NFL Week 4; Check that injury news!

A better Week 3, especially on player props which were on fire last week on this post. Not so good for the team I support who now statistically have a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs as they’ve started 0-3 after a loss to the Commanders on Monday Night Football, and this week go on to face their former QB who’s now at the Panthers.

Not the best slate of games this weekend headlined with divisional clashes between the Vikings and Packers, and Saints and Falcons in the early slate. The Commanders and Cardinals should be a high-scoring fun one to keep an eye on in the late games but the highlight of the weekend is at 1am as the Bills take on the Ravens.

More injury news than seems usual for this time in the season, with players dropping in and out throughout the weekend so keep an eye on Rapoport and Schefter for news on players this, and every week, or if you’re on sleeper you can toggle updates on and off for players on your fantasy rosters

You can check out my and Liam Horsley’s thoughts on a few of the games at Youtube.com/Full10Yards in our betting previews on there and available on podcatchers each week.

DraftKings league is on again, as always – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/167707573 – I won last week thanks to the 49ers mega-stack, come beat me!

Vikings @ Packers -2.5; 43.5 (Sky)

The unbeaten Vikings take on their divisional rivals who should have Jordan Love back under center who come in at 2-1 after Malik Willis won both games he was forced to start for the cheeseheads.

What a start to the year for the Vikings, I can’t help but think things would have been a lot different had JJ McCarthy had started the season at QB as planned, but fair play to Sam Darnold he’s been very good so far with Justin Jefferson and Jalen Nailor scoring each week and Aaron Jones proving to still have it on the ground, he faces his former side in this one looking for revenge for them letting him go, although his comments this week suggests he’s happier than ever now in Minnesota. The Vikes defense has been the key with Brian Flores putting out one of the best units in the NFL over three weeks, they’ve slowed the 49ers and the Texans in the past fortnight. Very impressive from the team I thought would be finishing 3rd in division.

The Packers should welcome back Jordan Love after 2 weeks out with his MCL sprain and despite them winning without him it will be a boost for their offense which has relied heavily on the run game with Willis in charge, he was backed up by rookie Emmanuel Wilson who scored the first TD of his career last weekend. The passing game has been fine with multiple targets to aim for, I would expect Reed to be back to the favoured guy with Love back, but Watson, Wicks and Doubs have all shown their worth and will probably all get something, good for the Packers, tough for betting as you don’t really know where the ball is going to go. Packers defense has also been very good in recent weeks, although a pop warner team could probably pick off Will Levis at this point in time.

I have no idea which way this game is going which should make it a fun watch on Sky later. Historically it’s a balanced matchup, so that’s no help either. If I was forced to pick I’d say Packers at home and under on the total, but I’m staying WELL away from this one. Nothing that jumps out on props either.

Steelers @ Colts +1.5; 40

The Steelers are 3-0 atop the AFC North with their defense dominating, they’re the first time to have won their first 3 games conceding 10 or fewer points for over 50 years having despatched the Falcons, Broncos and Chargers so far. The Colts come into this one having beaten the Bears last weekend to take them to 1-2.

The Steelers offense is still sub-par and looks like having Justin Fields under center again but they’ve been doing what they need to do and essentially scored 3 TDs last week (Najee dropping at the 1 to ice the game) – They are without Jaylen Warren here but Najee is fine to go despite being seen in a sling after last week, maybe a little look at Cordarelle Patterson odds 19.5 rush, 9.5 rec yards for him, I like that receiving line. Calvin Austin took one to the house last week, his rec line is low if you fancy a shot on that.

The Colts won by constantly giving the ball back to Caleb Williams and the Bears last week, their offense was dreadful and I am finally fully off the Anthony Richardson train (so expect a good one from him here) he looked clueless last week and it took them a half before they realised the JT is a brilliant running back who should get the ball more. Taylor should score in this one, if the passing game does anything it will probably be through Alec Pierce down the field but I have zero faith in their OL giving Richardson enough time to launch one down there against TJ Watt.

