Week 2; Picking out the truth

A pretty successful weekend on the betting front for the bolded bets on here and some little hints towards some other winners as well, the less said about the actual football, the better.

Mycole Pruitt was a long-shot, but had a couple of targets so I don’t mind having a shot at 18/1 anytime for him, glad I avoided Drake London as Kirk Cousins didn’t look ready for the game. James Conner scored, Dawson Knox didn’t, Dortch got his yards, C Sam didn’t. Rhamondre Stevenson flew over his yards as the Pats pulled off the biggest shock of the weekend as 8 point underdogs. The Dolphins game didn’t go to plan, Mostert was injured before half time and they’ve since lost to the Bills and lost their QB for probably quite a while. Rico Dowdle cost me a lot of money by not hitting his rushing yards, I’m not sure how they didn’t use him more in a game they were always comfortable in. Rachaad White is probably going to be my bet of the week again, he easily hit 3.5 receptions for the Buccs last week.

On to week 2. It usually pays to take 0-1 team against the spread in Week 2 especially if they’re facing an 1-0 side for obvious motivation reasons. Week 2 0-1 underdogs cover the spread around 2/3 of the time as results get over-reacted upon.

As I said earlier, the Dolphins faced a team with a winning record and did what they always do. They may now have no QB for the rest of the season though as Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion and did the fencing motion with his hand again which looked hideous. I really hope he considers his future in the league as no-one wants to see that happening again. Bills go to 2-0.

49ers -4.5 @ Vikings; 45.5 (Sky)

The big news for the 49ers this week is that Christian McCaffrey will be missing at least the next month as he takes a trip to IR for his Achilles tendonitis, is this the start of him getting old? Could this be the downfall of the 49ers offense?! Probably not. They coped fine with Jordan Mason handling 28 carries last week for 147 yards and a TD against an apparently good Jets defense, more of the same here I’d imagine. Brandon Aiyuk had a rough off-season with contract talks and will look to improve on his output from last weekend but with Deebo and Kittle alongside him in the passing game they’ll still be able to move the ball, not to mention the outstanding Juaun Jennings who led the team in receiving yardage last weekend, I doubt that will be the case here but he will get softer coverage so it makes sense he’d get some play. Their defense is as good as ever and should be able to handle Justin Jefferson well.

Sam Darnold was one of the best QBs in the league last weekend although I think that was as much to do with playing the Giants as anything else, if he does it against this opposition then I’ll be forced to re-think my opinion on him. Aaron Jones had a solid start to his Viking career with 94 and a score and 60% or so of the touches on the ground with Ty Chandler taking 30-ish, probably about the right split for them in most games this year. Justin Jefferson of course got free quickly to find the endzone but they’re without Jordan Addison this week which hurts their very shallow receiving corps.

I can’t see anything other than an easy 49ers win here, they will know to stop Jones and Jefferson and that should be lights out for the Vikes. 49ers -4.5, maybe a nibble on Jordan Mason o17.5 rush attempts.

Raiders +8.5 @ Ravens; 41.5

The Raiders didn’t look good against an average Chargers team as they lost by a good margin last weekend, Minshew looked like a competent QB at least with rookie Brock Bowers his leading target, the talented Georgia recruit is one of the best prospects this year and it’s good to see him start with a heavy-target game. Devante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are a good duo and with Bowers could turn into a decent offense. Zahir White will hope for better but the game-flow probably won’t be helping him in this one.

The Ravens were a toenail away from a 2-point attempt to beat the Chiefs in the opener last week and coming off 10-days rest will be raring to go in this one. Derrick Henry should EAT tonight against a Raiders team who were killed by former-Ravens player JK Dobbins last weekend. The 87/100 (stupid decimal odds) for Henry to score at Ladbrokes isn’t actually that bad, I’m expecting at least two for him here. Lamar Jackson missed Rashod Bateman/Zay Flowers on an easy TD last weekend and Isiah Likely was the big star, but Mark Andrews was double-covered more than basically any TE in recent years allowing Likely the space for that huge game, I think that will come back to the norm a little here and Andrews will get more.

