Sunday arrives and Week 15 is already in full swing after Thursday night and some Saturday games. The Raiders made it 63 points in two games, after being shut out last Sunday destroyed the Chargers on Thursday night, a result which finally brought about the end of Brandon Staley in LA, a move which can only be good for one of the worst run franchises in the league. Saturday had a triple header of games with the Bengals winning in Overtime against the Vikings to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Steelers falling apart in Indy who keep their hopes alive and the Lions getting back on track with Jared Goff throwing for 5 TDs in their win over the Broncos.
I put out a little thread on X, Twitter, that thing, about the Bengals game highlighting Chase Brown who was 5/1 to have 25+ Receiving yards, he had 28 to make it a tasty start to the weekend! Well done if you followed along on that one. As predicted though the BPTS trixies haven’t even hit one over the last fortnight after my huge win, that’s more usual than the wins but I’ll keep posting them out on the off chance.
30 of the teams in the league are still in contention for the playoffs, so there’s a lot on the line as we near Christmas.
DraftKings league is here, as always – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/155958355 – I accidentally triple entered a contest last night, fortunately the lineup placed, so made a little bit of money on the Saturday slate.
A word of note, obviously next weekend if Christmas, we’ve got games on Saturday, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, previews may be staggered!
Buccaneers +3.5 @ Packers: 42.5
The early Sky game comes from the NFC as the 6-7 division-leading Buccs take on 6-7 Packers who are chasing a playoff spot with the Lions probably wrapping up the North.
Typical of the NFC South, the Buccs have been up and down all year which isn’t that surprising with Baker Mayfield at QB, he’s been fine and usually finds Mike Evans 7 or 8 times a game for a TD and 100 yards, but they shit the bed last week so I’d expect a bounce back from that combination. Chris Godwin hasn’t got going this year, but Cade Otton is making himself available at TE for them. They move a lot through Rachaad White on the ground and with dump offs, he hit 100 rushing yards last week and scored a receiving TD. Defensively they’ve been solid enough.
The Packers have been up and down as well, started slowly, got into stride but now they’re hit with injuries they’ve struggled to retain their form. Aaron Jones will be hoping to play with AJ Dillon questionable with a thumb fracture, I would think Jones is more likely to come through but nothing is confirmed yet. Christian Watson is unlikely to play, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are both questionable coming into this one as well, so I guess it’s Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft? It’s not good for them. Patrick Taylor and Kenyan Drake could come in at RB if neither the main guys can go. They’ve got injuries on defense too, it’s a rough time for Green Bay.
Due to the injuries I’ve got to lean to the Bucs getting points on the road, but they’re a warm weather team going to the tundra which is a bad spot, so it’s no bet on the spread and a lean to the under on the total. Mike Evans – 8/5 (William Hill) – Poor game last week, they’ll focus on him this week.
Falcons -3 @ Panthers: 33
The Falcons are tied at the top of the NFC South at 6-7 while the Panthers are the worst team in the league, so just 3 points for the Falcons seems insulting. The weather is meant to be terrible in Carolina hence the low total.
Bad weather should help a team who run the ball well though which is the Falcons, although the play-calling has been frustrating all year to say the least. Bijan Robinson has shown flashes when allowed and Tyler Allgeier is good enough, they also mix in Cordarelle Patterson as well. Drake London is a boss but it’s tough when Desmond Ridder is throwing the ball to him. Ridder has been volatile but can run in for scores. The Falcons defense has actually been quite good, Jessie Bates having a cracking season at safety.
There’s not much to talk about on the Panthers side, Chuba Hubbard has run fairly well but the passing game is hideous, they can’t even find Adam Thielen 10 times a game like they did earlier in the season.
Surely the Falcons cover three points here? I don’t trust Arthur Smith in the slightest so I’d lean to Bijan over 64.5 rushing yards. I was hoping C Patt would be double-digits but 15/2 isn’t high enough for a random long shot from me.
Bears +3 @ Browns: 37.5
The Bears are probably finishing bottom of the NFC North but have hit some form in recent weeks as Fields looks to prove he’s the future there while the Browns are putting up points with Joe Flacco at QB. What a time to be alive.
Justin Fields and DJ Moore provide most of the offense for the Bears with Fields rushing for 50+ yards most weeks and finding DJ Moore down the field with most of his completed passes, I still struggle to trust Moore on a week-to-week basis, but he’s been showing his worth since being traded over from the Panthers. The run game was apparently Dont’a Foreman over Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson last week, so that’s a mess for betting purposes while Cole Kmet is the other player to note in the passing game.
The Browns have had a weird year as Joe Flacco providing the best QB play they’ve had all year highlights. He’s been hitting the main guys further downfield than Watson or any of the others have and it’s been moving the ball for them. David Njoku had a good game last week so he’ll probably be riddled with drops this week, Amari Cooper had 14 targets, Elijah Moore is OK now Flacco is there and David Bell had a few targets last week as well. They may be without Kareem Hunt on the ground, so will lean on Jerome Ford even more. The offense has improved but the defense has fallen apart a bit in recent weeks.
