Week 14; Fantasy regular seasons ends this week

Falcons +6 @ Vikings: 45.5 (Sky)

An important game in the NFC as the Falcons are stumbling at the top of the NFC South and the Vikings look to keep winning to improve their seeding behind the Lions in the North. Getting the 2 seed would have them facing the NFC South or West in January, which is definitely preferable to the Lions or Eagles!

Kirk Cousins is surely carrying an injury? He had an absolute stinker as they returned from their bye week last week throwing 4 interceptions against the Chargers. They have the team around him to do well but it all relies on the QB. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are a good duo, they should lean more on them this weekend and keep the ball away from captain Kirk. Drake London is a top receiver, Darnell Mooney is having a fine year and even Ray Ray McCloud can do bits as well. It’s a revenge game for Cousins, hopefully that will help him have a better game than last year.

The Vikings haven’t had it all their way either with Darnold being a little hit or miss but their defense is at least helping them get to wins, they got a nice win over the Cardinals last weekend with an Aaron Jones reception sealing it. Jones has been running well but his fumbling has been causing issues. Justin Jefferson is great, Addison can have big games and TJ Hockenson returning is a boon for them as well, although Jonny Mundt does keep stealing TDs in the redzone.

The Vikings are the better team and I’ve got to lean to them covering, but it would be typical of Cousins to have a good game here and get the win so I’m staying away from the spread, and I’ve got nothing on the total either. I do like TJ Hockenson to score at 13/5 – I don’t rate the Falcons defense at all. You’ll get some good odds doubling him with someone else in this game if you fancy it.

Panthers +13.5 @ Eagles: 45.5

The Panthers have shown a bit of life recently with a close loss to the Chiefs and Buccaneers, showing that they might have a future next year at least. The Eagles have been dominant for a few weeks now with Saquon Barkley killing opponents.

3 games without an interception, 3 TDs, and 2 three-point losses against superior teams, it’s definitely been the best few games of Bryce Youngs career, which doesn’t say too much… Chuba Hubbard has been running well and they’ve been easing Jonathon Brooks into things, but it’s probably no coincidence that Adam Thielen returning has aligned with the improved matches as the veteran provides a key role for them. Xavier Legette has looked fine in his first year and David Moore adds some more experience in the receiving ranks.

The Eagles have had a run of wins in big matches and this could be a let-down spot for them, obviously I expect Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley to put up a few TDs between them and with Devonta Smith back on offense they’ve got another weapon alongside AJ Brown, although Dallas Goedert heading to IR is a miss, I’m just not sure they’ll win by 14 points in this one, they simply don’t need to with the NFC East essentially wrapped up with a win.

I sure as hell won’t be taking the Eagles on the spread and I’ll lean to the Panthers and probably under on the total. Big underdog and Under is a typical correlated parlay if you fancied it.

Browns +6.5 @ Steelers: 43.5

The Browns are fun?! Jameis Winston is a few sandwiches short of a picnic, but hell, he makes for some fun games including their win against the Steelers a couple of weeks ago. Russ Wilson had a career game against a dismal Bengals D as they won last week and look to take home the AFC North title.

I can guarantee that Jerry Jeudy doesn’t have the same game he had last week where he was running free against his former team, but he has been very good since Winston came into the team with at least 73 yards in each of his last 5 games including against this scum. David Njoku is one of the better playmaking TEs in the league and has looked good in spurts and Nick Chubb is getting better by the week on the ground. If you include the 2 pick 6s last weekend Jameis Winston threw for the most yards of any QB ever… I wonder if god has heard his prayers of no more pick 6’s?

The Steelers are a fine team, a good defense and the best offense they’ve had in probably 5 years, but I still think they’ll be one-and-done in the playoffs despite them having a good record against the teams in playoff positions. They just get the job done and have given Mike Tomlin his 18th year in a row with a without a losing record, an amazing achievement. Russell Wilson is rolling back the years with moonballs to George Pickens and Calvin Austin, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are a good 1-2 punch and that seems to be enough for them to win most matches on the back of solid defensive performances.

