Week 3; Do or die for some.

How many teams have made the playoffs after an 0-3 start? Well, since 1990 there have been 162 teams who have lost their first three games, only 4 of those have made the post season, 2.5%. That’s it. So all those teams sitting at 0-2 at the moment, most notably the Colts, Ravens and Bengals know that this week is pretty much it for them if they want to be playing meaningful football in January. An 0-2 starting team only statistically has an 11.5% chance of making the playoffs, but one more loss basically kills your season before it gets started.

After a good Week 1 I had an absolute nightmare with my bets last week, hopefully I’ll bounce back with more conservative looks this weekend.

I think some questions were answered last week, the Saints are a very good offense under Klint Kubiak, the Panthers are the worst team in the league but have realised that by benching Bryce Young this week and I still don’t think Caleb Williams is very good, although I’m willing to give him a little more time on that one.

Thursday night saw the Jets comfortably beat the Patriots to take themselves to 2-1 and it looks like Aaron Rodgers is settling back into things in the league as he hit 77% of his passes with a couple of TDs in there to his buddy Allen Lazard and stud Garrett Wilson. Along with Breece Hall and the emergence of Braelon Allen in the run game the offense there could be something this year and support their very good defense a little more.

Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 at New Orleans Saints: 49.5 (Sky)

The early sky game sees the 1-1 Eagles taking on the 2-0 juggernaut Saints in NOLA in what should be a very fun game for the neutrals to watch.

The Eagles are without AJ Brown who misses his second week in a row which definitely hurts their offense but with Saquon Barkley in the backfield they will still be able to move the ball, he dropped a pass which would have essentially sealed the game last weekend and had a TD pulled back for being millimetres short of the line, he had 26 touches and I’d expect a similar amount in this one. Devonta Smith is being paid like a 1 and he showed he could do that role with 76 and a TD from 7 receptions, I personally think the Saints defense is a drop down on the Falcons so I think they’ll be able to move the ball still. Brittain Covey was the unexpected name who showed up to take advantage of targets last week catching all 6 of the looks his way, will he do that again in this one?

The Saints hit 35 points in the first half last weekend as Alvin Kamara notched up 4 TDs in their rout of the Cowboys and their defense held off the charge only allowing 19 in a complete performance by the team. Derek Carr is suddenly playing at MVP levels again, Kamara looks like he’s 7 years younger and Rashid Shaheed is the best deep threat in the league, everything is looking great for the Saints with a decent offensive coordinator. I don’t really see any reason why they won’t keep scoring this week either as the Eagles defense looked like a sieve in the 4th quarter last weekend allowing the Falcons to snatch a win from their Monday night matchup.

I like the Over in this one, I don’t think the Eagles will be able to keep the Saints from scoring and I think they’re offense is better than the Cowboys. 30-20 or around there will be fine. I guess it has to be the Saints on the spread but I’m not betting that. Barkley o3.5 receptions – 7/5 (Bet365)

New York Giants +6.5 at Cleveland Browns: 38.5

Daniel Jones threw some TDs TO HIS OWN TEAM for once last week against the Commanders and no interceptions but they still fell to 0-2. It looks like they’ve got their tactics now, just throw it to Malik Nabers, don’t bother with anyone else, 18 targets last weekend for the rookie who finished 10-127 and a TD. They’ll do well to replicate that against a far better defense though, in fact they’ll do well to move the ball at all against Myles Garrett and co. Devin Singletary did well on the ground last weekend but there’s not a whole lot to talk about on the Giants side of the ball.

The Browns defense did the job against the Jags last week but the offense is still blunted. They don’t seem to know who’s their man in the run game, it was Ford in week 1, Foreman last week so that’s not helpful from a betting standpoint and Deshaun Watson doesn’t look like he’s any good any more, he can’t even create a good game for Amari Cooper. Jerry Jeudy has done well since coming in and without David Njoku you’d expect the WRs to get more of the ball as Jordan Akins just isn’t as explosive as his TE counterpart.

Not one for the neutrals but I’ve got to lean to the Browns and under on the total. I don’t see the Giants hitting more than 10 points. I was hoping for a Daniel Jones rush line in the teens, but it’s 28.5 so I’ll give it a miss.

