We’re already fully into the meat of Week 13 with 4 games completed already. The Lions ground out a win as the Bears lost once more in hilarious fashion, refusing to use their final time out at the end of the game and letting time run out as they were in field goal position to at least tie up the game. The monumental fuck up meant that it was 6 losses in a row for the Bears and they’ve made the move to get rid of their head coach as they look to next season with another quite high draft pick for anyone who comes in.
The Cowboys and Giants played out a mildly entertaining game even if the quality of the football wasn’t exactly stellar with Cooper Rush and Drew Lock under center, I did think the Giants would cover and we’d go over the total, but a pick 6 was enough for the Cowboys to cover the spread, although it did go quite easily over the 37.5 line.
The evening game saw the Dolphins go into the frozen tundra of Green Bay and they did as they always do in the cold, lost quite easily. I did, thankfully have the Packers as my double-point selection in the pick contest I’m in, so that was a nice one for me to wake up to on Friday morning with a fuzzy head after some Thanksgiving drinks watching the early game.
The Chiefs of course won in dreary fashion as yet another once-in-a-season event happened in their favour as the Raiders center snapped the ball before the QB expected it and they fumbled away their chance of at least tie-ing up the game at the end on Friday. The Chiefs would probably have gone 50 yards in 2 seconds to score a field goal anyway, but it was a frustrating end which secured the Chiefs a playoff spot for the 10th year in a row. @FarleyWrites summed it up well on X “Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Andy Reid is an incredible coach. The way they always find ways to win is incredible. They are so brilliant is so many ways. They are also incredibly boring to watch a lot of the time“
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And we’re on to Sunday night with a full slate of games as everyone plays before the final bye-weeks of the season next weekend. The AFC North is featured in pretty much everything on Sky this weekend with the Steelers and Bengals the early game, the game of the week Eagles v Ravens in the later slot and the Browns on MNF closing out the weekend. The 49ers and Bills is SNF football this week with Brock Purdy returning to the lineup in a match they desperately need to win.
Steelers +2.5 @ Bengals: 48;
The 8-3 Steelers look to keep their spot at the top of the division as they visit the Jungle to take on the 4-7 Bengals. A disclaimer for my obvious bias here as a Bengals fan.
The Steelers results this year have been largely built on the back of one of the best defenses in the league as they have the 3rd fewest points allowed this season with TJ Watt once again one in the talking for defensive player of the year, it’s meant the offense can make do with not being littered with stars as they only need to put up 20 points or so to win most games.
Russell Wilson has been in for 5 games now and only lost one, the second-half snow game in Cleveland last Thursday meaning they’ve had a mini-bye week to prepare for this one. He’s been efficient enough safe in the knowledge that he won’t be asked to do too much other than keep the ball safe. They’ll likely be run-heavy with some explosive shots to George Pickens, who tore the Bengals apart at the end of the season last year. Najee Harris will get the bulk of the carries on the ground with Jaylen Warren providing an alternative there having scored last weekend.
Pickens is a talented kid with a big catch radius and good speed when he gets the ball, but he does get done with OPI quite a lot as he loves to push off of defenders, he should be the favoured target for Wilson against one of the worst secondaries in the league. It’s not great behind him though but they have got work from Calvin Austin, Pat Friermuth and I guess Van Jefferson.
TJ Watt will be key for the defense and he does tend to do well against the Bengals even though teams seem to have slowed him recently, it would be typical of the Bengals to ignore what everyone else has done and leave him alone.
The Bengals come off their bye week with Orlando Brown back at Left tackle which will be a big boost, and they’ll hope that the middle of the offensive line holds up against a good pass rush. Joe Burrow is 3rd the league in passing yards this season with Ja’Marr Chase getting most of them with his explosiveness. Burrow will step into the pocket and make throws and despite going against a very good defense here he will have to throw it a lot to get the job done.
