Week 5; The pain of Bye’s and injuries.

What a game to start Week 5! The Falcons beat the Bucs in OT with Kirk Cousins throwing for 509 yards, in one of my fantasy leagues you get a point per completion alongside the usual stuff… 105 points for Kirky C, and yet I’m still only 51% favourite, it’s not a good team… anyway… Kyle Pitts is still alive, Drake London scored a couple and it was a bloomin’ lovely fun game to watch the highlights of.

That was the good, now the bad, well, the incredibly frustrating and terrible really… DraftKings have decided as of yesterday that they’re done with the UK market (and I think all of Europe now) and have ended offering DFS to UK-based customers leading a raft of withdrawals and shafting me on the first year I chose to run Season Long DFS… Thanks DraftKings.

The good news is that there are alternatives. I’ll personally be having a go on the Gameday Fantasy App (@fantasy_gameday on X) – obviously, you’re not looking at the money that DK offer, but they’re British-based and should only get bigger with few options out there to choose from now. – If you want to give it a go then you can sign up and get a free game if you use my code – TDTIP when opening an account and entering your first contest, gets me a little bit and you a free entry.

I’ve done a preview for the London game already which kicks off in a matter of hours on ITV at 1430.

On to Week 5 and the start of the bye weeks, and they’re fairly significant in terms of offensive talent this week with the Lions, Eagles, Chargers and er… Titans having the week off, add that to the ever-increasing injury list and it’s a tough week out there.

Ravens -2.5 @ Bengals: 49 (Sky)

The Ravens got back to 2-2 last week with a dominant win over the Bills while the Bengals picked up their first win of the season on the road in Carolina to keep themselves in striking distance in the AFC North after the Steelers tripped up against the Colts. It’s only Week 5 but this feels like a big game already this year.

It’s been a weird start for the Ravens who have stumbled against poorer opponents, but I think they’re closer to where they were last week than their defeats in terms of where they are on the season. Derrick Henry looks like he’s settled in fine after putting up 199 yards a couple of scores last weekend including one of his first carry of the game, he should extend his lead atop the rushing rankings and TD rankings while hitting some milestones needing 18 yards and a TD against a poor Bengals run defense to get to 10,000 yards and 100 TDs, if he doesn’t get things going then they’ll be fine moving the ball with Lamar on the ground or Justice Hill who’s been a revelation in the passing game at running back for them this season.

The actual passing game hasn’t been quite so smooth with Mark Andrews looking a shell of his old self and only really Zay Flowers proving to be reliable target in that facet of the game. Rashod Bateman is adequate, and Nelson Agholor takes up space on the field as well, but it’s not the area of the game they look to win in and they’re fine with that. When you’ve got the best RB and rushing QB in the league you don’t really need to bother too much throwing the ball.

The Bengals finally have an offensive line and it’s allowed them to be one of the more efficient rushing teams in the league with Zack Moss and Chase Brown proving a good 1-2 punch, Brown is by far the more explosive and should see more game-time as we go through the season, he’ll look to add to the two TDs he had last weekend. The offensive line gives Joe Burrow more time to get the ball to his stars and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should do well against a Ravens team who have been weaker against the pass this season, I like Tee to be the man this week as Chase will get the tougher coverage once more. If neither of them do it then Erick All at TE, and Andrei Iosivas have shown they can move the chains as well.

Both offenses match up well against the weaknesses of the opposing defense in this game so it should be a high-scoring affair. The Bengals tend to be absolutely terrible in division and that’s the reason I’d be taking the Ravens covering the spread, and over on the total. Tee Higgins o4.5 receptions, Justice Hill o2.5 receptions. This will be my bet builder game, I like points and yards here.

Bills +1 @ Texans: 47.5

The other big game of the weekend is also in the AFC as the Bills fresh off a shellacking by the Ravens last weekend look to bounce back against a Texans team who cameback to beat the Jaguars.

Josh Allen is apparently the players choice for MVP so far this season, yet he never seems to get the wins against the better teams in the league and while his defense allowing the Ravens to maul them wans’t his fault, it’s something I take note of. He works this offense well though and is one of the best players in the league so I won’t write him off completely. The Bills had been dominant before last week so it’s what you choose to believe really. Are the Texans a good team? If so they may well win here, if not then the Bills will probably trounce them.

James Cook has been running well and getting the rushing TDs which would usually go to Josh Allen who has stepped back a bit on rushing so far this season, and it’s the ground where the Bills prefer to go, if they can get ahead then he’ll have a good game. It makes sense as there’s a distinct lack of talent in the passing game and that’s made worse by Khalil Shakir missing this week. It could open things up for Curtis Samuel who’s done little since being brought in or maybe Keon Coleman the rookie who I’d assume would get more targets. They run a lot of two TE sets with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox both on the field, one of them probably needs to step up in Shakir’s absence.