The Browns should win and cover this one but the Bears are a team I can never get right, it all depends on Fields and how he plays on the day. I’d go over on the total though. Over 43.5 rushing yards for Jerome Ford looks a decent line.
Texans +3 @ Titans: 37
The Texans had a nightmare week losing to the Jets and losing their offense while the Titans come off an impressive win over the Dolphins, becoming the first team to win after trailing by 14 with 2:50 left on the clock.
The Texans are probably going to have Case Keenum at QB over Davis Mills, they are without most of their pass-catchers with Nico Collins and Noah Brown both questionable. They should have Dalton Schultz back at TE at least. Devin Singletary retains the main role at running back but hasn’t done much with it although Pierce will probably get the goal-line stuff.
The Titans are variable as well, Will Levis occasionally pops, Derrick Henry can still run for 2 TDs and 100 yards if the mood takes him, Deandre Hopkins has had a decent enough year as the main man in the passing game. It’s a shallow offense but they’re well coached and they can put up points.
Due to the injuries to the Texans I’ll be taking the Titans to cover but this could be a horrible game to watch. I’m fine with 10/11 for Derrick Henry scoring (Bet365)
Chiefs -8 @ Patriots: 37
The Chiefs lost again last week due to stupidity from Kad Toney as the WRs there continue to let the team down while the Patriots are awful.
Weirdly there’s not much to say about the Chiefs on offense, Pacheco is missing again so looks at Jerrick McKinnon props ahead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire who just can’t do it in the league. Rashee Rice is the only half-reliable WR for them and Travis Kelce looks like he might finally be feeling his age although the play which should have won the game for them last week was incredible. They are now a defense-led team.
The Patriots are definitely defense-led as well but that’s more to do with the utter ineptitude at QB for them. Rhamondre Stevenson is probably out again so 20+ carries for Zeke Elliott after he scored last week. Hunter Henry nothced up a double against the Pats and Juju had his one good game of the season in a revenge spot against his former team.
Chiefs should win, they should cover but there’s no way in hell I’d bet on that. It’s a low total but I don’t want either side there either. I want to take one of the Chiefs RBs to go over their receiving yards, McKinnon is 16.5, Clyde is 12.5 – I’ll probably end up on McKinnon over.
Giants +5 @ Saints: 39.5
Tommy DeVito is making the Giants kinda fun while Derek Carr is sapping the life from the Saints.
Tommy might not ever be a starter but he’s locking up a career backup spot in the league now, and has been moving the ball well enough for the Giants, if passes aren’t there he’s taking off on the ground, finishing with 71 yards last week. He’s revitalised Saquon Barkley though and that’s the main thing the Giants need to do, he finished with 2 TDs last week to make it 4 in 3 games. The passing game does enough with Wan’Dale Robinson looking the best he has since his knee injury ruined last season.
The Saints are frustrating to say the least, they just can’t go out of their own way. Carr moves the ball well enough until the Red Zone where it all falls apart although they did essentially have a bye week by facing the Panthers last week. They’ve got a lot of injuries but have Alvin Kamara going well enough. Will they get Jimmy Graham more involved? Probably. Chris Olave should play but has been listed on the injury report for a few weeks now, he’s officially a game-time decision but it looks like Shaheed and Taysom Hill should be back.
I’m actually leaning to the Giants here, they’re spunky. Things are horrible in New Orleans though. Tommy Devito o31.5 rush yards? Wan’dale o31.5 rec yards? I just can’t trust the Giants enough to take either. Alt lines for Saquon longest reception look tempting though, 13/1 for him to have a 30 yard dump off? Probably worth a nibble.
Jets +8 @ Dolphins
The Jets defense beat up the Texans for their win last week while the Dolphins threw away their game on Monday and maybe the chance of the 1 seed as fixtures start getting tougher for them at the end of the year.
The Jets offense is still putrid although Zach Wilson had his best passer rating of the season last week. Randall Cobb did something for the first time all year and Breece Hall found the endzone as well for Wilson’s two TDs while Garrett Wilson obviously led them in receiving, he’s very good. The Jets defense might have found a second-wind and stopping the Dolphins would be ideal for them.
The Dolphins may be without Tyreek Hill and without him they really don’t have much. The run game is good with Mostert and Achane but the passing game is mostly Tyreek. I think he will play but ankle injuries are tough to get through, especially for speedsters like him. Jaylen Waddle needs to step up as do the average guys behind him. Mostert now has 18 TDs this year yet is still above evens to score. Remarkable stuff.
Will the Dolphins bounce back from their loss? It’s another home game for them against a familiar foe, a lot depends on Tyreek Hill though which I think is why the line is probably more depressed than expected. I think the Titans are better than the Jets and they were 14 point dogs on Monday. So I’ve got to lean to the Dolphins covering. Raheem Mostert – 11/10 (Skybet) – I’ll probably go for him and Achane both to score.
49ers -12 @ Cardinals: 48.5
The 49ers are unanimously the best team in the league with possibly the MVP at QB while the Cardinals are at the other end of the scale although look better with Kyler Murray back there.