Chicago Bears +1.5 at Indianapolis Colts: 43.5

I am firmly out on Caleb Williams, he looked poor in pre-season despite some highlight plays on the run and the season hasn’t started well for him with QBRs under 30 and a COMBINED 267 yards, ZERO TDs through two games. Their defense has kept them in games but their offense just isn’t working at the moment.

It means it’s impossible to pick anything on that side of the ball, D’Andre Swift is getting the main share in the backfield but not going much with it, DJ Moore is leading the targets as expected but struggling to get much going and it with Keenan Allen missing tonight they’ll need more from everyone else around.

The Colts have been let down all season by their wide receivers who have been dropping a lot of passes this season. They have a mobile QB with a huge arm so if they are able to connect they will probably be for big gains. Adonai Mitchell has been the main culprit but Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman have both been culpable as well. Pierce found the endzone again last week, I think it’s meant to be Mitchell getting those passes but while he’s converting them it may continue this way. Really they should be relying on Jonathon Taylor as one of the best RBs in the league and they went towards that in the second half last week, expect them to start that way this week.

I want to fade Caleb Williams before he either gets himself sorted out or the bookies realise it, so I’m taking the Colts -1.5 in this one and them to get off the 0. Anthony Richardson TD – 6/5

Houston Texans -1.5 at Minnesota Vikings: 46.5

Two of the more exciting teams in the league so far this season, one we expected with CJ Stroud and the Texans and one shock with Sam Darnold taking the Vikings to 2-0 with a win of the 49ers last week.

It looks like Nico Collins is firmly the 1 in Houston with over 100 yards and a TD in both games so far this season and with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell behind him the offense has run as we’d have expected. They are missing Joe Mixon and probably Dameon Pierce this week though so it should be a nice week for Cam Akers at running back with Dare Ogunbowale behind him.

The Vikings have looked surprisingly good with Darnold who threw probably the longest TD of the year last week a 97-yarder from his own endzone which Justin Jefferson took to the house. Jefferson has been fine with Darnold so far but consistency has always been his crutch, it remains to be seen if he can keep it up for multiple weeks in a row. Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler are splitting carries and behind Jefferson it’s looking like Jalen Nailor as the second target.

Should be a fun one, I’ve got to take the Texans winning and covering though. Tank Dell has had a few carries each week so far, his rushing line is 4.5. Tank Dell o4.5 rush yards.

Los Angeles Chargers +1.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers: 35

Two surprising 2-0 teams here as the Chargers beat the Panthers last week and the Steelers defense did it’s job again with a win over a dismal Denver team.

Justin Herbert is coming into this one with a high ankle sprain which will hamper his movement but as they are now the best running team in the league so far it might not matter too much. JK Dobbins leads the league in rushing yards with another ton last week, he and Gus split carries evenly but Dobbins is the more explosive. This is by far their biggest test of a young season though. Sophomore Quientin Johnston scored twice as the Chargers strolled to a win.

The Steelers scored a TD last week with Darnell Washington in the endzone from Justin Fields but they once again struggled to move the ball. Fields completed 13 passes for 117 yards and the run game averaged about 4.4 per carry, but it’s tough to judge them too much as they have faced such terrible teams so far. They have lost a lot of yards through penalties and George Pickens could have had some huge games so far if it wasn’t for that. He is the main man there with Friermuth behind him and little else in the passing game.

A 35 point total is horrible in week 3, and it’s dropped lower due to the Herbert injury news in the week. Surely it’s an over? I won’t be taking either side of it personally. I was looking to go under on JK Dobbins rush yards but it’s lined well at 56. I was hoping for it to be closer to 70. Obviously I want the Chargers to win, so I’ll lean that way.

Denver Broncos +6.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 41

Bo Nix when asked about the interception in the endzone last week ““Oh yeh, dropped back and threw it to the other team” – Clearly not enjoying questions after the games yet, but fun to hear the honesty. The Broncos lost again, the Bucs won against the Lions and they looked pretty good for long parts.

The Broncos haven’t run the ball well and are throwing far too much in games as they’ve been trailing, he’s not being set up very well at all by his “QB whisperer” coach. Nix is at least spreading the ball around the offense though with 5 players receiving at least 4 targets last week, led by Greg Dulcich. Tough to take anything on this offense at the moment though.

