’t have much to talk about, Chuba Hubbard leads them on the ground over 100 yards and 2 TDs last week, with Miles Sanders 2nd fiddle, the passing game is horrible, they can’t even get the ball to Adam Thielen now. Mingo had 10 targets last week, I guess they try and get him the ball?
It looks like Derek Carr will be playing despite a concussion and shoulder injury last week, the fans hate him, they can’t finish drives with him but he’ll likely be in as starter with Jameis Winston probably getting some play during the game, Taysom Hill looks like he might miss out, which is actually a loss for them. Chris Olave is very good, but with Shaheed probably out again there’s not much behind him in the passing game. Juwan Johnson at TE needs to actually catch a ball this week. Alvin Kamara will get a lot of touches but he’s not been able to get going for the last month despite scoring last week.
Saints should win and cover, not because they’re good but the Panthers are so bad. It’s not one I’d bet on though as I don’t exactly trust them either.
Lions -3 @ Bears: 43
The Bears had their best game of the season when they played the Lions a month ago and the defensive frailties which have popped up on the Detroit side have seen this line move towards the home team through the week. It feels like a trap.
Goff hasn’t been playing well, the Lions defense hasn’t played well but they’re at 9-3 for the first time in millennia, they seems to have figured out how to win even when playing poorly but it won’t be easy in the elements here. Fortunately, they have the best RB duo in the league and an OL which helps that. David Montgomery has 10 rushing TDs (that was big odds as I mentioned in my antepost bet post) and has scored in all but one of the games he’s taken some part in this year, he will probably still get the goal-line work despite the emergence of Jamhyr Gibbs in the backfield who looks more dynamic on a smaller touch-count. The passing game is mainly Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie TE Sam LaPorta who looks like he’ll set records in his first year in the league. They have been getting Jameson Williams more involved and he looks like he’s putting the effort in now.
It’s pretty much all on Justin Fields to move the ball, he’s got a good partnership with DJ Moore in the passing game but the run game has stuttered with Khalil Herbert back and Roschon Johnson returning after their bye week, Johnson seems like his role has been increasing through the season, but I think Fields probably leads them on the ground. Other than Moore in the passing game you’re looking at Cole Kmet and there’s not much more that seems even half-reliable there.
Taking the Lions seems like a trap but I think they win this game, probably under on the total but I’ve got Lions games completely wrong a lot. David Montgomery at 20/21 (Bet365) is more than betable, I was expecting closer to 4/7.
Texans -3.5 @ Jets: 33
Another 30-something total, mainly due to the Jets here, but 15mph winds and definite rain won’t help things. Texans come off another close win while the Jets, are laughable.
The Texans are without Tank Dell for the rest of the year so will need Noah Brown, John Metchie and Robert Woods to step up behind Nico Collins who topped 100 yards again last week. A lot relies on CJ Stroud and the passing game as the run-game hasn’t added a whole lot in recent weeks with David Montgomery and Dameon Pierce. Pierce led the carries last week but averaged 2.7 yards per carry. This is a good Jets defense, sure it might have given up on the year but it can make things tough.
Despite some manufactured “drama” this week Zach Wilson is back in at QB with Tim Boyle on the streets after a couple of horrible games. It doesn’t really matter, they’re all terrible at the position, which kills pretty much everything on offense for the Jets. Garrett Wilson is very good as is Breece Hall but neither have had a chance to show it this year, 1.2 YPC for Hall last week… not good.
God knows. Again, it seems like a trap to take the fave here, I’d lean towards the Jets fighting hard and doing something, most Texans games come down to the wire so getting 3.5, could be a half-point cover for the Jets. 10/1 on John Metchie might be worth a look at double-digits.
Colts +2 @ Bengals: 44
Backup vs. Backup here, and what a difference a game makes for the Bengals, with the new JB at QB for them looking excellent on Monday night. Gardner Minshew eeked out another win in charge of the Colts though and both come in with chances of the playoffs.