I like the Browns to keep this close, as most AFC North contests tend to be, and I think there will be points. I don’t think Jameis can change and that creates pure chaos, should be a fun one to watch. David Njoku – 11/4 (PaddyPower) seems too high a price to me, even if his 1 of 5 wasn’t a great stat-line a couple of weeks back, he had 17 targets last week and 2 TDs.

Jaguars +3.5 @ Titans: 40

More chaos predicted here by myself as Mac Jones takes on Will Levis in the a toilet bowl with these teams having a combined 5-19 record this year.

Trevor Lawrences’ season is over after a cheap shot last week so they’ll finish the year with Mac Jones, something which may help their overall draft position as they look to re-secure the #1 pick having lost it for a couple of years. It really is a horrible franchise. Traivs Etienne and Tank Bigsby aren’t a bad duo but things just don’t work for the Jags, they’re the anti-Steelers in terms of organisation. Brian Thomas looks like a decent draft pick though, he’s done well in a shitty season and Evan Engram could do something.

The Titans actually haven’t been bad either, their defense has performed well in horrible circumstances and if Will Levis could stop the interceptions the offense could be ok with Tony Pollard running well. Calvin Ridley helps move the ball and Nick Westbrook-Ikhene is on a ridiculous run with 8 TDs from 20 receptions this year all coming in their last 8 games.

Raiders +6.5 @ Buccaneers: 47

The Raiders aren’t a good team but have looked passable with Aiden O’Connell back at QB, they’re destined for a top 5 pick this year while the Bucs are looking for the win and potentially the NFC South title as they have figured things out in recent weeks.

Aiden O’Connell should have had a career drive against the Chiefs last Friday but they found a way to mess that up, before the mis-communication it was impressive and gave Raiders fans hope for the future. Jakobi Meyers is a fair wide receiver but it’s rookie TE Brock Bowers who looks like he’ll be the best at his position for a long time in the league. He is going to break all record this year having finished with 140 yards and a TD last weekend. The run game is missing Matttison again so will probably be shared between Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick, hopefully he won’t get too big a head.

The Buccs have figured out that Bucky Irving should get the carries as they’ve gone away from Rachaad White and Sean Tucker in recent weeks to give the rookie the bulk of the carries and he’s now scored 3 games in a row and racked up at least at least 73 yards on the ground in those games. He had 25 carries to White’s 11 last weekend and I expect similar in this one in a game they should control. Mike Evans is back and looking good, he had the catch of the week for a score last weekend and Cade Otton should be reliable at TE. Sterling Shepard isn’t Chris Godwin but provides and outlet for them.

Far too much written on this one, but again, it should be quite fun. I like the Bucs to win and cover. I like Bucky Irving over his 66.5 rush yards – 10/11 and to score a TD – 1/1, and for him to help me to the playoffs in at least one league.

Saints -5 @ Giants: 41

The Saints aren’t dead in division yet either despite a loss to the Rams last week and the Giants are just playing out the season.

Not a game I’ll be keeping my eye on with Taysom Hill done for the season. Derek Carr will lob some bombs to MVS, Alvin Kamara should get 25+ touches and that’s about it for a poor Saints team killed by injuries. Maybe a look at Juawn Johnson at TE.

Drew Lock starts again for the Giants, he showed some life against the Cowboys at least, Malik Nabers getting 13 targets, as he should do. Theo Johnson had been getting better but he heads to IR now, Darius Slayton is my usual go-to for deep shots for the Giants. Jalin Hyatt might be worth a look at 12/1, he’s had more with Lock at QB, and maybe Daniel Bellinger with Johnson now out.

I’ve got to lean to the Giants getting points at home but I’m not confident in anything here, I doubt it will be entertaining.

Jets +6 @ Dolphins: 45

The Jets lost a close one to the Seahawks with Rodgers throwing a pick-6 last week to keep them on 3 wins while the Dolphins aren’t officially dead yet although need to run the table to have any chance of making up 3 games on the Broncos after they lost on Thanksgiving in Green Bay.