The Texans ran the ball well to start the year but since Joe Mixon went down have really struggled as Cam Akers doesn’t have the same burst after numerous achilles injuries, they could do with something there to balance the offense a little more, maybe Stefon Diggs will have a few more carries against the team he abandoned over the summer.

CJ Stroud has been fine and Nico Collins is the best WR in the league through 4 games this year. He leads the league with 489 yards but will want to add some more TDs to his resumé after scoring his 2nd of the season last weekend, he had a few targets in the endzone so they’re definitely trying. Stefon Diggs is the two behind him and he’ll want to show the Bills that he was right to throw a paddy last year and essentially give up on the team, and Tank Dell is healthy and good to go in this one making him one of the better WR3’s in the league. Dalton Schultz probably needs to do more to help them and it wouldn’t be a shock for Dare Ogunbowale to pop up again with a reception or two.

Should be a great game, I like the overs again as I don’t rate either offense too highly. I do think the Texans are a good team so I’m taking them as home underdogs the line has now moved through the 0 to have the Texans as faves. I guess it’d be Collins o81.5 if I was taking a prop here, but there’s not much jumping out to me.

Panthers +4 @ Bears: 41

The Panthers are a working offense with Andy Dalton under center but came up short last weekend while the Bears are still working towards being a working offense with rookie Caleb Williams under center, they did get a win over the Rams last weekend to go to 2-2.

Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard are the big beneficiaries of Dalton being the QB in Carolina, Johnson has 7 and 8 receptions in the two games with Dalton there and Chuba has run well although was taken out for drives last week which confuses me a little. Xavier Legette has stepped up is looking better by the week, got his first score in the NFL last weekend.

The Bears offense has been dismal, the offensive line one of the worst in the league so far this year and while Caleb Williams seems to work well out of structure he’s not been great otherwise. D’Andre Swift did manage to get going on the ground finally, but the passing game even with Keenan Allen back has been rough, DJ Moore should be the main man, and Rome Odunze looks decent in what little we’ve seen.

I prefer the Panthers as a team, but I don’t trust them against a good Bears defense. I’d lean under on the total. Nothing much anywhere on this game for me, I don’t trust either offense.

Browns +3 @ Commanders: 43.5

Talking of not trusting offenses… The Cleveland Browns. They probably should have won last week, but a holding call negating a huge TD leaves them at 1-3. The Commanders go from strength-to-strength as they smashed the Cardinals in Arizona last weekend.

Deshaun Watson hasn’t actually been THAT bad, sure his numbers aren’t good and they’re not winning games but the offensive line is hideous and his WRs have been dropping a lot. Amari Cooper should be getting more targets, he was the one who got that TD wiped off last weekend, Jerry Jeudy is fine helping out and the return of David Njoku will definitely help them out. They have got Nick Chubb back in training which will help the run game, although over 5 yards per carry for Jerome Ford is good in the small amounts of work he gets. Their defense has been below average so far this year and that’s killing them.

The Commanders have been brilliant in the last few weeks putting up over 100 points in their 3 wins and sitting pretty atop the NFC East as Jayden Daniels looks to be the pick of the draft this year, his 82% completion percentage has him the highest ever through 4 games of a career and he looks good doing it, add in his rushing ability and an aggressive coaching team and it’s made the Commanders fun for the first time in years. Terry McLaurin is up there with the best in the league and should shine as Daniels goes downfield more and Olamide Zaccheus and Noah Brown provide good enough support behind him, as does experienced Zach Ertz at TE for them. It sounds like Brian Robinson is good to go and Austin Ekeler comes back in after missing last week through concussion.

I like the Commanders to win and cover, but it would be typical of the Browns to turn up here and dampen all the hype behind Jayden Daniels. I do have a prop I love here though Austin Ekeler o13.5 receiving yards – He’s had 52, 47 and 22 (in one half) so far this season and while the offense has evolved he’s a reliable release valve for them.

Colts +3 @ Jaguars: 46

The Colts looked like a functional defense after Anthony Richardson made the ridiculous decision to run the ball and get head-shotted by Minkah last week as he slid, Flacco came in and they won the game. The Jags fell to 0-4 after giving up a decent lead to the Texans.

Joe Flacco looks like he’ll get the start here which is a boost to all pass-catchers on the team as Richardson is doubtful and they’ll be without star running back as Jonathon Taylor is out with an ankle sprain. So Trey Sermon comes in, not as good as Taylor but he’s been fine as a backup when needed so I don’t think much will change. The main beneficiary will likely be Michael Pittman as he and Josh Downs led the team in targets last week and should again. It’s probably bad for Alec Pierce as the deep threat but maybe Adonai Mitchell might finally catch a pass in the NFL.