Chase Brown has cemented the main running back spot and his explosiveness has been effective this year but he probably needs to develop a more Le’veon Bell running style and bide his time a little before exploding through gaps, they do have Khalil Herbert behind him but he’s been unreliable since joining the team. It’s the passing game though that’s done most of the work this year with Chase leading in most categories and Tee Higgins a very reliable target in shorter situations. They’ll mix in 2 or 3 tight ends as well, Mike Gesicki and Tanner Hudson both proving reliable in the passing game as well.
Behind the main guys in the passing game they’ll probably have a deep shot to Jermaine Burton who’s had a rough debut season but will find the endzone eventually, he does keep getting looks and Andrei Iosivas who is often targeted in important situations.
The Bengals defense has not been good, specifically against the pass as the lack of pass rush behind league-leading Trey Hendrickson and a secondary that can’t cover players. It’s not a great situation, BUT they did stop the Chargers for most of the second half last week and you’d hope having had the bye week they’ll by coming out with some fresh looks with the season well and truly on the line this weekend.
I have nothing at all on the spread, I think the records of both teams are a little fraudulent, the Bengals should have won more, the Steelers fewer, but I do think the spread is bang on, I’d lean to the Steelers covering. I do think we’ll be under the total but I’m not stupid enough to back that either. George Pickens – 7/4 (SpreadEx) – 29/20 (CoraLadbrokes) – Far too high for Pickens to score.
Cardinals +3.5 @ Vikings: 45;
The Cards lost last weekend while the Vikings won in overtime against the Bears.
A tough game to call here, I’ve not been able to call the Cardinals all year and with their run game shut down by the Seahawks last weekend they did struggle, this week they go up against one of the few teams who’ve allowed under 1000 rushing yards this year so I think the Vikes have a good run D as well, so I’m leaning away from them this week. Kyler Murray can make magical plays, he can also make ridiculously bad decisions as well which makes them a tough team to judge. Trey McBride will likely lead in targets with Marvin Harrison the deeper threat. James Conner rush yards set under 50 yards is tempting me to go over but I don’t think I can do it.
The Vikings aren’t exactly running smoothly at the moment either, Sam Darnold is being Sam Darnold, he’s very hit-or-miss but he’ll keep taking those shots to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson who’s added a key target in the passing game since his return. They’ve been really shit rushing inside the 10 yard line but did finally get Aaron Jones in last week after he fumbled at the 1 earlier in the game. They’ll keep blitzing Kyler and that will probably be the key in this one.
Again, nothing on the spread, I’d lean the Cardinals over a field goal, and over on the total.
Texans -4 @ Jaguars: 43.5;
The Texans are still top of the AFC South but haven’t impressed this season and lost to the Titans last week despite getting turnovers on Will Levis. The Jaguars have been poor all year but should have Trevor Lawrence back in this one.
CJ Stroud has found it tough as teams seem to have figured out how to slow the offense and the line in front of him isn’t as good as last year. Nico Collins is still the main target and he finished with 97 and a TD last weekend, but they’re not getting as much as they’d want from Tank Dell this year and while Dalton Schultz can get open he’s been frustrating. They have been running the ball well until last week where Mixon averaged 1.6 yards per carry, easily his worst game of a very good season. Obviously they’re not great defensively if they give up 30 points to the Titans.
It’s been a messy season for the Jags once more, Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are both good to go here but face a tough Texans run defense and the passing game is capable and will be better with Lawrence back under center, a move which will be very useful for Evan Engram at TE and the last remaining WR Brian Thomas Jnr. at WR for them. They have been killed by injury, but they’re not very good.
I do actually like the Jags keeping it close even if they do a lot of it in garbage time. Leaning over on the total.
Colts -2.5 @ Patriots: 42.5;
The Colts… another team I can’t get right. They can beat anyone, but can lose to anyone as well depending how Richardson feels on the day. The Pats were killed in Miami last week but will be better back home.
Anthony Richardson is a terrible passer but his running ability helps him keep drives alive, and he’s been a detriment to Jonathan Taylor in recent weeks as well as he’s been putting up some terrible numbers. Josh Downs is the favoured target but he’ll be missing out this week so the passing game could well be even worse. Michael Pittman will be the main beneficiary of Downs missing and the bevy of TEs could get more as well. Alec Pierce will get some deep shots.
