NFL Week 6; Jayden Daniels MVP?

We’re into Week 6 of the NFL season and with the Bears vs. Jaguars London game preview in the books already it’s on to the rest of the Sunday slate this weekend.

First up, it’s another week since DraftKings abandoned us in the UK and FantasyGameday App have stepped up their game with the recent income of contestants offering more contests than ever, if you fancy giving it a go use code TDTIP on signup and get a free contest entry when you enter a contest. I personally had a nice win on there last weekend to get off to a nice start using their UK-based app.

The Vikings and Cheifs will both remain unbeaten as they’re on bye this week along with the Rams and Dolphins leaving several of my fantasy teams decimated.

Some interesting looking games on the slate this weekend, as a Bengals fan I’m not sure why they decided that Giants v Bengals was suitable for Sunday night football, a 1am wake up is not welcomed, but here we are. The Commies and Ravens highlights the whole slate though and is rightly the early Sky game. Lions and Cowboys the easy choice for the late game.

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Commanders +7 @ Ravens: 51.5

The Commies have been the surprise of the season so far with Jayden Daniels odds for MVP dropping by the minute, before last weekend you could have still got 50/1 on him, that’s now down around 10/1 now with 12/1 the best available, I haven’t backed it as I keep expecting the drop off, but he’s been mighty impressive leading the Commanders to 4-1. They face a Ravens team coming off an Overtime win over the Bengals last weekend sitting at 3-2 level with the Steelers atop the AFC North.

It’s hard to downplay what Daniels has done, he set completion records for rookies, he’s good on the ground and he’s finding his guys through the air and while he didn’t have the best of games against a good Browns defense last week, they still put up 35 points and got an easy win. He may well have to get the passing game going again this week against a Ravens team who are good at stopping the run and horrible through the air so far this season. Terry McLaurin should have a good day in the passing game as he looks to replicate either Higgins or Chases’ records from last weekend, he had half of Daniels’ yards last weekend and looks to be forming a good connection with his QB down the field. Zach Ertz has been reliable in the shorter game but they probably need more from the bit part players, Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey have been fine but could be better. They’re without Brian Robinson on the ground tonight but Jeremy McNichols has done well without B.Rob there and Austin Ekeler has shown up well as he looks to bounce back from a poor season last year.

The Ravens have been dominating teams on the ground with Derrick Henry scoring in every game this season and that will likely carry on here as he and Lamar look to run over teams and Justice Hill gets increasingly involved in that area. They did struggle a little to get going last week and it wasn’t until they gave up the run game that they put up points against a poor Bengals defense, but they do lack talent in the pass-catching game with Zay Flowers the only reliable target so far this season. The disappearance of Mark Andrews is a strange one as last week Isiah Likely and Charlie Kolar were the big men getting the ball in the endzone. Rashod Bateman got his second TD of the season as WR2.

Should be a very fun game and I do think the Commanders will be able to put up yards through the air. They’ve been aggressive all year on 4th downs which has aided their scoring and I don’t see that changing in this one. I like the Commanders to keep it closer than a TD so I’d take them on the spread. Terry McLaurin o59.5 rec. yards. I do like Ekeler to top his rec. line again, but it’s bumped up to 22.5 yards now which I don’t want to go on. Zach Ertz o3.5 receptions – 11/10 – Only caught 2 but had 8 targets last week and faces a pass-funnel defense.

Cardinals +5.5 @ Packers: 47.5

I’ve not been able to judge the Cardinals this season, who come in at 2-3 after beating the 49ers last weekend. The Packers are 3-2 after dealing with a bad Rams team last weekend.

Kyler Murray probably had his best game of the season as he got his ground game moving last weekend with a 50-yard TD straight out of the gate and used his legs to get the game sealed at the end of things. He finds Marvin Harrison well early on before he disappears but the passing game seems unpredictable at the moment. Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch and Trey McBride will all get a handful of targets but there’s nothing there I want to bet on.

The Packers offense isn’t exactly flying yet either although have Romeo Doubs back after his crying last weekend. Jayden Reed is the 1 there and will remain that despite Watson and Doubs both returning here. Tucker Kraft had his first 2 TD game last week and it’s safe to say he’s above Luke Musgrave at TE for them now as well. Josh Jacobs has been running well but I think they’d have preferred to keep Aaron Jones.

An interesting game which I’m staying well away from, I wouldn’t be surprised with any result here. I’d probably lean over on the total. Jacobs rec yards is tempting but he only gets 1 or 2 recs a game so risky.

Browns +8.5 @ Eagles: 42.5

The Browns are 8.5 point underdogs… that seems offensive, but I won’t argue with it. They haven’t been good and will be grateful for Nick Chubb returning next weekend, they’re 1-4 going to meet an Eagles team coming off their bye week at 2-2.