Ravens win and do it easily, however I won’t be taking them on this spread – Derrick Henry 87/100 (CoraLadbrokes) – check out some 2+ TD prices and lock him in your DK line-ups despite the cost!

Browns +3 @ Jaguars; 41.5

Is there any other player people want to fail as much as Deshaun Watson? Even the Browns seem to want that to happen as reports surfaced of more discretion by him this week (if they wanted that hushed I’m sure they could have done it) as he was terrible last weekend against an admittedly good Cowboys defense. He will have to bounce back here but I’m not sure he’s capable of it, he’s not been good for a few years now and it’s tougher without David Njoku at TE for them. Jerry Jeudy found the endzone last week, Amari Cooper didn’t do a lot with terrible service to him. They do welcome back a couple of OL though and I’d except them to highlight the run-game more so it could be a Jerome Ford game here.

The Jags jumped out to a big lead against the Dolphins last week before Trevor Lawrence remembered he’s not actually that good and they eventually dropped to a loss, but rookie Brian Thomas looked explosive against Jalen Ramsey and will try to continue that here. Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk both caught long passes and that’s how the Jags look like they want to work, but that will be tougher this week against one of the best pass-rushes in the league. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby actually had equal carries, probably worth keeping an eye on that split with Etienne the better back.

I don’t like the Browns, I don’t think the Jags are particularly good, both coming off a loss I’m staying away from everything on this one. Lean to the Browns getting the field goal.

Jets -4 @ Titans; 41

Do I want Aaron Rodgers to fail as much as Watson? Probably not that much, but I really don’t like him. 13/21 a TD and an INT in his first game in a year against a very good defense isn’t great but it’s not bad either and he should have an easier task here although the Titans have revamped their secondary and it looked fine last weekend. Breece Hall is going to be a star this year, 21 touches for him as he took steps in the passing game as well. Garrett Wilson will have better games and I’d expect Mike Williams to do something after his return from injury but Rodgers is loyal to his bestest buds and that looks like it could still be Allen Lazard who had 2 scores last weekend. I don’t expect that to continue but it has put me off anyone else in the Jets passing game.

Will Levis…well, things will happen with him at QB, whether they’re good or not is much tougher to predict. 1 TD, 2 INTs as they somehow gave away a big lead to a team finding their way on offense. Tony Pollard broke away for a long score as he took most of the work on the ground but the passing game is impossible to call at this moment in time, Deandre Hopkins played but did nothing, Calvin Ridley caught two, Tyler Boyd did a little as well, it was a messy game they maybe should have won, but it’s work in progress for the Titans this year. It looks like Spears is the pass-catching back so I’ll look that way.

Have to lean to the Jets covering this one, I wanted to take Breece Hall receptions, but I’m not going near 4.5 in a game they should be in control of. Tyjae Spears o2.5 receptions – 5/6

Chargers -5 @ Panthers; 39

The Chargers did as expected and ran all over the Raiders last week with Dobbins and Edwards splitting carries evenly, JK Dobbins dominating the yardage with a couple of big gainers although his top-end speed bottomed out quickly when he got into space, after a few years of injuries that wasn’t too surprising. Ladd McConkey found the endzone on debut with a nifty move inside a couple of defenders as he led the team in targets, the passing attack will improve but is a little disjointed for now.

Are the Panthers somehow still the worst team in the league? You better fucking believe it. They were destroyed by a divisional rival last week and things don’t seem to be getting any better for an undersized QB with no real help around him. Diontae Johnson should be better going forward and Xavier Legette looks like he could be talented as well but it’s going to be tough going for the Panthers all year.

Can I take a Chargers team that constantly disappoint as favourites on the road as 5 point faves? No, I can’t, but they should cover. It should be a Gus Edwards week, he and Dobbins are short at around 6/5 so I’ll be avoiding them as well but both should be good DFS plays.