The Pats offense isn’t good but Drake Maye is trying his best and will find one of Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper or Keyshon Boutte for a TD, it’s just impossible to figure out which. Rhamondre Stevenson is a fine back but they’ve been trailing so much they’ve not been able to give him the ball much.
I dislike the Pats more than the Colts in terms of betting so leaning the Colts as road faves, but it could go either way. Nothing on total. Big man TD? Mo Alie-Cox – 11/1 (BetMGM, Unibet)
Chargers -1 @ Falcons: 48;
The Chargers need to keep winning for a wildcard spot, the Falcons need to get back into the W column to take the NFC South, should be a close one.
The Chargers are without JK Dobbins for at least a month as he headed to IR so they’ll likely have to throw the ball more as Gus Edwards isn’t the pass-catcher his longterm team mate is, although it could mean more for Kimani Vidal as the RB2. That is fine with us neutrals watching it as Justin Herbert will get to throw the ball more so I’m liking the over on Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston against a bottom 10 passing defense.
The Falcons could be great, they could be terrible, they’re another completely unreliable team but back home I would expect Kirk Cousins to have one of his better games, especially coming off a bye week. Drake London and Darnell Mooney have been reliable all year, Kyle Pitts is all over the place week-to-week, and Ray Ray McCloud pops up sporadically as well. They are solid on the ground with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier sharing the work there. They’re not a great defense with no pass rush.
Again, I’m struggling on the spread, like the over on the total though. Vidal 23/5? (Unibet) 9/2 (PaddyPower), Herbery o246.5 passing yards
Seahawks -1 @ Jets: 41.5;
The Seahawks won to take top spot in the NFC West last week, the Jets are a hideous collapsing mess.
Geno Smith is having a big year sitting 2nd in passing yards so far this season with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and recently Jaxon Smith-Njigba proving reliable targets for him, and it’s JSN who’s been doing it in recent weeks as he broke out with Metcalf injured. Kenneth Walker is a very good running back who should have a good game against a Jets team who struggle to complete tackles, something that should help DK as well.
Aaron Rodgers looks like he’s playing despite rumours of him heading to IR to finish out the season as his mission to destroy the NY Jets is nearly complete. They’ve been sacking people all over the shop having given their QB ultimate power and they’ve got worse through the year with a defense who looks like it’s given up. Fuck Aaron Rodgers. Oh yeah, Breece Hall is carrying a knock as well, although sounds like he’ll be playing.
Seahawks win and cover. Nothing on the total. DK Metcalf longest reception o23.5
Titans +6 @ Commanders: 44.5;
The Titans overcame a pick 6 to take home a close win last week as Will Levis showed why they’re not giving up on him quite yet, while the Commanders had an absolute shocker in their loss to the Cowboys.
The Titans defense is actually very highly rated as Jeffrey Simmons destroyed a lot of what the Texans wanted to do last weekend to earn their win, but the offense has relied on Will Levis and he’s prone to some terrible mistakes. Calvin Ridley has got a lot of the ball recently, 5 for 93 last weekend while Tyler Boyd had a good game at last well in the shorter game. Tony Pollard has had a great season on the ground, he had 119 yards last weekend and a TD.
Kliff Kingsbury offenses tend to grind to a halt in the second half of seasons and that seems to be happening here too as they’ve struggled in the past fortnight. Jayden Daniels threw 2 INTs but actually wasn’t TOO bad in the end, although a huge TD to Terry McLaurin at the end definitely helped his numbers. Terry has been his main man with Zach Ertz helping move the chains and recently they’ve used Noah Brown more as well in the passing game. They’re without Austin Ekeler he’s on IR with concussion so it’s more Brian Robinson and a mix of Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols behind him.
This feels like a trap game, everything says take the Commanders, but I’m leaning Titans, if the Commies offense has been found out then I’m not touching that side of things. Another game I like points though. Brian Robinson 1/1 (Betway) I’m fine with 5/6 at the mainstream sites though.
