After a brief hiatus while I was recovering from walking up a bloody mountain last weekend… terrible idea, but worth it for the view from the top of Glyder Fawr and Fach in Snowdonia, and the night out afterwards, I was absent with my selections on here. Safe to assume I would have had a fantastic week, but either way I’m back this week with my selections for Week 11.
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It’s a great-looking slate this week highlighted by some important matchups in the AFC. The Steelers and Ravens are fighting for the AFC North in the early window sitting at 7-3 and 7-2 respectively while the unbeaten Chiefs are visiting NY to beat the 8-2 Bills, and even the SNF is of some import as the Chargers and Bengals are chasing a wildcard spot in a conference which isn’t quite as competitive as some may have thought.
Ravens -3 @ Steelers: 48.5 (Sky)
A titanic tussle at the top of the AFC North with the 7-3 Ravens taking on the 7-2 Steelers in a “good old fashioned AFC North clash” that the pundits get so incredibly excited about and one that the Steelers have actually dominated in recent years with 7 wins in their last 8 fixtures, usually in low-scoring games by one score, in fact the highest total between the two is 52 points, the next highest in those 8 games is 39. Tight, aggressive games which don’t usually result in points.
The Ravens have swept most before them this year with Lamar Jackson looking for his third MVP award and Derrick Henry favourite for the OPOY award as both facets of the offense are working perfectly so far. Derrick Henry has scored in every game so far this year and Lamar is just 3 yards behind Joe Burrow in terms of leading the league in passing yards, and he’s joint top in passing TDs, not bad for a running back… Zay Flowers gets most of the yardage up and down the field but Mark Andrews has recovered from a slow start to get himself in the box score 5 times in their last 5 games. Rashod Bateman is fine and the return of Keaton Mitchell to the backfield should add some more pace once he’s back up to speed.
Defensively though the Ravens are the worst passing defense in the league and that’s why we’re looking at such a high total here despite a history of low scores between these two teams, teams know they can throw all over them and that’s probably how it will go tonight.
The Steelers defense has been immense this year in helping them get to the record they’re currently sitting at now as Mike Tomlin once again puts on a coaching masterclass. Many questioned the move from Justin Fields to Russ Wilson but the offense looks far better with a QB who can actually throw the ball under center and they’ve won all 3 games with him in charge with at least 26 points in each. It’s been a great boost for George Pickens, who may well be the most easily hateable piece of shit in the league, but he’s definitely got the skills to be one of the best, a typical Steelers player in many ways. He’s scored in 2 of the 3 games with Wilson in there and had at least 74 yards in those as the most talented player on the offense. There isn’t much alongside him so they brought in Mike Williams who had 1 catch last week, it was a TD and turned out to be the game-winner as he provides a big bodied deep threat for Wilsons’ moon balls. Friermuth is fine and Calvin Austin has done a bit but it’s limited there. The run game with Najee Harris and hopefully Jaylen Warren who’s questionable tonight has been effective and done the job it needs this year.
Alex Highsmith is out for the game having injured himself on a late hit on Jayden Daniels last week which hurts their pass rush a little but TJ Watt will get home multiple times, he always does.
The one thing we can really predict here is that it will be a one-score game. It should be higher scoring than it has been historically but I don’t want to be taking over with a good defense on the field. I like the Steelers getting points at home, that’s a good spot for Mike Tomlin. Pickens anytime – 11/8, Williams anytime – 9/2 (PaddyPower). I guess if I’m picking two Steelers WRs to score I’m leaning over the total as well. Tribet – Either team to win by 7 or fewer – 4/5 (PaddyPower – all markets – tribet) if you’re feeling more confident you can get 7/4 on 5 or fewer points on Bet365 – main props.
Browns -1.5 @ Saints: 44
A big preview on the Sky game there, not so much for the rest of these… The Browns come off their bye week as favourites to a Saints team who won in division last weekend.
The Browns will be healthier and Nick Chubb will be looking to help Jameis Winston get revenge on a Saints team who let him go. The Browns need the run game going and with the offensive line getting some rest they might be able to do that. David Njoku will likely be the main target in the passing game with Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore behind him.
The Saints might have Erick McCoy back on the offensive line which would be huge for them. Derek Carr has been fine, he hit a couple of bombs to MVS last week to get them the win as he finished with 3 for 109 and 2 TDs. Alvin Kamara will appreciate a better offensive line but they don’t have a whole lot in the passing game with Olave on IR after some horrible hits.
Saints getting points at home please. Nothing on the total, could be horrible, could be randomly crazy with Winston at QB. David Njoku anytime – 12/5 (PaddyPower)
Packers -5.5 @ Bears: 40.5
The Packers look to keep pace with the Lions atop the NFC North in a divisional clash against the bumbling Bears.
