A fun weekend in the NFL last week and one where favourites went 12-2 straight up and 11-3 against the spread, with road favourites going an impressive 9-0 ATS, and it looks like things have corrected from the slow offensive starts to the season as overs were heavily on top last weekend as well.
Still a couple of unbeaten teams as the Vikings and Chiefs were on bye last week, they come into this week with the best games on the slate though as the Vikings play the Lions and the Cheifs travel to the bay to take on the 49ers as the two lowest priced teams for the Super Bowl this year, and kindly they’ve split the games for us as well with the NFC North clash at 6pm and the 49ers at 925 GMT. Noice.
Looks like the recommendations on here went well too, Ertz got his receptions, Mixon scored (twice), Vidal scored at a lovely 8/1, Jameson Williams of course had a 37-yarder, the Giants let me down (although Slayton had a 50-yarder pulled back) but both Bengals props hit, Chase Brown one to look at going forward.
I cashed once more on the £3 entry on FantasyGameday App, and with multiple entry points up to £25 there’s something for everyone on there now! Check it out by downloading their app and using code TDTIP when signing up for a matched entry on a contest.
Patriots +6.5 vs. Jaguars: 42
I usually do a separate London Game post, but this game doesn’t deserve it.
It’s a lot more interesting with Drake Maye under center as I feel he had quite a good debut last weekend finishing with 3 TDs and a 60% completion percentage, he also threw 2 INTs which should help points in this one. It did make some of the pass catchers possibly have some value for the first time all year… Ja’Lynn Polk hasn’t been terrible so far, Hunter Henry was always going to be important with a rookie QB and Demario Douglas and Keyshon Boutte may finally have some worth, if you’re looking at some random punts today there’s some big prices on their pass-catchers and the Jags defense isn’t good.
The Patriots looks like they’ll have Rhamondre Stevenson starting at RB after being hampered with injury in recent weeks, he is a better runner than Antonio Gibson and if he can keep hold of the ball they should be able to move the ball better with him in there, both are good catching out of the backfield as well.
The Jaguars may be leaving their head coach in London if they lose this one a week after getting humped by the Bears at Tottenham. It was a mistake-laden performance from the offense and a dismal display from their defense. I would imagine training this week has been on holding on to the ball when the QB throws it directly to you as they dropped 3 in the endzone last weekend, they were kind enough to spread the mistakes around though as Davis, Kirk and Thomas all could have scored before Gabe did get a double in the end. Brian Thomas Jnr. is the best of the 3 so far this year but all three were targeted regularly last weekend. I should probably mention Evan Engram who caught all 10 of his targets to lead the team last weekend, his rec. line is 4.5, 48.5 his yardage line, I’d go yards if I was picking one.
They will be without Travis Etienne on the ground though so that means more for Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson – I prefer Tank, but with him on kick returns he’s taken off the field more than I’d want so I may be leaning towards Johnson rush yards over Tank, although there doesn’t seem to be a line for him.
I actually like the overs here, 72 points in the Pats game last week as they gave up a 50-burger. I’d lean to the Pats getting nearly a TD now as well, I don’t rate either team but the Pats have a spark at least. Gabe Davis boosted to 7/2 anytime on PP, and you can get Kayshon Boutte at 15/2 on the same site, worth a go at bigger prices. I may put together a crazy builder on PP as they’ve got Austin Hooper in double-digits as well….It’s stupid but makes the game more interesting at least for a couple of quid.
Lions +1.5 @ Vikings: 50.5 (Sky);
What a game to start the evening, the NFC North is officially the best division since the 1970 merger as it’s the first with each team having at least 4 wins after 6 games and we may get a change at the top of it as the Lions come in at 4-1 after their stomping of the Cowboys to face the 5-0 Vikings fresh off their bye week last weekend.