Seahawks -3.5 @ Patriots; 38.5

This must be the easiest start a head coach has had to his career? A dead Broncos team and now the Patriots coming off a big upset win? Good for Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks. Things may be a little more difficult this week for them with Kenneth Walker possibly missing the game with injruy, that would mean a lot more work for Zach Charbonnet who’s not really had a chance to shine as the main RB yet in his career but found the endzone on a reception last weekend, although Walker does say he’s fine… I believe that Lockett is the WR3 in this offense now behind Metcalf and Smith-Njigba but the veteran led the team in receptions and yards last week, the benefit of having 3 very good targets. I expect more from Noah Fant going forward but there are options around the team making it tough to pick a bet.

The Patriots shocked most people outside of Bengals fans with their win last week, Rhamondre Stevenson looked good against a poor rush defense and despite being under pressure a lot Jacoby Brissett kept calm and moved the ball well enough, mainly to the TE’s in short yardage. They won’t have it as easy on the ground this week and that will put pressure on a poor passing group. I think if the Pats can get a run game going they’ll be OK this year, if not they’ll get destroyed and that’s where I think this is going.

Seahawks to win and cover the spread. I’ve got nothing on props, can’t predict the Seahawks WRs and with Walker questionable there’s not much on rushing yards.

Saints +6 @ Cowboys; 46.5

The Saints destroyed the Panthers last weekend with Derek Carr looking like his 2020-self with 19/23 for 200 and 3 TDs and Alvin Kamara finding the endzone on the ground. It was about as good a start as they could have hoped for against the hapless Panthers. This week though, oh boy, the season really starts for them. The lack of Chris Olave last week may be a worry for fantasy players but it was a unique gamescript where they could spread the ball around, he should get some normality this weekend. Rashid Shaheed is always capable of taking a deep one to the house and did so last week, Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson are a good couple of TEs in the redzone and Taysom Hill still exists as well. Kamara might not be the player he once was but he’s still a good rusher and may well lead them in receptions again in this one.

The Cowboys defense blew up everything the Browns tried to do last weekend and while they probably won’t have it as good this week they should still get pressure on Carr and he doesn’t do well with that. The offense was fine, it didn’t need to do too much, Dowdle and Zeke shared the carries and Lamb obviously led them in receptions and yards as their only real target. Jake Ferguson will miss this one giving chance to Luke Schoonmaker at TE, but it could be the likes of Jalen Tolbert who get the possible TD bump from Ferguson missing out.

This will be my watch of the early window, I do expect the Cowboys to win, especially with their insane home record but I’m not expecting a blowout here. I think both teams are good enough but landed easy starts last week and it begins properly here for them. Lean to the Saints covering, and over on the total. No bet from me here.

Giants +1.5 @ Commanders; 43.5

So, I may have been wrong on Daniel Jones being an OK quarterback… He was terrible last week and his own fans waited around after the game to give him shit, safe to say he should be locked in this week, whether that means anything or not is a different thing. Unsurprisingly with Devin Singletary as the lead back they didn’t get much going on the ground, he also ceded work at the goal-line which killed my ridiculous 11/2 anytime on him. Wan’dale Robinson, Darius Slayton and rookie Malik Nabers should be a good trio if they get the service but it’s tough with Jones at QB. Nabers looked up to his billing in what little he did get and led the team in yards.

The Commanders future looks a little brighter thanks to the rushing ability of Jayden Daniels at QB and 17 of 24 in the passing game isn’t bad either, they just came up against a well-coached Buccs side in week 1. Targets were spread around the team with the RBs actually leading in yardage in the recieving game, it will be interesting to see if that carries on, dump offs to them and the TE are usually the best way to get a rookie QB into the game and that looks to have been the case.