What else is there to say about the Niners? They’re great on both sides of the ball, have the best RB in the league and probably the best coach. Brock Purdy runs the offense well and Deebo Samuel returning has been huge for them, he’s scored 5 in 2 games now and opens things up for Brandon Aiyuk who has been high-level this season. George Kittle is always fun to watch. The defense has been very good since Chase Young came in and will get pressure on Kyler.
Murray has made them better on offense since his return and it’s mainly his connection with Trey McBride which has been moving the ball for them. Other than him it’s tough to call the passing game, Rondale Moore has had some deep shots, Marqiuse Brown can do things, but it’s weird. James Conner has been running well since he came back and finished with a couple against his former team when they last played before their bye week.
49ers win and cover seems the sensible play here, they’ve won by at least 14 against the Cardinals the last 4 times they’ve met. Deebo is 11/10 to score at Skybet as well, maybe a nice double there with Mostert.
Commanders +6.5 @ Rams: 50.5
The Commies come off their bye week while the Rams suffered a tough overtime loss in Baltimore last weekend.
The Commanders defense is terrible which makes the offense quite fun as Sam Howell has to throw constantly to keep them in the game and without Brian Robinson at RB the passing game could, somehow, be leaned on even more. Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodrguez probably split carries but it could be Jonathan Williams getting some of the ball as well as they try to get something going. Curtis Samuel has been a frequent target for me this year, his reception line is 3.5 once more. Terry McLaurin hasn’t had a 100 yard game yet which seems absurd while Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas have had games at times as well.
The Rams have looked very good in recent weeks, Matthew Stafford has been playing at high level with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp a fantastic duo for him to threw to. They may have Tyler Higbee back at TE but rookie Davis Allen stepped up in his place last week, keep an eye on that position. Kyren Williams is an absolute beast, although he didn’t score last weekend he notched up o100 yards, -1 through the air though which is where he’s done a lot of work since coming back.
A tough one to call, the Rams are the better team but the rest differential is extreme on this one with the Commies having the week off and the Rams having to play an extra 6 mins or so in OT last week. I like the OVER in this one though, should be a fun game for the neutral.
Cowboys +2 @ Bills: 49.5
A very easy choice for the late Sky game as the NFC East leading 10-3 Cowboys travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills fresh off a win over the Chiefs last week.
The Cowboys are far better at home this year but Dak Prescott is playing the best football of his career and they are clicking all over the shop. Tony Pollard is moving the ball well enough on the ground while CeeDee Lamb is playing as a top WR this season. Jake Ferguson is having a great year at TE for them and the likes of Brandin Cooks and Gallup have chipped in well on offense as well. They are probably the best defense in the league so far this year with Daron Bland killing it with pick-6’s so far.
The Bills won their Super Bowl last week but know they need to keep winning to make the playoffs so there shouldn’t be any rest from them. Josh Allen steps up on the ground in big games and since changing OC they’ve been finding James Cook a lot more out of the backfield as he’s hit form. Stefon Diggs has been a little underwhelming compared to his usual high standards but still puts in a shift, he’s still nearly at 1000 yards but 4 for 24 won’t do it. Dalton Kincaid has dropped off a bit recently after a huge month before that but they’ll need more from the support pieces to get a win here.
I struggle with the Bills, I just don’t think they’re that good. So I’m happy taking the Cowboys getting points. They have the far better defense here and the offense has been very good this year. I had it last week and I’ll take Josh Allen o35.5 rush yards this week as well. James Cook o2.5 receptions – 20/33 seems good as well. He had 5 last week.
Ravens -3 @ Jaguars: 41.5
The night closes with a top of the AFC clash as the 10-3 Ravens travel down to the 8-5 Jaguars who now have the Colts on their heels in the South.
For me the Ravens are the best team in the AFC, they’re probably the best defense in the conference and Lamar Jackson has been playing some of his best ball with some actual pass-catchers to aim for. Odell Beckham has settled in fully now with 97 and a TD last week and then you’ve got Zay Flowers who has had a good rookie season. Isiah Likely has done a decent job stepping in for Mark Andrews at TE. The run game is always good for them with the threat of Lamar taking off but they’ll want more from Gus Edwards on the ground, he’s thunder to Keaton Mitchells’ lightning.
I still can’t get on board with the Jaguars, they’re fine but they shouldn’t be near the 1 seed in the AFC. Trevor Lawrence looked better than expected playing with an ankle sprain last week but he did give the ball away a lot. He’s had a good season without really being able to step up to top 5 status. The run game has been fine led by Travis Etienne with D’Ernest Johnson as the backup there. The passing game has been going through Evan Engram in recent weeks, he had 11 for 95 and 2 scores last weekend, but faces a great LB corps tonight. Calvin Ridley has had big games and rookie Parker Washington has scored both games he’s been involved in after Christian Kirk went down.
I like the Ravens to win and cover on the road and further cement their one-seed potential.
Good Luck with your bets this week, looks like another fun one on the cards.
TouchdownTips 
Leave a comment