The Packers have just got things done without being overly exciting. They have a good defense with Xavier McKinney leading the league with 6 INTs so far this year and they’ve got a fine offense with Josh Jacobs doing well on the ground and a good set of pass-catchers led by Jayden Reed. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson seem like 2a and 2b and Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft are good options as well.
After scoring 27 points in their last 3 games combined the Bears have fired their offensive co-ordinator as they look to get Caleb Williams back on track. I personally don’t think he’s very good but he has had some good games this year and maybe the change in coach will help him, and them. D’Andre Swift is the main man on the ground, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are a good trio in the passing game supported by Cole Kmet at TE. The main beneficiary with the new coach should be the passing game, but will it be Moore or Odunze? Both could go over their yardage but Moore probably gets the better coverage…
I don’t think things will change too much, but it’s a decent spread and the Bears D is pretty good, I’m leaning Bears getting 5.5. Over on the total – Rome Odunze o33.5 rec. yards
Colts +4 @ Jets: 43.5
Oh my. What a game. Anthony Richardson returning at QB for the Colts is the big news I guess? Flacco came in the passing game worked for a game or two but he was poor in recent games and they’ve gone back to the kid at QB. That probably kills the passing game even more but adds some rushing at least. Jonathan Taylor is the only trustable player in this one.
The Jets are dead and it’s brilliant. Fuck Aaron Rodgers. Devante Adams looks like he’ll play despite illness, but there’s nothing much I want to look at on their side of the ball either, even their defense has fallen apart since sacking Robert Salah. They’re trash and I love it.
Nothing. No thoughts on this dire, horrible excuse for a game.
Jaguars +13.5 @ Lions: 47
This one doesn’t get much better. Mac Jones looked fine in parts last week but couldn’t get the win despite his defense turning over the Vikes multiple times. There’s nothing to talk about on their side of the ball other than under on everyone I guess. Evan Engram had 8 of the 22 targets last week, but I don’t like his line at 5.5
The Lions are the best team in the NFC and should dominate this one as well as they have in all aspects of most games this season. Gibbs and Monty are great, Amon-Ra St. Brown will get most of the targets and they should be fine without Sam LaPorta who misses through injury.
Lions will win but I can’t take a spread that high (even though I lean that way), lean under on the total. Goff u230.5 passing yards – They just shouldn’t have to throw the ball at all and they’re fine with that.
Rams -4.5 @ Patriots: 43.5
The Rams faltered on offense last week settling for 5 FGs on Monday night, coming off a short week they’re crossing the country to the Patriots who look better in recent weeks.
The Rams are the better team here with a far better QB and offense in general, Puka, Cooper and Kyren are very good trio of pieces through the air and on the ground and Matthew Stafford is still a very good QB despite getting on a bit. Their defense needs to be better but they should always be putting up points.
The Pats have been better on defense in recent weeks allowing Drake Maye a bit of respite at QB. Rhamondre Stevenson is fine at RB and they still don’t have much reliability in the passing game, Hunter Henry the main target in recent weeks with Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte getting some looks as well at WR.
Rams should cover but the long road trip on a short week is a worry. Lean under on total.
Raiders +7.5 @ Dolphins: 44
The Raiders aren’t good. The Dolphins aren’t that good either, but are the better team and at home here.
Who’d have thought that Gardner Minshew or Aiden O’Connell at QB would be an issue? Minshew was dropped but forced back in after AOC did his finger, he’s been below average, but they’re stuck with it. Jakobi Meyers will probably lead them in targets with Brock Bowers just behind, there’s not much outside them. Alexander Mattison the lead back with Zamir White behind him. It’s rough.
The Dolphins look better with Tua Tagovailoa back but it’s not yet clicked as we’d have expected at the start of the year, Tyreek Hill has the speed still but hasn’t been getting much, Jaylen Waddle is hit or miss, while Jonnu Smith seems at least reliable at TE. De’Von Achane seems to be getting everything in the run game now with Raheem Mostert ditched for fumbling.
The Dolphins come home on a short week after playing last Monday and the Raiders are off a bye, so the rest disparity is huge here, but the talent disparity is as well and should even it out. I’d still be leaning the Dolphins covering but I can’t take it. Tyreek Hill anytime – 7/5 (PaddyPower)
Vikings -6 @ Titans: 39.5
The Vikings should have won by 20 last week, but Darnold had a shocker with 3 interceptions, the Titans keep having the odd good spark but without a decent QB they’re boned.
The Vikes still got the job done and are looking good in the NFC, with Aaron Jones on the ground and Justin Jefferson through the air they’ll always be close enough on offense and the defense has been playing very well this season as well. Jordan Addison will probably want to do better but TJ Hockenson is a welcome addition back to the team alongside the other TEs who also get targets.
