Week 8; …It’s Week 8.

Remember we’re at 5 O’clock kick-offs for this week only before the Yanks put their clocks back next weekend, which means the main slate finishes before midnight this week! Woohoo! Not quite as tired at work tomorrow morning!

We’re down to just one unbeaten team now with the Vikings losing not once, but twice since last weekend as they fell to the Lions on Sunday and the Rams on Thursday after an inexplicably missed facemask grab hauled Sam Darnold to the ground. They still needed 8 points in 1:50 but the game was taken from them. So we’re left with just the Chiefs unbeaten and looking at their schedule it now wouldn’t be too big a shock to see them going 17-0. The Bills look like the best team they’ve got left to play although the Broncos and Steelers defenses would at least probably keep things close.

It looks like the bookies have decided who are good and who are shit this year and the shit teams seem shitter than usual. There is a full slate of games this week with no teams on Bye and 10 of the 14 today have favourites over a field goal, with a couple of double-digit faves on the board as well.

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Eagles +2.5 @ Bengals: 48 (Sky);

The early Sky game is one I’m most interested in as my Bengals host the Eagles. Weirdly both teams have played the same two teams over the last two games so we’ve got some good comparison points and both are remarkably similar, the Bengals are 38-21 over the two, the Eagles 48-19, with defenses for both teams looking markedly improved, but the Browns and Giants may be two of the worst five offenses in the league. It’s a mirage!

The Eagles went 1 for 13 on 3rd downs last weekend against the Giants, but were 4-4 on 4th downs thanks to the tush-push which gave Jalen Hurts a couple of TDs on the ground and looks like it’s getting back to the effectiveness it had last season. It’s been a weird year for Hurts, he’s got his stars back now but his passing has been rough and he makes a lot of mistakes, thankfully for them they don’t need to rely on him now with Saquon Barkley at RB. He’s run up 658 yards already this year and added another 100 through the air as he looks back to his pre-injury form and he should be able to move the ball well today as well. The passing game should get a bump in this matchup too as the Bengals don’t have many big-bodied CBs who can matchup with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith’s quickness should get him open as well. They are without Dallas Goedert again so Grant Calcaterra will get the targets at TE.

It looks like the Bengals may be without Tee Higgins for this one after he “developed a quad injury” on Friday, we’ve seen him with minor strains before and it’s not good. If he does play I don’t expect he’ll make it through the first quarter, which is a hit for them as he’s been very reliable in the short game. If he does miss out then Andrei Iosivas will have to step up once more, as he has done most of the year. Ja’marr Chase leads the league in most stats this year and if Burrow can connect with him more than 6 or 7 times then they may well go on to win this one. The fans want more screen passes to Chase Brown who is very explosive and has taken the lead in the run game now with Zack Moss mainly in on third downs for added pass-pro.

This should be a fun game, I’m going to be leaning to the Eagles, but I like the over, I don’t think either defense is that good still and the offense should be on top. Tee Higgins u69.5 (365) – If he doesn’t play it’s void, if he hits the field I don’t think he finishes the game.

Cardinals +4.5 @ Dolphins: 46.5;

I have no idea how to judge the Cardinals on a weekly basis so I won’t be saying much about them here. They have a solid run game with James Conner and a good young WR with Marv Harrison but they’re reliant on Murray having a good game and I can’t ever predict that happening.

The main thing about this game is the Dolphins who have Tua Tagovailoa back from yet another horrible looking concussion, he just won’t do what most of us want and retire. That should rejuvenate a hideous offense so we’re going to have to expect Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and the likes of De’von Achane to put up some yards again. I don’t think the Jonnu Smith experience will continue after his big game last weekend, but we’ll see.

Have to lean to the Dolphins with Tua back, but I’m staying away from this one.

Falcons -2.5 @ Buccs: 45.5;

A divisional game that’s, unfortunately for neutrals, has been hit by injuries to the home side as the Buccs are without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Falcons should strengthen their spot at the top here. The first game between these two was a 36-30 win for the Falcons with Cousins hitting 500 yards.

The Falcons are coming in quite healthy and seem to have got Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts doing things finally. They were stuffed by the Seahawks last weekend and will look to bounce back in this one. Drake London found the endzone again though and his connection with Kirk Cousins remains the strong point of the passing game. Tyler Allgeier will continue to get the ball on the ground and Darnell Mooney will probably be third in targets. Their defense is fine.