It’s a mess in Cleveland who haven’t been able to protect their QB or get a run game going so far, both things that destroy an offense. Deshaun Watson looks like he’s past it which gives me a chuckle every team I think of how they’ve hurt their team giving him that contract, Foreman and Ford aren’t great running backs and their passing game has been horrible despite Amari Cooper being one of the better WRs in the league, my doppelganger Kevin Stefanski could be on the hot-seat with another defeat here.

The Eagles have struggled this year as Jalen Hurts constantly kills drives with fumbles or interceptions but the return of Devonta Smith and AJ Brown will definitely help things in the passing game, being left with Parris Campbell as your lead WR was never going to be good. Saquon Barkley has been brilliant since he came in and should score again this week after costing me a fortune in Week 4. The Eagles defense has been up and down but should be fine in this matchup.

I can’t take the Eagles giving that many points but it’s that way I lean, and I’m looking under on the total as I’m not sure the Browns score 2 TDs.

Texans -6.5 @ Patriots: 37.5

The Texans haven’t been firing on all cylinders but come into this at 4-1 against a Patriots team who might not win another game this year after their opener against the Bengals.

The Texans are without Nico Collins who heads to IR for 4 games but they do welcome back Joe Mixon who looked great in the opener this year before missing the last month with an ankle injury. They have the talent to overcome the loss of the leading WR in the league with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell able to step up and it probably means a bit more for Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson, although they’d like more from Dalton Schultz at TE.

The Patriots have called time on Jacoby Brissett and are throwing Drake Maye to the wolves this week behind the worst offensive line in the league, hopefully his mobility will help he stay upright and they don’t do what the Jets did to Darnold. He surely gives them more chance of winning but with the team so far away from everything they may have been better just continuing to stink. They’re without Rhamondre Stevenson so it is actually Gibson getting the start this week. Ja’Lynn Polk has looked fine in the passing game but they’re really not a good team and destined for the 1 pick this year.

Texans win and cover, Mixon scores at 11/8 (SkyBet), I like o50.5 rushing for him as well as they should dominate the game. Antonio Gibson o3.5 receptions – 13/10

Colts +2.5 @ Titans: 43

Anthony Richardson looks like he’ll be starting for the 2-3 Colts who gave the Jags their first win last weekend with Joe Flacco at QB as they face the 1-3 Titans off their bye week.

I’m not convinced Richardson starting gives them more of a chance of winning but they need to give him the go and hope he finally starts finding players in the mid-game with the ball. They’re without Jonathan Taylor but have Michael Pittman playing through injury, Josh Downs should be fine to go as well despite being listed questionable. They’ve got some good TE’s and Alec Pierce is somehow a downfield god averaging 28 yards per catch this year. Trey Sermon fills in at RB.

The Titans aren’t fun to watch and Will Levis probably isn’t the future but he makes things interesting at least. Tony Pollard has cemented himself the main RB in this offense with Spears on the outside looking in. Calvin Ridley looks like the leader in the passing game with Nuk Hopkins chipping in a bit as well, I don’t mind some prop bets on TE Josh Whyle who’s been getting involved in recent weeks.

Not a pretty one, but could be crazy choas. I’d be leaning to the team getting points, and sod it, over on the total. Josh Whyle o9.5 rec. yards

Buccs -3.5 @ Saints: 42

The Buccs come off 10 days rest after their TNF loss to the Falcons last week left them at 3-2, the Saints start rookie Spencer Rattler sitting at 2-3 after falling off.

The Bucs have been hard to predict but the offense has been running well on the whole with Baker Mayfield finding either Mike Evans or more recently Chris Godwin frequently and Cade Otton is doing well as the third choice in the passing game although seems to drop a lot more than he should. They’re struggling for identity on the ground with Rachaad White not doing well and Bucky Irving seemingly hit or miss as a rookie, they are splitting carries at the moment.

The Saints start their rookie QB with Derek Carr missing out and while Rattler is nearing 30 he’s inexperienced in the NFL and going up against a good Bucs run defense he may have to throw more than they’d want. Alvin Kamara has looked nearer his prime than in recent years and Rashid Shaheed has been a good deep threat for the Saints. Rattler has talked this week about getting the ball to Olave so we may see a lot of targets for him tonight.

I have to take the Bucs only giving up 3.5 against a rookie in his first start. Under makes sense on the total. Cade Otton o3.5 receptions – 10/13, Chris Olave o48.5 rec. yards – 10/11

Chargers -3 @ Broncos: 35.5

Two teams I have no grasp on this year, the Chargers are 2-2 off their bye week while the Broncos defense has them at 3-2.

The Chargers are without the Gus Bus who heads to IR, that’s fine he was a bit-part behind Dobbins anyway so it probably means more for Vidal on the ground. The passing game is a second thought but it looks like Quentin Johnston is the main man there after a rough rookie season for him and Ladd McConkey looks to be performing pretty well this year.

The Broncos are winning games mainly due to defense, but Bo Nix has looked better as the weeks go by. Courtland Sutton is top 10 in targets this season and while they’re not turning into much it’s worth noting. Behind him is a mess of Mims, Humphrey, Franklin and the running backs, not something I want to get involved in.

