A very strange Week 18 with more teams than ever on the cusp of the playoffs, but somehow, seemingly, more dead rubber games than ever and with that there will be teams resting players throughout the league, I’ll try and get to everything as we go through the games, but the headlines so far; Mahomes, Purdy, Stafford, Flacco all rested, so it’s Gabbert vs Chargers, Darnold vs Wentz in that game and Jeff Driskel becomes the first QB for a long time to play for the Browns and Bengals there. I’m sure there’s a lot more I’ve missed but I’ll get to them through the previews.
So, obviously the key to this week is keeping an eye on the news, I probably won’t be placing many bets until 1630 GMT when team news is officially released – However if you see something you may be able to get a decent price by getting ahead of it.
Then there’s player incentives for the final week. Sal Vetri (@SalVetriDFS) put out a thread on several which could come into play and maybe worth keeping an eye on https://x.com/SalVetriDFS/status/1741844809004827113?s=20 – There’s been a fair bit of chat over whether this thread is any use of not, don’t bet blindly off it, obviously, but use it as another bit of information for making your bets this week. Odell being the first one on there and now not playing in Week 18 immediately dumps on that. On the whole though we’ve evidence that teams will generally try and get players incentives to build a decent culture within them.
The Steelers beat the Ravens 3rd stringers in the monsoon last night to keep their hopes of the playoffs alive but they still need either the Bills or Jaguars to lose tonight to make it in, while the Texans won the late game to get to 10 wins and at least a wildcard spot – possibly the 4th seed should the Jaguars lose on the road in Tennessee tonight.
Week 18 DFS? It’s pretty fucking crazy – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/157044929
Jaguars -4.5 @ Titans: 42
Expect full strength from both teams.
Not the game I would have chosen, but the Jaguars are meant to be the UKs team and a win for them here would get them the AFC South regardless of other results. A loss for them and the Texans snatch the division. The Titans will be bottom no matter what after a horrible year.
The Jags should have Trevor Lawrence back but they’ve been faltering for a while now after a good run in the middle of the season, the run game isn’t working well enough and even with Lawrence healthy it’s not gone well recently. Travis Etienne got a double last week and Tanks Bigsby got involved again after a few weeks of no touches. The passing game could have some weapons back instead of relying too much on Evan Engram, with Kirk and Jones possibly returning for them. The defense is fine. Whatever.
The Titans did the right thing in trying to bed in Will Levis but he’s not good. He’s got an arm on him and he might improve with a full off-season but he is what he was coming in, wild and inaccurate, sure it’s more fun than Tannehill but I don’t think it gives them more chance of winning. A guy who does usually win against the Jags though is Derrick Henry, he’s had a down year and is probably finally hitting his limit after years of 300+ touches, but he has a good record against this opponent, 16 TDs in 14 games in his career against them. Deandre Hopkins is a name to note for incentives, needing 49 yards for $1m, 7 catches for another $250k – He, correctly, has been a target downfield for Levis so I prefer the over on his line, but it’s high at 63.5, a line he’s only hit 6 times this year. I like Chig, other than that it’s not a fun Titans team.
Weirdly I think the Titans play berserker well and Mike Vrabel will go all out to stop the Jags winning the division. I like the Titans to cover the spread.
Falcons +3 @ Saints: 42
Expect full strength from both teams.
The NFC South is fucking stupid. The Falcons win it if they win and the Buccs lose to the Panthers. The Saints win it if they win and the Buccs lose to the Panthers, however they could snatch a wildcard spot if the Packers and Seahawks both fail to win… Simple.
I like the Falcons as a team, I hate Arthur Smith and hopefully he’ll be gone when they lose here. It will be Taylor Heinicke starting again, I guess? It doesn’t matter, neither QB has shown enough to be a starter and yet they still seem too stupid to just load up Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier with 40 touches a game on the ground. Drake London should be the main target, but other than that it’s a shitshow on a weekly basis.
The Saints have been frustrating their fans all year as well though, but they seem to have been playing all right. Looking at the TE’s in TD betting seems to be the sensible thing to do with Juwan Johnson or Jimmy Graham have been scoring. Alvin Kamara left the game with a shoulder injury last week, I asssume he plays, but that’s up in the air, it’s all Jamaal Williams otherwise. Chris Olave is great and Rashid Shaheed has a pro bowl nod as a returner, has shown explosivity as a downfield threat.
Saints should win and cover. Fuck Arthur Smith.
Browns +7 @ Bengals: 37
BROWNS RESTING, BENGALS FULL STRENGTH
The Browns have the 5 spot wrapped up so they’re resting most of their main guys here. Flacco is out, so Jeff Driskel is in, that’s 4th or 5th string at QB? The Bengals season died in the second half last week, possibly the worst half of football I’ve ever seen from them, but they won’t want to go 0-6 in division and this is their last chance to get a win, they are probably going full strength here.
