The second half of the season kicks off this weekend with the highlight being the NFC North clash between the Lions and Packers, a win for the Lions gives them some breathing space atop the division, a win for the Packers hands them the tie-breaker in what looks like the best division in football this year. That’s the 925 game on Sky this week after an interesting choice of the Broncos at Ravens which probably shows the level of the slate this Sunday… It’s not great.
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Broncos +9.5 @ Ravens: 46.5;
The Broncos are in a decent spot for a wildcard spot in the AFC at 5-3 while the Ravens need to keep pace with the Steelers in the North, and not losing to an inferior opponent would be a good way of doing that.
Bo Nix, might not be terrible. Sure they’ve got the 3rd best defense in the league and have had some luck along the way but Nix looks like he might have a career in the NFL and that’s better than some other young QBs in the league now. He had his best game last week against the worst team in recent history, but 3 passing TDs and a rushing one is still good. They’ve got the run game going with Javonte Williams taking the lead and Jaleel McLaughlin and rookie Audric Estime doing small amounts too. The passing game isn’t exactly littered with studs, Courtland Sutton is usually the main guy but has had zeroes this year, Lil’Jordan Humphrey has an awesome name, Marvin Mims doesn’t do much, and the TEs are mediocre. Basically, despite having a great defense I’m not entirely sure how they’re doing it.
The Ravens are stupid as well, a fantastic offense but they’ve lost to the Raiders and the Browns, both times as hefty faves. Lamar Jackson had been playing at MVP-level, Derrick Henry is still the best RB in the league and they’ve got a good run defense, but they just can’t stop the pass and that’s killing them, as well as some interesting play-calling choices later in games. They did bring in Diontae Johnson this week to add to their WR corps, and should have Keaton Mitchell to add some more pace to the run game in upcoming weeks. Zay Flowers is banged up but the TE’s have been scoring still.
I mean, the Ravens should win, but I’ve got to lean to the Broncos covering a big spread, is probably worth noting the Ravens are playing the Bengals on TNF, that’s a look-ahead spot if I ever saw one. Henry has scored every week, MAndrews has scored in their last 3 games, got to lean over on the total despite respecting the Broncos defense.
Cowboys +3 @ Falcons: 52.5;
The Cowboys are 3-4 after a loss to the 49ers, the Falcons 5-3 and top of the NFC South after beating the Bucs last weekend.
It’s been a rough year for the Cowboys as their shallow roster has killed them, turns out if teams only have to stop one guy it’s not that hard to do, although Lamb did have 2 TDs and 146 yards last weekend, fair play. They’re benching Zeke this week and promoting Dalvin Cook again, he did very little last weekend. Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert are of note but I can’t trust them each week.
Kirk Cousins loves playing the Bucs, but because he had a good game last weekend I’m worried this week, he’s a tad erratic and tough to pick on a weekly basis. They’re still splitting carries between Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier but Robinson is coming into his own recently, as is Kyle Pitts after everyone gave up on him in fantasy, of course. Drake London is looking like a stud and Darnell Mooney has proven himself a good 2nd WR.
The Falcons have dominated their division and beat the Eagles, I’m actually going to take the Cowboys, that’s worrying. Lean under on a high total. I don’t think Dalvin Cook will score, but there’s a standout 6/1 at CoraLadbrokes, most have him around 2/1.
Chargers -1 @ Browns: 42.5;
The Chargers stomped on the dismal Saints last week while the Browns got the dub against the Ravens with Jameis Winston leading them.
I struggle with the Chargers, they’re run heavy with JK Dobbins their main man and Kimani Vidal as the 2 there, but they’ve got a pretty good QB who can do it when required. Ladd McConkey had the best game of his career last week with a couple of scores, and the return of Quentin Johnston will help the offense this week. Meh, I don’t care for them.
The Browns are actually fun and acceptable to watch for the first time in a couple of years. Winston is entertaining, a mix of deep shot and terrible, terrible throws to opponents. He’s found David Njoku in both games and Cedric Tillman is a surprisingly viable fantasy option. Elijah Moore and EVEN Jerry Jeudy have been catching passes now. Nick Chubb is running well enough but this is the best defense they’ve faced in a while.
You know, I’m leaning to the Browns winning again. JK Dobbins o2.5 receptions – 10/13, annoyingly all the possible options for the Browns are around 50. I think I’d lean under 47.5 on Jeudy.