The Buccs will likely have to run the ball more with their triple-headed rushing attack of Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker (probably in that order) and White will probably be the one stepping up to help the passing game as well where they’re relying on Sterling Shepard, Trey Palmer and rookie Jalen McMillan… It’s not great. It may well mean more for Cade Otten at TE as well who finished with 100 yards last weekend, but it was White who got the receiving TDs.

Falcons should win and cover against a beaten up Bucs. The Bucs do have a good run defense though so I think it will be more through the air, I like Kirk Cousins o240.5 passing yards.

Ravens -8.5 @ Browns: 44.5;

The Ravens go from strength-to-strength with the best running game in the league while the Browns received an unexpected bump as Deshaun Watson snapped his Achilles last week and went down for the season.

Derrick Henry is unstoppable with over 200 yards more rushing than anyone else in the league this year and a TD in every game this year, it’s safe to say the move to bring him in could be a one of the best in recent years. It’s helped him and Lamar Jackson who looks like he’s on for another MVP award this season, he threw for 5 TDs last weekend and that was without his main man Zay Flowers who left early but looks likely to play in this one. The WR corps isn’t laden with talent but they are able to get open and Lamar is finding them this year. Rashod Bateman has been scoring, they’ve got Mark Andrews back into the game after a quiet start to the year and even the likes of Nelson Agholor could have value on a weekly basis. I like Justice Hill this week out of the backfield as well, his time may be up soon though with Keaton Mitchell coming back.

The Browns haven’t hit 20 points this year, but this could be the week against a pass-funnel defense with a QB who WILL throw the ball regardless of whether his players are open or not. Jameis Winston finished the game last weekend and found David Njoku for a score, I think their offense could be a lot better with him in there. Nick Chubb was back from injury last week and will be more assured after getting through the game without injury which should help the run game. They don’t have much on offense so it will be a tight offense. Expect Njoku to leads in targets, Cedric Tillman behind him and maybe Jerry Jeudy might remember how to play football?

I love the overs in this one. Jameis will either throw 3 TDs, or 3 INTs… maybe both, either way it leads to scoring. Daivd Njoku and Mark Andrews both to score – 14/1 (Skybet)

Packers -4 @ Jaguars: 49.5;

The Packers are road favourites here against a Jags team coming off a win in London who decided not to take their bye this week, so it’s the home team who have had further to travel this weekend.

Josh Jacobs had his first ever receiving TD last week after 211 catches without one as they beat the Texans with a defensive masterclass allowing CJ Stroud to throw for just 86 yards. Jacobs is a top 10 back in the league and did enough for them to get the win, he now sits 4th in rushing yards on the season and the clear #1 in this backfield. They’ve got a great trio of WRs as well with Reed, Watson and Doubs and Jordan Love is a good enough QB to find the open one, add to that Tucker Kraft and TE and it’s a very good offense to go along with a good defense.

The Jags beat the Patriots last weekend after dropping 10 points down to show they still have a bit of spirit left there. Trevor Lawrence has actually played quite well recently and has formed a good connection with Brian Thomas who had a score last weekend and looks like the best target for them at the moment. Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis have also seen an up-tick in form in recent weeks. I think Travis Etienne misses out again so Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson will get the ball on the ground with Ja’mycal Hasty mixing in as well. Tank is arguably a better back this year than Etienne so it could be good for them.

Likely to be a close one, but I do like the Packers to win and cover, lean under on a quite high total.

Colts +4.5 @ Texans: 45.5;

A rematch of week one where the Texans won 29-27. The Colts won a horrible game last weekend, the Texans lost to the Packers but still top the division.

Anthony Richardson can’t throw the ball. A sub 50% completion percentage must be one of the worst ever after 5 games in a season, and his decision making of when to run seems horrible as well, but thankfully for the Colts Jonathan Taylor is back and having both of them in the backfield makes a big difference for this offense. The receivers are pretty much irrelevant, although Alec Pierce will either have nothing or 3 receptions for 130 yards.

The Texans have struggled a bit without Nico Collins but should get more than nothing from Tank Dell as the second-fiddle to Stefon Diggs. They have been getting work from Dalton Schultz but the run game has been their main focus with Joe Mixon back to his best behind a good offensive line. He might not have the top-end speed to get away from players but he can break long runs still, he’s topped 100 yards in every game he’s finished this year and has 5 TDs in 4 games.

