A successful week on here last week, hitting all of the recommended picks in the early slates, only the Ravens and 49ers game letting me down, although I got the result correct with the Ravens comfortably running out winners and Brock Purdy’s MVP “hopes” going up in flames as we now see Lamar Jackson at a best price of 4/7 now as they look to tie up the 1 seed in the AFC, CmC is in 2nd at 15/2 and Josh Allen is 10/1 to round out the top three in the betting for that.
This week has had a couple of games already with the Browns securing a playoff spot (probably 5th) on Thursday night and the Cowboys beating the Lions by a point to pretty much void their chances of the 1 seed in the NFC as we enter a very busy New Years Sunday slate, good luck if you’re trying to watch anything tonight, especially the later games where I’ve got a HUGE issue with the Bengals and Chiefs game going through midnight over here in the UK.
The usual DK contest is here – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/156711923 – see in there new year with 5 of my hard earned dollars!
Dolphins +3.5 @ Ravens: 46.5
The Dolphins finally beat a winning team as they overcame the Cowboys last week at home in Miami while the Ravens took a huge step towards the 1 seed with a dominant win over the 49ers in San Fran.
The bigger news in this one is the Dolphins giving Raheem Mostert a game off to get rested for their playoff run after they secured at least a wildcard spot and possibly the AFC East title with their win last week. They’ve got bigger fish to fry than going all out to win this game tonight. They will have Tua and Tyreek though and that’s all they’ve needed for most of the year, get the ball quickly to the Cheetah and let him take it down the field, Jaylen Waddle has filled in well when needed but got banged up last week and will also be missing this week, so they’ll need big games from De’von Achane and the backup WRs. It means I’m looking straight away at Jeff Wilson receiving yards, which, of course aren’t available… If they pop up in single digits as they did last time then it’s a definite play. Cedric Wilson got a lot of targets with Waddle off, but this is a very good defense they’re going up against, so just a lean o39.5 for him.
The Ravens are surely the best team in the league this year after the result last weekend, they have had injuries and overcome them, they have a versatile QB, with decent weapons and a great defense supporting the offense. Lamar does very well against NFC opponents, not so much against the AFC, but these two don’t face each other too often so the unique offense should still have it’s desired effect. Gus Edwards is a plodder but will generally get in from a few yards away, Justice Hill didn’t do much on the ground either so it will likely be on Lamar’s legs and arm. Zay Flowers has shown how good a draft pick he was through the year and did well last week, backup TE Isiah Likely has filled in well for MAndrews who may be back in the post-season, Odell Beckham has popped up on occasion as have Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor.
I hate that this has popped up to 3.5 now but I still like the Ravens to cover. This is the Dolphins on the road without two key pieces of their offense and I don’t see the Ravens having a down-spot despite their big win last weekend. Lamar at 17/10 isn’t a bad price for a TD, but the rest of the guys are all low this week so I won’t be touching any. Keep an eye out for Jeff Wilson rec. yards!
Cardinals +12.5 @ Eagles: 48
The Eagles need to continue winning to secure a repeat of the NFC East while the Cardinals realistically could do with the loss to get a higher draft pick and that’s how things should play out.
The Cards are basically three guys; Kyler, Conner and McBride. With McBride injured for a lot of the game last week they had to move the ball around a bit and Greg Dortch randomly got a lot more of the ball although Conner led in receiving as well as rushing. They’re not trustworthy without Trey and with Kyler Murray officially questionable with “illness” they’re even less trustworthy.
The Eagles could do with getting right, but they will win here without too much effort. Jalen Hurts ran in his 15th TD of the year last week and is best priced 8/13 for another here. D’Andre Swift has upped his running recently but they will want AJ Brown to hit the form he was in earlier in the year, the return of Dallas Goedert should help a lot of the offensive woes they’ve had.
The Cards are fine, but don’t need a win, the Eagles are below par but should get the job done. I can only lean to the Cardinals getting the points. Under on the total. James Conner has 4 in his last 3 games, 8/5 isn’t bad at Will Hill.
Falcons +2.5 @ Bears: 38
Ugh, the Falcons are my nemesis, every time I think they’re dead they win a game as they did with Heinicke last week, while the Bears have had a couple of good games in a row now with a win over the Cardinals last week.
Falcons are alive in the NFC South still so the motivation is clear, I don’t trust them at all though, especially outside at Soldier Field, although the weather is looking fine for them at least. They should use Bijan and Drake London more, but they won’t. Jessie Bates will probably get another INT on defense. He’s a stud.