The Lions have scored 99 points over their last two games against the Seahawks and the Cowboys with Goff averaging a passer rating of 154.8 (the max is 158.3 which he somehow didn’t get despite going 18/18 in the Seahawks game…) so it’s safe to say they’re coming into this one with the offense clicking rather well. Goff has always been a safe bit when he has time and is inside, and if he’s playing at 1pm then he’s even better, so things are lining up well for him in this one. They’ve got the best 1-2 punch in the league with David Montgomery celebrating his new contract with a double last week, making it 10 of the last 11 games he’s scored on the ground, and Jamhyr Gibbs who adds a little more spark and pass-catching ability to things out of the backfield, just the 4 TDs for Gibbs so far this season.
The passing game goes through Amon-Ra St. Brown as you’d expect, he’s usually good for 6 catches a game and he’ll be the man they’re looking for most often in this one, if shorter passes to him don’t work then they’ve got a great deep threat in Jameson Williams who had a long score called back last week before his 37 yard TD, his 22.8 yards average has him top 10 in the league and I’m willing to guess the players above him have only one or two catches, not 16 and 3 TDs. His longs through 5 games are 52,50,9,70 and 37, quite impressive really! Kaliff Raymond had a good game last time out, he and Tim Patrick will chip in and they’ve even got Allen Robinson on the roster now as well. They’ll probably want more from stud TE Sam LaPorta who is way down on last year’s form but maybe still working back from a knee injury he suffered late last season.
They’re also a very good defense although the loss of Aiden Hutchinson for the rest of the year with a Tibia fracture will hurt them a lot, he was leading the league in sacks and looking like a solid bet for DPOY.
The Vikings have been the surprise package of the year and the bye week may have come at the right time for them. They’ve won every game by getting out to good leads and having Brian Flores’ defense pinning it’s ears back and bringing pressure but there have been some big comebacks against them and without Aaron Jones this week the run game won’t be able to control things quite as well as they have so far.
Sam Darnold should be odds-on for CBPOY but the new rules around that suggest it should be someone returning from injury, not just from being a shit QB for a few seasons, so that’s probably wasted money at this point despite his miraculous turn of form so far this season. He’s getting protected fairly well and his mobility has been key in keeping plays alive multiple times this year, fair play to him. I’m not convinced he’ll keep it up but it’s been a heck of a start to the season for him.
It looks like Aaron Jones will miss this week with a hip injury, so they brought back Cam Akers from the Texans to backup Ty Chandler who I’d expect to get most of the carries in this one. He’s shown he can do a job but he’s not Aaron Jones. CAkers was here last season and did fine so it may be a bit more of a balanced split and it looks like Myles Gaskin is back to third choice there.
They’ve got the best WR in the league in Justin Jefferson, which helps things and the Lions will do well to cover him for the whole game, Sauce Gardner struggled with it last week and if he can’t then I don’t think anyone can. He’s scored 4 in 5 games and is in the top 10 in rec. yardage so far this season. Jordan
Addison is a good #2 for them and Jalen Nailor started the season well giving them another option in the passing game. They’ll be looking forward to getting TJ Hockenson back and he’s back in training now to be activated within the next three weeks, expect him to slot in 2nd in targets behind Jeff when he’s available.
The defense has been stellar this year as you would expect with a Brian Flores unit allowing the third fewest points per game and the second fewest rushing yards per game, an area which will be tested massively in this one especially with their star defensive-man out.
Bengals -5.5 @ Browns: 41.5;
The Bengals are trying to get back on track in division after moving to 2-4 with a hard-fought win over the Giants last Monday while the Browns look like they’re preparing for next year after a loss and trading away Amari Cooper in the week.
Bengals offensive line has been good, their defense looked a lot better last week with BJ Hill shoring up the middle of it well and that’s where the game will be decided this week with Nick Chubb back for the Browns. If they can stop the run game there’s not much else for Cleveland. Joe Burrow has looked good all year with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins moving the ball well, Chase the explosive player while Tee has been the more targeted with softer coverage. Another Chase has been doing it on the ground too with Chase Brown getting more carries as the season goes on and Zack Moss coming in for 3rd downs now as the better pass-protector, I expect that to continue with Brown the much more explosive, I don’t like his 50.5 yard line now though.