I’ve no idea here really. Texans should win, but divisional games are always tight and Taylor coming back means I think I’d lean to the Colts getting the points. Obviously Mixon should score, but a best price of 4/6 isn’t hackable for me. JT is evens. I’d have a bet on him, Anthony Richardson’s passing TD line is 0.5… even though I think he’s terrible, over at 1/2 seems fine.

Jets -7 @ Patriots: 41;

The Jets lost again last weekend as did the Patriots, who looks like their only win this year will have been in the opening game of the season.

Davante Adams is back with Aaron Rodgers and it looks like that means nothing with them both now a little older. They hilariously lost once more with Rodgers throwing another 2 interceptions. Amazing stuff. They did however manage to get the run-game going with Breece Hall topping 100 yards in their last match, that should help them in the long-run.

The Patriots started well last week with Drake Maye before they realised they were the Patriots and they got run all over as the Jags took the game away from them. The passing game does have a little more life but they need Rhamondre Stevenson to get healthy and the offensive and defensive lines to actually do something.

Not a game I’ll be paying much attention to, but even I don’t think the Pats can pull off the shock here. As much as I dislike and don’t rate Rodgers I think their defense will help the Jets cover the spread. Lean under. Some big odds on Pats TD scorers again, well done if you manage to pick one.

Titans +11.5 @ Lions: 45;

The Titans lost again and traded away Deandre Hopkins this week, the Lions handed the Vikings their first defeat.

Mason Rudolph at least completed some passes in replacement of Will Levis last weekend but they probably don’t want him throwing 40 times a game. Tyler Boyd probably gets more targets without Nuk and Calvin Ridley has the opportunity to really step up now, he led in targets last week but only caught 3 of 9 of them. Tony Pollard has run pretty well as the only real highlight of the offense. They do generally have a good defense, especially against the run but they must be getting tired by now.

The Lions are the best offense in the NFC and I don’t see that slowing down too much here. The run game is one of the best in the league and the passing game has been near perfect over the last month with Jared Goff hitting 140 QBR for three games in a row. Gibbs and Montgomery will still get the job done, and near evens for Gibbs is probably my bet in this one. The passing game is mainly Amon-Ra St. Brown, they would probably want more from Sam LaPorta who has had a quiet year so far and they’re without Jameson Williams this week so expect more for Kaliff Raymond in his place.

Lions win, can I take them to cover 11.5? Probably not. Kaliff Raymond o22.5 rec. yards. Gibbs anytime 4/5.

Bills -3 @ Seahawks: 45.5;

This should be a fun one, both won easily last week, the Bills over the Titans and the Seahawks over the Falcons.

Are the Seahawks a good team? I have a theory that the Bills are flat-track bullies and can’t do it against good teams, so that’s a big question. Josh Allen is playing well this year and the run game looks good with James Cook. They have had Amari Cooper for a full week of training after he scored on debut last weekend and that seemed to open up things for rookie Keon Coleman too who had his best week of the season. Khalili Shakir is reliable in the short game and they’ve got a good duo of TEs as well. It’s a well-rounded offense.

The Seahawks look like they’ll be without DK Metcalf with a knee injury so it will be more on Lockett, JSN and Noah Fant in the passing game although I may have a nibble on Jake Bobo who has filled in well for Metcalf when required in his time. Kenneth Walker is looking like one of the best RBs in the league this year and will get a lot of the workload on the ground.

I want to lean Seahawks but realistically I think the Bills win this one. Dawson Knox – 7/1 (PaddyPower)

Saints +7 @ Chargers: 41;

Spencer Rattler against one of the best defenses in the league? Yikes.

The Saints welcome back Chris Olave and are probably a week away from having Derek Carr back in at QB for them, so could do with just having a game without someone leaving with a serious injury. Alvin Kamara has done all he can but the passing game will always struggle with this rookie QB under center. I would be leaning under on Chris Olave yards in his return from concussion.

The Chargers are boring, Justin Herbert throw for nearly 350 yards last week and they only put up 15 points. Against the Cardinals. Meh. JK Dobbins has run well all year and the Saints defense is very leaky. Ladd McConkey looks fine and they should have Quentin Johnston back for this one which should help things.

I don’t care. Probably lean to the Saints covering a low-scoring game.

Panthers +11 @ Broncos: 41.5;

The Panthers have Bryce Young back at QB. The Broncos are 11-point faves. That’s insane.

Bryce Young is playing. I won’t mention anything else about the Panthers. They are the worst team in the league by some way and look like they’ll be the 1 pick once more.