The Colts are quietly putting a decent season together without their elite RB and fun QB. Zack Moss has been servicable in relief, Josh Downs has looked great at WR and Michael Pittman is having the contract-year that Tee Higgins wishes he could have as the main target for the Colts. Their defense has stepped up as well leading them to becoming quite a fun team to watch. A lot hinges on Gardner Minshew though, as I tend to say every week, he has 3 turnover games in him, but he does tend to get going as the games go on as well.
Was Jake Browning’s record-breaking performance on Monday a one-off? We’ve seen QBs come in and perform well before falling off a cliff a week later so the jury is out still on him, but I will say that I thought he looked good for a lot of the Steelers game before that win over the Jags, and the play-calling with him was as I’d expect it would have been for Joe Burrow, the coaching staff have faith in him. The pass-blocking was very good, they got Mixon going and he found his guys well in the passing game, mostly Ja’Marr Chase who showed once again he’ll step up if you aim at him. Higgins and Boyd were relatively quiet but Tanner Hudson had a big game again, 5 games in a row now with 4+ receptions for him.
I have no idea here. The Bengals defense has given up a TON of yards this year so over on player props for the Colts looks sensible, but the Bengals looked great on offense against a better Jags team on Monday night. Tanner Hudson o2.5 receptions – 4/5, Ja’Marr Chase o67.5 rec yards – I can’t have Chase getting fewer yards than Michael Pittman. Alec Pierce longest reception – o16.5 – They have talked about him getting more deep shots and it worked last weekend for them.
Jaguars +3 @ Browns: 33
More double-backup action as we’re probably getting CJ Beathard against Joe Flacco, the weather seems like it will be most extreme in this game although the likeliness of rain seems to have dropped from earlier in the week.
Trevor Lawrence is officially a game-time decision with a high-ankle sprain, but it would be quite shocking to me if he started this game, so we’re probably getting Beathard at QB. He looked adequate after fumbling his first touch of the game against the Bengals, but it probably means the offense will be restricted, he does have an arm on him though so deep shots may be more frequent. They will likely rely on Travis Etienne and maybe D’Ernest Johnson in the run game. Calvin Ridley has been up and down, while Zay Jones and Evan Engram probably get more with Christian Kirk out for at least a month.
Joe Flacco looked fine for the Browns, he’s still got an arm on him so he’ll aim downfield but the pass-catching group for Cleveland has really let them down this year as a whole so I don’t want to lean towards any of them and with the Lawrence stuff, there’s no props on the board anyway. Jerome Ford looks like he’s back at RB1 with Kareem Hunt behind him now but that area hasn’t been great for them this year either. The Browns defense is FAR superior at home giving up nearly 20 points fewer than when they have to travel but the health of Myles Garrett is a worry for them there.
The under was hit early in the week bringing this down from 35, with the weather seemingly like it’s eased I’d be leaning to the Browns and the over.
Buccaneers +2 @ Falcons: 41
The NFC South is on the line? Likely to be won again by a team with a losing record, but these two are 5-7 and 6-6 respectively and a win for the Falcons here would give them the sweep and put them 2 ahead of their rivals.
The Buccs have been fine. That’s about it, Baker Mayfield, he’s been fine, he knows he’s got Mike Evans there and that he’s great, he knows he can dump it off to Rachaad White, but other than that there’s not that much in them. Chris Godwin has disappeared, Cade Otton at TE has done a little, but on offense they plod along.
The Falcons are on of the more annoying teams in the league to watch, Arthur Smith can’t get out of his own way, Desmond Ridder is impossible to trust, but has weapons around him in Bijan Robinson and Drake London. They have been good defensively recently with Jessie Bates having consecutive games with an INT.
Not much to say about these teams, but I think I’ll take the Buccs to win outright, and therefore cover. Mike Evans – 7/5 (Bet365) a nice price, I’m not sure why he and Courtland Sutton are always so far above evens.
Vikings -3 @ Raiders: 40.5
Both teams come off their bye after losses the week before, the Vikings need to keep winning to push for the NFC playoffs while the Raiders are theoretically still alive having stepped up since changing their head coach.