Amari Cooper is out injured and we don’t yet know who else will play, my thoughts are that David Njoku will be rested as such an important guy for them. So they’ll need the younger players to step up, David Bell, Cedric Tillman and Pierre Strong on the ground. They’ll be resting their starting CBs as well, so a very much changed Browns team for this one.
The Bengals may have played their last game with Tee Higgins as he’s likely missing due to another hamstring injury, it’s been a rough year for him. Ja’marr Chase is in though playing with a shoulder injury so he and Boyd will probably have to do it. Tanner Hudson has stepped up at TE for them with Irv Smith disappointing this year. Joe Mixon needs a couple of scores for $100k and after taking a pay cut to stay on the team you’d think they’ll try and get him that. Trey Hendrickson knows that he needs at least 2 sacks to share the Sack record this year, the Bengals have never had a player lead the league in sacks.
I don’t think I can underplay how bad Jake Browning was in the second half last week. Admittedly against a good Chiefs D, but it worries me them covering any big spread now. I don’t mind the Bengals winning here, but I like the Browns to cover ATS.
Vikings +3.5 @ Lions: 46
FULL STRENGTH FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF – I’ve not seen anything about the Lions resting players, but it makes sense that they would
The Vikings are somehow still alive for the playoffs, they need the Packers, Seahawks and either the Buccs or Saints losing. The Lions won their first EVER NFC North title and are probably the #3 seed (Cowboys likely beat the Commanders), despite that, Dan Campbell doesn’t seem like the type of coach to give his players a rest.
The Vikings are back to Nick Mullens after a hideous Jaren Hall performance last week. The QB situation has killed them, so Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will struggle to put up much and Ty Chandler and Alexander Mattison have shown they’re average at best on the ground. They do play a relatively poor Lions defense here though. We know it’ll be Jefferson getting most targets, and then behind him you’re probably looking at Mundt or Oliver at TE.
Despite the Campbell aggression, I do think he’ll give his main guys a rest in the second half, so it may be worth looking at a first half line for them here. It would be silly to give Montgomery and Gibbs the entire game. Jameson Williams is out, I’d imagine Amon-Ra St. Brown gets the first half as well. So it may be sensible to look for the Reynolds bros, Josh and Craig.
I still think the Lions win and cover here despite it being essentially a meaningless game for them. Craig Reynolds anytime – 14/1 (Betfred), 66/1 Last TD scorer (Bet365) – Hopefully you’re allowed more than the 76p that vBet granted me.
Jets +1.5 @ Patriots: 30
BOTH FULL STRENGTH ALTHOUGH THAT DOESN’T MEAN MUCH HERE
Other than draft position this game means very little. It MAY be the final game for Belichick in New England? The Jets look like they’re bringing it back with Aaron “Slanderman” Rodgers next year.
The Jets stink but Trevor Siemian loves Breece Hall in the passing game so we might, at least, have an angle to look at here. He caught 9/9 targets last week to take him to 43 receptions in the last 6 weeks. Other than that, Garrett Wilson is very good, he’s finished with another 1,000 yard season on a hideous offense, that’s really quite impressive. If they choose to lay off a bit on Hall I don’t mind a look at Izzy Abinikanda finding the endzone for them, although I can’t take 11/2 on him.
The Pats won’t have a fun off-season, they will have a top 5 pick at least and probably need to take a QB as they’re in limbo at that position at the moment. It’ll be Zeke on the ground with Kevin Harris supporting and not much through the air as the QB is so poor. Their defense did do well against the Bills last week though.
Keep an eye on Hunter Henry news, he’s best priced 7/1 and Gesicki is 6/1 to score, Zappe likes the TE if they ever get near the endzone, both best priced at PaddyPower/Betfair. Result? No idea, Pats get the win, and Over? It’s a horribly low total.
Buccaneers -4 @ Panthers: 36.5
BOTH FULL STRENGTH
Simple for the Bucs, if they win, they win the division and the 4 seed. If they lose, they don’t. The Panthers… well, they’re a fucking mess after trading away their future for someone who seems to be my height and weight at QB. Yikes.
Baker Mayfield finally realised he was Baker Mayfield last week before going out injured, it looks like he’ll be fine to go in this one, that must be good news for Mike Evans, who currently leads the league in receiving TDs, Chris Godwin who has appeared recently and Trey Palmer/Cade Otton as the bit part guys. Rachaad White remains the main way they move the ball on the ground and with dump offs.
The Panthers are the worst team in the league. They stink like a butt. Chuba Hubbard has been running all right, the passing game isn’t trustworthy in the slightest.