Bo Nix is fun to watch, you never really know what’s going to happen, he’s got average WRs and it seems impossible to figure who will get the ball each week as Courtland Sutton goose-egged last weekend. The run game though looks like it goes through Javonte Williams who has been up-and-down in his career, they’ll use McLaughlin and Estime behind him as well as they rely on their defense to keep the opposition to nothing.

I like Audric Estime o17.5 rush yards – He’s a player I liked early on and despite him still fumbling too frequently I think they’ll be out of sight by the fourth quarter and be able to rest Javonte Williams.

Bears -1 @ Commanders: 45;

This spread relies on Jayden Daniels really. He’s a game-time decision with his rib injury, expect them to become faves if he plays.

Caleb Williams has looked far better in recent weeks and the improvement in the run game has definitely helped the team as a whole, but they’ve played some of the worst defenses in the league in their recent winning run so I’m still not fully convinced, yet. DJ Moore looks good, they find a place for Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet has popped up recently as well. Rome Odunze is the deeper threat but that makes him more volatile week-to-week. D’Andre Swift is definitely the main man on the ground and seems to get the first option at the goal-line as well with Roschon Johnson behind him.

The Commanders romped home over the Panthers last week with Marcus Mariota playing most of the game and I think they’ll be fine if he plays again. Brian Robinson is having a great year and Austin Ekeler supports him well. Zach Ertz and Terry McLaurin are good options in the passing game and Noah Brown and Dyami Brown help move the ball as well. Their defense is fine and the aggressive play-calling on offense keeps them driving more often than not.

I like the Commanders regardless of who is at QB for them. Zach Ertz o3.5 receptions – 23/20 – Give me plus money on him with Mariota or Daniels.

Chiefs -9.5 @ Raiders: 41;

The Chiefs remain unbeaten and should continue that run. The Raiders look crap and have Gardner Minshew back at QB… Interesting note, over the summer the Raiders mocked Mahomes with a Kermit puppet dressed as him, I wonder if he remembers that…

The Chiefs defense is great and Mahomes is the best QB in the league. It all leads to them winning games every week despite having great options in the passing game, so how will they look with Deandre Hopkins now in the building? He’ll have a limited workload this week but it should be third downs and redzone where he plays so taking him to score might not be stupid. Kelce looks like he won’t get back to form and the speedsters of Hardman and Worthy aren’t to be trusted. They just get the job done. Kareem Hunt got a big workload last weekend, they apparently don’t want that to continue so it could be worth a look at Steele 9/2 or Perine 13/2 at bigger odds to score.

The Raiders lost Aiden O’Connell with a thumb injury but that doesn’t really matter, he’s only got Brock Bowers to throw the ball to anyway. Alexander Mattison looks like he’s got the backfield now with Zamir White behind him. That’s about it for them.

Chiefs win, I’d take the Raiders to keep it close if it wasn’t for them mocking Mahomes. I think he may throw 4 TDs tonight to prove a point. Hopkins TD – 9/4

Cowboys +4.5 @ 49ers: 47;

The Cowboys stink, the 49ers are decimated by injury.

The worry for the Cowboys coming into the year was the lack of talent on offense and that’s proving true with Ceedee Lamb and Jake Ferguson the only players doing anything this year. They’ve scored 2 rushing TDs this year so have promoted Dalvin Cook from the practice squad, I doubt that changes much but they’ve got to do something. Lamb and Ferguson will lead them in targets with Jalen Tolbert there as the 3rd option. Other than that it’s poor and their defense has been shredded constantly this year.

The 49ers lost Aiyuk for the season last week and had nothing from Deebo with pneumonia, it looks like he’ll be playing this week so I assume he’s largely over that illness, but they’d have like Jauan Jennings to make it, but he misses out through injury meaning they’re down to rookies at WR. Ricky Pearsall, Jacob Cowing and Ronnie Bell isn’t a threesome to strike fear in opponents. Fortunately they don’t face a good defense so Brock Purdy should bounce back from his horror show last weekend and target George Kittle 10 times in this one. Jordan Mason is fine to go so expect 20 carries from him as well.

49ers should win and cover, but I’m not betting that. Kyle Juszczyk – 8/1 (PP) – Because, why the hell not.

Giants +6 @ Steelers: 36.5;

Steelers win and cover. This is an insult of a line to them. The Giants are poop with a capital P.