Only a few weeks left in the regular season as the games come thick and fast over the Christmas period, good luck trying to get to watch all the games on this weekend. Thursday night started the weekend with a win and a cover for the Rams who look like they’ll get a wildcard spot in the NFC now, I had the displeasure of watching Rudolph guide his team to a win over my atrocious Bengals last night, both teams are still around 20% max for the playoffs, Mike Tomlin needs another win to guarantee another non-losing season, a ridiculous record. The Bills won a close one against a bounce-back Chargers in LA to keep their chances of snatching the AFC East alive, Josh Allen ploughing in for 2 rushing TDs, he’s had 12 games this year with a rushing and a passing TD, a league record.
On to Sunday and Monday, there’s a few gifts for neutrals at the top of the slates with big NFC v AFC clashes, the two stud teams who can’t be good teams play in Miami as the Dolphins host the Cowboys while the best teams in each conference, the 49ers and Ravens close out the action on Monday Night Football, the first time since 1981 the two “1 seeds” in each conference have faced each other this late in the season.
If you do make some money tonight, consider donating to a charity, after all, it is the season of giving.
DraftKings contest is here – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/156339108
Browns -3 @ Texans: 40
The Browns beat the Bears last week in a close game while the Texans somehow battled through against the Titans.
Both teams are on their backup QBs so it’s Flacco vs. Keenum under center, possibly the oldest competition QBs in history? Can’t be too far off. The Browns have the better team around their QB though which is why they’re favourites on the road. David Njoku has been on fire (….) in recent weeks with Flacco under center racking up nearly 200 yards over the last fortnight and 3 TDs in those two games, he’s been the key man for them recently but Amari Cooper stepped up a little last week as well.
The Texans are without Noah Brown but should have Nico Collins as the rules state they’re not allowed more than one half-decent WR on the field at any one time, it seems Devin Singletary is keeping the role at RB with Dameon Pierce struggling to adapt to the new scheme after injury. They got a lot of pressure on a dismal Titans line last week and that won them the game but I don’t see that here.
Browns should win and cover, the Texans have had a great season but I don’t think they’ll make it through here against this Browns defense. Devin Singletary o15.5 rec. yards.
Lions -3 @ Vikings: 47.5
Lions smashed it last week, the Vikings lost to the Bengals, both on Saturday night so they have the same rest.
I had the Lions as my best bet on the Full10Yards pod, and while I still think they’ll win, my spirits have been dampened slightly by the guys on the RJ Bell pod having the Vikings as their best bets… I’m not convinced by Nick Mullens though, he was fine against the Bengals, but two of their TDs were throws that shouldn’t be made and the coaching let them down in the clutch. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison could have a field day against a regressing Lions secondary and Ty Chandler looks a better runner than Mattison though so they should still put up points.
Jared Goff is good inside and this is most definitely inside, HOWEVER, the main reason for fading him was his stats against the blitz and with the Vikings going blitz-heavy they will get to him. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta seem to be all that’s needed for them to move the ball through the air and Jamhyr Gibbs is reaping the benefits of a light early-season workload, he’s been fantastic recently. Do I want to take Monty after two scoreless games? Nah.
Should be a good game. I still like the Lions as the better team so I’m leaning to them covering despite the “sharps” going the other way. Gibbs TD – 11/10 best price, I’m happy with anything over evens.
Packers -4 @ Panthers: 37.5
The Packers looked like they hit their stride a month ago, but injuries have hit them and they’ve fallen off a cliff on both sides of the ball. The Panthers are terrible.
AJ Dillon might play through a thumb break, an RB doesn’t need one of them anyway? Aaron Jones is back but was ineffective on the whole last week and the injuries to all their pass catchers limited them severely last week while their defense allowed the first EVER perfect passer rating to Baker Mayfield last week, so things aren’t great in Wisconsin.
The Panthers have nothing of note.
Despite playing poorly recently, surely the Packers win and cover. It’s definitely not a bet, but I’d lean that way of course.
Colts +3 @ Falcons: 44.5
The Colts swap in Jonathan Taylor for Zack Moss as they head opposite ways on the injury report. The Falcons just can’t get out of their own way, their EPA with their hideous coaching is far under any other team it’s remarkable.
Taylor comes back into a full workload at running back but they’re without Michael Pittman who couldn’t get through concussion protocol, so I’d expect even more on the ground from JT. Josh Downs has had a good rookie season but they’ll now need Alec Pierce and the TE’s to step up without MPJ in the team. Big Mo scored last week and should have had 2.
The Falcons are the most frustrating team in the league to watch. They have studs they don’t use, and Ridder has killed them one too many times as they’ve now moved back to Taylor Heinicke at QB, YAY! – They’llk still have Arthur Smith calling things. The 1 TD per game and losses in every game he’s been involved in this year will definitely help things.