The Commies definitely looked the better team in week one, but I’m not going to be taking them to continue that here. I’ll take 13/10 on Jayden Daniels (Ladbrokes) adding to his 2 TDs from last weekend. 9/2 on Zach Ertz is decent enough too at PP

Buccaneers +7.5 @ Lions; 51.5

Or do I want to watch this one?! Some good games on the slate this weekend with my team playing in the later slot. The Buccs looked very good last weekend with all their stars turning up and Baker Mayfield having one of his better games with 4 passing TDs, stringing together good games has always been his issue but things looked good last week. Mike Evans caught a couple, Chris Godwin got one and rookie Jalen McMillan found the endzone as well, a good sign for all things offense for the Buccs. Rachaad White didn’t get a lot going on the ground but as usual caught a lot of dump offs finishing with 75 from 6 receptions, that could even increase this week in a probable negative gamescript for them.

The Lions just about took care of business with an overtime win against the Rams as David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs both got on the scoresheet on the ground and that’s where they begin really with those two running behind probably the best offensive line in the league. Jared Goff does well inside and with time and should have both again, last week it was Jameson Williams who benefitted with some big players and a TD from his 121 yards but you’d expect it to get back towards Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta in the passing game for the most part.

Should be a very fun game and one I like the Underdogs with them getting the hook on the 7. Buccs +7.5 will be in my selections this week, should be high-scoring too but is the highest total on the board. Rachaad White o3.5 receptions is probably my favourite bet of the week and if you can ladder his rec. yards beginning at his 23.5 you may be doing well this week.

Colts -2.5 @ Packers; 41

Another team I find fun to watch now that Anthony Richardson is healthy is the Colts. Everytime he’s started a game in his career he’s finished as a top 5 QB in fantasy and I doubt that will change here. He threw a couple of TDs, including the 3rd longest air yards in Next Gen Stats history to Alec Pierce who finished with a ridiculous 3 for 125 yards, averaging 41.7 per catch last weekend, and Richardson rushed one in as well. Adonai Mitchell was missed on a couple of deep shots so keep an eye on his lines as we go through the season, but it could be a worry for Michael Pittman in the shorter game as Richardson goes for broke.

The Packers will be without Jordan Love so it will be Malik Willis as QB for them, 67 pass attempts, 15 sacks, 4 fumbles from 32 carries… This may not be pretty for him and the Packers this weekend. It might be good news for Josh Jacobs though as they will surely try and load him up on the ground and give Willis as little as possible to do. Jayden Reed is questionable but should play, although Dontayvion Wicks at 11.5 is tempting to go over on, the whole passing game is a crap shoot with Willis at QB.

I like the Colts to cover this one. Colts defense – 17/2 (PaddyPower), Adonai Mitchell longest reception o16.5.

Rams +1 @ Cardinals; 48

This is the one spread of the week I can’t figure out. Sure the Rams are without Puka Nakua and that will hurt but they’ll just load up Cooper Kupp again (although I doubt it will be 21 targets this week) – The Rams are still the better team with the better coach who will have been figuring out what to do with his offense without his young star. I’m thinking 2 rushing TDs for Kyren Williams and a score for Kupp as well as a deep shot to Tutu Atwell, because they love throwing one or two of those in there. The Rams OL and defense aren’t great and could be found out but I don’t think it will be against the Cardinals.

The Cards to their credit did well for a half last week against the Bills, they love James Conner and he found the endzone again, but this week I think they’ll focus on getting Marvin Harrison more of the ball than his 1 for 4 yards from last week. Michael Wilson looks like a decent enough WR2 and Trey McBride looks like he’ll still be frequently targetted in the passing game, and as I said last week, I do like a bit of Greg Dortch despite having the nerdiest name ever, he’s probably a “Third” as well for some reason.

I like the Rams to win and cover, I’m surprised they’re underdogs. Lean over on the total as I don’t rate either defense very highly.

Steelers -2.5 @ Broncos; 36.5

The Steelers defense and Chris Boswell got the job done last week as their QB definitely couldn’t 6/6 including a 57-yarder for Boswell was enough to see them to an 18-10 win. As expected George Pickens was the only really option in the passing game, 6 for 85 and nearly topped a ton if it wasn’t for an OPI call. Harris had 20 carries on the ground, Fields took off a lot as well and against a poor Broncos team they may well get another win here.

