It has been tough to get the time and energy to put together my usual previews of divisions and bets around the league this year, so with under a week to go until the first games of the season and a little time on my hands I figured I’d get some thoughts down in print for the upcoming season.
I, along with Tim and Liam from Full10Yards have done podcasts which are available on the Full10Yards feed at all pod-catchers and on Youtube at Full10Yards channel and I’ve contributed a betting preview to the Full10Yards guide, available now for £10, it gets you entry into their redraft and pick’em leagues!
If you fancy meeting up with us in Birmingham next week they are throwing a new season party at BOX Birmingham. – https://www.full10yards.co.uk/full10yards-to-host-nfl-kickoff-party-at-box-birmingham/
Also, I’m running Season Long DFS, £25 entry and we create a leaderboard from weekly DK contests, check out nfl-dfs.com for more info!
I’ll have a quick blitz through the main markets and how I think things may end up, some of the bigger markets, and a look at some of my favourite player props from the millions available each off-season.
AFC
It would be silly to disregard the Chiefs again, their division looks even easier this year than last so 2/5 for them to win that, and 10/3 or so for them to go three-peat seems fairly priced. The Ravens (11/2) and Bengals (15/2) look the strength of the North, the Bengals 4th placed schedule gives them the edge although they’ll need to win more than 1 game in division to achieve that. The East looks competitive if Rodgers can manage more than 4 snaps this season the Jets (12/1) should be up there with the Bills (9/1) and Dolphins (13/1), it’s too tough for me to call, all looks good on paper, but have glaring issues as well. Is Rodgers good enough now? Do the Bills have the offensive talent to offset a weak looking defense? Can the Dolphins beat any team with a winning record? The South looks like it could be the Texans (17/2) for the next couple of years, they have a star QB on a rookie contract and they’re doing what any team should do and building around him before they have to pay him.
AFC playoff teams, in order of likelieness to win the conference, for me personally – Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Colts, Jags (I do think a second team comes out of the South). Might be worth a sneaky bit on the Texans getting the 1 seed as they’ve got a far easier conference than the North and East.
NFC
The top of the NFC is a little more muddied. The 49ers are in as faves (3/1), as you’d expect after making it last year and not having a huge turnover on their roster although I think the Rams (14/1) will push them close in division (all three of us had the Rams to take the division on the NFC East podcast). The North should be between the Lions (11/2) and the Packers (8/1), both hype teams from their performances last year and it should be a good fight between them, I’ll be tracking the Bears but I think it’s a season before they’ll be challenging properly. The East will be the Eagles (6/1) as no-one repeats in that division and the Giants and Commies aren’t there yet. The South is wide open for Kirk Cousins’ Falcons (14/1) to win with a new head coach who hopefully knows how to use their studs, and they’ve strengthened on defense as well.
NFC playoff teams, in order – Rams, Lions, 49ers, Packers, Eagles, Falcons, Seahawks? – That 7 spot is actually pretty tough to call, Hawks or Cowboys, I worry about the lack of depth for the Cowboys, they’ll need the defense to step up to give them the chance this year.
Divisions
Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Texans – Rams, Lions, Eagles, Falcons
I’ll probably put together a “top 2 any order” acca on these – Bengals/Ravens, Eagles/Cowboys, Lions/Packers, Rams/49ers – But that will depend on odds, I’d fancy it at 10/1 or so, but there are a lot of moving parts if going for it which doesn’t tend to bode well.
I don’t tend to back anything for the Super Bowl, my only open bets there are Bengals and Packers at 80/1 or so from February and Bengals and Eagles at 55/1. Remember if you are looking to back Super Bowl matchup to check AFC/NFC Winner double as you may well find they’re better odds than the combinations created by those dastardly bookies.
Awards
I don’t tend to back award winners either as the odds generally aren’t worth it for the amounts I stake. MVP I’d be looking at Stroud or Burrow but probably not at the odds available for them.
OROY looks like it should be Caleb Williams with the players they’ve put around him they should win more games than the Commanders or Patriots will with Daniels/Maye respectively and I don’t think it will be anything other than a QB. I don’t tend to back defensive markets so I won’t go near DROY.
Personally (as someone who dislikes the Steelers) I thought TJ Watt should have won DPOY last season so I’ll probably be on him this year, but it’s one I tend to avoid, as is OPOY which is a bit of a crap shoot as well. CMC seems most likely there again as he’s a stud but you won’t make much money on that.
CBPOY is surely nailed on to be Aaron Rodgers. It’s only around even money so I’d be looking to chuck it in with something else if it was possible. BUT out of all the markets it looks the most likely.
Leaders
These markets aren’t quite needle in a haystack, but trying to find one in a small pile of hay… so I’m looking at players at 10/1 or above who I think will out-play their odds.
Passing Leader
Tua (10/1) or Burrow (9/1) looks the most likely to me, we know Tua will do it with Tyreek Hill, Waddle is a good 2, the RBs can take a dump-off to the house as well. It’s similar with Burrow, whois coming into the season healthy for once, has Chase (I don’t think he’ll miss any games even if a contract isn’t sorted) and Higgins, a decent pass-catching back and a TE who should be better than what they’ve had the last couple of season.
Receiving Leader
Ceedee Lamb (15/2) seems the most likely as there’s not a whole lot of competition around him and we know Dak loves him, but his odds reflect that. Drake London (25/1) could be worth a shout at the odds without too much competition there and a new QB in Kirk Cousins who we know will heavily target his favourite guy. Garrett Wilson (22/1) could be worth a look if Rodgers comes back, like Cousins we know that A-aron will target someone he trusts and Wilsons has had 1,000 in back2back years with terrible QBs, if Rodgers is adequate it will be an improvement for him.
Rushing Leader
Josh Jacobs (20/1) looks a decent bet with AJ Dillon heading to IR for the season. I don’t think Dillon would have taken much away from the new GB Packers star but without him there it’s JJ and rookies, one of which is already nursing a hamstring injury coming into the season.
I love Breece Hall (9/1) this year, no-one competing with him in NY and Jonathon Taylor (7/1) could benefit from a rushing QB beside him in Indy, again with little contest to his role expected although their odds are rightly shorter than Jacobs.
Player Props
Ah, my bread-and-butter, although it is tough to make any big money from them without a decent stake as you tend to be looking O/U, so 5/6 or so on each side. There are generally a few which leap out at me each season.
George Pickens o4.5 receiving TDs – 4/6 (PP) The Steelers should have better QB play than they’ve had in the last decade or so even if Wilson and Fields aren’t great and they have virtually no-one else to throw the ball to, their WR2 is Van Jefferson? Pat Friermuth is a good pass-catching TE but he won’t be taking away from Pickens. 3/1 and 7/1 for 8 and 10 respectively is a little tempting as well at the odds on Skybet.
Cam Taylor-Britt o1.5 interceptions – 4/5 (PP) – Sticking in the AFCN and heading to my team, CTB is a very, very good CB and could get this in one game. Add to that the easy schedule the team face this season with some less-than-elite QBs on the other side of the ball and I can see this hitting.
Josh Jacobs o925.5 rushing yards – As I intimated above, there’s no competition for him in the run game in Green Bay now with AJ Dillon out for the season, they’ll mix in the rookies but Jacobs should be flying over 1000 yards if he stays healthy through the year.
Rashid Shaheed o3.5 receiving TDs – 5/6 (PP) – He’s the second target at the Saints and while I don’t think they’re a great team Shaheed should be able to score 1 in every 4 games at least. Surely.
TouchdownTips 
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