The Vikings are keeping Josh Dobbs at QB, something I didn’t realise was in question, but the bye week probably came at a good time for him after being thrown into the team and earning a couple of wins before losing to the Cardinals. He’s played well with his rushing helping the team and generally been throwing the ball well. The headline for the Vikings this week though, should be JUSTIN JEFFERSON returning for them after his hamstring injury, it gives Dobbs the best WR in the league to target so it will be interesting to see how that helps with Addison and TJ Hockenson doing well all year. The run game isn’t great and is a split between Mattison and Ty Chandler now.
The Raiders have done well to get to 5 wins this year, it’s mainly due to Josh Jacobs running well on his one-year deal. He’ll get 20+ touches in the game and then it’s whether the rest of the team can step up. Davante Adams has had more of the ball since Aiden O’Connell came in at QB and Jakobi Meyers has been scoring well for them this year as well. It’s not a great bunch but they’ve managed to grind out results.
Once again I’m looking at a trap game here, I think the Vikings should be pick’em at worst, so getting points means I have to take them, but there’s obviously something I’m missing!
Seahawks +13.5 @ 49ers: 46.5
This line has gone up through the week, I’m sure it opened around 10, but there’s good reason for it, the Seahawks have a terrible recent record against their divisional rival, losing 4 in a row, in convincing fashion.
The Seahawks have been plugging on this year but aren’t going anywhere near the post-season, they’re an average team and that’s where they are, which is a shame for players like DK Metcalf who are legit stars in the league. It looks like Kenneth Walker could return at RB to help alongside Zach Charbonnet who went off with an injury late last week, but they could have both of them playing here. Metcalf, Lockett and JSN are a good trio though but Geno Smith is showing he’s as average as we expected before his big year last year.
The 49ers are the best team in the league when they’re fully healthy and that’s about where they are at the moment after dicking on the Eagles last week. They’ve easily beaten the Eagles and Cowboys who are probably the two teams closest to them in the NFC, very impressive. I’m starting to have to believe in Brock Purdy’s abilities, he’s now down at fave alongside Patrick Mahomes and if the Niners keep going as they are then they may well have the #1 seed in the NFC, so why not. The return of Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel has taken them back to being unstoppable and Deebo along with Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey form one of the best offenses in the league.
It’s hard not to gush over the Niners, but I still won’t be taking them to cover two TDs when they don’t really need to. CmC at 1/3 is insane.
Bills +1 @ Chiefs: 48.5
Two teams who have probably under-performed so far this year from the lofty expectations of the pre-season. The Bills need a win to have a chance of sneaking the AFC East, and probably to keep in the playoff chase while the Chiefs are going to win their division but would love that #1 seed again as Mahomes doesn’t do road trips in the playoffs.
The Bills come off their bye week after a rough loss to the Eagles in a game they should have won but they just don’t seem to have it this year, Josh Allen always steps up in big games on the ground, Stefon Diggs is very good but the rest of the roster just isn’t doing enough to help them win. Gabe Davis is hit or miss, Khalil Shakir is fine as the 3rd WR, Dalton Kincaid has been a stud since getting the full time job at TE, but the defense is poor and the run game is manageable rather than helpful. James Cook has done all right but hasn’t lifted the team.
The Chiefs have struggled on offense all season but have been solid defensively until last recently, although a horrible missed PI call prevented them the chance of tying up against the Packers. Mahomes is still great of course, but he can’t rely on Travis Kelce as he could before as age (and maybe distractions) affect him, and he definitely can’t rely on any of his WRs as they’ve been letting him down all year. They do seem to be giving more to Rashee Rice finally which seems a sensible move but the likes of Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and MVS just can’t be trusted to catch a ball let alone do anything else. They are without their best RB this week, and maybe more, as Isiah Pacheco misses out so a mix of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerrick McKinnon will be getting the snaps there.
The Bills spread has dropped through the week and coming off their bye, I do think they might be able to beat a true contender for seemingly the first time ever, I don’t really trust either team at the moment, but I think I’m down on the Chiefs more. The total would usually start with a 5, but I’m still leaning under. Josh Allen o33.5 rush yards seems like a banker, he steps it up when playing against big teams.