Raiders +7 @ Bengals: 45.5;
The Raiders aren’t good. The Bengals probably aren’t good either, 5 wins between them isn’t where either team wanted to be after 8 weeks.
It looks like it’s Gardner Minshew at QB again with an offense littered with stars like Tre Tucker, Zamir White and let’s not forget Harrison Bryant… In fairness Brock Bowers looks as advertised and should have a good game and Jakobi Meyers is usually solid. Alexander Mattison has been leading the line on the ground, 3 yards per rush isn’t good. Maxx Crosby and the defense will have to get the job done for them and they might just do it.
The Bengals haven’t been able to put a full game together on offense and defense, and it’s mostly been their defense letting them down as Joe Burrow leads the league on QBR and sits third in TD passes so far this year, most of them to Ja’Marr Chase who’s first in yards and TDs at this point of the season. They are without Tee Higgins and Zack Moss this week and it looks like Orlando Brown at LT, which is a big miss. Without Tee last week it was a lot more Mike Gesicki, and instead of Andrei Iosivas it was Jermaine Burton who got involved with some deeper shots.
Obviously the Bengals should win, but there’s no way in hell I’d be backing them, in fact the Raiders feel very much the correct side in this one. Jermaine Burton longest reception – o13.5, I think he scores this week, but I was hoping for more than 4/1 on him.
Dolphins +6.5 @ Bills: 49.5;
Tua is back, and the Dolphins still lost last week against the Cardinals, the Bills smashed the Seahawks in Seattle.
Are the Bills a good team? Yes. Then the Dolphins will lose.
They did look a lot better on offense last week as expected as Raheem Mostert scored twice, turns out if you get to the redzone you can use a redzone RB well. Tyreek looks back to form and it looks like everyone behind him is fairly irrelevant and tough to call.
The Bills are far more interesting, James Cook is running well, and with Amari Cooper on the team it looks like rookie Keon Coleman is showing why they draft him, nearly 200 yards in the past two weeks from 14 targets and Khalil Shakir is a solid chain-mover for them as well. The tight ends are a great duo and one of them will probably score, Knox the more fun one at 13/2 on PP.
Bills -6.5 looks good to me. 2/1 Keon Coleman (PaddyPower)
Patriots +3 @ Titans: 38.5;
The Pats aren’t good, the Titans aren’t good, the Pats at least racked up their second win last week while the Titans were killed by Kalif Raymond and the Lions return game with Mason Rudolph under center.
Drake Maye has cleared concussion protocol and will play, that makes them a lot more exciting, although the lack of talent at WR doesn’t exactly make things easy for them. Hunter Henry is reliable, Boutte has done all right with Maye, but Polk is very frustrating. Rhamondre Stevenson is still the best RB they’ve got.
Tony Pollard has looked fine at least, and with Deandre Hopkins out of the door it looks like it will be a TON of targets for Calvin Ridley each week. Nick Westbrook-Ikhene has scored both weeks with Rudolph at QB, but once more there’s not much to hang your hat on here.
I like the over. Lean Titans winning as they’re at home.
Saints -7 @ Panthers: 43.5;
Must admit I thought this line would move with the new Derek Carr was starting but I guess that was expected? Both lost last week, the Panthers are one of the worst teams in history and traded away Diontae Johnson this week.
I know Carr isn’t the best in the league but he’s a lot better than Spencer Rattler so the Saints offense should be more useful this week. Saying that Chris Olave had a big game last weekend. Alvin Kamara is still decent enough and Taysom Hill will get a few offensive snaps each game. Juwan Johnson probably becomes more useful with Carr back. Kendre Miller and Bub Means were both added to a lengthy IR-list this week.
Bryce Young plays for the Panthers, who found two rookies for TDs last week with Legette and Jalen Coker finding the endzone, maybe something there? Chuba Hubbard can have big games and this Saints defense isn’t very good.
Has to be Saints -7, do I want to risk Jalen Coker o37.5 yards? It’s a low line, but he has Bryce Young throwing the ball to him, sod it. Jalen Coker o37.5 yards.
Commanders -4 @ Giants: 44.5;
A Jayden Daniels hail mary gave the Commies the win over the Bears while the Giants lost to the Steelers on MNF.
