NFL Week 15; Crunch time

Week 15 of the NFL season is here, we’re all done with bye weeks and we’re into crunch time with teams jostling for seedings, wildcard spots and even draft spots as we’ve got just 4 games left in the season.

Your fantasy playoffs probably started this week and unfortunately if you had anyone involved in the Rams v 49ers snore-fest on Thursday night you’re probably deep in trouble as they played out (I believe) the first NO TD SCORER of the season as the Rams won 12-6. Cooper Kupp did nothing, Brock Purdy scored under 5 points, Kittle was the only one who came out with a score nearing his average. It was not pretty.

We’ve got one cracker this week with the best team in the AFC facing the best team in the NFC and other than that, it’s not great, although there is a good split between the early and late slate for once with 5 games on at 925. We are punished with 2 fucking Monday Night Football matches again this week, but it’s Vikings v Bears and Falcons v Raiders, so I’m not sure too many will be too interested in that one.

Below are the NFL official playoff scenarios from their X account;

Dolphins +3 @ Texans: 47; (Sky)

The Dolphins are technically still alive in the wildcard hunt too, the Texans should win the AFC South but do need one or two more results to beat the Colts to that title.

The Dolphins have looked better with Tua now settled back into things, he and Tyreek have been putting up numbers and Waddle and Jonnu Smith have been moving the ball for them as well. De’Von Achane is racking up receptions too as that’s how they’re using their run game at the moment, he’s had consecutive games with 7 receptions and I think he’ll near that in this one.

The Texans haven’t been smooth all year but are doing enough to win a bad division. Joe Mixon has been very good for most of the year, 12 TDs in total for him and he should hit 1,000 yards in the next fortnight. 7/10 of his games this year have finished with him over 100 rushing yards as CJ Stroud has struggled with his pass catchers in and out with injury. Nico Collins has been back a little while now and is always going to get a 20+ yarder at some point to change the game. Tank Dell hasn’t stepped up this year, Dalton Schultz is fine.

Ravens -16.5 @ Giants: 42.5;

Spread is up from -15 earlier in the week, which is amazing. Not much to talk about for this one.

The Ravens are coming off their bye week looking healthy. Lamar Jackson probably won’t end up the league MVP for the third time but has been very good this year. Derrick Henry is still chasing the OPOY title although he’s fallen behind Saquon now. I like Mark Andrews to score a TD as I do every week. Zay Flowers will be the main man in the passing game. Justice Hill o16.5 rushing yards is a nice prop in this one as they should dominate and let Henry have the 4th quarter off.

Tommy DeVito.

I can’t take the Ravens covering the biggest spread of the year although it should happen. I can see the Giants struggling to get to double-digits. Justice Hill o16.5 rush yards.

Bengals -5 @ Titans: 47.5;

The Bengals technically still have a playoff shot, the Titans probably haven’t been as bad as their record suggests.

The Bengals offense will continue to click, the Titans defense is rated highly and Jeffery Simmons will cause chaos down the middle against the weaker part of the Bengals line but Joe Burrow is used to that now and one of the best in the league at throwing on the run due to the practice he’s had doing that. Ja’marr Chase looks like he’ll get the triple crown of receptions, yards and TDs this year. Tee Higgins is very good behind him and Chase Brown is looking for his first 1,000 yard season, he’s been very good this year as well.

The Titans are up-and-down with Will Levis at QB. He can make all the throws, he can also make horrible mistakes as he does in most games. Tony Pollard has been very good and should put up yards as Rico Dowdle did on Monday last week. Calvin Ridley is the only real target although Nick Westbrook-Ikhene has a ridiculous conversion rate this season.

I think it’ll be quite high scoring, Bengals SHOULD cover but their defense has killed them this year so I wouldn’t be shocked if their former OC led the Titans to a win against them. Nick Vannett not the worst bet at 12/1+ Tee Higgins – 13/10

Cowboys +2.5 @ Panthers: 43;

The Cowboys are done for the year, the Panthers have shown a bit of life recently and might actually have an NFL QB in Bryce Young, he has been far better in recent weeks.

