We made it through the summer and are now just hours away from the first 7 hours of commercial-free football of the year, I hope you’ve all got things in order with your spouses! Personally I’m off to Birmingham for the evening for all-you-can-eat wings and a meet up with the Full10Yards guys, which should distract me from the horrible mess that the Bengals have made of things in the last few months.
There’s been some great games already as the Chiefs beat the Ravens thanks to Likely’s boots being a size too big at the end of the game (although the miss from Lamar a few seconds earlier was hideous and would have sorted things out) and the Eagles overcame the Packers in Brazil although the biggest news out of that one was Jordan Love narrowly escaping a season ending injury, latest reports seem to be an MCL sprain which should be a 2-4 week injury for him. As an aging man myself I can tell you that an MCL sprain isn’t too bad and he should be able to get through it soon enough, although I did mine just existing rather than having a 300lb man roll on it.
Go easy on certain markets in Week 1 – The Spreads are the sharpest they’ll be all season and the totals aren’t usually too far away, although you should be able to find some value in the prop markets if you’ve been paying attention to reports from camp over the summer.
Right, without further babbling we’re on to the previews.
Steelers +3.5 at Falcons; 42 (SKY)
The hype on the Falcons is real and SkySports are buying into it, it must be something for them to pass up the Jags and Dolphins (although the Fins are on TNF this week against the Bills) so they obviously think this will be interesting. The line is up just half a point from Thursday with Wilson expected out and Fields in.
It should be a new look Falcons team with a new head coach in there who, with him coming from the Rams, should know how to use star running back Bijan Robinson a little better than he was utilised under previous management, and it’s that change which has moved the Falcons up a lot of peoples boards this season. They have a talented offense with Kirk Cousins a big upgrade at QB, Bijan and Tyler Allgeier at RB behind a good offensive line and Drake London and Kyle Pitts headlining the pass-catching group. They also look a hell of a lot better than in recent years on defense and should be able to stymie most teams this season.
The Steelers may actually have the best QB play they’ve had for half a decade with Wilson or Fields in there although neither are expected to be league-leading they might actually be able to find targets a little more regularly. It looks like Fields starting which adds more rushing ability to them and he is capable of targeting his favourite guy 10 times a game, which is lucky as they only have one viable target on offense anyway with George Pickens, a talented guy with a shit attitude. I do like him to do well this season. Behind him Pat Friermuth just signed a new contract but there’s nothing else. Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin the next men up. They will be run and defense heavy as they have been in recent years and it’s got them to 9 wins each and every year so why change it. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are a good 1-2 and it looks like Warren is fine after a muscle injury in pre-season.
I’m expecting a run-heavy game and with a 42 total it looks like the bookies are as well. It’s a good test to see whether the credentials of the Falcons are legit or not. I won’t be taking anything on the spread or total here. I don’t mind a random shot on TE2 Mycole Pruitt for the Steelers at big odds (18/1 WillHill). I think it will be a huge year for Drake London, his line is 60.5, just a bit high for me in week 1 but he should be close to it.
Cardinals +6.5 at Bills; 46.5
A tough start from a betting standpoint. I’d probably take the Cardinals if it was over the 7, but a dome team going outside in Week 1 isn’t for me here.
The Cardinals should have a WR1 to replace Nuk Hopkins at last with rookie Marv Harrison Jnr. coming in, it’s been a quiet camp from him but you’d expect he’ll take a lot of the targets that went to Trey McBride last season. Like with London, he may well top his 65.5 but I’m not going on that in Week 1 or the 51 for McBride. I do like James Conner again this year, he finished the season very strong and 9/5 (PP/Betfair) is a good price for him to score here. Greg freaking Dortch… I’m very tempted to take him o25.5 yards, I think he’ll do quite well this year…again, a watching brief for me though.