The Buccs ran through Chris Godwin last week with over 100 yards and a TD, will it be him or Mike Evans this week? Evans probably faces Pat Surtain so in theory Godwin will get more of the ball once again. Rachaad White will look to do better although he left and returned to the game last week with injury so it’s tough to blame him for that one.

Bucs win and cover, the Broncos aren’t a good team.

Green Bay Packers +2.5 at Tennessee Titans: 38

Malik Willis faces his former team as Jordon Love misses out once more. He beat the Colts last week, can he do it again to another AFC South team? The Titans haven’t been terrible but find themselves at 0-2 after a loss to the Jets last week.

Willis did fine, he ran the ball well and found his guys when needed, although he was only asked to throw 14 passes as their defense got the job done and Josh Jacobs had 32 carries for 151 yards on the ground. Maybe try and stop that this week. Wicks got the TD, Doubs led them in yards but as with a few games this week it’s tough to pick anything from them.

Will Levis hasn’t been bad on the whole, but has thrown crippling interceptions in both games so far. Pollard is leading on the ground and looking quite good with it and Ridley is looking quite good in the passing game. I can’t predict anything with them at the moment, but they have been in quite entertaining games at least.

I can’t take the Titans here, I can’t take Malik Willis. Lean over on the total.

Carolina Panthers +5 at Las Vegas Raiders: 40

The Panthers continue to be utterly terrible, luckily for them, they realise that and have dropped Bryce Young for Andy Dalton, the red rifle is back in the league. The Raiders killed a lot of survivor leagues with a 4th quarter comeback to beat the Ravens in Baltimore last week.

The Panthers have been putrid, but could they be slightly less bad with Dalton? Probably. It should mean good things for the likes of Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen who did well with Dalton last year. The run game is shit, the OL has actually been OK. It’s been horrible for them.

The Raiders haven’t been able to get the ball moving on the ground yet but this is the chance for Zamir White to get that fixed. The passing game has been fine with Adams and Bowers commanding a lot of the target share and Tre Tucker is always dangerous with big plays. Maxx Crosby killed the game for them last week and will look to do the same with his pass rushing this week.

It’s only 5 points with Dalton, I’d imagine it would have been 3 or 4 more with Young at QB. I’d still lean the Raiders but it’s a stay away game. Legette o17.5 rec. yards – He’s a deeper threat than Thielen or Johnson and should have better QB play here.

Miami Dolphins +4.5 at Seattle Seahawks: 42

Skylar Thompson at QB for the Dolphins? Yeah, I’m out. They are coming off extended rest though while the Seahawks are back home after an OT win against the Pats last weekend.

Tyreek Hill will still get his and Devon Achane has looked good on the ground for the Dolphins but it’s tough to call much else for them on offense with Thompson in at QB.

The Seahawks are likely without Kenneth Walker again so Zach Charbonnet gets another start, he scored again last week but wasn’t efficient with the ball. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 12 receptions, the most of his young career and DK Metcalf topped 100 on the night as well as they moved the ball well without putting up many point. Geno Smith has been fine.

Seahawks should win against a backup QB, definitely leaning that way on it. DK Metcalf vs. Jalen Ramsey should be fun as they’re both arrogant as hell, I’d expect DK to come out on top though.

Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals: 51.5

The highest total on the slate tonight as the 1-1 Lions visit the resurgent Cardinals who smashed the Rams last week.

Gibbs and Montgomery are the best 1-2 in the league on the ground and continued that last week, their pass-catchers didn’t drop a single target according to PFF with Amon-Ra St. Brown bouncing back with 11 for 119 from a huge 19 targets as they trailed early on. Jameson Williams caught his bomb shot for a 50-yarder and Aiden Hutchinson nearly stole them the game with 4.5 sacks.

The Cardinals talked about getting Marvin Harrison the ball and did it a lot early on with 130 yards and 2 TDs in the first quarter for him as they won against a battered Rams team last weekend. It allowed Kyler Murray an easy night in the end and you would expect the game-plan will be similar here with Harrison the main man on the offense and Trey McBride behind him at TE. James Conner had another big game with 122 and a TD on the ground, I do like him now he’s not at the Steelers.