The Bears are a shallow team, but Khalil Herbert added a touch more for them on the ground last week. The passing game is DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, the second of which is questionable for tonight and there’s no prop lines on him, 9/4 for a TD is about though.
Bears win and cover? Their defense has been very good since Montez Sweat turned up. Khalil Herbert o27.5 rush yards – 10/11 That’s a low line for someone who had 110 last weekend, although Dont’a Foreman returning is the worry there, I think they’ll stick with Herb.
Panthers +4 @ Jaguars: 36.5
Panthers stink, they’ve made mistakes and it will kill the franchise for a good few years now, although Bryce Young had a career game last weekend against the Packers. The Jags are without Trevor Lawrence this week so CJ Beathard gets the starts.
Chuba Hubbard has run well for the Panthers, but the passing game is utterly untrustworthy, good luck getting another 2 TDs from DJ Chark. Adam Thielen was the man for the first half of the year and had 94 last week, should lead them in targets at least. That’s it.
The Jags with CJ Beathard are tough to judge and the fact they’re still comfy faves shows where the Panthers are, they are in danger of giving up the AFC South if they don’t finish strong, and they need the run game to step up again as Travis Etienne has dropped off in the second half of the year. With a backup QB in there it may be worth looking for Parker Washington to have a good game, he and Evan Engram are likely the main targets for CJ, and of course there’s no lines on him. Dicks.
I don’t know, I’d probably lean to the Panthers scrapping a close loss, but the Jags really need this game with the Colts and Texans tied atop the division. IF it pops up, I’d imagine it’ll be around 29.5 for Parker Washington, I’ll go over on that.
Rams -6 @ Giants: 43.5
The Rams should be in the playoffs now after a fine run with Kyren Williams back while the Giants are back to Tyrod Taylor after the Tommy DeVito experience ran it’s course.
Pretty simple for the Rams really, 20+ carries for Kyren Williams, 20 odd targets between Cooper Kupp and star rookie Puka Nacua who looks like he’ll be setting records in his debut season. There will be chunk shots for Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson will have a couple of touches as well.
The Giants looked better with Tyrod in the second half but are still hamstrung with a lack of talent, Darren Waller returned and did very little, Saquon is their guy, he should get 20+ touches regardless of gamestate. Darius Slayton is always good for a deep shot and he got it with a big TD last weekend from Tyrod, maybe a thing?
Rams should win and cover, but it’s outside and that always gives me pause with Stafford at QB. Under on the total.
Raiders +4 @ Colts: 42.5
The Raiders are spunky and officially still have a chance of snatching the AFC West from the Chiefs after they beat them last week while the Colts are 8-7 in the AFC South knowing 2 wins gives them a very good chance of winning it.
Will Josh Jacobs be playing this week? Seems unlikely as he’s listed as doubtful. Last week was one of the weirder games as Aiden O’Connell didn’t complete a pass outside the 1st quarter, the defense got the job done and Zamir White ran over the Chiefs late in the game. Devante Adams will of course be the main target in the passing game, Jakobi Meyers is probably the more likely to score a TD. They’re fun with Pierce at HC, but I have no idea who they are.
The Colts are entertaining if not reliable with Gardner Minshew in there, Zack Moss is out again so it’s all Jonathan Taylor on the ground, leaning on one of the best RBs in the league isn’t a bad place to be. It allows them to throw sparingly but the returns of Michael Pittman helps that area as they struggled without him last week. Josh Downs got his receptions for few yards as he always does and the TEs led the rest of it.
I’ve no idea on the spread here, I think the Colts win and cover, but there’s no confidence in that call, the Colts have been a deadnut over team all year, so lean that way with MPJ returning.
Patriots +14 @ Bills: 40
It’s nice seeing the Patriots stink, although they beat the Broncos last week to hurt their draft spot. The Bills won a closer game than expected as the Chargers pushed them close, but know winning tonight and next week vs. the Dolphins (assuming I’m right on their game) gets them the AFC East (9/4 for them to win it if you fancy that).
Hunter Henry being out got me a nice 9/1 on Gesicki scoring last week but that’s probably the only time I’ll be betting on the Pats offense, Henry is probably back this weekend. Zappe actually had a good statistical game as the run game died a death.