I believe the Bucs should win and cover. Mike Evans anytime – 6/5
Bears +3 @ Packers: 45
BOTH FULL STRENGTH
This is rightly the choice for Sky in the late slot as the Bears have come on at the end of the season and the Packers know a win gets them into the playoffs.
The trade for Montez Sweat by itself seems to have bolstered the Bears defense to an extent that it’s functional now and the combination of Fields, Moore and Kmet seems to be enough in the passing game for them to move the ball well. Khalil Herbert has been good on the ground since returning from injury, they didn’t even need Dont’a Foreman last week as Herbert had 124 yards on 18 carries last week, they mixed it up with Johnson and of course Fields rushed a lot too, all three found the endzone on the ground against a previously fairly solid Falcons run defense.
The Packers have had a rollercoaster season but with Aaron Jones now getting healthy and pass-catchers returning they’ve had a good push for the post-season. Jordan Love has settled into his starter role well and Jayden Reed has been very good at WR for them, he cost me a Fantasy league last week with 2 TDs. Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft at TE have all helped out as well. They’re a very good young team, things look bright for them going forward. They do struggle against the run though and that’s where the Bears want to live.
Should be a very interesting game, the Bears have the Panthers pick (idiots) so they’re 1.01 next year already and a win here wouldn’t cost them anything. They could do it, but I like the Packers to get the job done and cover the spread.
Cowboys -13 @ 46.5
Both full strength, at least until the 4th quarter, expect the Cowboys to rest players if they can
A win for the Cowboys takes back the NFC East and continues the remarkable streak of no team retaining that division. The Commanders would probably rather lose to secure the 2nd pick in the draft.
There’s no much to say about this game really, Dak and Lamb are the best in their position since their bye week and they’ve been playing well against better teams rather than just beating up losers. Jake Ferguson is probably second in targets and Brandin Cooks has shown he can do it down the field. I think the lack of effective run game will cost them in the playoffs, but Tony Pollard does have sparks, they probably need more from Rico Dowdle who could get a bit of work late on in this one.
Sam Howell had a strange season, he’s got the yards and TDs but SOOOO many costly turnovers behind a horrible offensive line has killed his team too often. He prefers Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas to Terry McLaurin so might be another tough week for F1 there. They’re not good on defense.
Cowboys should win comfortably but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Commies get a backdoor cover in the 4th quarter if they start benching players.
Broncos +3 @ Raiders: 37
BOTH FULL STRENGTH
Nothing to play for in this one but they’ll both be full strength to end the season with positivity.
The Broncos have Jarrett Stidham in again, and he did get a win last week at least. Josh Jacobs is again out for the Raiders.
Nothing much on the Broncos, Courtland Sutton returns for them, and it looks like Trautman is in despite a knock last week which hurt my long-shot bet, he’s 1 TD away from a 100k bonus, which is interesting, but he’s now down to 9/2, which is shit. Jaleel McLaughlin led them in yardage on the ground, he may get a bit more with the season done. Perine over on his rec. yards again? Had 16 last week.
The Raiders will likely ride Zamir White again and minimise the use of Aiden O’Connell as they have tried to do for most of the season. Devante Adams had a championship-winning fantasy performance last week with 126 and 2 TDs from 13 receptions, I am not expecting that again! Other than that, they’ve been solid on defense, Jakobi Meyers pops up every now and then.
I don’t know, Raiders win?
Chiefs +3.5 @ Chargers: 35
CHIEFS RESTING MOST OF THEIR GUYS, CHARGERS ARE POO
Mahomes, their corners, Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney (lolz) are all expected to miss out here, so it’s Blaine Gabbert with a depleted pass-catching corps. Travis Kelce needs 16 yards to hit 1,000 on the season, Chris Jones needs 0.5 sack to get an incentive. I don’t think we’ll see either but there’s that. Without the main guys there, Blake Bell? There’s no lines out on this game anyway.
The Chargers have stepped up on defense since the change of head coach and Easton Stick isn’t bad running the ball but they’re a horrible mess this year and probably can’t wait for the season to finish.
I still don’t mind the Chiefs getting points here despite the depleted roster.
Rams +4 @ 49ers: 41
BOTH TEAMS RESTING MAJOR PLAYERS
The Rams are benching Stafford, Donald, Kupp and most other starters, the 49ers are doing similar with Purdy, although it looks like they may have to risk some of their stud players with injuries around the roster, so while they might not see the field much it does seem that McCaffrey, Aiyuk and Deebo will be active at least.
