FOOTBALL’S BACK BABY!!! Ravens @ Chiefs

The Summer is officially over! As if the fact it’s freezing cold and dark at 8pm already wasn’t enough evidence for us, the 2024 NFL season begins this week and as always it kicks off with the Super Bowl winners hosting an exciting-looking game, and once again it’s the Kansas City Chiefs, this year hosting last seasons MVP, Lamar Jackson and his Ravens team at Arrowhead.

Before I get into the preview I’ve got to post about Season Long DFS which I’ve taken over for the year; £25 entry and a weekly DraftKings contest which gets collated into a season-long leaderboard with the top 3 paid at the end of the regular season (and 6-weekly winners during the season). We’ve got 25+ in there at the moment, visit NFL-DFS.com for more info if you want to get involved by Saturday evening.

Chiefs

The Chiefs have been in the news a lot over the off-season for the wrong reasons with Rashee Rice, Wanya Morris and Chukwuebuka Godrick and Isaiah Buggs all being bellends and getting in trouble with Johnny Law over the summer. Luckily for them it’s had no real effect on their preparations for the year though as the Rice incident rumbles on and the NFL delay making a decision on suspension until after his court case concludes, so here they are ready for week 1 with a pretty much full-strength roster.

Patrick Mahomes continues to pull the strings at QB and as I say every year he’s the best we’ve ever seen and he proves it every damn year even throwing in some tricks in training camp and pre-season to get the juices of the hungry masses flowing. I know a lot think he’ll be topping 4500 yards and nearing 40 TDs this year, I’m not quite as positive on his numbers as I’m not convinced his pass-catchers are strong enough and with a strong defense he shouldn’t have to be chasing games, but I won’t ever deny his talent.

He has a hard-running RB in Isiah Pacheco who finished last season just under 1000 on the ground and 7 TDs in the regular season as well as 3 in the playoffs to help his team to the Lombardi. They didn’t do anything in the draft or free agency to suggest he won’t have the same role this season, so I think we’re looking at a very similar year for him. Clyde Edwards-Helaire begins the season on PUP with PTSD (which is horrible) so misses the first 4 games so they signed Samaje Perine after his release from the Broncos who will act as the 3rd down back and tends to do a pretty good job of it. It remains to be seen how Carson Steele does, the undrafted rookie smashed his way to big yards against bums in pre-season but looks like he’ll have a role coming into the year. Personally I think it’s Pacheco/Perine/Steele, but we’ll see quite quickly. Perine is available at 5/1ish for score, there is a 9/1 for Steele at PaddyPower/Betfair if you want a little more expansive.

The passing game looks like it will go through Travis Kelce once more. Unfortunately for fans of other AFC teams his demise looks like it’s going to be far slower than I’d personally hoped, and if he breaks up with Taylor Swift on the 28th of September as predicted then he’ll be doubly focused on being a Chief (or maybe his podcast with his brother) – Just the 934 yards and 5 TDs for him last season. Rashee Rice will be the lead WR as he avoids suspension for now, he was trusted by Mahomes last season and looked good in the work he got nearly hitting 1,000 yards on the year.

They looked to strengthen the area by getting rid of Kadarius Toney who let the team down remarkably consistently last year and replacing him with Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who I feel will have a very big year if he heals up well from a horrible sounding shoulder injury which looks like it will rule him out of this opener, with 10 days rest and the Bengals on deck it makes sense to not risk him in week 1. Juju Smith-Schuster comes back in, Skyy Moore is apparently still on the roster and Mecole Hardman is back after doing the minimum for another ring last year. The big news in the passing game was drafting the quickest-ever draft prospect, Xavier Worthy in April, adding him to the most talented arm in the league seems like it makes sense to me (although after the John Ross Bengals experiment, I do worry for his long-term future). I think it will be Kelce, Rice, and Worthy in order of target and then everyone else mixing in.

The defense stayed together to a large extent with Chris Jones looking to prove his worth again after a big deal last off-season, although they did lose L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans which probably hurts the secondary a little.