Steelers win, go to 4-0. Under on the total which has somehow reached the 40s this week. C Patt o9.5 rec. yards (365/Skybet)

Broncos @ Jets -7.5; 39.5

The Broncos shocked me last week looking like they had Payton back there at QB and easily beating the Buccs, while the Jets strolled to a win on Thursday night against the Patriots.

Bo Nix got the first win of his career by taking what he was giving against the Buccs and kept the ball safe with no turnovers and even a nice rushing TD to top things off. Courtland Sutton and L’il Jordan Humphrey were the top targets as he averaged 6 yards per pass, Sutton has consistently been up there with the rest of the WRs mixing in. The run game is inefficient though, Tyler Badie leading them in carries and yards as Javonte Williams struggles to get things going, 15.5 for him over the 29.5 for Williams looks interesting.

The Jets look like they’re getting it together on offense to go with their very good defense. Aaron Rodgers played very well against the Pats last week finding Lazard for a score again and getting one to Garrett Wilson to seal the game. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen look a nice 1-2 in the run game and even Mike Williams got himself a couple of fantasy points. Not a whole lot to say about them really, they look all right and odds-on for 2nd in division and a wildcard spot.

I’m not taking either side, I think it could be a blowout for the Jets but I’m hoping not as you know, fuck Aaron Rodgers. 4/6 probably isn’t bad for Breece Hall tbh, I think he’ll score again, and 3/1 for Rodgers bestest bud Allen Lazard seems generous at Skybet.

Rams @ Bears -2.5; 41

The Rams came from a long way down to beat the 49ers last week with Matthew Stafford getting it done with backups while the Bears stunk it up again with a hideous OL performance giving Caleb Williams no chance against the Colts.

I’ve taken one line I thought was completely wrong involving the Rams this year and they got beaten by 30 points. I don’t see how the Rams are underdogs in this one, but I don’t think I’ll be taking them again! They had an emotional miraculous win last week and teams tend to fall off a bit the game after those types of victories. Expect 30-odd touches for Kyren Williams, deep shots to Tutu Atwell and maybe a bit more for rookie Jordan Whittington who was hyped a bit at the end of training camp.

The Bears should have Keenan Allen back which may help their horrible offense. Williams got a through highlight plays with throws on the run but he hasn’t shown anything in structure so far this season. Odunze caught a few last week and his first TD, Cole Kmet was heavily involved as well, but the run game is terrible and they’ll surely move away from D’andre Swift this week towards Roschon Johnson or Khalil Herbert. We’ll see how they do with Allen in there helping out, but I’m already writing off the chances of Caleb Williams being a star.

I have to lean to the Rams here, I’m going to fade Williams until he proves me wrong, which may well be this week. Kyren Williams anytime – 4/5 – I don’t like odds-on shots on here but we know he’s getting 25+ touches and scored through the air last week. Tutu Atwell longest reception o19.5 yards. His total yards is now 39.5 which seems a bit high although he may well get it done in one catch. Roschon Johnson o29.5 rush yards. Worryingly quite a few lines I like here, maybe my SGM for the week.

Bengals @ Panthers +4.5; 47

The Bengals sunk to 0-3 after a dismal defensive display on Monday night against the Commanders, failing to get a stop for the entire game. The Panthers looked resurgent with Andy Dalton at QB as they smashed the Raiders. The Red Rifle Revenge game.

Desperation time for the Bengals who looked great on offense last week, didn’t punt at all and a missed field goal and a 2pt attempt where blatant DPI was ignored cost them the chance of winning. Chase scored a couple of deep shot, Iosivas was found in the endzone again and Tee Higgins was eased back in. The run game has been good with a decent offensive line for once, Chase Brown looks more explosive but it’s Moss as the 1 still. They shouldn’t have any issues moving the ball on offense, but the defense NEEDS to be better for them to have any chance even against the Panthers.

Andy Dalton is a stud! And a bloody nice bloke and I’m glad he’s showing he can still do it, the Panthers offense seem to appreciate having someone who is even mildly talented back there instead of Bryce Young. Chuba Hubbard ran well and scored a receiving TD, Diontae Johnson will probably get double-digit targets tonight after a monster game last weekend and without Adam Thielen who snapped his hammy scoring a TD last week (It happens when we get older) they’ll be looking for Xavier Legette to step up, the rookie has flashed this year.