Josh Allen is in to 3rd fave for the MVP now, he’s been brilliant in terms of total TDs, but too many turnovers has hurt their season on the whole. Stef Diggs would love a good game but it won’t be easy as he’ll be the man they try to take away, Gabe Davis had one of his good games last week, so probably nothing from him this week. Dalton Kincaid has dropped off markedly with the new OC who focuses on the run game and James Cook out of the backfield, although that area disappeared last weekend.
Bills should win but it’s tough to beat a two TD spread against a solid defense in division, so lean to the Pats there. Over on a low total, could be defensive scores. James Cook o22.5 receiving yards.
Saints +2.5 @ Buccaneers: 42.5
A huge divisional game with the Buccs probably securing the South with a win after their 4th win in a row last week while the Saints lost to the Rams on TNF so have a fair bit more rest preparing for this.
The Saints are a tough one to judge, they move the ball well but things just don’t work for them. Chris Olave topped 100 yards, Juwan Johnson has popped up a bit and Rashid Shaheed did his big play thing with a 45 yarder. Alvin Kamara bounced back into the team earlier in the year but has been plodding along recently. Their defense isn’t what it used to be.
The Buccs and Baker Mayfield have hit form with Mike Evans showing he’s a shoe-in for the HoF when the time comes, another 2 TDs for him took him to 13 on the season. Chris Godwin had a second good game as well and Cade Otton did his bits, but Rachaad White’s emergence has helped the offense a lot recently, especially with dump-offs from his QB.
The Buccs are the form team but these games are always tough to call as they know each other so well. I like o3.5 receptions for Rachaad White though at plus odds
49ers -14 @ Commanders: 49.5
Want to bounce back after a poor loss? Playing the worst defense in the league should do that. The 49ers need one more win to secure the bye week and this should be it. The Commies are going with Jacoby Brissett after the Sam Howell experiment fell over.
Not a whole lot to say about the 49ers, they’re the best team in the conference and should take care of business here without too much worry. Cmc is a wonderful 3/10 to find the endzone again, Deebe is Evens and Aiyuk is 11/8 – I think Aiyuk would be my pick for at least one, I may go for a double on him after a couple of quieter weeks on the TD front for him. Chase Young getting a sack is probably locked on against his former team.
The Commies have been better with Brissett back there, he gets the ball to Terry McLaurin which is probably a sensible thing to do. Curtis Samuel is usually my go-to for 4 receptions but I won’t go there with the QB change, and Logan Thomas basically rounds out their offense. Brian Robinson is probably back at RB so the Rodriguezascance is probably done on the ground.
49ers win and cover. Aiyuk 11/8 anytime (BoyleSports) – 6/1 for 2+ on there too.
Titans +4 @ Texans: 44
We’ve got Tanny again? No, no we don’t Will Levis is back so I like the Texans. CJ Stroud returns for the Texans here as well which explains the bigger spread.
Tannehill played for the Titans in their close loss last week, but it was Derrick Henry throwing for a TD to Chig Okonkwo. Henry will need to do a lot of the work on the ground for them this week and inaccurate deep shots with return with Levis back there under pressure.
Despite losses, the Texans have kept decent form despite Stroud missing for a few weeks, and with him back with Nico Collins playing they should be able to move the ball well again on offense. They’re the better team.
Texans win and cover. Do I go back to Singletary rec yards? Nah, I’ll pivot to receptions for him – Devin Singletary o2.5 receptions – 27/20 (Bet365)
Steelers +4 @ Seahawks: 40.5
Rudolph delivered on Christmas Eve for the Steelers and his deep ball is the reason he keeps his job over Kenny Pickett this weekend, while the Seahawks won a close one now know a win should secure a wildcard spot for them going into their final game against the Cardinals.
This is going to sound like sour grapes, but I don’t think Rudolph did much last week, George Pickens was a phenom, his physical traits have never been in doubt, he dominated a poor Bengals defense, that won’t happen again here. Rudolph having to build drives is a worry for me even as a non-fan. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren ran the ball well and may have to do that more here. Allen Robinson was more involved than with Pickett so could be worth a look on props, Diontae Johnson was minimalised with the new QB, and Muth didn’t do a thing.
The Seahawks struggled but got there when it counted with Geno and DK showing up in the end, JSN had a lovely catch along the side as his role grows as the season moves on. With their three guys at WR and a good run game with Kenneth Walker they should be in most games they play and that showed last week.