Ravens

The Ravens at least won A playoff game last season beating the Texans before losing to the Chiefs in Baltimore, will they exact revenge or will it be two games in a row with losses to their conference rivals? The Ravens lost some important pieces over the summer in DC Mike MacDonald, Patrick Queen, Geno Stone and Jadeveon Clowney on the defense, but have shown they can deal with losing stars so should still be strong this year.

Lamar Jackson took the Ravens to the 1 seed with a 13-4 record before their propensity for post-season capitulation hit, although their inability to cover the most obvious person on the park in Travis Kelce was more a reason for the loss than anything else. Lamar had the highest passing yardage of his career with more targets in the passing game and added 820 and 5 TDs on the ground to show he’s probably the best dual-threat QB in the league. Can he do it against the best teams? I think the jury is still out on that one unfortunately but getting them to 1-0 here would help me shut up about it.

It’s all change in the run game for them with Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins out to be replaced by one man, probably still the best pure rusher in the league in Derrick Henry, who despite the tread on his tyres and his age should show this year that he’s still up there with the aid of a rushing QB, a good offensive line and a good defense. They don’t have a whole lot behind him to start the year though with Justice Hill the only other notable name as Keaton Mitchell (who lead the league in YPC last season) missing the first 4 games of the year.

The passing game looks likely to be Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers for the most part, both had good seasons last year with Flowers proving his value as a high pick for them finishing with 858 yards, about a 5th of the total thrown by Lamar. As always there’s some hype behind Rashod Bateman who has flatted to deceive on the whole, are we buying it this year? Probably not. They have Nelson Agholor who popped up randomly a few times and brought in Devontez Walker with a 4th round pick to help out in that position, but it could be TE2 Isaiah Likely who is the 3rd most targeted, he filled in well with Andrews injured and showed he could be a reliable target for them.

The defense is changed but should still be strong with Kyle Van Noy re-signing and Marlon Humphrey healthy coming into the year, the pickup of Roquan Smith before the trade deadline last season was a masterstroke as he looked one of the best linebackers in the league.

Verdict?

As always it’s tough to look past the Chiefs coming off long-rest and they would have won the opener last season had it not been for Drops McGee at WR for them. Their first two games of the year are the toughest they’ve got so it’s safe to say they’ll be focussed from the start and I don’t think they’ll slip up here.

I don’t think it will be a walkover at all, but something like 20-17 feels reasonable.

My money is already on Perine anytime at his odds (6/1 the best for him) and really it should be on Kelce after he tore apart this opponent in January last year with 11 for 116 and a TD, mostly before the half. His lines are set at 5.5 receptions and 55.5 yards, man that sounds low to me. Justice Hill o8.5 rec yards is a tasty one at Bet365 as well. If I’m high on Likely then I should like him o1.5 receptions, but that’s more an inkling than anything solid so I’ll leave that one out for this game. If you want anything on the new guy then I prefer Xavier Worthy o20.5 longest reception than 45.5 for his total on the game.

7/2 on Skybet for Kelce and Henry both to score seems fair, it’s at 5/2 on PaddyPower for the same bet. I think Henry is going to have a huge year in a good team. Both to score a FG in each half at 5/1? Seems fine with two of the best kickers in the league on show.

For the record I’ve back Perine anytime on PaddyPower (5/1 when I placed, now 6/1), the Henry and Kelce boost on Skybet and I’ll probably do a small double with Justice Hill rec. yards and something else before the game starts.

Good Luck if you’re betting on it, enjoy the game and the beginning of a new season if you’re not!

AND AS IF THIS WASN’T ENOUGH…

There’s a bloody Friday night game as well with the Eagles and Packers duking it out in the first regular season game in Brazil! It might be a 1am kick off for us in the UK, but not having to get up quite so early on Saturday as Friday should make this one far more watchable.

Spoiler. I quite like both teams this season so I’ll have to have a deeper dive into some thoughts on this one, hopefully get a preview out on here tomorrow evening, otherwise I’ll get a post out on X with some bets I’ll be on!