I like Chuba Hubbard anytime – 5/4 (888), he runs well with Dalton at QB and the Bengals run defense is horrible. The weather is the main thing worrying me in this one, although NFLWeather.com seems to think it will be fine. If there’s not extreme winds then I love the over here, both teams should be able to score freely.

Saints @ Falcons -1.5; 42.5

The Saints juggernaut start to the season came grinding to a halt with an inept offensive performance against the Eagles last week while the Falcons would have beaten the Chiefs if there was no bias from the referees. There will be plenty of niggle in this game, there always is, but Jamaal Williams going in for a score when they were told to kneel last season will have the Falcons fired up.

The loss of Erik McCoy looks like it’s going to have a big effect on the Saints offensive line and the offense as a whole, they can at least adjust knowing that he won’t be playing instead of losing him early on in the game like last week. Carr was on fire, as was Kamara. Kamara is nursing a knock but will play as should Chris Olave who was in a similar situation. They were close to some big TDs last week from Rashid Shaheed and I’m sure he’ll get a couple of deep shots again this week. @FarleyWrites has put up Bub Means for the Saints, I’m not convinced there, but he was big odds.

The Falcons are looking better by the week on offense as Kirk Cousins settles in but they still don’t seem to know how to use Bijan Robinson, 18 touches seems low for a stud RB as they mix in Tyler Allgeier still, and only 2 receptions seems off. Drake London is getting his work though and Darnell Mooney caught all 8 of his targets last week, it looks a shallow passing game, with Pitts and Ray Ray McCloud closing it out, that should be good for us betting on it.

A tough one to call on spread and total, I’d be leaning to the Falcons and under, but the Saints may well bounce back after a horrible week 3 so I’m staying away. Nothing on props either, although 39.5 for Mooney seems low if he’s heavily involved once again.

Eagles @ Buccs +2.5; 40

The Eagles snuck a win against the Saints, Hurts moved the ball well but kept giving it up. The Buccs suffered a big loss to the Broncos which I definitely didn’t see coming, will look to bounce back.

Hurts gave Dallas Goedert a career game last week with 10 for 170 yards and relied on Saquon Barkley to do the rest as AJ Brown missed out and Devonta Smith was nearly killed during it, neither star wideout will play here which leaves them very weak in the passing game. Saquon Barkley leads the league in rush yards through the first month and will probably keep that as he’ll be heavily involved here, probably my fave prop of the week is o3.5 receptions for him. Outside of him in the passing game it’s obviously Goedert and then Parris Campbell? Rookie Johnny Wilson, and Jahan Dotson? It’s not pretty.

Both Buccs running backs are coming into this one banged up, rookie Bucky Irving has had more of a role in recent weeks and looked good, he’s nursing a hamstring injury and Rachaad White had food poisoning on Friday, but both will be playing. It looks like we’ll get increasing amounts of Bucky on the ground which could lean to more short receptions for White which he’s excelled in with Baker Mayfield at QB. Baker had a poor game last week but is capable and has talent in Godwin and Evans on offense, they may well bounce back.

If the rosters were healthy the total would probably be 10 points higher for this one, but as it is it’s probably about right. I like both RBs reception lines here, Saquon Barkley o3.5 at 21/20 and Rachaad White o3.5 at 27/20. Probably worth a shot on someone like Grant Calcaterra at 11/1 (Paddy/Betfair) with the state of the Eagles WRs. Bucs bounce back and cover, nothing on total.

Jaguars @ Texans -6.5; 50.5

The Jags are 0-3 and look terrible, the Texans are 2-1 and don’t exactly look great themselves so far this season.

Things are wrong in Jacksonville, surely Trevor Lawrence isn’t THIS bad? The WR group isn’t great without Ridley there, Christian Kirk is fine, Brian Thomas looks all right for a rookie, Gabe Davis isn’t getting much, Evan Engram being out is obviously a big loss for them at TE. They don’t seem to be running the ball well Etienne can’t get going and their LT Cam Robinson is a turnstile, it’s not pretty there.