Will Levis isn’t very good, Tony Pollard has been for most of this season though, definitely far better than I expected him to be as the main back in this offense, he missed some of last week but looks fine to play in this one. Calvin Ridley is the main (and pretty much only) man in the passing game with nearly 30 targets over the last 3 games. Nick Westbrook-Ikhene has been getting free in the redzone though and Josh Wylie finally scored after I’d tipped him a few times this season. Their defense is actually statistically one of the best in the league but they can’t cope with opposing short fields all game, every game.
Vikings win and cover. Ridley o4.5 receptions – 4/5 – He might not get the yardage against a good defense but he will probably still get the targets.
Falcons +2 @ Broncos: 44.5
Tough one to call here, the Falcons lost last week with Koo missing multiple FGs, the Broncos should have beaten the Chiefs.
The Falcons will win their division as it’s terrible and riddled with injuries, but I struggle to pick them on a weekly basis. Kirk Cousins is who he is, can have huge games, can be terrible. Drake London and Darnell Mooney are putting up yards each week and Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier get things done on the ground. The defense has been pretty good on the whole. Kyle Pitts exists too.
Maybe Sean Payton isn’t as useless as I thought he was, he’s got Bo Nix playing well and the defense was always going to be pretty good. Courtland Sutton is having a good year at WR but it’s bit-part guys behind him, good luck trying to predict if it’s Lil’Jordan Humphrey or Devaughn Vele who gets the ball. We do know it looks like Audric Estime will be the main man at RB for the rest of the year, he had 16 carries to Jaleel and Javonte having 2 and 1 respectively. Es finally Time for the rookie to shine…
I’m leaning Falcons getting points but no result would shock me here. Under on the total.
Seahawks +6.5 @ 49ers: 48
An important NFC West matchup in a surprisingly tight division. The Seahawks come off their bye week bottom at 4-5 with the 5-4 49ers welcoming back CmcC and winning last week in Tampa. This NFC West is circular, each team seems to be good against one other, the 49ers are 6-0 in the last 6 against the ‘Hawks.
Geno Smith remarkably leads the league in passing yards per game and he’ll be happy to have DK Metcalf back to help him keep that position as they enter the second half of their season. With him out Jaxon Smith-Njigba got the targets he deserves but whether they keeps up is unknown to me, they seem to prefer DK and Tyler Lockett over him which is frustrating as a fantasy owner of him. Kenneth Walker will get the majority of the touches on the ground but this is a very tough matchup for rushers and Zach Charbonnet is a good backup for him. Noah Fant still isn’t healthy.
The 49ers are getting back to health on offense with Christian McCaffrey back at RB, he was straight into things last week but was fairly ineffective as he works back to game-health, his pass-catching ability adds so much to this offense though and should give them a nice push towards winning the division. Deebo Samuel hasn’t been his usual self on the box score this year but Jauan Jennings is looking good having to step in for Brandon Aiyuk for the rest of the season. George Kittle is unlikely to play though which is a big hit as he’s been the best TE in the league this year. Ricky Pearsall scored for the first time in his career and looks like he’ll be involved a lot going forward.
Got to take the 49ers to cover the spread despite the Seahawks coming off a bye. I’ve seen a few people on the under for Kenneth Walker rush yards and that makes sense but it’s not for me. Ricky Pearsall o3.5 reception – 13/10, I think he gets more with Kittle out.
Chiefs +2.5 @ Bills: 46 (Sky)
The only 925 game this week as CBS ring-fenced it to prevent them flexing to prime-time as they surely would have done instead of the Bengals. It’s a cracker as the unbeaten Chiefs take on the 8-2 Bills in a game which could have implications in the AFC seeding come January, a win for the Bills would be huge in their quest for home-field throughout the playoffs.
The Chiefs have done it on all front this year with special teams earning the win for them last week as they blocked a last-minute field goal which would have given the Broncos the win. Of course as a Bengals fan I’m getting a little bored of them winning games they probably shouldn’t but it’s what elite teams do and there’s no doubting this is an elite team. Patrick Mahomes isn’t having a stat-based season other than the W’s but their efficiency in a lot of categories is top of the league and with Deandre Hopkins now in the team they’ve opened up things for Travis Kelce at tight end as well as adding one of the better targets in the league. They have Juju Smith-Schuster back to add to the “also-rans” behind the big two with Justin Watson and Noah Gray putting in games in recent weeks. Xavier Worthy is the deep threat and has been close a lot of times this year, once that connection clicks it will be even scarier for the rest of the AFC.
Along with Nuk Hopkins they brought in Josh Uche on defense and welcomed back Kareem Hunt to take the main load on the ground. He’ll have the backfield to himself for at least another week as they activated Isiah Pacheco but he’ll need another week before coming back into the team. KHunt has done well with it though in general with 5 TDs in 6 games meaning they have options for the first time in a few years on the ground.