The Browns have been absolutely terrible this season as that Deshaun Watson contract looks worse and worse by the week, but they welcome back Nick Chubb for his first game since a the Steelers busted his leg, you’d imagine his workload will be light but they are desperate for a win, so who knows. D’onta Foreman is the man next in line with Jerome Ford out, and Pierre Strong should mix in too. Without Amari Cooper you’ve got to think Jerry Jeudy is the WR1 for what it’s worth, but I’d expect a jump in targets for David Njoku at TE. Myles Garrett is a beast and the matchup of him against rookie Amarius Mims will be fun to watch.
The Bengals are the better team but Joe Burrow is still yet to beat the Browns and they’ve not won in Cleveland since 2017, so I’m worried. I wouldn’t be going near them on the spread. Go under on the total. Tee Higgins o5.5 receptions – 5/4 – He’s gone over that in 3 of his 4 games this year.
Texans +3 @ Packers: 48;
The Texans have been workmanlike in their wins so far this year, only losing one game while the Packers look better by the week with Jordan Love healing from his knee injury but sit bottom of the North at 4-2 (crazy division this year)
Joe Mixon returned last week and carries on where he left off in Week 1 with a couple of scores and the loss of Nico Collins wasn’t felt too badly as Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs dealt well with the extra workload. They shared 24 of the 31 targets with Dalton Schultz against a poor Patriots defense. So, realistically it’s a shallow pool for betting purposes with a limited offense.
The Packers beat up on the Cardinals last week with Jordan Love throwing 4 TDs. They should have all three main WRs again with Jayden Reed seemingly good to go alongside Chrsitian Watson and Romeo Doubs who returned with a double last weekend. The run game goes through Josh Jacobs and has been fine so far with Emmanuel Wilson chipping in as well, and Tucker Kraft is a good TE for betting.
Should be a fun game and the 48 point total might be a little low as I’d expect offenses to be on top and the weather seems fine (always check that in GB as the season goes on). I’ll be leaning to the Texans getting points. If you want a longshot, Cade Stover looks like he’s doing all right as a rookie TE – 12/1 on PP.
Dolphins +3 @ Colts: 43.5;
It’s a stinker. The Dolphins come off their bye week with De’von Achane available, the Colts should have Anthony Richardson back but are probably a better offense without him.
The Dolphins are unbackable with whatever they’ve got at QB now and that rules out everyone in the passing game as it just doesn’t work. Achane gives them Ahance at least, and in fairness Jaylen Wright ran the ball well when he was needed last time out.
The Colts are the better team even with Richardson in there, if he can figure out a bit of touch on his passes then they’ll be functional. Josh Downs seems fine to go although I prefer him with Flacco in there. Alec Pierce has a 28.3 yard average reception this year and 3 TDs, he’s going for 120 and a score or 0 and 0. They’re without Jonathan Taylor again so it’s Trey Sermon and preferably Tyler Goodson on the ground.
One the neutrals will be avoiding. Have to take the Colts and under with the way the Dolphins have played since Tua went out. Tyler Goodson o29.5 rush yards. The fact the receptions lines are so low for the Colts shows how poor their offense has been, Downs at 4.5 and Pittman at 3.5, everyone else 1.5 is just horrible.
Eagles -3 @ Giants: 42.5;
The Eagles looked a lot better with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back, the Giants were a bit unlucky with big plays called back as they lost to the Bengals.
Jalen Hurts has his boys back and he looked a lot better, but he’s lost Dallas Goedert this week so I’ll be looking at the backup at TE for some props. We know AJB and Smith will get most of the targets and yards, and probably TDs, but there’s no value there. Saquon Barkley is frustrating and I won’t be betting him to score, he’s either 2 TDs or nothing.
The Giants have Malik Nabers back so I’d imagine will be back to 15 targets for him, 10 for Wan’Dale and not much for anyone else despite Darius Slayton looking good. They should have Singletary back one the ground but he should be backup for Tyrone Tracy who has run well in his place.
I like the Ealgles to win and cover a low-scoring game. Grant Calcaterra o2.5 receptions – 20/27 and TD – 11/2 on Skybet and PP, Tyrone Tracy o32.5 rush yards. I may double up Tracy and Grant on PP with the best odds available over here.
