We’ve got 6 teams on bye this week with a lot of the higher scoring offenses given the week off before we get into the Thanksgiving slate next week, so it’s not the best lineup of games this week and the injury news coming out of San Francisco has made one of the better-looking games of the day a little worse as well.
Not a tough choice for the Sky games though, the Lions are probably the best team in the league this year so I don’t begrudge having them on the early one, I’d have preferred the Cardinals and Seahawks in the late window and that games now seems like it will be more interesting than the re-match of last years NFC Champ game with Brandon Allen at QB for the Niners.
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Lions -7.5 @ Colts: 50.5 (Sky);
The Lions look like the best team in the league this year as they’ve been sweeping away everyone they’ve been up against for most of the season, putting up another 50-burger to make it 8 wins in a row last week against the terrible, terrible Jacksonville Jaguars. Of course, the one week I go under on Goff he throws his highest yardage of the season and finishes with a perfect passer rating. Safe to say he’s having fun in the offense they’ve built for him.
I have no doubt that the Lions will put up points once again with the best running back duo in the league as David Montgomery and Jamhyr Gibbs tending to split drives between themselves, Gibbs the better pass-catcher but both are very good runners behind a great offensive line. Amon-Ra St. Brown has scored in each of their 8 wins in a row with a double last weekend, Jameson Williams adds the deep threat and they’re fine whether Sam LaPorta plays or not at TE.
The defense is missing Aiden Hutchinson for the year who would undoubtedly been the favourite for DPOY had he made it through the season but it hasn’t slowed them much as they’ve been keeping things tight on that side of the ball against inferior opponents in recent weeks.
The Colts have had a rollercoaster season and brought back Anthony Richardson at QB and he had his best game of the season. He’s got all the physical traits but ZERO touch on his passes, his ridiculous arm strength somehow hindering his ability to drop 10 yard passes into his receivers hands, but he’s a good rusher and if he can make decisions better then he should be fine going forward. Josh Downs looks like the favourite target there although it’s been hit-or-miss with Richardson at QB for him, Alec Pierce will get some deep targets and Pittman is still plugging on through the season, even Adonai Mitchell finally did something in his rookie season. The run game is where they need to concentrate though with Jonathan Taylor one of the best in the league and a very mobile QB.
The Lions should win and cover. Well done to the Colts last week but this is a different beast. You can get evens on Amon-Ra St. Brown at Spreadex and Betfred, he’s 10/11 in more mainstream spots to make it 9 games in a row with a score. Jameson Williams longest reception o21.5 yards, has hit in 6 of 8 this year.
Vikings -3 @ Bears: 39.5;
An important game in the NFC North as the Vikings look to keep a wildcard spot in the NFC and the Bears look to break their losing streak which now sits at 4 in a row.
The Vikings have won 3 in a row now as they’ve swept the AFC South, and should have done it more comfortably as Darnold has faltered but they’ve got things done. They have Justin Jefferson as one of the best pass-catchers in the game, Aaron Jones who is having a good year on the ground and now TJ Hockenson looking healthier back at TE to add another option for them on offense. It’s their defense though that should be the focus here, one of the highest blitz rates in the league and full of movement they should be able to get pressure on and confuse Caleb Williams on the other side of things.
The Bears did well to win games against shit teams but against anyone half decent they’ve struggled and despite a better offensive performance with a new OC last week still only put up 19 points in a loss. DJ Moore and Rome Odunze got more of the ball and Cole Kmet should get more touches here with Keenan Allen carrying a knock. D’Andre Swift looks like he’ll play at RB, he’s been good for the most part now he’s settled into the team. They’ve a good defense as well and should be able to slow the Vikings to some extent.
The Bears were 5.5 dogs last week against the Packers, the Vikings are similar yet it’s only 3.5 here? I think the Vikings win and cover in a low-scoring affair. Jefferson and Hill both to score – 9/2 (£10 max on PaddyPower) I’ll take the boost there. Odunze o3.5 receptions – 20/27
Cowboys +10.5 @ Commanders: 45.5;
Next year is their year, right? Not a chance, the Cowboys are going to be below average for a long while now I believe. The Commanders look to keep pressure on the Eagles atop the NFC East.
Cooper Rush actually threw for a decent amount of yards last weekend but it came to nothing as fumbles and INTs cost them, but whether it’s him or Trey Lance doesn’t really matter, they’re terrible. Ceedee Lamb is a great talent but with him as the only viable target it’s not a good spot. Jake Ferguson is out for Schoonmaker probably gets more useless targets? Jalen Tolbert and Kevaontae Turpin will probably be involved. They have said Rico Dowdle is the main man at RB but that meant 10 carries for 28 yards last week. It’s wonderfully terrible in Dallas this year.
The Commanders had some questionable playcalling to blame for their one-score loss to the Eagles last weekend, but they’ve shown they can mix it with the best teams and that’s a big jump from last year. Daniels should win OROY as he leads them to their best season in a long time. Terry McLaurin was locked down last week with Austin Ekeler leading them in yards and Zach Ertz scoring against his former team proving a good pickup at TE for them. Brian Robinson has shown he’s a good running back and their defense is good enough to get them wins.