The Texans stumbled in a loss to the Vikings last week only scoring 1 TD, it seems like they missed Joe Mixon a lot in the run game, he is a game-time decision here with Cam Akers taking the main role if he’s out again. Nico Collins topped his receiving line for the 3rd game in a row and Stefon Diggs led them in yards as they were chasing the game from early on. Tank Dell is ruled out for them so Dalton Schultz will need to start catching some balls. Robert Woods probably the 3 with Dell missing out.

The Texans should take care of business but I can’t have to covering a TD with how slow they seem to have started. Under on the total, again, they’ve started fairly slow.

Patriots @ 49ers -10; 40.5

The Pats put up 3 points last Thursday night with Brissett struggling with no protection, the 49ers gave up a big lead against the Rams as Purdy found Jauan Jenning repeatedly but their defense couldn’t hold out.

Not much to say for the Patriots, if they can’t get Rhamondre Stevenson going then they’ve got nothing, we could see a lot more Drake Maye in this one. Hunter Henry the one person worth looking at in the passing game.

49ers need to bounce back and get a gimme here, Jordan Mason probably gets a lot more on the ground, and they should have Deebo and George Kittle back so those Jennings shares take a hit immediately. They really need more from Aiyuk who has had a slow start after a tough summer. Their defense should kill whichever QB is in for the Pats, this shouldn’t be a contest.

Have to lean to the 49ers and under, but it’s too high for me to bet. Antonio Gibson o1.5 receptions – 11/10 (365) – I was hoping for a 2.5 line so I’ll definitely be taking this one.

Commanders @ Cardinals -3.5; 50.5

This should be a fun one. The Commies beat the Bengals on Monday night, so coming off a short week, across the country, rough spot. The Cards lost to the Lions last week and didn’t really ever look in it.

Jayden Daniels is the man! He looked fantastic against my team on Monday night, a 92% completion percentage and one of the 2 passes he missed on was Terry McLaurin strolling in for a 50-yard TD, it could have been even better for him. The Cards defense isn’t stellar so he should do well here as well. Austin Ekeler misses out with a concussion so more for Brian Robinson and maybe Jeremy McNichol who replaced him last week. Terry McLaurin is a stud, he caught a couple of deeper shots from Daniels last week, one for the game-winning score. Zach Ertz will get his against his old side and Luke McCaffrey has popped up a bit as well in his first season. I think I like Noah Brown to score here. Maybe even a sniff on Chris Rodriguez who always seems to fill in quite well at big odds 18/1 (PP).

The Cards have eased Marvin Harrison into things and he should have a big game in this one if he’s as good as Ja’marr Chase (which seems close) he should abuse the Commanders CBs. James Conner always runs well but was slowed a bit last week. Michael Wilson has looked good in the passing game and without Trey McBride this week they will probably use Greg Dortch a lot more in that area, maybe an Elijach Higgins endzone look or two.

I think this will be the highest scoring game of the main slate, should be fun. Over on the total, some punts on TD scorers – Noah Brown – 4/1 (CoraLadbrokes)

Chiefs @ Chargers +8; 40 (Sky)

The late Sky game is a divisional clash between the 3-0 Chiefs and the Chargers who look like they’ll have a crippled Justin Herbert starting for them and Taylor Heinicke finishing the game, with their bye coming up next week I feel they should rest him but it seems like he’ll be playing.

The Chiefs could be 0-3, a toenail, refs and, refs again getting them close wins, but that’s how it is for them now, they’re far more defense based rather than an explosive offense, I got used to it last year and I’ll have to this year as well. Travis Kelce has done nothing, but may well be an anytime bet at 2/1, I can’t remember ever seeing that price for him. Rashee Rice is a star, 7 or more receptions seems likely for him again and Carson Steele looks like he’ll do enough on the ground as well. They’ll do their thing and they’ll do it well.