Rams -2.5 @ Saints: 49;
The Rams lost to the Eagles late last week while the Saints come off their bye week looking to keep pace in a poor NFC South, they’re not dead there yet having won 2 in a row.
I do like watching the Rams offense, Matthew Stafford, Kyren Wililams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua aren’t stopped by many teams so I think they’ll be fine putting up points against this Saints defense. Rinse and repeat from last weeks preview of them really, Puka is now getting most of the stuff between the 20s while Kupp tends to get more in the Redzone and I don’t see that changing really. Tutu Atwell will get the odd deep shot and Demarcus Robinson has mixed in well too.
The Saints are tough to call, Alvin Kamara is good, Derek Carr is average but they’ve got Taysom Hill and that always makes things tough for opponents, he had a career game last time out though so he’ll probably be a dud in this one. They’ll throw some deep shots to MVS who’s stepped into that Rashid Shaheed spot very well. Not that much to talk about other than that really, if Taysom has a big game they’re fine, if not, then not so much.
I like the Rams covering a high scoring affair. Cooper Kupp 13/10 (BetFred), again, fine with above evens at other spots – They’ve gone away from Kyren in the redzone so I’m shying away from him at heavy odds-on.
Buccs -6 @ Panthers: 46.5;
The Buccs dominated against a shit Giants team last week and may do the same this week despite the Panthers showing some life recently as they kept it close against the Chiefs last weekend, but everyone does against those frauds.
The Buccs run game was dominant last week with Rachaad White, Sean Tucker and seemingly their RB1 Bucky Irving all finding the endzone last weekend. It was Irving who was getting the touches when the game was still alive and he got the receptions as well in spots I’d have expected White to, so I’m thinking he’s the 1 in this one too. Rachaad White though has scored in 5 games in a row now though, so could be worth a look. The passing game welcomed back Mike Evans last week which hurt the Cade Otton revival and Sterling Shepard will probably get some looks too.
The Panthers looked good for a lot of the game last week, they knew that Chuba Hubbard wouldn’t be able to run too well against the Chiefs, but Bryce Young nearly looked like an NFL QB for once. They had Adam Thielen back, Xavier Legette is there and David Moore is apparently a good target in the redzone as he finished with the most looks in the final 20 of anyone in the league last weekend. They are now missing Ja’Tavion Sanders at TE as well as Tommy Tremble so they’re down to 3rd/4th stringers there now. Will Jonathon Brooks get more than 2 carries now? He should do.
The Bucs should win and cover, divisional games are usually tight but I like what the Bucs offense has been doing recently. I don’t want to lean over as I feel like I have done in every game so far, but I can see points here as well. Bucky Irving 11/10 (Bet365) David Moore – 9/2 (PaddyPower)
Eagles +3 @ Ravens: 51.5;
The game of the week takes place at 925 our time as two of the top 5 teams in the league face off in Baltimore with the Eagles coming off another Saquon-inspired win in LA and the Ravens beating the Chargers in the same stadium on Monday night to keep pace at the top of their division.
To me I think the Eagles are the 2nd best team in the league at the moment behind the Lions. They’ve solidified their defense in all areas and they’ve figured that giving the ball to Saquon Barkley behind a very good offensive line is an easy way to put up points in games. Jalen Hurts didn’t rush for a TD last week for the first time in 6 games and he only threw 1 TD as Saquon did all the damage against the Rams last weekend, but he has been playing well and has kept the ball safe with only 1 INT in the last 2 months after a poor start to the season. He should have Devonta Smith back here which will add some depth behind AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert who are the only reliable targets in the passing game. AJ Brown has the size and speed to take the ball in from anywhere and should do well in a very good matchup for the passing game.
Saquon Barkley should probably have his own section 1st in carries, 1st in yards and a ridiculous 6.2 yards per carry which is incredible for someone with the amount of carries he has this year and he’s been doing it in the passing game as well adding another 257 yards there including 4 for 47 as he topped 300 yards by himself last weekend, he was good at the Giants, he’s even better in a good team. Behind him Kenneth Gainwell is decent enough too but the only thing stopping Saquon is the tush-push from the one yard line stealing TDs from him.