Should be a fun high-scoring game, all 3 RBs are under evens now, so off limits to me really. Wouldn’t shock me at all if all found the endzone again this week. Lions are tough to take as road faves but I’m leaning that way still.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Dallas Cowboys: 48 (Sky)

Bal v Dal is definitely the right choice for the evening game as both come off soul-crushing defeats last week, the Ravens as they gave away a big lead and the Cowboys as they allowed the most 1st-half points at home in 30 years against the Saints.

Derrick Henry had one of his poor games but still ended with 84 yards at 4.7 per carry and a touchdown for the Ravens, he was on minus yardage for much of the first half before wearing down the opposing defense. Lamar Jackson was himself, he ran well, threw the ball fairly well until he needed to at the end of the game. Zay Flowers had 11 receptions in the slot, Andrews back to his spot as 2nd target and Rashod Bateman did a bit as well. Other than the defense not being anywhere near as good as it was last season it was a typical Ravens game really. I do like Justice Hill in the passing game this week though, he signed a contract extension this week after showing his worth in the early weeks of the season.

The Cowboys were blown away by the Saints in the first half and that was that last weekend. They had showed up well against the Browns in week 1 so the truth is probably somewhere in between. Micah Parsons is still very good. The offense is going to struggle a bit though as it’s Ceedee Lamb and not much else with Jake Ferguson out last week, it looks like he’ll be back for this one. I said Tolbert could benefit and he was the most targetted player last week, expect him to back around 4 targets this week. The run game is split between Dowdle and Zeke and neither seem to be able to move the ball too well so far.

The Ravens have to get the win here and I think that desperation will get it there for them. The Cowboys defeated twice in a row at home? Unheard of. Justice Hill o12.5 rec. yards

San Francisco 49ers -6.5 at Los Angeles Rams: 44

The 49ers fell to a lose against the Vikings while the Rams are 0-2 with half of their roster injured already as we come into week 3.

The 49ers are with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle this week as they join Christian McCaffrey on the sideline. It should mean more for Brandon Aiyuk and Juaun Jennings who has showed his reliability in both games so far this year. Maybe we get a Juszcyzk game this week? Jordan Mason will get all the carries on the ground once more and should score at least once here.

The Rams defense was dismal last week and their offense not much better. They’re without Cooper Kupp now along with Puka Nakua so I doubt it will be able to do a whole lot in this one. Expect more for Blake Corum as they will have to use him and Kyren Williams a lot to move the ball. Tyler Johnson could be the 1, Jordan Whittington was talked about over the summer and will be thrust into a role here and Tutu Atwell should get more as well. Demarcus Robinson is the veteran there and Stafford trusts him.

49ers win and cover. Tutu Atwell o20.5 rec. yards – I may do something stupid involving 2+ for Whittington, but obviously I won’t be advising anyone do that!

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons: 46.5

The Chiefs made it to 2-0 after beating the Bengals last week with a ticky-tacky PI call, while the Falcons launched a spectacular comeback against the Eagles to get their first win of the season.

It was a poor game for Mahomes as it tends to be against the Bengals but he usually then punishes someone else the week later and that may well happen this week against the Falcons, expect a big game for Rashee Rice. They could do with Travis Kelce getting back in the game at TE, and have found something good with Xavier Worthy’s pace which they obviously use well. The run game is going to be different though with Pacheco missing a long time with a fractured Fibula. Carson Steele will likely get the first chance with Samaje Perine behind him tonight, both run hard, and both are horrible prices for TDs.

The Falcons are correctly focusing on Bijan Robinson who has 40+ touches so far this season, but are still mixing in Tyler Allgeier who has shown he’s a good RB2 for them. The passing game still seems to be lacking Kyle Pitts who many of us expect to be far more involved, but Drake London looks like he’s forming a good connection with Cousins. Darnell Mooney looks good as the 2 and weirdly Ray Ray McCloud is getting quite a lot of looks as the Falcons find their way in the season.

Have to take the Chiefs now it’s just the 3 point spread. Obviously I want the Falcons to win, but if it’s close we know what’s going to happen at the end of the game. I quite like Allgeier and Perine to top their rushing lines (24.5 and 16.5 respectively) Perine o16.5 rush yards is the one I’ll probably be backing.

That’s it for the week, nothing expansive from me after a hideous week 2 for myself. As always the DraftKings contest is running – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/167309818 if you want to get involved there.