Rico Dowdle is firmly the main running back for the Cowboys now with around 60 carries over the past 3 weeks and it’s a good matchup for him. Cooper Rush is a backup QB and won’t ever be anything else, they’ll get the ball to Ceedee Lamb and Brandin Cooks being back definitely helps them move the ball. Other than that they’ve not got much talent. Jalen Colbert probably the WR3 and Jake Ferguson back at TE likely ends second in receptions.

Chuba Hubbard is back to the only man in the backfield as rookie Jonathan Brooks did his ACL again despite being eased into the season very slowly, poor kid. Adam Thielen returning has been big for the passing game as he offers some experience to them along with David Moore. Xavier Legette has made some big catches and Tommy Tremble has been relaible as the only TE there.

I like the Cowboys getting points. They don’t want to win now to get a better draft position, so of course they’ll probably now go on a streak.

Chiefs -4 @ Browns: 45;

The Chiefs are in the same boat as the Patriots, Giants, Raiders and Jets as teams who haven’t scored 30 points this year, the rest of them have a max of 3 wins while the Chiefs sit at 12-1 despite having not covered the spread in 7 consecutive games, quite remarkable really. The Browns are fun with Jameis.

The Chiefs offense still hasn’t had a full game this year although they did activate Hollywood Brown from IR this week as they look to get him some gametime before the playoffs. Mahomes hasn’t been himself but does enough to get the wins on the board. Kelce has been fine, Noah Gray actually looks better in recent weeks and Deandre Hopkins has a knack of finding the endzone as a useful addition for them. Their defense isn’t what it was at the start of the year but has been doing enough. The Chiefs. They do enough.

The Browns are much more fun with Jameis Winston at QB even if it doesn’t lead to W’s. He will keep slinging the ball, mostly to Jerry Jeudy who will have even more with David Njoku not playing in this one. Michael Woods has appeared to be a good 3rd down target, and players like Jordan Akins and the heroic Blake Whiteheart will get more looks at TE. Nick Chubb isn’t all the way back yet but getting better and Jerome Ford had a decent game last week too.

Chiefs win by 1-3, Chiefs by 1-14 has been the bet of the season and should hit again here. Chubb o37.5 rush yards – It’s a good rush defense they’re facing but that seems quite low. Michael Woods o1.5 receptions – 5/9

Jets -3.5 @ Jaguars: 40.5;

Both of these teams are terrible.

Jets might have Breece Hall back, he’s in training but still questionable. Garret Wilson and Devante Adams will dominate the targets, should both get deep shots. If Hall misses out then Isaiah Davis probably gets the touches as he did last week.

Mac Jones isn’t good. That writes off most of their pass-catchers and Evan Engram’s season is over through injury. Tank Bigsy and Travis Etienne are adequate.

We’re leaning under but this isn’t a game anyone will want to pay attention to.

Commanders -7.5 @ Saints: 43.5;

The Commies come off their bye week knowing they’re close to a wildcard spot. The Saints won last week but lost Derek Carr for the season, they’re still just about alive too.

I actually think the Dolphins are the better team here and I like them getting points. Lean to the over on the total. I think I’ll be on Tyreek Hill scoring again, he’s 13/10 as is Nico Collins for a predictable double at 4/1. De’von Achane o4.5 receptions – 4/5,

Kliff Kingsbury teams seem to struggle in the second half of seasons and it looked like that was happening here too, but they smashed the Titans in the first half last time they played and the week off will have allowed Brian Robinson to heal up after carrying knocks for a couple of weeks now. Robinson has run well all year and the passing game has been good with Terry McLaurin leading it with Zach Ertz, and increasingly Noah Brown supporting well.

Jake Haenor will start for the Saints. That’s not good. Alvin Kamara has been fine this year, Juwan Johnson probably the best target for them now with so many injuries in pass catching. They’ll give MVS a deep shot or two, his rec. line is 34.5 which is probably one catch for him.

Commanders win, and should cover but I don’t like it now it’s ticked over 7. Nothing on this one.

Bills +2.5 @ Lions: 54.5;

The line has come towards the Lions here, moving from 1.5 earlier in the week and we have one of the highest totals of the season which makes sense as the Lions have been unstoppable this year and the Bills played out an 80+ point game vs. the Rams last time they played. The Bills need the win to keep in the running for the 1 seed, the Lions need to keep ahead of the Eagles on their side of things.