This will be a close game, Pickens can’t repeat what he did last week (which, took him over his season TD line) – Seahawks win, we may be threading the needle here though with the Steelers covering. Tribet – Either team to win by 5 or fewer points seems the sensible bet, that’s 17/10 on Bet365 (Main props)
Bengals +6.5 @ Chiefs: 44
This probably should have been the game of the year, but Jake Browning against an inept Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs offense makes it significantly less interesting on offense.
Browning showed why he’s a backup as he couldn’t cope with the Steelers defense last week but he did manage to get Tee Higgins another TD as he broke for a 75-yarder. The Bengals should have Chase back for this one as he returned to training, as a fan I don’t like that he’s been winding up the Chiefs defense all week but you can’t doubt his confidence. The Bengals need to get the run game going with Joe Mixon and Chase Brown to be able to get the win here.
The Chiefs offense has been putrid as Mahomes is constantly let down by his receivers, and Travis Kelce has fallen off a cliff as his relationship with Swifty heats up. The Chiefs will have Pacheco available after he cleared concussion protocol and they should use him a lot on the ground against a poor Bengals run defense. Rashee Rice has been the only reliable guy in the passing game, the likes of Richie James and Justin Watson can pop up a bit but aren’t reliable in the slightest. The Chiefs defense has been VERY good this season and is the reason they’re atop the division.
The Bengals build to beat the best team in the conference and that has been the Chiefs; They tend to play Mahomes well and restrict him and with Cam Taylor-Britt back at CB they’re looking better there, he will probably be on Rice. They usually do well to lock down Mahomes on the ground but he’s had to do a lot recently and I’ve got to take o22.5 rush yards for him scrambling. I’ll take o11.5 receiving yards for Chase Brown – poor game for him last week but that’s a low line for an explosive player.
I liked the Bengals getting 7, they could win outright but the defensive woes for them worry me despite the poor Chiefs offense this year, I’ll lean to the Chiefs -6.5 and under on the total.
Chargers +3.5 @ Broncos: 36.5
The Chargers got a new coach bounce to keep the game against the Bills close while the Broncos made the move to bench Russell Wilson after a loss to the Patriots.
The Chargers are without Keenan Allen and Trey Palmer once more so the passing game goes to shit, Austin Ekeler looked better last week and Gerald Everett did OK in the passing game, Easton Stick on the ground was a good look for them at least. Their defense looked a LOT better with players actually putting effort in and while I think Derwin James is a dirty player he had a good game playing closer to the LoS scrimmage against the Bills.
The Broncos are starting Jarret Stidham, the Wilson thing seems to be to prevent him getting injured as that would mean his salary was guaranteed next year, so it’s financial as Sean Payton clearly isn’t impressed. Courtland Sutton has been the TD guy, he’s out this week, so Jerry Jeudy needs to step up, they’re a mess on offense actually so may look to Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine to move the ball. Backups like backups though, so it could be McLaughlin, basically. I have no idea.
I think I should go for the Broncos, but the turmoil on offense worries me. I don’t think the Chargers are very good but I’ll take them to cover. Easton Stick 11/2 (PaddyPower) – My Alex Erikson is down at 23/4 now after 14/1+ last week. Adam Trautman – 14/1 (Skybet) seems very good though, I may nibble 2+ at the odds too.
Packers +1 @ Vikings: 43.5
The Packers scraped a win against the Panthers last week while the Vikings had a rough one against the Lions, they’ve made a change at QB due to that.
The Packers are getting a little healthier, should have Jones and Dillon in the backfield again and the passing game isn’t too bad although Wicks and Watson are probably both out, they’ve moved the ball well enough with Doubs and Reed in the passing game and Tucker Kraft has been reliable enough at TE as well.
The Vikings are now without TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison so they’re screwed in the passing game and the move to Jaren Hall at QB doesn’t fill me with confidence either. So, Justin Jefferson having a huge game seems the only way they’re going to get down the field. Ty Chandler will keep the main role on the deck despite Alexander Mattison returning. People still rate the Vikings defense, I’m still not convinced.
I like the Packers to win and cover and move towards the playoffs. It’s nearly January so AJ Dillon will probably score – 11/4 at PaddyPower the best for him.
And that’s the year done, nearly 20,000 views on here for me this calendar year. Thank you all for reading and I hope you have a good New Year Eve, of course I’ll be back for the final week and playoffs going forward.
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