Seahawks +3 @ Falcons: 52.5;
Should be a fun one, the total is up 2 points since Thursday night. The Seahawks lost to the 49ers on TNF last week, the Falcons beat the Panthers. The @ATLFalconsUK guys are at the game tonight, and look to have picked a good one. A lot of respect for how they’ve grown that group in the past few years.
Kenneth Walker popped up on Saturday with an illness so keep an eye for his availability, I’d assuming he’ll play but who knows. If not Zach Charbonnet will get the look on the ground. The passing game has been fine, DK Metcalf had a long TD called back last weekend, he’s still the one to look for there, but Tyler Lockett and JSN seem to share the load behind him and Noah Fant is increasingly involved at TE for them.
The Falcons have got things going as Kirk Cousins gets better by the week and they’ve got probably the second best 1-2 on the ground with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, both scored in last weeks rout and will probably share the work again in this one. Drake London always had the potential but that’s coming to the fore with Cousins locking in on his favourite target. He has 33% target share last week and has been targeted on 42% of his redzone routes, the highest in the league. Darnell Mooney has had big games as second fiddle and Kyle Pitts is still there too.
I like the Falcons to win this one, hopefully in a shoot out. Drake London – 6/5 is my favourite TD scorer of the weekend above evens, so I’ll have to put him in here too.
Titans +9.5 @ Bills: 41;
The Titans lost another close one last week as their offense has been inept, magically Will Levis is “injured” this week so they’re moving to the dent-headed Mason Rudolph in the hope of having a mildly functional offense. The Bills won on Monday night against the NY Rodgers’.
Tony Pollard has run remarkably well behind a poor offensive line and has been the only way they’ve moved the ball this year so far. The passing game should be fine with adequate play so there’s hope for Ridley, Hopkins and Tyler Boyd this week. Backup QBs though tend to favour the guys they’ve been training with so there could be some random big games for players we’re not used to seeing, Westbrook-Ikhene scored their one TD last weekend, and we might see some Treylon Burks and Josh Whyle, who knows.
Should be a walkover for the Bills who beat up on worse teams in the league. They traded for Amari Cooper this week to help their shallow passing game, he will probably go straight in as the one, but has only had a few days with the playbook. Khalil Shakir has done well moving the ball for them but they’ll want more from Keon Coleman and the rest of the passing game. The run game has been good for them though, James Cook returns but Ray Davis did well without him there last week so expect them to lean on that for the most part still.
Bills should win, and will likely do it easily but I do rate the Titans defense so I’m staying away from that big spread. Lean over on the total as it’s a low one, but no bet. Josh Whyle – 16/1 (PaddyPower) – My last shot on Whyle this week, he’s a big lad.
Panthers +9.5 @ Commanders: 51.5;
The Panthers had their bounce with Dalton, now they’re poo again. The Commanders should bounce back from defeat to the Ravens last week, this line has gone from 8 to 9.5 since Thursday.
Not much to mention for the Panthers, Dalton is mediocre, we knew that all along. Chuba Hubbard has been fine and Diontate Johnson has benefitted from Dalton being there. I like Xavier Legette, if they could get good QB play they’ve got a guy there. Rookie TE Ja’tavion Sanders has been more involved recently.
The Commies weren’t far off a comeback last week and it should just be a blip on an otherwise very good start to the year. They should have Brian Robinson back in the backfield and Austin Ekeler looks revived this year. Terry McLaurin scored a couple on minimal yardage last weekend and Zach Ertz is proving vital to moving the ball. Noah Brown is decent enough as the WR2 and they seem to like Zaccheaus on 3rd downs.
Commanders should win and do it easily, but I’m not taking 9.5 points on them. Zach Ertz o3.5 receptions – 5/4, 8/11 on Bri Rob is a touch low, maybe put him with someone else though, he should score.
Raiders +6.5 @ Rams: 43.5;
Meh, the Raiders. Meh, the Rams. Two teams who it’s tough to find interest in this year, the Raiders traded away Davante Adams this week, the Rams should have Kupp back.
The trading of Adams doesn’t change much on their near unwatchable offense as he wasn’t playing anyway, but it means we know that it’s mainly Brock Bowers and nothing much else. Alexander Mattison should have the lead role on the ground even if Zamir White returns, but that’s not a good thing. Meh, I say. MEH.