Two teams who are coasting to mediocrity this year. Guess I’d go Broncos at home. Vidal worth a punt at 8/1 on 888Sport.

Steelers -3 @ Raiders: 36.5

Talking of coasting to mediocrity… Steelers are 3-2 after two losses in a row, the Raiders are 2-3 after losing to the Broncos last week.

Justin Fields keeps his spot at QB with Russell Wilson backing him up for the first time this year. He’s been fine, his mobility has been key to them staying in games but will they eventually want someone to move the ball better through the air? With only one real target in George Pickens, who apparently is “open fucking always” they might be better sticking with the run heavy game and relying on defense. Jaylen Warren is back this week to help Najee Harris on the ground.

The Raiders start Aiden O’Connell tonight after the Minshew experiment failed, but it’s not good with either of them. Davante Adams is out again and Jakobi Meyers is doubtful as well, so, er… Brock Bowers? Tre Tucker and DJ Turner? It’s messy, and not very good.

The Steelers D should get them the win, I’d lean to them covering a horrible game for the neutrals.

Falcons -6 @ Panthers: 46.5

The Falcons have had 10 days rest off of their overtime win against the Bucs where Kirk Cousins threw for over 500 yards while the Panthers got Bryce Young back on the field last week as Andy Dalton stuttered in their loss to the Bears.

The Falcons are looking better by the week as Cousins settles into the offense, he’s finding Drake London more and even Kyle Pitts did something last time out. Darnell Mooney is somehow relevant which is nice for him, but they’d probably still want more from Bijan Robinson on the ground and through the air, he’s obviously talented but needs more of the ball.

The Panthers are who they are, they’re not a good team but at least have a couple of players with relevance with Dalton at QB, Chuba Hubbard has run well and Diontae Johnson will get a lot of targets. I like the look of Xavier Legette but it’s tough for any pass-catcher to show up with the talent at QB.

Falcons should win and cover, but divisional games can be weird. Decent odds on Allgeier o1.5 recs – 27/20.

Lions -3 @ Cowboys: 52.5

The Lions have carried on from last season and come in at 3-1 off their bye week, Jared Goff had a literally perfect game in their last match against the the Seahawks, 18 from 18 and a receiving TD. The Cowboys aren’t pretty at the moment, yet have a positive record at 3-2.

David Montgomery signed a tidy extension this weekend to keep him and Gibbs together at RB for the next few years at least, Monty has scored in every game this year and Gibbs also has 4 on the season as they’ve been great on the ground. The passing game hasn’t had to be dominant but Goff has done what he needs with Amon-Ra St. Brown back to his usual 6 or 7 receptions a game and Jameson Williams continues to catch deep shots on a weekly basis. They’d probably want Sam LaPorta to get back to his form of last season but I’m sure that will come.

The Cowboys have CeeDee Lamb, and that’s about it. The run game is poor whether it’s Dowdle or Elliott and behind Lamb in the passing game they’re looking at Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert to do a bit. They’ve beaten some horrible offenses and been smashed by anyone half good this year.

Lions win and cover, over on the high total. Jameson Williams longest reception o21.5 seems stupid not to go for that these days. TD scorer odds are crap.

Bengals -3.5 @ Giants: 47

Imagine being at 1-4 and having an MVP candidate at QB, that’s the Bengals coming off an overtime loss against the Ravens. The Giants are 2-3 after a shock win in Seattle last weekend.

The Bengals offense is as good as it has been since Burrow came into the league, he’s getting time to throw and he’s killing teams. Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins are showing they deserved the contracts they didn’t get from the Bengals and Erick All is looking a nice pickup at TE for them. Andrei Iosivas will add in when needed and Mike Gesicki got some nice catches last weekend as well. Their run game is looking great too with Chase Brown and Zack Moss running well. Their defense though is shambolic and could be even worse with Dax Hill now out.

The Giants are up-and-down but got it done without Devin Singletary and Malik Nabers last weekend, something they’ll have to do this week with both missing out again. Tyrone Tracy ran well and Darius Slayton stepped up as he tends to do when required, I’m amazed they don’t use him more. Wan’Dale Robinson has a few amazing stat-lines this year, averaging 7.2 yards per catch is quite something for a WR but he’s tied 4th in receptions and will likely get the ball a lot tonight. Slayton is the downfield threat and should do well against a poor Bengals secondary.

Bengals should win and cover but I’ve said that a lot this year and they’ve let me down. The Giants at 4-0 against the Bengals in NY. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them make that 5.

A lot of props I like here though, should be a high-yardage affair and the Giants’ shallow offense should help – Darius Slayton longest reception o20.5, Wan’Dale Robinson o5.5 receptions, Tee Higgins o4.5 receptions, Chase Brown longest rush o13.5 yards. Basically I think there will be a lot of explosive plays.