Brian Robinson is questionable again, I’m sure he’ll play, if not then Austin Ekeler will get more on the deck. The middle of the park is the key for this Commanders offense though and Zack Ertz seems to be getting more each week, he’s still at 3.5 receptions. They’re not riddled with talent but this offense seems to work and their aggression fits the young QB, and Terry McLaurin would be a 1 on a lot of teams in this league, which helps.
The Giants aren’t good. Tyrone Tracy has come through concussion protocol though and looks like he’ll continue to lead the line, he’s done it in three games this year and looked good in each. Malik Nabers has looked very good and will get double-digit targets, Wan’Dale Robinson will hog a lot too, outside of that it’s a crap shoot and once again I’ll advocate for Darius Slayton getting more of the ball.
I’ve got to lean for the Commanders here, I’m surprised the line is this short. But I do know “pros” on the Giants, so maybe I’m missing something here. Zach Ertz o3.5 receptions.
Bears +2 @ Cardinals: 44.5;
Two teams I struggle with, the Bears were unlucky to lose at the end last week but didn’t deserve the win against the Commanders, the Cardinals overcame Tua and the Dolphins in a close one.
The Bears defense has been very good this year and the offense is definitely showing signs of improvement each week but I don’t think Caleb Williams is there yet against good defenses and that showed last weekend. It shouldn’t be an issue this week against a poor Cardinals defense but overall I’m not convinced by them yet. The run game has been going well with D’Andre Swift and they’ve a good set of pass catchers with DJ Moore, Odunze and Keenan Allen as well as tight end’s Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett, so they’ve got the pieces there and they should be fine tonight.
I can’t predict the Cardinals each week so I won’t bother trying. Kyler Murray is exciting to watch but impossible to trust, Marvin Harrison is obviously very good but with Murray it’s a rough one. Trey McBride is a good TE but they tend to go for Elijah Higgins in the redzone and James Conner continues to be reliable on the ground. I can say one thing for sure, they are a team in the NFL.
I’ll lean to the Bears as I think their defense will do enough. Elijah Higgins – 12/1 (PaddyPower) – I’ll have a punt at double-digit odds.
Jaguars +7.5 @ Eagles: 46;
The Jags were looking like they had some life, but they’ve now lost all their WRs. The Eagles won fairly comfortably in Cincinnati last week to get a grip in the NFC East.
The headline here has to be the fact that the Jags are down to scrubs at WR with Kirk done for the season, Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis both listed as questionable, it sounds like Thomas should get through but Davis a long-shot to make the field. So they may have to lean on their run game which is bolstered with Travis Etienne probably returning alongside Tank Bigsby (also on the injury report this week). Evan Engram will probably get a shit-ton of targets with Parker Washington and Tim Jones coming into the 3 WR-sets. Maybe looking for some big odds on Brenton Strange (17/2 PP) at TE as they have to move the ball somehow.
The Eagles offense was clicking against a poor Bengals defense last week, the “tush-push” was back in full force as Hurts “rushed” for 3 TDs (one was an actual rush) and threw a deep shot for Devonta Smith for a big TD for him. AJ Brown being back definitely helps and they’ll be looking forward to having a near full-strength offense next week with Goedert expected back, but he misses this week which means more for Grant Calcaterra. It will likely be 20+ rushes for Saquon Barkley though as they should be in firm control of this game from early on.
Eagles win, I won’t be taking them with the spread over 7 though. Lean under on the total with the Jags injuries hurting them. Jahan Dotson u9.5 rec. yards. He takes the field. He doesn’t touch the ball. Usually.
Lions -2.5 @ Packers: 48;
The highlight of the weekend with the Lions coming off a dominant win over the Titans and the Packers beating the Jags last week. The 6-1 Lions take on the 6-2 Packers with the winner taking control of the NFC North.
I’ll admit it, I love the Lions. Dan Campbell is very likeable and their offense is a pleasure to watch. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are the best 1-2 in the league by some way and seem unstoppable on most drives they put together last month; Jared Goff has had minimal to do but has done it very well, a 16.8 QBR last week a little harsh when he threw 3 TDs from 15 attempts, and their pass-catchers step up when required, always led by Amon-Ra St. Brown who tends to come up clutch for them. They’ll have liked getting Sam LaPorta more involved last week and they’ve not missed a beat with Kalif Raymond replacing Jameson Williams who serves the 2nd game of his suspension this week.
