We got treated to a scrappy, but eventually entertaining game with the Jets losing to the Vikings last week as Aaron Rodgers threw a game-ending interception with under a minute on the clock, which led to the end of Robert Saleh’s time as head coach as Rodgers protected his mate when Nate Hackett was going to be replaced and Woody Johnson, two Americanisms for penis, listened to his QB and removed Saleh. Saleh, a defensive coach had his area of the field operating well this season while the offense had struggled. The Vikings moved to 5-0 after jumping out to a big lead but Darnold was fallible and they were thankful the Jets offense wasn’t firing as they closed out the game.
This week we’ve got the 3-2 Bears with the #1 pick in this year’s draft at QB fresh of a comfortable win over the Panthers. The Bears are 1-1 in London after a 2011 win over the Bucs and a 2019 loss to the Raiders. The Jaguars finally got their first win of the season last week over the Colts. It’s their 11th game in London, with a 6-5 record, but Trevor Lawrence is 3-1 after winning both of their double-header over this side of the pond last season and he’s the only Rookie QB (so far) to have won over here. They stay in London to face the Patriots in a hideous looking matchup next weekend, good news for the Jags though as they may well be facing a rookie QB there too, unless he dies this week.
Two weeks on from DraftKings abandoning the UK, I won some money on FantasyGameday App last week and they’ve expanded quickly announcing new game types coming soon with the big increase in numbers coming to their platform. If you haven’t given it a go yet and are missing your DFS fix then use code TDTIP when signing up and you’ll get a free entry to a contest.
Bears -1 vs. Jaguars: 44.5
Da Bears
I’ll be blunt, I’ve not been convinced by Caleb Williams at all so far, I thought he struggled in pre-season and he’s struggled to start the proper season as well behind an admittedly horrible offensive line, HOWEVER, The Bears offense looked a lot better last week against a poor Panthers secondary as they seem to have figured out that you just need to lob it to DJ Moore and he’ll do the rest. Williams’ 20/29 for 304 and 2 TDs was by far the best game of his early career earning him a QBR a whole 45 points against his next best this year, the addition of a functional run game over the past fortnight has obviously been key as they’re not being reliant on an inexperienced kid at QB.
D’Andre Swift may well have felt the pressure from the other RBs getting some chances behind him as he’s stepped up recently with TD’s in consecutive games, he’s being given the first chance at RB and he’s got the talent to do something with it as well as being a solid target catching out of the backfield as well. Roschon Johnson tends to get the goal-line work as more of a bruiser, he has also scored in consecutive games with a double last weekend, while Khalil Herbert is an after-thought for now.
The passing game should be going through DJ Moore and last week it looked like that would be the case, he had 2 TDs and 109 yards on his 5 receptions making it 27 on the year, good for 13th most. in the league. Tight ends and running backs are usually a rookie QBs best friends and that seems to be the case here too with Kmet 2nd in yards and Swift 4th. Kmet has just the one score so far but seems good for 3 or 4 targets a game, nothing to write home about really. Rome Odunze came in the draft this year as well and at the moment seems to be used a lot on the outside as a deeper threat, he’ll have a massive game at some point when things click but it’s been a bit painful owning him in fantasy so far with just 1 score. With Keenan Allen as the 3rd WR it’s a good team the Bears have put in place which just isn’t working just yet but should improve as the season goes on, they have won every game that Allen has been involved him, so maybe he’s the key.
The defense has been a big part of their wins though, while they’ve not come against high-powered offenses (the Panthers, Rams and Titans) they have been getting good pressure up front and they sit 7th in yards allowed per game and have 6 interceptions as a team this year good for third in the league. Gervon Dexter is one I’ve picked out for the afternoon, with a sack in 4 of their 5 games this year.
Jagaurs
It’s been a rough start for the Jags who don’t seem to have been able to get much going on offense and haven’t been able to rely on their defense to help out either, although while they’ve lost 4 games, 3 of those were by a combined 12 points, with the hammering by the Bills the one blow-out they’ve suffered this year.
The offensive line is a miss and without Calvin Ridley they seem to be struggling for a WR1, but statistically, Trevor Lawrence hasn’t actually been too bad and had his best game of the year last week managing to get through without a sack or interception and setting his career high in yards in their first win of the season, he’s not had to rush too much but is fine when he has to and while I don’t rate him particularly highly, he is capable of making any throw he needs.
The run game is spread around Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby now with Bigsby looking the better in recent weeks with a few breakaway runs and 2 TDs, both coming in their win last weekend, he’s averaging 8 yards per carry although it is skewed by big runs in the last couple of matches. Etienne seems to be the first choice still and will do better in the passing game than Tank, but if one is going to score, it’s much more likely to be Bigsby these days.
Brian Thomas came in the draft this season and has established himself in the league pretty quickly, 7th in yards at this early point of the season after 122 and a TD last week, his third of the season, at least 5 receptions in their last 3 games. Christian Kirk has been fine but is looking like he’s been usurped by Thomas now in the pecking order and so far this year Gabe Davis has been practically invisible, probably his fault for choosing the #0 for his jersey number. They may finally have Evan Engram back who looked like a very good redzone threat in pre-season but has missed the last month of the season through injury, if they can add him to Brenton Strange who is a large human being and has been found a couple of times in the endzone already this year.
Unsurprisingly with a 1-4 record the defense hasn’t been great for the Jags this year, allowing the most yards through the air, the second-most total and 4th most points so far this season, although again, the Bills game does skew that to a certain extent, but zero interceptions on the year speaks volumes meaning they’ve allowed the 3rd highest passer rating against them.
Overall?
Honestly, I’m no further towards an answer here, I’m not sure how this game will go but with the experience of coming over here and their win last week I am leaning towards the Jaguars winning and therefore covering, although it’s a slight lean as the Bears defense is far better than the Jaguars.
Games at Spurs Stadium seem to be higher scoring than Wembley games so I’ll have a look at the over on that side of things.
Props-wise? I’ll go for o3.5 receptions for Cole Kmet at 5/4, you know what, each QB to throw 2+ TDs at 3/1 (SkyBet), actually 3.28/1 on PaddyPower is a go for me as well, with Engram back it makes sense that Brenton Strange‘s odds are higher, but I think 7/1 for him (Betfair/PP) is worth a shot.
Have fun if you’re going this week, hopefully it’s a good one.
TouchdownTips 