I’m not high on the Bills this year, I don’t think their defense is very good and while they’ve got a good QB they don’t have a huge amount of targets for him. I think it will be 2 TE sets a lot with Knox and Kincaid, more running with James Cook and less for Keon Coleman than Diggs would have got. I do like Shakir and Samuel but they’re slot receivers, so maybe they’ll be getting rid of the ball quicker in the most part. Samuel would be my pick, just because of the low 28.5 line for him. I do like Knox at 4/1 anytime.
Nothing on Spread, I don’t mind overs on the total. James Conner anytime – 9/5, Dawson Knox – 9/2 . Damn it, I’m going BetBuilder on this game (Free £2 at PaddyPower) – Conner and Knox to score, Dortch and Samuel over yards – 48.23/1 (at 943am)
Titans +4 at Bears; 44.5
The Bears are very highly thought of this season with Caleb Williams coming in at QB with Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift in over free agency and they should be fine, but I don’t personally trust rookie QBs, he looked good on the move but missed a LOT of easy throws in pre-season, so is this a chance for an upset?
I do like Williams to be able to pepper DJ Moore with targets, he will still be the 1 in the offense and Allen should offer reliability in the slot for them and Rome Odunze looks like a good selection giving them a very nice trio of targets as well as Cole Kmet and experienced Gerald Everett at TE, they’ve done a good job of helping their new QB. Swift has the money to lead the backfield but Herbert and Johnson are both good enough as well so I’m avoiding everything there.
The Titans have had a big change too with Vrabel and Henry leaving. They now don’t have an RB1 with Pollard and Spears both 2’s in my eyes, which signals a big shift in approach for them. They brought in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to bolster the pass-catching group and should have Deandre Hopkins good to go, but that whole area is a mess to me especially with Will Levis chucking the ball, he’s not exactly shown accuracy in his career so far.
I’ve got nothing on this one. I do think there could be an upset but I think that’s more my aversion to rookie’s than too much else, I don’t think the Titans will be very good but I’m not as high on the Bears as most seem to be.
Patriots +8 at Bengals; 41
The Pats could be the worst team in the league, imagine hearing 5 years ago that the Lions are at the top of betting charts and the Patriots dead last, the joys of the NFL. While the Bengals have made a complete and utter hash on the contract situation with their star WRs, Higgins and Chase both coming up with excuses to possibly not play in this one. It might not change things but with the Chiefs on deck next week they’ll have to hope things get sorted out. Just pay Chase, it will look cheap this time next year. Idiots.
The Pats have Jacoby Brissett starting, he’s fine. They have no real targets in the passing game, Demario Douglas has the highest line for them at just 35.5 yards. Ja’Lynn Polk was their draft pick this year at WR and KJ Osborn comes in from the Vikings, I don’t mind him, if I was risking a prop it would be Osborn o24.5 rec. yards. I do like Rhamondre Stevenson though and his 14.5 rec. yards looks good as well as rushing and Rush and Rec lines for him. The Bengals gave up a horrible yards per carry last year and Steveo is a good back.
So the Bengals get Joe Burrow through an off-season for once and then come into the year with possibly Andrei Iosivas, Trenton Irwin and Charlie Jones at WR for them, what a fucking mess. I do like Yoshi but with no lines available due to the uncertainty there’s nothing to bet on here. I think it will be Moss/Brown 70/30ish split in the run game but there’s no been a whole lot of indication there either so I’ll avoid both unfortunately. I do like Mike Gesicki to have a big year at TE, he’s only 7/2 to score against his old team though, too low for me.
Bengals should still win, but I do like the +8 for the Patriots as there’s a strong chance there’s neither Chase or Higgins on the field. Under on the total due to that. Stevenson o50.5 rush yards seems a good line.
Texans -4 at Colts; 44.5
Another that could have been the early Sky game, and probably the one I’ll have an eye on in Felsons tonight. The Colts haven’t won on opening weekend for 11 years. Absurd. Line is up a point from Thursday night, money in on the Texans.