The Jags haven’t been good and that contract for Trevor Lawrence isn’t looking pretty. The defense has been terrible and their LT is killing the offense, it’s been messy so far. Etienne and Bigsby looks like they’re sharing the load on the ground but Brian Thomas Jnr. has looked good in his first year for the Jags in the passing game at least. He’s behind Christian Kirk in the heirachy but it’s a good draft pick for once for them. Gabe Davis hasn’t done much but is very boom/bust in general, and they are desperate for Evan Engram back but that won’t be this week.

I’ve nothing on the spread, I think the Colts might be better without Richardson the way he’s started the season so I’ll lean to the Colts getting points. I wanted to take Josh Downs receptions, but 5/7 for o4.5 isn’t for me. Trey Sermon o1.5 reception probably the bet on props. You can get 8/1 for Evan Hull, he might get a few touches behind Sermon.

Dolphins -1 @ Patriots: 35.5

Wow. What a game. The two worst teams in the league this year in terms of performances, the Dolphins gave the Titans their first win of the season in a stink-fest last week and the Patriots were destroyed by the 49ers pass rush in their defeat in San Fran.

Odell Beckham is off of PUP for the Dolphins. YAY! His reputation preceeds him. Devon Achane should be fine, the rest of the offense is relying on sub-sub-sub-par QB play which is killing the offense. Tyreek Hill… is 2/1 to score a TD, I don’t think I can ignore that, he’ll get an end-around, jet sweep or two, surely?! That’s too much talk about their offense, but I don’t really want to talk about the Pats either.

Jacoby Brissett is being killed by his OL, but also missing wide open players, they’ll surely go to Drake Maye soon, but maybe they don’t want to hurt the kid behind the sieve of protection in front of him. It looks like Antonio Gibson gets the start at RB as Rhamondre Stevenson keeps fumbling, but we’ll wait and see if that’s true or not. Kendrick Bourne is off of PUP. YAY! Hunter Henry the only real positive of their season so far and he’s not been great.

Surely the Dolphins win here? I can’t go under the total. Tyreek Hill anytime – 2/1 (PP/Betfair WillHill) you can ladder receptions on Bet365 – Antonio Gibson o1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 receptions – 20/37, 33/20 and 17/4 – I’m not sure where else you can do that but it should be profitable.

Cardinals +7 @ 49ers: 49.5

The Cards were killed by the Commanders last week while the 49ers had a relaxing week against the Pats.

Marvin Harrison has looked great in the first quarter of games this season before they seem to ignore him for the remainder of the games as Kyler Murray seems to be struggling outside of scripted plays to start the game. He’s always been tough to judge and it’s looking like that this season too, some great throws, good movement but too often just kills drives and the play-calling has been less than aggressive which doesn’t help. James Conner scored his 3rd in 4 games last weekend and will get the goal-line carries, but they’re lacking much else on offense although Trey McBride is expected to play through a rib injury. Michael Wilson could pop up and Greg Dortch will probably get 4 or 5 receptions for 20 yards.

The 49ers defense got the job done last week as Brock Purdy gave the ball away a few times but with Deebo Samuel back with Aiyuk and Jennings the offense looked good still. Jordan Mason looks like he’s got the RB job for another month at least as McCaffrey still isn’t near returning and they’ll try to give their star as long as possible to recover from his tendonitus.

It’s all looking good for the 49ers as players return from injury, my instinct was to take the Cards covering as it’s a divisional clash and they tend to be closer but I have a lot more faith in the 49ers killing them than the other way around. 49ers win and cover.

Raiders +3 @ Broncos: 36

The Raiders won with Adams or Crosby last weekend as their defense stood firm to keep the Browns out at the end of the game while the Broncos won with 10 points despite missing a last minute field goal in a monsoon in New Jersey.

The Raiders aren’t a good team but have got the job done a couple of times this year to sit at 2-2, Minshew is fine, and without Zamir White this week the run game might be better as Mattison has looked better so far this year. The passing game is rough, Jakobi Meyers is now the main man there with Tre Tucker and Brock Bowers behind him. They completed 14 passes last week, it’s nothing something I want to get involved in.

Bo Nix looks all right, that’s about as positive as I’ve been on him this year and Javonte Williams ran well with a heavy workload last weekend. Courtland Sutton is the 7th most targetted player in the league this year with 20 in the last fortnight, he’s only caught 15 of his 36 targets this year but it’s fair to say Bo Nix likes him. There’s not much else here other than that and an apparently pretty good defense.