Fuck the Falcons, Fuck Arthur Smith. Have to lean to the Colts winning. The Colts have been an over team this year but it’s a high total so I like the under. Minshew to throw an INT – 20/23
Seahawks -3 @ Titans: 41.5
I don’t know what to make of this game, Geno and DK Metcalf got the win against the Eagles in the 4th quarter last week while the Titans couldn’t protect their QB and are now back to Ryan Tannehill at QB.
The Seahawks are the definition of league average to me, they can win games they shouldn’t and they’ll lose games they should win. Kenneth Walker ran well last week, DK came through in the key spots and JSN caught the game winner. They have talent, it’s just whether it clicks on a weekly basis.
The Titans aren’t good. Derrick Henry may have finally hit the limit, Deandre Hopkins can’t do it all himself and the defense has struggled without JK Simmons who’s now on IR. I do think it’s a boost at QB though with Tanny in there and he’s playing for a role in some team next season so will have to play well tonight.
The spot isn’t good for the Seahawks, but they’re the better team. Henry o9.5 rec. yards – One I’ve been on a few times this year, Tannehill being back should get him more involved there as Levis would just lob it long.
Commanders +3 @ Jets: 37
The Commies were terrible last week until Jake Brisket came in and did some work in garbage time while the Jets have been terrible for most of the season, so who the hell are they to be giving points to anyone?!
Sam Howell remains starter for the Commanders despite stinking it up last week and Antonio Gibson/Christian Rodriguez will likely split the carries again with B Rob out. Terry McLaurin had a good end to the game with Brissett, will Howell now use him more? Probably not against Sauce Gardner. Either way Curtis Samuel should get some work in the short game, as will Logan Thomas.
Trevor Siemian is in at QB, so…the Jets offense will likely be inept again.
I can’t have the Jets giving away points to anyone, lean to the Commanders, and under? Samuel up to 4.5 catches now, but 27/20… still tempting.
Jaguars -1 @ Buccaneers: 43.5
Trevor Lawrence might play, but it looks like it’ll be game-time, while Baker Mayfield can’t string together two good games in a row.
Zay Jones is out for the Jags, they need a win to keep hold of top spot in the AFC South but they’ve struggled recently so I have no faith in them. The workload might have hit Etienne while Calvin Ridley has been hit or miss all year. They’re a tough team to figure out.
The Buccs aren’t any easier other than the fact that Mike Evans will score. Chris Godwin came from nowhere with 155 yards last week against the Packers, will he disappear again this week? Rachaad White has been important for them this year in the run and short passing game, although he only had 2 receptions last week he did score.
I prefer the Buccs here but I trust neither side. Mike Evans down to 11/10 now, BOO. David Moore o9.5 Rec. yards?! My boy from a few years ago scored a TD last week, oh man, he’s 14/1 for a TD again (for those who don’t know a few years back I had my biggest winner on him scoring 1 and 2 TDs at 14/1 and 500/1 on PaddyPower, they now only offer 100/1 for 2+) – I’ll have a bet for old times sake.
Cardinals +4 @ Bears: 43
Kyler Murray, James Conner, Trey McBride. Boom, that’s it, but it was enough to put up 29 points against the 49ers last week where James Conner stepped up once more. Trey McBride will likely get another double-digit target game.
The Bears defense has been much improved since Montez Sweat arrived and Justin Fields has been fine, he should have a good game against a poor Cardinals defense. Cole Kmet is playing, he and DJ Moore are the passing game, that’s about it for the offense as the run game has been poor.
Lean to the faves once more, although realistically both could do with the loss. Rondale Moore longest reception – o13.5 – If he catches one it’ll be down the field.
Cowboys +1.5 @ Dolphins: 48.5
The evening Sky game was easy and should be a fun one, the Cowboys were dismantled in Buffalo while the Dolphins essentially had a bye week against the Jets. Both are flat-track bullies though so I have no idea which way this game is going. The Dolphins haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since WEEK 3 of LAST season, but they do stuff bad teams… Cowboys at least beat the Eagles a few weeks back.
The Cowboys struggle on the road in the cold but it’s expected to be a nice temp here and the weather seems fine so Dak won’t have any excuses if he can’t get the ball to Ceedee Lamb regularly. He’s been the main man for them this year in all positions across the offense. He’s been supported well by Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks and a host of WR3/4’s behind them two. Tony Pollard has done as I expected, he’s been fine but they need a proper bruiser to help him out, he can take one to the house from anywhere though.