CJ Stroud took the league by storm last season, the follow up album is always a bit tougher but he looks like he’s got everything needed to be good again behind a very solid offensive line and the Texans are going all-in on that rookie contract upgrading their RB and WR rooms with Mixon and Diggs coming in over the summer. Personally I think Nico Collins is still the WR1 there with Diggs close behind and Tank Dell high up as well, it’s more 1a, 1b, 2a than 1/2/3 in my eyes here. Lots of pace and they should all be able to get open 10-20 yards downfield as they did constantly last season, they’re going to be fun. Their defense looks tidy as well, should be a good year for the Texans once more.
The Colts have Anthony Richardson back at QB after red-shirting him after 4 rushing TDs in a row to start last season. Will have be as cavalier in the run game this year? Probably, and they’ve got Jonathon Taylor to start the season as well, I think he may lead the league this year, I’m crazy-high on him and I don’t mind o12.5 receiving yards for him as short passes will be easier for Richardson than bombs to Michael Pittman Jnr who leads the WR corps. They brought in Adonai Mitchell who looks like he’ll be the 2 with Pierce dropping down to 3.
I think this will be a close one, and I’m a little surprised it’s gone to the Texans, I’d probably take the Colts getting 4 at home although a win may be out of their reach given history. There’s a 3/1 at BoyleSports for Tank Dell, seems high, just over 2/1 everywhere else. I was all ready to start the year as I mean to go on with a bet on Big Mo Alie-Cox, but 17/2 isn’t the double-digits I was expecting for my boy.
Jaguars +3.5 at Dolphins; 49
A shoot-out in Florida to start the season? Go on then. The Dolphins always seem to have a front-loaded home schedule to take advantage of the heat and humidity in Miami early on but another Floridian team coming in should be affected too much by it.
The Jags lost Calvin Ridley over the summer and brought in Gabe Davis alongside Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas who was a high draft pick for them, so it looks like it may be a lot of deep shots on this offense. Travis Etienne is a solid RB and while I don’t think Trevor Lawrence is ever going to take them to a Super Bowl, he’s fine at QB. The defense isn’t great though so they may be in a lot of shootouts this season.
Miami can’t be teams with winning records but they love to run up the score on poorer teams and that may be the case here. Devon Achane is expected to be RB1 with a year under his belt but I don’t think Raheem Mostert is going anywhere especially at the goal-line and Jaylen Wright may get some touches as well as they like to rotate their speedy yet fragile backs. The offense is based on pace with Hill and Waddle in the passing game and they brought in Jonnu Smith to get themselves a better option at TE. I’m not a huge Tua fan but he runs this offense well and should have another good statistical year.
I like the Dolphins to win comfortably but the OVER would be my bet on the main markets. I do like Raheem Mostert anytime at evens or above everywhere.
Panthers +4 at Saints; 41.5
Bottom-dwellers in the NFC South take each other on as the season opens at the venue of this years Super Bowl. There’s more chance of me reaching the top shelf in the supermarket than either of these teams getting anywhere near it this season though.
I think Bryce Young is very poor but at least they’ve given him Diontae Johnson this year as a reliable target in the passing game, he relegates Adam Thielen and we will wait and see whether Xavier Legette is any good, although a line of 15.5 seems disrespectful. They’re without 2 TEs so Ja’Tavion Sanders could be thrust into action, his 18.5 yards looks tempting, and my god, Miles Sanders at 2.5… I don’t like the Panthers but there’s some tempting lines out there! Chuba Hubbard will lead the backfield but I’ve got to think Sanders will get a catch att least.
The Saints are treading water with Derek Carr at QB, Alvin Kamara will still be good and Chris Olave will get his. I do liken Rashid Shaheed this year as their WR2 and Juwan Johnson is a decent pass-catching TE and obviously they’ll mix in Taysom Hill at random points through the game, but the team just seems stuck in mud at times and their defense isn’t anywhere near what it used to be.
Not one that many will be watching, Saints should cover though.
Vikings -1.5 at Giants; 41
Sam Darnold vs Daniel Jones, what a way to start the year! Two teams expected to have high picks come next years draft.