They keep playing Aaron Rodgers despite himi completely checking out on the season and it’s brilliant for those who dislike him, like myself. He’ll give Adams and Wilson 10 targets each and they’ll probably catch half of them but they’ll struggle on the ground this week with Breece Hall missing out, that will give Braelon Allen the start and he’s been fine when asked although they’ve gone away from him recently. Isaiah Davis is the RB2 and is wrongly priced at one bookie to score anytime (It should get palped but it turns out I had money in there, so I’ve taken my shot)

The Dolphins like beating bad teams and this is a bad team. Tua actually had decent numbers in the cold last time out but they didn’t finish drives and it cost them. De’von Achane looks good, Jaylen Waddle has been doing well and Tyreek Hill is always going to be a threat. Add to that Jonnu Smith who’s been TE1 for the last month and they’ve got piece on offense.

I like the Dolphins to win and cover. Tyreek Hill 11/8 anytime (WillHill), Jonnu Smith at 48.5 and Waddle at 45.5 both seem too low, I’d probably go Waddle out of those two, I think the Smith run has to end eventually.

Seahawks +3 @ Cardinals: 44.5

Arguably the most important game of the day as the NFC West has all 4 teams separated by 2 wins. If the Cardinals win they tie the series between these two and go level on wins, if the Seahawks win it’s a big step towards the NFC West title. These two played a fortnight ago with the ‘Hawks winning 16-6.

The Seahawks needed a pick 6 to beat the Jets last week and now come back across the country to go on the road again, and they’re without Kenneth Walker who it seems was worth 0.5 point as the line has ticked up to 3 now. Zach Charbonnet now gets the starting workload for the Hawks and he’s not a bad backup to have there. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett have looked good but Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues his run as WR1 in the side with another good game last week, a minimum of 69 (heh) yards in his last 5 games.

I’ve said it a lot this season, I can’t judge the Cardinals, they are reliant on Kyler Murray and he’s prone to mistakes when he’s under pressure. They try and run the ball and have done that well for the most past this year but the Seahawks stopped that and they really struggled to do anything despite Marvin Harrison Jnr. looking good in the passing game. He’ll be second fiddle to Trey McBride who will likely lead them in targets once more, and it might be worth chancing Michael Wilson who seems to get looks in the redzone, although 3/1 is a bit short for me personally.

The Cards have been playing well and I think they win a close one here. I’m leaning them to cover and under on the totals. I want to get Trey McBride as him having no receiving TD this year is anomalous but his odds are too short at 15/8. I don’t mind 5/1+ for Noah Fant for the Seahawks.

Bills -3.5 @ Rams: 49.5 (Sky)

Probably a more entertaining game for the neutrals than the Cards and Seahawks, so a rightful choice for Sky as the Bills, led by MVP-elect Josh Allen look to keep up their push for the 1 seed and the Rams look to keep pace in their division.

Should be a fun game, Josh Allen has been very good this year with a lot of his pass-catchers getting injured as they’ve leant on a good run game which he’s a big part of alongside James Cook. They got Amari Cooper back last week and may have Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman returning here, all three together would be a big boost for them as they near the playoffs. Khalil Shakir has been key as the consistent man for them all year and he’ll probably keep the lead in targets regardless of the other three playing. The defense has stepped up in recent weeks as well, things look good for the Bills.

The Rams have been good all year without having any blowout wins. They have a good offense but don’t seem to have games where them and the defense both click. Kyren Williams will get the bulk of the carries but Blake Corum seems to be getting more looks in recent weeks and redzone work has tended to go towards Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Nacua and Kupp are a great double with the younger getting more of the ball but Kupp still capable of putting in good work. Tutu Atwell will get a deep shot or two and Demarcus Robinson is proving annoyingly good in random spots as well notching another TD last weekend.

Hopefully a fun game in the late slate, it seems silly to do it, but I’m leaning Rams. The Bills leave the snow to go across the country to the sunshine in a game they might be overlooking. The Rams need the game desperately. Blake Corum o17.5 rush yards

Bears +3 @ 49ers: 43.5

A difference in perspective here, the Bears have 4 wins and people seem to think they’re fine, the 49ers have 5 and they’re in the toilet.