I don’t think the Cowboys score more than 17 points, the Commanders will win, should cover and I’m leaning under on the total due to the ineptness of the Cowboys. Austin Ekeler o20.5 rec yards – There will be pressure form Micah Parsons which could lead to more dump offs and he’s playing well this year.
Chiefs -11 @ Panthers: 43;
One of the best teams vs. one of the worst… I get why it’s a double-digit spread but the Chiefs don’t blow anyone out any more.
The Chiefs won’t have Isiah Pacheco back this week so it’s a final hurrah for Kareem Hunt as the main man there, he’s done well with it and kept them winning before he gets dumped to the kerb next week. The arrival of Deandre Hopkins has helped Travis Kelce in the offense as they look to get healthier for the closing stretch of the season. The defense finally gave up 30 points in a game last week but I somehow doubt that happens again.
The Panthers have Jonathon Brooks making his season debut, the 1st RB drafted this year getting over his ACL injury at last. He’ll share the load with Chuba, I’d imagine 70/30 towards the incumbent with Brooks being eased in, having a debut against the best D in the league seems a tad unfair on him. The Panthers have actually won a couple of games in a row but I can’t see how they do anything here. Ja’Tavion Sanders one to note at TE for them.
Chiefs win, I have to lean Panthers getting 11 though. Jonathon Brooks o14.5 rush yards, it’s a low line… why the heck not.
Titans +8.5 @ Texans: 41;
An AFC South mega-clash! WOOOOooooooo. Titans aren’t great, Texans get the job done.
Tony Pollard has been the one bright spot for the Titans offense this year, he’s run well. Calvin Ridley will get a lot of targets, Nick Westbrook-Ikhene has done more in recent weeks but that’s about it for the offense here. The defense has been good but they can’t hold it for a whole game by themselves.
The Texans have Nico Collins getting back up to speed, he scored on the first play last week before it was called back for a penalty as they look to get the high-powered offense of last year back on track. Joe Mixon has been brilliant as the main man behind a good offensive line and racked up a hat-trick last weekend. They’re going to win the AFC South but I’m not sure they go anywhere in the post-season as the defense seems to have dropped from last year.
Texans win, lean Titans covering a big spread. Nico Collins – 13/10 anytime (PaddyPower) – I’ll take him at decent odds.
Buccaneers -6 @ Giants: 40.5;
The Buccs should welcome back Mike Evans, the Giants get rid of Daniel Jones.
The Buccs have been mildly fun on offense this year with Baker Mayfield playing well and things could have been different for them if Godwin and Evans had made it through the year. They’ve coped well without either but will be happy with Evans returning tonight. Sterling Shepard should still keep a fair workload and Cade Otton has stepped up well with few other targets available in the passing game. The run game is congested with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White sharing the work, White is the better pass catcher though and should come to the fore against a Giants team who get a lot of pressure.
We’ve got Tommy DeVito playing tonight ahead of $5m Drew Lock at QB as they let Daniel Jones walk and test the market in a predictable but still fairly shocking move for a guy on a big contract. That rights off the offense for me in all reality. Malik Nabers is questionable as well, it could be very messy. Tyrone Tracy should get more of the ball at least.
Buccs win and cover. Rachaad White o3.5 receptions – 27/20 – One I’ve been on a lot this year with mixed results. The pressure from the Giants should mean more dump offs from Mayfield. Cade Otton 21/10 is good odds for him.
Patriots +7 @ Dolphins: 46;
The Pats look better with Drake Maye but they’re still a lower half team. The Dolphins are getting back to their old ways as they get used to having everyone back again.
Not much to comment on the Pats offense, they’ve got average players who seem to share work on a weekly basis making it tough to predict. Demario “Pop” Douglas, Keyshon Boutte, Hunter Henry and last week, Kendrick Bourne will get the looks but I can’t tell you who will each week. My lean is towards the big man with Hunter Henry fairly reliable through the season. Stevenson is fine at RB but it’s been tough sledding for him this year.
I think the Dolphins are ready to lay one on an opponent and I feel this could be the week. The Pats play a lot of man-to-man and the speed of the Dolphins should take advantage of that in a game they tend to win. Jaylen Waddle has looked good recently, Tyreek Hill has been scoring and they’ve found a TE in Jonnu Smith finally as well. They’re average on defense and that should be enough against a rookie QB.
Dolphins win and cover. Tyreek Hill anytime – 6/5 (I’ve taken the double with Just Jeff as well), Odell Beckham o1.5 receptions – 11/10 hit 3 games in a row now.
Broncos -5.5 @ Raiders: 41;
An important one for the AFC West as the Broncos are challenging the Chargers for 2nd spot. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league and will have a top 3 pick next April.