It was probably going to be Darnold anyway, but the JJ McCarthy injury puts him in for most of the season, he’s a fine backup and has a chance to redeem himself after being too highly drafted all those years ago. They have a good WR duo with Justin Jefferson probably the best in the league and Jordan Addison playing tonight and have a very good back with Aaron Jones coming in from the Packers with Ty Chandler backing him up, but I can’t back any lines on anyone here, unknown of Darnold ruins the pass-catchers and I think Chandler gets more than expected on the ground.
I don’t think Daniel Jones is as bad as people make out, he’s by no means great but he’s fine and he’s mobile so he’s always entertaining at least. He has Devin Singletary as his RB1 this year, which isn’t ideal but he does have a WR1 at least with Malik Nabers coming in, I’d expect 7-10 targets for him tonight. I do love myself a bit of Darius Slayton (not Slay, and definitely not in Brazil) a deep target for them (his 22.5 line is tempting), and Wan’Dale Robinson is good when healthy as well. Theo Johnson comes in as a rookie TE with promise.
I don’t mind the Giants here as home underdogs. I will probably have Slayton yards in an acca somewhere.
Raiders +3 at Chargers; 40
Two teams in transition here and a definite “watch only” for me in this one.
The Raiders have gone with Gardner Minshew over Aiden O’Connell, meh. He’ll be fun but I don’t think it’s the way to win games in the NFL in 2024. He’s got ole reliable in Devante Adams who will obviously lead them in the passing game with Jakobi Meyers solid as the WR2 there, and they brought in Brock Bowers to go alongside Michael Mayer in the TE room, both good pass-catching options. I don’t mind the overs on Tre Tucker, he won’t catch many per game but they usually go for a lot when he does. Zamir White should get loaded up at RB as well, expect 20+ touches a game for him.
Talking of run games, the Chargers brought in John Harbaugh and changed things up to go run-heavy with Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins both in from the Ravens and Kimani Vidal offering an option from the draft. They have (apparently) a good QB in Justin Herbert who is infallible in the eyes of the press but don’t have a great receiving group which is now led by Josh Palmer with Quentin Johnston looking to overcome a terrible rookie year and this years rookie Ladd McConkey filling the vacated Keenan Allen role. I love Hayden Hurst from his time at the Bengals so I’m hoping (not expecting) he will have a good year at TE alongside Will Dissly.
I have no idea which way this is going, it’s a low total as we expect it to be run-heavy on both sides but the Raiders randomly scored 63 last season against this team so who knows.
Broncos +6 at Seahawks; 42
Bo Nix vs. Geno Smith, safe to say this wasn’t going to make the UK broadcast.
I think the Broncos will be terrible, I don’t particularly rate Sean Payton as a couch and Nix doesn’t seem like he’ll be all that good either. You’d expect Javonte Williams to lead the RB room but they don’t seem to like him and they’ve got Jaleel Mclaughlin and rookie Audric Estime behind him now. Bold shout, Estime will be the 1 at some point in this season. Courtland Sutton is the WR1 with Troy Franklin hoping his college connection with Nix will help his numbers this year, Mavin Mims at 14.5 yards is a teasing line.
I don’t think Geno Smith is great, but he’s reliable and has a good group around him led by DK Metcalf, it looks like Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be the 2 with Tyler Lockett one of the better 3’s in the league and they’re good on the deck with Kenneth Walker backed up by Zach Charbonnet. They should be better on defense with Mike Macdonald coming in at HC, and Noah Fant probably won’t be a bad TE for them.
Seahawks should win and cover as I don’t think the Broncos will be good but I just can’t find any enthusiasm for Seattle.
Cowboys +2.5 at Browns; 41 (SKY)
The evening Sky game sees two playoff disappointments face each other as the Cowboys visit Cleveland.
The Cowboys took their time but at least got a contract sorted for CeeDee Lamb in the end, which is lucky as they have practically nothing behind him in the WR corps. Lamb may well lead the league in yards this year with Dak giving him a ton of targets each game. Brandin Cooks may hit 700 yards this year, and Jalen Tolbert should do something each game. It’s the TE’s who are most interesting though, Jake Ferguson looked good last year and they like Luke Schoonmaker as well in that position, especially in the redzone, so could be worth a shot on one of them two to score. They are solid defensively and will probably need that areas to help a lot this year. Oh yeah, Zeke is back, he may get more touches but it seems a lot think Dowdle will lead the team in yards this season.