The Bears have definitely looked better with a new OC and they’re a few plays away from having a far better record, but they are where they are. Caleb Williams numbers have improved greatly in the last month and has used his legs well to extend drives and make throws out of structure. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze have benefitted from the change in coaching as well. D’Andre Swift has been the best of their backs, he and DJ Moore are both questionable but expected to play, if he’s banged up it will open things for Roschon Johnson.

The 49ers lost CmC for the year and Jordan Mason last week so they’re down to rookie Isaac Guerendo as their main back, a position which they tend to load up with touches, they have Patrick Taylor and now my boy Israel Abanikanda as the backups for him in this one. They have struggled in recent weeks and I remain unconvinced by Brock Purdy who has dropped off a cliff as Deebo Samuel seems a big shadow of his former self. Juaun Jennings has been fine and George Kittle is doing all he can but it’s not pretty for the 49ers.

Despite everything I think I’ve got to take the 49ers winning this one, things just don’t work for the Bears. Lean over on the total. Guerendo longest rush o15.5 yards.

Chargers +4 @ Chiefs: 43

The Chargers look set for a wildcard spot while the Chiefs need to keep winning to seal the 1 seed in the AFC. The Chiefs DOMINATE in division so I’m not holding too much hope for the Chargers here.

The Chargers have dealt well with the loss of JK Dobbins as Gus Edwards has looked fine in replacing him but it was their defense who earned the win last week with 4 interceptions of Kirk Cousins. Ladd McConkey looks good in his rookie year but is questionable for this one, without him they’ll be screwed and Quinten Johnston is far too unreliable in the passing game. Will Dissly is good and obviously Justin Herbert is a very good QB. They should be able to get pressure on Mahomes.

The Chiefs just win. They’re stumbling through this season as one of the least entertaining teams to watch but they somehow find a way, through hook or more often, crook, they just get wins. Mahomes isn’t have his best year, he’s making more mistakes than he usually would and seems to be struggling to find his men. Travis Kelce is always there, Deandre Hopkins has been strangely missing in the redzone recently but Noah Gray has stepped up with the best run of his career. Xavier Worthy does a bit as well. They have Isiah Pacheco back and running anime-style on the ground, but the offensive line has dropped as has the defense so things haven’t been easy for them in the whole.

Chiefs to win by 1-14 has been the most reliable bet of the season and will likely hit again this week. Maybe we’ll get a Chargers running back tripping over air while going in for a winning score, maybe Justin Herberts arm will fall off as he winds one up. Maybe the refs will interfere again? Either way the Chiefs will win by three and march on to the playoffs without a hitch. Justin Watson o8.5 rec. yards, because, why not. Tribet – either team to win by 5 or fewer – 9/5 (Bet365)

Bengals -5.5 @ Cowboys: 49.5

The Simpppppppppppsons… I’m sure the league would have moved this game but the coverage has lined up a lovely treat for us all as they have a Simpson-cast in what should at least be a high scoring game. The Bengals another game where they put up 30+ while the Cowboys looked better beating the Giants on Thanksgiving.

The Bengals defense is looking like one of the worst in recent history while Joe Burrow is having an MVP-level year and won AFC Offensive player of the month after 12 TDs in November. The Chases look great, Brown and Ja’Marr, Tee Higgins could be putting in his CV for his future team here.

Cooper Rush hasn’t been bad for the Cowboys and gets probably the easiest defense he’s faced since coming into the team. Rico Dowdle overs looks good on the ground and Ceedee Lamb should have a big game, they might have Jake Ferguson back to help them at TE as well, and Brandin Cooks will probably get a 70 yard score as he’ll be left alone by the Bengals defense.

I can’t possibly take the Bengals covering a spread on the road, I don’t think they can set a line high enough that I’d consider taking the under. Over 49.5, Micah Parson 17 sacks. Might actually be worth the 43/20 on Carl Lawson getting one against his former team. Trey Hendrickson may rack up a double as well, look for a betbuilder on Trey and one of them two.