Bo Nix has been getting better by the game with his highest passer rating of the season and first 4 TD game in the NFL and he’s doing that without any elite pass-catcher although Courtland Sutton is having a good year. Behind him is muddled which is terrible for betting purposes, all the bit-part guys seemed to find the endzone last week though, Mims, Franklin and Humphrey all scoring as well as Nate Adkins. We believed that Audric Estime was going to be the man at RB but Javonte Williams got more carries last week, so we can’t even rely on that either. They have a great defense though and one that should get the job done here.
Gardner Minshew is who he is, good for a few games, but distinctly below average at QB. He has very little talent to get the ball to, and a shit run game, which doesn’t help, but still, it’s a poor showing from them this year. Brock Bowers the only one reliable on a weekly basis with his targets, he caught 13 of his 16 last weekend for 126 yards. Jakobi Meyers the 2nd option behind him.
Broncos win and cover.
49ers +2.5 @ Packers: 47.5 (Sky);
This looked like it was going to be the game of the week as the Packers try to avenge their loss in the post-season last year but injuries look like it’s ruined it a little. The 49ers are struggling this year, the Packers will be getting a wildcard spot in the NFC.
It’s Brandon Allen at QB for the 49ers as Brock Purdy misses out and they’re hurt on the defense as well with Nick Bosa out of this one. The change of QB probably means even more work for Christian McCaffrey who’s had a heavy workload since returning without doing a whole lot as he gets back up to speed, he’s actually getting to a back-able price for a TD finally at 4/5. It’s tough to tell where the passes will be aimed with a different QB there but I’d expect George Kittle to get a lot and then Juaun Jennings and Deebo Samuel behind him.
The Packers will rinse and repeat, they’ll look good on offense, Jordan Love will throw another INT giving the other team some hope, but they’re the Texans of the NFC, they’ll get the job done in a game that’s closer than it probably should be. Same as every week really. Josh Jacobs is good, Reed, Doubs, Watson will share the work through the air. Is what it is.
Packers win, I liked the 49ers getting 2.5 with Purdy but I don’t want to touch this one now. Christian McCaffrey o30.5 receiving yards.
Cardinals +1 @ Seahawks: 47.5;
A vital game in the NFC West as the top spot Cardinals travel to the tundra to take on the Seahawks who are a win behind them.
I might have to start giving the Cardinals some credit this year, they’ve won 4 in a row with Kyler Murray and James Conner running all over opponents so far, a game plan which will surely continue in this one. Marvin Harrison has shown flashes of his talent and they’ve expanded his role in the redzone finally, so it will be interesting to see how that continues to develop through the year and Trey McBride has put up some big games at TE for them as well, but there’s not a whole lot behind the studs. They’ve done well on defense with Budda Baker showing why he’s so highly regarded recently.
The Seahawks won a crucial one last week and will be hoping that’s not taken too much out of them with DK Metcalf returning in their victory over the 49ers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba got the looks again, as he should have done and maybe he’s finally broken out and earned the trust of Geno Smith who has one of the highest yards per game in the league this year. Tyler Lockett adds a decent third option and they may have Noah Fant back which would help at TE. Kenneth Walker is one of the best running backs in the league and will look to burn some clock.
I like the Seahawks in this one, but that might be my lack of respect/understanding in the Cardinals.
Eagles -3 @ Rams: 49;
A cracking looking matchup to close out the night with the Eagles looking to push for the 1 seed against a Rams team knowing they need to keep winning for the division.
The Eagles have been one of the better teams in the league over the last month as their defense has solidified and the offense is ticking with AJ Brown back in there and Saquon Barkley earning his big salary this season. Barkley is first in carries, 2nd in yards and averaging nearly 6 yards per carry which is incredible for the amount of work he’s been getting. He may well get the TDs stolen from him by Jalen Hurts who has scored in 5 games in a row now to sit on 12 for the season. It’s not been pretty for Hurts through the air for most of the year but he’s got the job done on the whole with AJB and Dallas Goedert likely doing most of the work there with Devonta Smith ruled out of this one.
The Rams won in New England last week and have the core of a challenger but while Jared Verse is up there for DROY it’s been up-and-down for them for a lot of the year. Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams represent one of the best offensive groups and they’ve been moving the ball well this year. Puka seems to get most of the yardage while Kupp got a couple of TDs last weekend. Kyren Williams has been running very well this year but seems to have lost Redzone work with Puka returning at WR for them. They’re not good on defense but that area has got better as the season has gone on.
The Eagles win and cover. Saquon Barkley o13.5 receiving yards.
Ravens -3 @ Chargers: 50;
Should be another fun one on Monday night. The Ravens pass defense is terrible, Justin Herbert is looking good and finding his guys, while on the other side of things the Ravens offense is great and the Chargers defense, while highly rated, couldn’t stop the Bengals for the second half last weekend, so there will be a ton of points in this one, right?
Yeah, go for an ambitious Bet Builder – Henry, Lamar, Johnston, Herbert all to score, should be some nice odds for a Monday night balance boost!
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