The Browns are horribly-“meh” – I doubt Watson will be above-average again in his career, they’re coming in with Jerome Ford leading the line behind a beaten up OL in this one, and while I do think Amari Cooper is in for a good year I’m not convinced with the rest of the passing game although Jerry Jeudy could be a good addition there and David Njoku should be good although he had a lot of his big games last year with Joe Flacco rather than Deshaun Watson at QB. They are one of the best defenses in the league and I do love watching Myles Garrett destroy everyone he faces.
I don’t know. Browns at home so I’d take them but it could be a scrappy start on both sides, lean to under on the total. Rico Dowdle o33.5 rush yards
Commanders +3.5 at Buccs; 42.5
Stinky, but maybe fun. I don’t think this will be filled with accurate, A+ play but it could be a high-scoring one.
The commies brought in Jayden Daniels at QB who will likely be high in the QB rushing yards which adds some excitement to them already and Austin Ekeler adds some experience at RB for them behind Brian Robinson who I think is entrenched as their 1. They let Jahan Dotson leave so behind Terry McLaurin at WR it’s Dyami Brown season? Hardly a good situation. Maybe it will be Zach Ertz and Ben Sinnott at TE for them who get a lot more in the passing game? 19/2 is close enough to double-digits for me to have a sniff on Sinnott anytime
Baker Mayfield was fine last year but he’s very up-and-down and they’ve got a good pass-catching group with Evans maybe in his final year and Chris Godwin in there supported by Cade Otton who’s a decent TE. Expect another season with a heavy workload for Rashaad White at RB for them, he caught a lot of dump offs last season and looked good on the ground as well, 13/10 o3.5 receptions is nice.
Not one I’ll be betting but Buccs should win and cover, lean over on the total. Sinnott anytime 19/2 BetMGM, 9/1 WillHill and Rachaad White o3.5 receptions 13/10 (Bet365)
Rams +3.5 at Lions; 52.5 (SNF)
A cracker to end the night with the Stafford/Goff bowl. The Lions came out on top last time and may well again, but I rate both these teams highly so it should be a heck of a game. It’s the highest total of the weekend but I’m still thinking overs.
The Rams lost Aaron Donald who retired over the summer so I think their defense could take a big step back and they’ll struggle to get pressure tonight especially against the best OL in the league so stopping the Lions scoring may be tough, but their offense should be very good and Stafford knows this stadium better than anyone. Puka Nacua set rookie records last season but I think we’ll be back to Kupp being the main man, very much a 1a/1b situation for them which is a nice spot to be in with Tutu Atwell popping up for 2 for 60odd in games as well. Tyler Higbee misses the start of the season at TE, so Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen who looked fine last year for them. The run game is the highlight of this team and Kyren Williams fits perfectly there, they brought in Blake Corum to give him some rest and strengthen that area. I’ll also chuck in a mention for Jordan Whittingham at WR who’s been highly praised in camp.
Give Goff a dome and time with the ball in his hand and he’ll do well, the Lions play 15 games inside this season. They’ll be fine. He’s a good QB who gets the job done well with Amon-Ra St. Brown getting 7+ receptions each game and Sam LaPorta looking to follow-up an excellent rookie year at TE. There’s chat around Jameson Williams again but he’ll probably still be a downfield hit-or-miss guy, this could be a good game for a hit. Montgomery and Gibbs are the best RB duo in the league and Gibbs seems like he’s over a hamstring tweak in training camp to play in this one, the lightning to Monty’s thunder. Defensively I don’t think they’re quite there but Aidan Hutchinson continues to get better up front for them.
I like the Rams to pull off the shock and win this one, but I think I like the overs more.
Football. It hath returned.
TouchdownTips 
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