Without Aiden Hutchinson the defense lacks a bit of bite and that could hurt them against the Packers who are a good team but they’re well coached and will be able to stymie Jordan Love still. My one concern about the Lions tonight is that it’s one of two games they play outside this year and Goff tends to struggle in inclement weather. Rain is expected so it’s a slight knock on them, but they’ll probably just run more.
Jordan Love was a worry to miss this game with a groin injury but he’ll be playing through that, it could affect his mobility but he’s a good passer when he gets time to do it, although he has thrown quite a few interceptions this year which could hurt against better teams.
They do have a good pass-catching group with Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson at WR and Tucker Kraft earning the main TE role. It looks like it’s that order in the pecking now too with Doubs surpassing Watson after his tantrum earlier in the year. Josh Jacobs has proven a good pickup after Aaron Jones left, he’s only got 4 TDs on the season though thanks to a double last week so probably not one for your anytime accumulators. They’ll probably mix in some Bo Melton or Dontayvion Wicks in the passing game as well, but they’re actually a fairly reliable team for betting.
I like the Lions to win and cover. The weather is the only thing worrying me as I think they’re probably the best team in the league this year, lean under on the total due to that weather worry. Jahmyr Gibbs 20/21 (Betfred) not quite over even, but I’ll take whichever Lions RB is the highest each week. In fairness Monty at 10/11 on Betfred as well is fine. Jared Goff u29.5 passing attempts – He’s only topped this once in a point fest against the Bucs. I think they go run-heavy tonight.
Rams -2 @ Seahawks: 48.5;
The Rams had everyone back last week and won comfortably, the Seahawks missed DK Metcalf and he’s out again as they suffered a heavy loss to the Bills.
It was looking good for the Rams for a week with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back for them, and they should both be on the field tonight although Puka suffered a “small” knee injury in the week which has put his participation in doubt, it sounds like he’ll play. With Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Kyren Williams on the field the Rams are one of the better offenses in the league so hopefully we’ll get them all this week and see the Rams earn an important division win with all the other teams 4-4 in the West. Their defense is still shit, but we know Kyren Williams will score every single week.
Without DK Metcalf it’s a tougher task for Geno Smith and the Seahawks, sure they’ve got Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba but they lack their big-bodied receiver and I can’t trust Jake Bobo again after he failed to score last week (which would have brought in £3.5k for me), although he’ll no doubt go and score this week now. Noah Fant misses out as well, he had been important for them at TE. It will be on Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet to get things done on the ground, Walker has been very good this year and should have success. It should be said the Rams struggle against the slot so maybe Lockett or JSN will have a big game.
I like the Rams to win and cover. Under on a high total.
Colts +5.5 @ Vikings: 46.5;
Anthony Richardson could be nearing Bryce Young in terms of my respect for their ability, he’s awful. They lost last week. The Vikings have 10 days rest after their TNF loss to the Rams.
Joe Flacco gets the start for the Colts after they gave up on their young QB, he may still have a future but the head coach didn’t exactly fill anyone with confidence in that this week with his comments. Flacco being there means they may actually have a passing game at least so that’s good news for Josh Downs and Michael Pittman. They don’t have much beyond those two though, even with Flacco playing. Jonathan Taylor is one of the best RBs in the league and should find the endzone again and they’ve a trio of average giant TE’s. Josh Downs is likely to be the main man once more.
The Vikings have stumbled in recent weeks with two defeats in a row but they’re still a good team and welcoming back TJ Hockenson as TE is a big boost for a narrow-looking passing game. Giving Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison some support. Just Jeff is the best in the league and has continued to show that through the season while Addison will probably want to get more involved than he has been so far this year. Aaron Jones has been great in the run game for them and I don’t see that changing in this one as they should be in charge of the game.
Vikings win and cover. Under on the total as I think Flacco struggle against a good Vikes defense. Joe Flacco u241.5 passing yards.
Bucs +9 @ Chiefs: 46;
Bucs are killed by injuries. The Chiefs get stronger with Josh Uche coming in from the Pats. Deandre Hopkins will have an expanded role and my boy Liam Horsley is taking him to find the endzone this weekend. Juju misses out again.
Rachaad White o3.5 receptions at 10/11. Ladder him if you can – 5 at 43/20, 6 at 17/4 for him on Bet365
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