Carson Wentz gets the start at QB, I assume Royce Freeman and Ronnie Rivers getting the ball on the ground? Puka needs 4 receptions and 29 yards to break the rookie receiving record – They’re resting a lot of guys, but surely they pepper him in the first quarter and then give him the rest of the night off? Tutu Atwell and Davis Allen of interest at slightly bigger prices, I may have a pop on Ronnie Rivers at 5/1 (PaddyPower)
Elijah Mitchell is the lowest anytime scorer, which makes sense he’s Evens, Jordan Mason is 2/1 – One of them at least will score, maybe worth a go on the both scoring, in fairness. Without any real sign of how much time anyone will get it’s mostly a stay away game but there could be value on the backups.
It looks like the 49ers will still have a stronger active roster than the Rams compartively speaking so despite them having the 1 seed and bye week I like them to win and cover here.
Eagles -5 @ Giants: 42
BOTH STRONG FOR AT LEAST A HALF
It’s been a bit of a nightmare end to the year for the Eagles, they scraped some wins early on but that came home towards the end of the year and now they’re going to be the 5th seed unless something remarkable happens in Dallas. With that in mind I assume they’ll be keeping an eye on the score over there and will make moves based on the half time score, if the Cowboys are 14 up (which seems plausible) then I’d expect the Eagles to bench key players ready for their game in Dallas next week. Jalen Hurts has been playing injured most of the year, they’re without Devonta Smith here, and AJ Brown had a good month but has been ineffective recently. The run game is probably the place to look but Boston Scotts TD price is deflated as he scores against the Giants every year.
The Giants will have Tyrod starting, he’s liked Darius Slayton for some big gains but the bookies seem to know that, his lines are high. Saquon Barkley has been very good in a bad year for the Giants, but they’ve been playing hard on a weekly basis still. Slayton needs 5 receptions for 100k and 42 yards for another cash-in, his line is 43.5 on Bet365.
Eagles should win, but it’s a game that probably doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. Slayton o43.5 rec. yards – There are hardly any props out there for this game.
Seahawks -3 @ Cardinals: 47.5
BOTH FULL STRENGTH
The Seahawks are in need of help to make the post-season, obviously they need a win, then they need the Packers to lose (there are tie implications but I won’t bother with that). Cardinals have shown some spunk in recent weeks at least.
I say it every week, the Seahawks have a good roster but Geno Smith won’t lead them deep in the playoffs if they do manage to get there. Kenneth Walker is a good RB, DK, Lockett and an ever-improving JSN are a good trio and they like their TEs in the passing game as well. They’re really not bad on offense. Metcalf is the obvious man for a TD, 13/10 the best price for him to finish the season with a score.
The Cardinals scored 35 points last week against the Eagles, but it wasn’t just the points, they controlled the ball with 40 mins of possession, a fully deserved win. James Conner has been running very well, Kyler Murray is targeting Trey McBride and Greg Dortch seems to have come from nowhere to get some yards. They’re not a deep team but it’s obviously working for them at the moment and they’ll push the ‘Hawks close here.
Seahawks win, but it may well be by three points. Conner is evens for a TD, I’d love some rec. yards on Michael Carter but that doesn’t look like it’ll be available.
Bills -3 @ Dolphins: 48.5
An easy choice to close out the evening with the AFC East and 2 seed the prize for the winner here, a loss for them and they could miss the playoffs completely depending on the result in the Jags game. The Dolphins win and they’re the 2 seed, they lose and they’re 6 seeds playing the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
The Bills have finished the season strong and should be the worry for everyone in the playoffs, if they make it. Josh Allen has thrown INTs this year but also leads the league in total TDs, he’s set records for passing and rushing TDs in single games this season and that doesn’t look like stopping. The change of OC has meant more for James Cook, Latavius Murray and now Leonard Fournette on the ground and less for the WRs but they’ve been winning so there shouldn’t be complaints. Stefon Diggs has hit 1000 yards on the year but hasn’t had 100 yards for 10 games now and hasn’t scored in a month. Kincaid had a big month but has dropped off and Gabe Davis is hit or miss, more miss recently.
The Dolphins are probably without Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle so their shallow offense gets more shallow and we saw how that went last week against a good team. De’von Achane will get most of the ball in the backfield with my boy Jeff Wilson chipping in, Tyreek Hill will get most of the targets in the passing game with Cedric Wilson and TE Durham Smythe offering some alternates to the 15 targets Tyreek will probably get. No fucking lines out on the Dolphins players for this game, very frustrating.
I think the Bills win and they do it pretty easily. I tried to be positive about the Dolphins after they beat the Cowboys and then they allowed a 50-burger to the Ravens last week. The one good thing for them is that they’re at home, but I don’t think it’s enough and they’ll be losing to Mahomes next week. Sorry Dolfans.
And with that the season comes to a close. Of course I’ll be back with previews for the playoffs starting next week and I might try and get a prediction comp for that together, so keep an eye out on Twitter (X) and here for that.
TouchdownTips 
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