The Ravens finally have their bye next week and would love to get the win to have the chance of going into that as the top team in the AFC North although that depends on the Steelers game earlier. Lamar Jackson has played at MVP level for the third year in a row with his rushing and passing ability getting things done on a weekly basis and they have done well against better teams this season. He leads the league in passing yards so far, is top in QBR and tied 1st in TDs thrown this season, add to that nearly 600 yards on the ground already and it’s clear why he’s so highly thought of.
Derrick Henry didn’t score a TD last weekend! It was the first time this season he’s not found the endzone although he did put up 140 rushing yards to take him to 1325 on the year, just 67 behind Saquon, although Henry leads in TDs and is just a scooch behind in average at 6 ypc. It’s fair to say we’ve got the two best in the league on the field tonight. Justice Hill scored a long TD last week and they’ve yet to get Keaton Mitchell involved again after he came back from an ACL injury.
Zay Flowers has had some huge games in the passing game, but will he get Quinyon Mitchell this week? The CB is in the running for DROY having locked down most he’s come up against this season. Mark Andrews has bounced back from a poor start to the season to sit on 6 TDs, all coming in their last 7 games and Rashod Bateman has popped up with some key scores as well this season. Nelson Agholor may get some touches and Isaiah Likely will probably get 4 or 5 catches too.
The Ravens are a pass-funnel defense with a decent run defense so it will be interesting to see how the Eagles do against them.
I like the Eagles to win and cover this one, they’ve been playing better in general. Should be a fun one though, Lamar has shown he’ll put up points if needed and I think he’ll need to in this one. Andrews and Goedert both to score – 12/1 (Skybet)
49ers +7 @ Bills: 44.5;
SNOW GAME! There’s been a few feet of snow in Buffalo on Saturday night and the weather forecast makes it look like that’s going to continue through Sunday so I think it’s safe to say we’ll get a weather affected matchup here. The 49ers are desperate for the win to keep their wildcard push alive while the Bills are chasing the 1 seed in the AFC having beaten the Chiefs last time they played.
The 49ers have Brock Purdy back after a week off with a shoulder injury but the passing game has been stuttering with Deebo Samuel a shadow of his former self and Jauan Jennings not being able to do it all himself. George Kittle has been the bright spot all year for them though and will get heavily targeted in this one if they choose to throw the ball. Their recent drop off though is probably because they’ve got Christian McCaffrey back, he’s not looked as explosive as he used to and him playing 90% of the snaps with Jordan Mason sitting on the sideline seems a little silly.
The 49ers defense has been good but can’t hold teams for the full game and will be hoping Nick Bosa returns to give them some more pass rush, and they’ll need their kicker to improve as he’s been shit this year and I doubt he’ll be able to do it in this weather.
The Bills are off course more used to these conditions than most but even they tend to struggle to put up points in the snow. James Cook has been running well all year and Josh Allen took one in from downtown last time they played, they’ll both be important in moving the ball tonight as teams look to lean on the run game. I think Ray Davis and Ty Johnson will see some work as well as the Bills are one of the better coached teams around.
The passing game has been fine with Khalil Shakir having to be the main man for most of the season with others dropping around him. Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper should both be fine to play after their rest week and Mack Hollins has been all right when he’s come in as well. Dalton Kincaid is out again so Dawson Knox gets the main TE role. HOWEVER if the weather is as bad as expected it’s a definite fade against all pass-catchers in this game.
I liked the 49ers to cover as they’re desperate for the win but this weather worries me so I’m staying away on the spread and I’m definitely leaning under on the total, I’m a little shocked it’s not moved since we saw the pictures from there last night.
Browns +5.5 @ Broncos: 42;
The Browns come off a mini-bye after beating the Steelers the Broncos snuck a cover in Vegas last weekend.
The Broncos are much the better team here and should get the job done at home, I’ll be leaning over on the total though, Jameis will either put up yards or throw INTs so there should be points.
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