It’s tough to take the under on a low total but it sure looks that way. I like Tre Tucker deep shots but he let me down last weekend. Long shot on Tyreik McAllister at 22/1 (UniBet), Sutton o4.5 receptions – 11/10

Packers -3 @ Rams: 49

Should be a fun one, the Packers lost to the Vikings last week in a high-scoring game while the Rams were stopped by the Bears in Chicago.

Jordan Love is back and weirdly the Packers have lost both games he’s started this year sitting at 2-2, he put up some good yards in the second half last week once they were 28-0 down, but is without Christian Watson through injury and Romeo Doubs through sulking this week. So it’s down to Josh Jacobs on the ground and Jayden Reed through the air really. Dontayvion Wicks gets a nice boost up the pecking order with players missing and showed he can do it with a couple of scores last weekend. Bo Melton should get involved, he’s 4/1 and while he’s behind Tucker Kraft now, Luke Musgrave may get more as well, at 7/1 he’s worth a shot.

The Rams have been moving the ball well with few weapons but have struggled in the redzone as you’d expect. Kyren Williams has looked great with a heavy workload and it’s Ronnie Rivers behind him not rookie Blake Corum as many would have expected. The passing game has been tough but Tutu Atwell has been putting up yardage for them, he is always a deep threat. Rookie Jordan Whittington has been moving the ball for them between the 20s but they just don’t seem to be able to finish drives.

I don’t think either defense is very good, Packers should win and cover, I like the over as well. Dontayvion Wicks – 13/8 (Spreadex, Starsports), Luke Musgrave – 7/1 (PP)

Giants +7 @ Seahawks: 43

The Giants lost to the Cowboys on TNF last week while the Seahawks were smashed by the Lions on Monday night giving us the biggest rest disparity of the season here, a positive for the Giants, but the Seahawks are at home at least.

The rest is the only reason I can think of for this line not being higher. Daniel Jones is below-average and without the most targeted player in the league, Malik Nabers this week (he’s had nearly 40% of the teams targets this year) I’m not sure how they’ll really move the ball. Wan’Dale Robinson is a PPR king as he’s top 5 in targets across the league as well, but it might be more beneficial for Darius Slayton who I love as a deep threat but hasn’t had much this year. They’re also without Devin Singletary, so missing their RB1 as well, Tyrone Tracey gets the boost there.

The Seahawks lost comfortably but put up yards still and Kenneth Walker returned to take the workload on the ground with a hat-trick of scores. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and JSN are a good trio who should have good games, we know Metcalf will but the other two seem to take it in turns. Zach Charbonnet now the firm 2nd choice on the ground with Walker back in the fold. The Seahawks should have a couple of starters back on defense which will help.

I had the Seahawks -6.5 as my pick for Spread of the week on the F10Y betting podcast, and I’ll stick with that, we expected it to go through the 7 with Nabers officially out but it’s stuck here. AJ Barner – 9/1 (Skybet) could be worth a poke, they like him in the Redzone. Darius Slayton longest reception – o18.5

Cowboys +2.5 @ Steelers: 44

The Cowboys made it to 2-2 with that TNF win over the Giants while the Steelers lost for the first time against Joe Flacco’s Colts last weekend.

It’s been a messy season for the Cowboys, they need a solid defense and offensive line to work and neither of those areas are doing it so far this year. The loss of Brandin Cooks to IR hurts an already shallow offense, so I guess more for Lamb and Ferguson? They had more than half the targets already last week, I’m not sure how much more they can get. Jalen Tolbert will likely get a few more looks but the passing game isn’t great so far. The run game is poor too with Rico Dowdle and Zeke Elliott sharing the workload, I think it’s time for them to phase out Zeke a bit more and let Rico get into a rhythm on the ground but the Cowboys aren’t well coached, so who knows what will happen.

Justin Fields is looking better by the week, more confident in the offense and seemingly running the ball more. Talking of shallow passing offenses, this is probably worse than the Cowboys, with George Pickens and not much more in the WR corps and Pat Friermuth at TE the only real targets for them, Pickens topped 100 last week but had a fumble in there too. Outside of him they’ll look to Najee Harris and I would have thought more Cordarelle Patterson who had one drive last week before disappearinig. They’re without Jaylen Warren again so a lot of Najee I’d imagine, although surely they give C Patt more snaps? They’re one of the best defense in the league and I’d expect TJ Watt to have some fun to close out the Sunday slate.

Probably not one for the neutrals, but the two teams the NFL and America love more than any other in primetime was too much for the league to refuse. I like the Under in this one, and probably the Steelers taking themselves to 4-1 for the season. Remarkable stuff. I just don’t trust the Cowboys to put up more than 20 points.

That’s it for the night, good luck with whatever you’re backing and if you’re at the London game, enjoy it, it’ll be the last time Aaron Rodgers is over here. I don’t like him, or particularly rate him but his spot among the best seems secured.