Josh Allen is now 1/4 for the regular season MVP having beaten the Chiefs a few weeks back and being the main reason they’ve scored 30+ points in 7 consecutive games. Last week was espeically impressive with 3 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs as he had a hand in all their touchdowns against the Rams, although they did still lose that game. Allen leads the league in QBR and it’s all the more impressive as he’s doing it without a real stud at WR, although Khlalil Shakir has been very impressive as the guy who’s been playing throughout the season with injuries all around him.

Amari Cooper has played a few games back from injury, they should have Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid back from injury here as well, as they look to get healthy as they enter the playoffs. The run game has been good all year with James Cook taking a big step forward and being allowed to the rushing TDs for most of this year although obviously Allen took the goal-line touches last week.

Defensively they haven’t been bad although they’ve not played many offenses you would classify as high-scoring, the 49ers was a snow game, the Chiefs haven’t scored 30 all year, the Seahawks, Titans, Jets, Jags aren’t great, they lost to the Texans and Ravens… basically when they play a capable offense they do leak points.

The Lions have been unstoppable in the NFC as they’ve won 11 in a row after a last minute win over the Packers last weekend. That game had them littered with injuries on defense and while they welcome back a few players on that side of the ball this week they’re still weaker than they’d like back there.

Jared Goff has been very good with protection in front of him this year and has thrown 25 TDs, good for 5th so far this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the main target for him and he’s usually found 5-8 times a game as well as scoring 9 times this year, although he’s been 3 games without one now so will be looking to get back into the endzone for his team. Jameson Williams is the deep shot while Tim Patrick has come from nowhere to get a couple of scores, his first in a couple of injury-hit years. Sam LaPorta hasn’t lived up to his rookie year but has been fine.

The run game is where they dominate though with David Montgomery and Jamhyr Gibbs sharing carries, Gibbs, of course the better through the air. Monty has 12 rushing TDs, with just 3 games without one this year while Gibbs is sitting on 10 rushing, 2 receiving so far this season with both of them finding the endzone last weekend.

Should be a great game and I can see why it’s such a high total as both teams should be able to put up points. I think I like the Bills getting the points despite them being on the road, if it does turn out to the be the Super Bowl matchup this year we’re probably looking at a pick’em, which is nice. Nothing on the total, it’s too high for me to take the over. I do like the Bills to score every quarter though – 33/20 on Bet365 (you might find it better elsewhere).

Colts +4 @ Broncos: 44;

The 6 win Colts are in with a shot at the wildcard spot that the 8 win Broncos currently hold.

Anthony Richardson has looked like he may actually be able to pass a ball in recent weeks, a big improvement on the first month of the season and he’s got the body of a running back which he’s used a lot better recently as well. They may well want to get Jonathon Taylor going a bit more but should have Downs, Pittman and Pierce all playing at WR as they come through various injuries.

The Broncos have been getting better by the week with their defense winning the game last weekend but Bo Nix having a good rookie season. He spreads the ball around behind Courtland Sutton who is the undoubted 1, but it’s tough to pick which of the others will get the ball. The run game is muddled too with Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audic Estime probably in that order but it seems to change by the game.

I want the Colts to win and they may well cover the spread but the Broncos D has been good this year and realistically I’ve got to lean to them covering. Under on the total for me too.

Patriots +5.5 @ Cardinals: 46;

Two of the worst defenses in the league as the Cardinals look to bounce back from 3 losses in a row.

The Pats have looked all right in the second half of the year without getting close to winning games. Rhamondre Stevenson has plataeud, the passing game has no talent, the TE’s will probably be the main targets in Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper who have popped up recenlty. Keyshon Boutte, Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne sharing the rest of the targets.

The Cardinals lost twice to the Seahawks with a loss to the Vikings sandwiched in between. They’ve gone away from the run game which dominated earlier in the year and Kyler has thrown picks in each of their recent losses as he tries to step up and win games for them. Marvin Harrison has looked fine, Trey McBride will probably lead them in targets although is yet to score a recieving TD this year. I think it will be largely Conner and Murray doing the work in a game they should win.