In fairness to the Broncos, Bo Nix looked all right? Although 42 pass attempts probably isn’t the way they want things to go each week and an average of under 5 yards per catch isn’t going to win any games, but it was his first start, so we’ll see how it goes in the future. With them trailing for most of the game Jaleel McLaughlin led in carries but you’d expect they want Javonte Williams to, something to keep an eye on at least. The passing game is tough to call after a poor week, Courtland Sutton had 12 targets… caught 4. This is going to be a rough team to watch this year.

Steelers are the better team but their QB play is not good. Nothing on spread or total for me though. 10/3 for Pickens to score is too tempting to ignore, PaddyPower again. If you’ve got a Midnite account, whatever the fuck that is, they are top odds for most TD props, but I’m assuming most don’t so I’ve been ignoring them.

Bengals +5.5 @ Chiefs; 48 (Sky)

A re-match of the AFCCG from a couple of years ago with the Bengals looking to bounce back from a dreadful performance in week 1 against the reigning champs who won their opener.

My thoughts here as a Bengals fan is that they would have been planning more for this game than the opener as they came into the season and figuring how to beat a legitimate rival rather than the Pats, obviously that backfired but they didn’t lose much in division with just the Steelers winning. They just seem to know how to play well against the Chiefs and I think (hope) that’s the case here. They will be without Tee Higgins again this week which hurts them but Ja’Marr Chase should have overcome his “illness” and will have to be loaded up with targets tongiht, he’ll be happy to not be facing La’Jarius Sneed this year. They will need more from other aspects though, the run game looked average and Burrow didn’t look comfortable with his receivers at all last week. Saying all that, had Mike Gesicki completed a catch for a TD they probably would have won and there’d be no panic here. The defense always seems to scheme well for the Chiefs but isn’t filled with pace and that’s where the Chiefs thrive this time around with Worthy and Rice both speedy.

The Chiefs under-used Travis Kelce in the opener to the benefit of Rashee Rice who had 7 receptions, as he tends to do, and led the team in all facets of the passing game in the slot. He has a fair matchup there today although Mike Hilton is a good slot-corner on the other side. I’d expect Kelce to get a lot more use although the LB group for the Bengals is strong. It could be a Worthy game with his pace, but realistically I’d expect a LOT of carries for Isiah Pacheco on the ground who runs like the Miami PD are after him in most games and gets a very, very good matchup against a Bengals run defense which doesn’t seem to be able to stop anyone. Maybe Perine against his old team, 6/1 is a teasing price.

Expect the Chiefs to jump out to a lead then grind to a halt before scoring in the 4th to go ahead and remain there. The Bengals will be better this week and I think they’ll cover the spread, although that may just be hopeful thinking. 2-0 vs. 0-2 by Monday morning. Isiah Pacheco o67.5 rush yards.

Bears +6.5 @ Texans; 45.5

Sunday Night Football sees this years OROY favourite take on the winner from last year as it’s Caleb Williams v CJ Stroud in Houston.

From what little i’ve seen of Williams I don’t rate him at all, his can do well out of structure but he’s been less than accurate so far in pre-season and last week, 14 of 29 for 93 yards, but at least he didn’t turn it over and that was enough for them to get the win. It’s worrying signs for DJ Moore, Allen and Odunze in the passing game without a good QB but he will surely improve as the season continues. D’Andre Swift led the run game with 10 carries and he should do going forward, although only one target in the passing game where Allen was the main man.

The Texans scraped a divisional win against a spunky Colts side and I think they’ll do it considerably more easily in this one. CJ Stroud was good, Diggs scored on debut and Nico Collins topped 100 yards though the air, not to mention the 30 carries for 159 and a TD for Joe Mixon in his first game for the team. All in all a good start for the stars on this offense now littered with them. I would expect similar in this game on offense and unlike last week I don’t expect the QB to give the ball away easily for the Bears to capitalise.

I like the Texans to win and cover this one with it under a TD, their defense will cause issues and their offense could be one of the most high-powered in the league. Nothing on props though.