Broncos +2.5 @ Chargers: 44
Variance hit Russell Wilson and the Broncos as 3 turnovers prevented them winning last week against the Texans while the Chargers scored 6 points. They still won, but my god, Justin Herbert. SIX POINTS.
The Broncos had a similar game to their wins, they moved the ball fine, but things went wrong for them last week, Courtland Sutton catching 2 of 7 targets is a microcosm of how that game went for them. They run the ball fairly well with Williams and Perine, they have some talented pass-catchers with Sutton and Juedy and their defense has stepped up over the last month or so to keep things close. I will admit I’m going to keep backing Courtland Sutton if they keep putting him up around 2/1 (15/8 at SkyBet) he only scores 1 a game but he does that in 70% of his games, I can’t not bet that.
The Chargers fucking suck and I love it. I don’t know why but I have something against them, I think it’s the fact that Herbert is beyond questioning, although, in fairness it looks like he’s actually played pretty well with limited weapons. I say limited. It’s Keenan Allen and nothing else. The run game stinks, Ekeler wanted more money, didn’t get it and you can see why he didn’t as they have had to come out this week to say they’ll be giving Josh Kelley more of the ball on the ground. The passing game is virtually Keenan Allen and nothing else, Quentin Johnston was meant to be good but can’t catch the ball, the TE’s are in and out with injury, it’s just been a bit of a shambles for them this year.
I think I have to lean to the Broncos, it will more than likely be a one score game so give me the points. Courtland Sutton anytime – 15/8 (SkyBet and WilliamHill)
Eagles +3.5 @ Cowboys: 51.5
The hellish run of games the Eagles have had over the last month come to an end with a potential NFC East decider in Dallas this weekend. The Eagles won the first game between the two and a win for them here essentially ties up the conference, but a win for the Cowboys levels the series and ties them up at 10 wins atop the division.
The Eagles have been rough this last month but for the most part have ground out wins, that came to an abrupt end last weekend and showed where they are at the moment, they just haven’t got enough on either side of the ball due to losing a few key players to health. They should welcome back Dallas Goedert which will be huge for them but they need to get the defense sorted as it’s been letting them down recently. AJ Brown had a huge month or two but has dropped off against better teams, Devonta Smith does tend to get the yardage when AJB doesn’t but they’re getting no support from others or the run game which has died a death over the last month. D’Andre Swift isn’t doing it and Jalen Hurts not being healthy is stopping him taking off as he used to. The “brotherly shove” is still unstoppable though if they get within 2 yards of the goal-line.
The Cowboys have been imperious at home winning every game this year and doing it by 20+ points in each, but they have played some terrible teams. Dak Prescott is playing the best football of his career and CeeDee Lamb is making a bid for best WR in the game with his play recently. They seem to have given up on Gallup with Brandin Cooks stepping up as the 2 and Jalen Tolbert and Turpin seem to get more targets that Gallup these days. They’ve found a decent TE in Jake Ferguson who has shown he’s reliable and decent in the redzone and Tony Pollard actually scored a TD last week, good for him. They’ve been very good on defense with Micah Parsons leading the charge and Darron Bland leading the league in Pick 6’s this season.
Can the Cowboys beat a very good team? Can the Eagles secure the division? It’s going to be an interesting game. I have to lean to the Eagles getting over a field goal but there’s no confidence in it, and probably go over on the total. Hopefully a competitive game at least to close out the night.
So there you have it, a few BOLDED choices which is what I judge myself on each week, some leans towards some other stuff, but the thing I’d imagine quite a few people have come for, WHICH PROBABLY WON’T WIN AGAIN, knowing variance being such a fickle mistress I wouldn’t be shocked if none hit this week, but this is my BPTS Trixie for the week.
I tend to try and go for a player from each team but I won’t like taking 3/1 or below, I think the Ravens will go very run heavy, Pierce and Chase both scored big TDs last week and the Bengals defense has been terrible at giving up big plays so Pierce should get a few shots this week, while Dobbs has been rushing them in and Hockenson a beast this season, I thought the odds were tasty on that one.
Good luck if you’re following, hopefully a profitable night all round.
TouchdownTips 
Leave a comment