The Chargers have struggled to move the ball without Herbert being healthy and I don’t think they’ll have too much success here. JK Dobbins started the season on fire but that’s dropped a little, the Gus Bus has a flat tyre (correct spelling) and the passing game seems to rely on Quentin Johnston getting open, which in fairness he has done a lot in his second year. They intend to go run-heavy and if they can’t then they’re pretty fucked. Derwin James misses out after yet another dirty hit, he was rightfully suspended by the league, his reputation proceeds him and will continue to do so.

Chiefs win, I’m not taking them on the spread as it’s bound to be close but I don’t see the Chargers putting up more than 15 points, lean under on the total. Kelce anytime – 15/8 (PP) – I can’t ignore the odds

Browns @ Raiders -1; 37

The Browns are coming off a loss to the Giants, but at least got Amari Cooper some fantasy points while the Raiders looked inept against a terrible Panthers side. The Raiders were favourites for this game before injury news hit, I couldn’t believe that.

The Browns aren’t a good team, they rely on defense and their secondary was gashed last week. Myles Garrett is playing through injuries to both feet and without him getting home it will be a struggle for them. The offense isn’t good without Nick Chubb there (he returned to training this week so should be off PUP soon) with the run game struggling between Jerome Ford and Dont’a Foreman. The passing game relies on a QB who’s not only a horrible person but seemingly past his best. He did find Amari Cooper a few times last week and that’s where he should be looking more, without David Njoku once more I doubt this will be a better offensive display than what we’ve seen so far.

The Raiders are already considering a QB change but Minshew starts again this week, his task is tougher though without Davante Adams playing. Tre Tucker will get some deep shots but they’ll rely on Jakobi Meyers more who did well when Aiden O’Connell came into the game last week, maybe look for him anytime at half time when his odds should bump up. This could be Brock Bowers coming out game as he’ll probably get double-digit targets in the passing game. The run game has been terrible, Zamir White looked good last year but can’t get going this and Alexander Mattison keeps stealing TDs. I might have taken the Raiders if Maxxxxxx Crosby was playing but with him out I think they’ll struggle to get pressure.

Browns win and cover despite the line moving so much their way. Look for Meyers at halftime if the Raiders are trailing and he’s not yet scored. I can’t take o5.5 receptions for Bowers but he could be there.

Bills @ Ravens -2.5; 46.5

This is a fun one to close out the night. The Bills only played their starters for 3 quarters on Monday night in destroying the Jags, the Ravens were comfortable enough against the Cowboys but eased off the gas after going well ahead, seems a trait of theirs this year. Two QBs who tend to struggle in BIG games, both mobile, both capable, should be a fun one.

Josh Allen is playing at MVP level but can he do it against a good team? I still have my doubts, but are the Ravens a good team? Jury seems out on that at the moment. He was imperious on Monday against a horrible Jags team with his team scoring 35 points in the first half. They lack a star in the WR department but are getting good work out of Khalil Shakir and enough from everyone else there, Keon Coleman scored after turning up late to the game, Dalton Kincaid is a very good TE and James Cook does well out of the backfield, as does Ty Johnson. James Cook is running very well and already has 4 TDs this year.

The Ravens are using Derrick Henry as you’d expect and he’s scored every week this year, he and Lamar Jackson could be the first QB/RB for 20 years to hit 300 yards rushing in the first month of the season. The passing game has been poor, Mark Andrews had his first ZERO in 76 games last weekend, Zay Flowers is doing fine, but the rest need to help out Lamar a little more. I do like Justice Hill in the passing game once more and that’s probably where I’ll be looking here.

Should be a fun one, I’ll probably be taking the over on the total and PROBABLY the Ravens? The Bills have been dominant but not really tested yet. The Ravens are more desperate for the win. Justice Hill o12.5 rec yards (Skybet)

That wraps up Sunday Week 4. Gets a bit easier for me last week with the Bye Weeks starting!

Good luck if you’re betting tonight. I’ll probably have a chalky TD scorer bet, seems a lot of that about this week. Henry, Kyren, Saquon, Chuba, all high on my list for a small 4-fold

feat. image – TROY HULL | THE CHARLOTTE POST