The Dolphins did it without Tyreek last week as Waddle took all his yards, but he’s back this week and will likely have another huge game taking short slants down the field and in fairness, that’s how the ‘Fins need to play it as their patchwork offensive line will struggle to stop the Cowboys pass-rush, Tua is a king of getting the ball out quick and it may be even quicker here. Waddle will likely go back to his 4 catch roll. The run-game will be key for them though as the Bills destroyed them on the ground last week and Mostert and Achane are better than what their AFC East rivals have got. Mostert now on 20 TDs for the season is insane.
The spot is bad for the Cowboys but I think they’re the more rounded team, the better defense could be what gets it done for them. Mostert – 10/11 (Skybet) can get 21/20 at LivescoreBet if you’ve got that.
Patriots +7 @ Broncos: 35.5
115am on Christmas Day morning, good luck if you choose to be awake for this pile of crap.
Hunter Henry the only man to really look towards on the Pats side, he’s been scoring well recently.
The Broncos play simple football with the odd bomb to Courtland Sutton and it’s largely worked for them.
It’s a big spread for the Broncos to cover, maybe a Christmas miracle and an Over, but it could finish 3-9. Hunter Henry – 7/2 (Skybet)
Raiders +10.5 @ Chiefs: 40.5
Christmas Day evening has a couple of games starting with the AFC West as the Chiefs look to lock up the division, as if it’s in doubt.
Josh Jacobs should be back for the Raiders but they obviously did well enough without him last game with 63 points 11 days ago. Davante Adams will get his targets, Jakobi Meyers has been more effective in scoring TDs though, Mike Mayer is out at TE for them.
The Chiefs still can’t put up points, but 31 against this team a month ago was a high-point for them. Thankfully for them Kad Toney is out, as it Jerrick McKinnon so they’ll have to find someone else to drop the ball. Pacheco looks like he’ll be back at RB for them so he and Clyde will mix in, CEH likely now in the McKinnon role. The defense has been very effective.
I feel I should be taking the Chiefs covering as they destroy teams in their own division, but I can’t do it. Lean Raiders and the over.
Giants +13.5 @ Eagles: 43
This spread has gone up through the week and now makes the Giants tempting. The Eagles know if they win out they’ll be the 1 or 2 seed and will have retained the NFC East total thanks to their tougher schedule.
Tommy DeVito turned to shit after a cheap shot on him last week as they couldn’t move the ball at all against the Saints. The passing game has been utterly untrustworthy anyway but Saquon Barkley had been running well until last week, he’ll look to bounce back against an Eagles defense which has struggled but now changed DC. Giants D has been pretty good in fairness.
Jalen Hurts played well through illness last week but they lost, D’Andre Swift actually had a fairly decent game as well. AJ Brown has had a poor month while Devonta Smith might not be playing, so Dallas Goedert for the yards?
Eagles win, but you’ve got to take the Giants getting nearly 2 TDs, surely?
Ravens +6 @ 49ers: 46.5
What a way to finish out the weekend, the current top seed in each conference face each other in San Francisco. The line has been going up all week making it even better looking on the Ravens side of things. 7 underdogs in a row have won straight up on Monday night’s
Lamar Jackson is 19-1 straight up against the NFC, that’s quite a stat and due in part to the unique offense that the Ravens run, teams struggle to defend his running ability on the whole. The passing game has been good enough for them with Odell Beckham looking fine, Rashod Bateman doing bits and Zay Flowers having a good rookie season. They’ve been supported well by Isiah Likely who’s filled in nicely for Mark Andrews at TE. The run game took a hit this week though with Keaton Mitchell done for the year, he was the pace they needed to mix things up, so they’ll be back to the plodding Gus Bus and average Justice Hill for the most part on the ground.
The 49ers have been an unstoppable force on offense now they’re fully healthy but this will be the best defense they’ve faced. Brock Purdy is now 1/2 for MVP and he runs it all perfectly although I still struggle to give him full credit when it’s a lot of 5 yard passes of deeper shots to players in acres of space as the scheme gets seemingly everyone open all the time, he has hit some special passes this year so it’s not all Shanny. It helps having the best RB in the game behind him, McCaffrey has stared games with huge plays recently and will be dangerous throughout while Deebo Samuel has 7 TDs in his last 3 games after another double last weekend. Brandon Aiyuk had a rare game without a TD but he and George Kittle will smash through anyone to move the ball or block for others.
The 49ers defense was gashed a little on the ground last week and that’s where the Ravens are beast. This should be a great game, I like the overs and I’m convinced the AFC is better than the NFC so I’ll be taking the Ravens getting nearly a TD on the road. Deebo Samuel – 21/20 (Bet365) – have to take him above evens. Lamar o59.5 rush yards.
Merry Christmas to all, thank you for reading all year and I hope you have a wonderful festive period.
TouchdownTips 
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