The Rams having Cooper Kupp back should give them a huge boost This is why I do my previews on a Sunday morning, it looks like he’s now “unlikely to play” – which is annoying… It’s been Kyren Williams and not much else with him and Puka out of the lineup. They may have found a player in Jordan Whittington who has had a lot of targets and Tutu Atwell has shown he’s more than just a deep shot player.
Rams win and probably cover, nothing else on this. Kyren should score but at 8/15 it’s unbackable.
Chiefs +1.5 @ 49ers: 47 (Sky);
The league continues to be infatuated with Taylor Swift and the Chiefs and have this as the sole 2125 game this week. The Chiefs are immense off of extended rest and come into this one unbeaten. The 49ers have had 10 days rest after their TNF win against the Seahawks.
The Chiefs have been a defense-led teams for the last 20 games or so and with the injuries on offense that is enhanced this season as Mahomes is down to just Travis Kelce in the passing game from his top 3 or 4 targets coming into the year. Obviously that’s been enough against middling teams so far as having the best QB of the last decade is a pretty big advantage. Juju Smith-Schuster had a big game last time they stepped on the field and should be fine to go after a knock. Behind him they’re relying on Mecole Hardman again which isn’t a good place to be. The run game should be 20+ touches for Kareem Hunt with CEH backing him up after returning to the team.
The 49ers have been tough to predict without CMC this year, although they’ve run the ball well with Jordan Mason who looks like he’s fine to play after injury during the game last week. They are at without Juaun Jennings in the passing game but Ricky Pearsall comes in for his debut after having a bullet through him in pre-season. Deebo Samuel probably leads them in the passing game but they really need to start getting something from Aiyuk as his poor season continues. Brock Purdy is a fine QB, he’s mobile and accurate on the run but I don’t think he’s got enough to beat the best teams and that might be the case here.
The Chiefs defense hasn’t allowed a 50-yard rusher this year, the 49ers have had someone with at least 70-yards on the ground in each game, there’s the key. If the 49ers can’t move it there then they’re fucked. I’ll be taking the best QB we’ve seen getting points. Thanks.
Jets -2 @ Steelers: 39;
The NY Rodgers’ lost their first game after he sacked Robert Salah on Monday night and now face one of the best defenses in the league. The Steelers make a QB change despite a 30-point game in their win over the Raiders last week.
I couldn’t care less about this game (that’s right Americans… COULDN’T, not COULD) – I hate Aaron Rodgers, I hate the Steelers. Davante Adams comes in this week giving the media more chance to push their pro-NY agenda on us all. It should help the offense as Rodgers loves his mates, but will it cause tension between Lazard and Rodgers? Personally, I’m looking forward to Jordy Nelson rocking up at the stadium next weekend. Breece Hall ran the ball well on Monday for the first time this year, which could be big for them going forward. Have to expect Adams leading them in targets, but it’s a watching (checking the box score in the morning) brief on that front for me this week. The defense was fine despite losing one of the best defensive coaches in the league.
The Steelers are giving Russell Wilson the start despite sitting at 4-2. It’s risky as they were at least winning games with Justin Fields but it wasn’t a pro offense and the passing game was a disaster, I guess they’ve got to try and keep George Pickens sane before he murders someone there. Pat Friermuth gets a bump with what should be an improved passing game. Najee Harris has been running well and Jaylen Warren returned last weekend as well, but without as mobile a QB will that continue?
A 3-3 tie with TJ Watt injuring himself snapping Rodgers in half would cheer me up. Realistically I don’t see how the Jets are faves for this one so have to lean to the Steelers and under.
Ravens -3.5 @ Buccaneers: 49.5;
Chargers -2 @ Cardinals: 44.5.
Two Monday night games again this week, I like over in the Buccs and Ravens game and the Ravens covering. It looks like Mike Evans may miss out which is big for the Buccs offense and the 3-headed backfield makes betting on that area impossible. The other one I couldn’t give a toss about. Herbert over on his passing yards I guess, maybe Murray will put a full game together?
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