Cardinals win and cover.

Steelers +5.5 @ Eagles: 43;

The battle of PA. The 10 win Steelers face the 11 win Eagles in a very interesting game.

Two of the better defenses on show in this one as both sit in the top 3 according to DVOA . The Steelers are without George Pickens again which does hurt them but Russ Wilson has been playing well recently and got the job done vs. the Browns last week on the back of a solid Najee Harris run game with Jaylen Warren assisting there. Pat Friermuth got more targets with Prickens out and Mike Williams took his place in the deeper shots as they moved the ball around well.

The Eagles run game has been killing teams with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley doing the damage, Saquon now looking like he’ll wrap up the OPOY award. They have AJ Brown and Devonta Smith together for one of the few times this year due to injury and Grant Calcaterra scored his first TD last week in place of the injured Dallas Goedert. The Eagles defense has been brilliant this year and will have to do the job once more in this one.

I have to take Mike Tomlin as an underdog, he’s 5-0 in that spot ATS this year. Jalen Hurts u37.5 rush yards – The Steelers have restricted opposing QBs on the ground this year. I’m leaning under on the total despite it being quite low.

Buccaneers +3 @ Chargers: 46.5;

The Bucs could sneak the NFC South as the Falcons falter while the Chargers need to keep winning to secure their post-season spot in the AFC.

I don’t think Bucky Irving will be playing and if he does I doubt he finishes out the game and we saw last weekend that Rachaad White has still got it in him to be the lead back in a team as he ran very well, even when he was a backup RB has we still scoring in most games. If Irving is out then Sean Tucker may well find the endzone again. They’ve moved the ball well through the air with Evans, Otton and Shepard the main men there.

The Chargers will be hoping for Ladd McConkey back and it looks like he will be as he’s been the main man in the passing game in his rookie year. Behind him Quienton Johnston and Trey Palmer have been good in spells but not entirely reliable. Gus Edwards is the main man on the ground which is a downgrade on JK Dobbins from earlier in the year. I don’t mind Herbert rushing yards as he’ll look to move the ball on the ground.

I like the Buccs getting the points here. Sterling Shepard o3.5 recptions – 21/20, Justin Herbert o15.5 rush yards. I don’t mind Baker over rushing either at 13.5

Packers -2.5 @ Seahawks: 46;

Sunday night is a big one in the NFC. The Packers look like they’ll be the 5th seed but will want to take momentum into the playoffs while the Seahawks need to keep winning to take the NFC West.

The Packers have been getting the job done in general, they’ve got a good run game with Josh Jacobs on the ground, he got 3 last week to go to make it 11 on the season, 8 of those over the last month. They should have Romeo Doubs back after he cleared concussion protocol to make them full strength in pass-catchers with Christian Watson and Jayden Reed with Tucker Kraft at TE as well. Their defense has been solid all year and capitlised on poor QB play from opponents.

The Seahawks have hit some form in Mike Mcdonalds first season in charge having won 4 games in a row. Geno Smith is second in passing yards yet 21st in TDs this season and has only thrown 3 in those 4 wins as their defense and run game has stepped up. Zach Charbonnet look like he’ll get the work at running back as it looks like Kenneth Walker will be out again, Kenny McIntosh was the man behind him last weekend. DK Metcalf will get some deep shots but it’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba who’s become the main target when moving the ball now with Tyler Lockett an afterthought in general. Noah Fant came back last week and did well.

A tough one to call on both sides of things. The sharps seem to be on the Seahawks thinking they’re the better team, I’m not convinced by that, they’ve been the Cards twice, the Jets and a 49ers team on a low. I think the Packers win outright. Geno Smith o0.5 interception – 10/13

Bears +7 @ Vikings: 43.5;

The Bears stink, but they took the Vikings to overtime in a late comeback a few weeks ago. Two ways of seeing that, they were lucky to make it that far, or the Vikings are liable to fuck ups. I like the Bears getting the 7

Falcons -4.5 @ Raiders: 44

Will Kirk Cousins ever throw another TD? He has been terrible recently but the Falcons have somehow found a pass rush from somewhere. Nothing on the spread for me, lean under on the total.