The defense for the Chiefs is the main reason for their ridiculous 15 games win-streak though, they’ve not allowed an opposing team to score over 28 points in 30 games. Just a crazy impressive record. Offense wins games, defense win championships.
The Bills have scored 30 points in each of their games over the last month of the season and won all over them, their only losses so far this season have come to the Ravens and the Texans as they have pretty much wrapped up the AFC Easy already with a 5-game lead in their division.
Josh Allen is 2nd favourite for the regular season MVP and has done well without any star-studded pass catchers to get the ball to, tonight will be more of a test with Dalton Kincaid and rookie Keon Coleman missing out through injury. He can make every pass he needs and is one of the better in the league on the ground as well with 4 rushing TDs so far this season. I’ll be honest though, I don’t think he can do it in big games… prove me wrong.
The run game for the Bills has been very good this year with James Cook the main man there, supported by Ray Lewis and Ty Johnson who mix in well for them. Cook is getting the redzone carries now with rushing TDs already this year as opposed to last year where Allen took most of the work when close to the endzone.
They’ll hope to have Amari Cooper back at WR with two important pieces missing out, he’s missed the last few games with a wrist injury after being traded for, but with their bye week next week and the division sorted they may give him another week off, he’s officially questionable. Khalil Shakir has stepped up with so few other options and his completion stats put him as one of the best in the league 48 of 54 targets have been caught by him this year and he’s gone over 40 in all but one game so far. Dawson Knox gets a big bump with Kincaid missing the game, he’s always been reliable when called upon. Maybe Curtis Samuel will get a little more as he’s done nothing since coming in free agency and Mack Hollins has appeared from nowhere to look all right.
Patrick Mahomes is 12-1-1 against the spread as an Underdog in his career including wins against the Bills and that’s the way I see tonight going. I think the Chiefs win by 1-7 as they have done for most of the last 2 seasons. Lean under on the total, but it could go either way. Dawson Knox o2.5 receptions – 4/6 not the best odds but should be good.
Bengals +1.5 @ Chargers: 48
The 4-6 Bengals take on the 6-3 Chargers in a game which could be huge in the AFC Wildcard race in what should be an interesting matchup as one of the best offenses in the league takes on one of the best defenses so far this season.
The Bengals defense being atrocious has helped the offense put up some ridiculous numbers with Joe Burrow leading the league in yards and TDs thrown this season, mainly to Ja’marr Chase who leads receivers in the same categories after 264 and 3 against the Ravens last Thursday night, he’s been by some way the best in the league this season, which is nice. They welcome back Tee Higgins this week which helps the offense as whole, especially on third downs where his quick slants and strong hands are looked for a lot of the time. Chase Brown is the man at RB and his explosiveness must lead to a big TD run at some point. Mike Gesicki has been a good pickup at TE now he seems to have settled into things but he might drop off a bit with Higgins back in the lineup.
The Bengals sit on 4 wins with all of them coming against terrible teams but they’ve lost to the Ravens twice by a combined 4 points and by 1 point to the Chiefs, they’re very close to being a good team this year, they just need the defense to step up for once.
The Chargers brought in Jim Harbaugh and as expected went run heavy for most of the first two months of the season but with Justin Herbert now looking fully healthy again they’ve given him more control and their offense as a whole has looked better due to that. JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards look a good combo on the ground now that the Gus Bus has returned and they’re two guys who have played the Bengals a lot with the Ravens.
The passing game hasn’t needed to be great but Herbert is a good QB and his mobility helped them out a lot last week as he rushed 9 times for 32 and a TD. Ladd McConkey looks a good pickup with his quickness and 2nd yard Quentin Johnston has stepped up this year as well with 5 TDs including 2 games in a row. Josh Palmer appears every now and then and Hayden Hurst may get some more targets facing his former team but is behind Will Dissly in an average TE room.
The Chargers defense has been good but they’ve not really faced anyone so it’s tough to say they’re great… they will like their chances against Cody Ford at LT as Orlando Brown misses out once more for the Bengals. I’m just praying that Derwin James doesn’t head-hunt Ja’Marr Chase and we don’t lose him for any time.
Game-wise… It’s a tough one. I like the over as both teams should be able to keep up with the other. I do think the Chargers win a close one though, I won’t be backing either on the spread. Justin Herbert o246.5 passing yards
Texans -7.5 @ Cowboys: 41.5
A quick one for MNF as always. The Cowboys are utterly, dismally terrible. Cooper Rush is woeful and the coaching is abysmal. Ceedee Lamb is a late addition to the injury report, even with him it’s a complete state there, but at least the sun won’t be blinding anyone this week. Fucking idiots.
The Texans haven’t been great this year, but Joe Mixon looks very good and they welcome back Nico Collins in this one to add to Tank Dell in the passing game. Dalton Schultz faces his former team.
Texans win and cover.
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