So this is Christmas and what have you done? You’ve only gone full football league and shoved as much spot on as possible! We’re 3 games down for Week 16 already with the Chargers winning on Thursday and securing a wildcard spot, the Chiefs winning once more to go to 14-1, although Tank Dell dislocating his knee was the main thing to come out of that Texans loss, sucks for him. The Ravens easily beat the Steelers to give themselves a good chance of stealing the AFC North and home-field in the playoffs.
The Saturday teams alternate their opponents on Christmas Day where we get Chiefs @ Steelers at 6pm and Ravens @ Texans at 930pm, a nice bit of background while we’re all doing games with the family after a tasty Christmas dinner.
For me as a Bengals fan it’s gone well, although we do need a Bills win to keep the chase for the 1 seed going into the final week of the season, I will actually be rooting for the Steelers to pull off a Christmas Day miracle so they have to still beat the Broncos in the final game of the season.
If you win anything this week, please think of donating to a charity, tis the time of giving and all that! My usual go-to is MIND.
Eagles -3 @ Commanders: 45.5; (Sky)
The NFC East gets the billing on Sky in the early slate as the Eagles look to keep up the pressure on the Lions and Vikings in the race for the 1 seed while the Commanders need one win to guarantee a wildcard spot, although they are pretty much there in Jayden Daniels first year.
The Eagles have won 10 in a row and look like one of the better teams on both sides of the ball with their defense stepping up over the last couple of months and Jalen Hurts looking good with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith both on the field at the same time for once. Last week there was talk of some anger between AJB and his QB, so of course Brown went for 110 and a TD, and his counterpart Smith had 109 and a TD, a good sign for the Eagles coming to the end of the regular season.
They did lose Saquon Barkley for a lot of their win against the Steelers but I think he would have gone back in for more snaps if they had NEEDED to get him in there, however Kenneth Gainwell and Hurts himself did enough to get the yards for them on the ground. Barkley has practiced fully this week so I expect he’ll be back to his usual role.
Their defense has been excellent recently with Quinyon Mitchell up there in the betting for DROY, the secondary should be able to do a good job of keeping Terry McLaurin quiet and with Jalen Carter and the DL getting pressure up front I think they’ll do a job here.
The Commanders have stumbled a little but just about got the job done last week against the Saints, although they did give up a 17 point lead and could have lost as the Saints went for 2pts at the end of the game.
They have lost Austin Ekeler for the rest of the regular season and Zach Ertz is banged up as well so things could be a little limited for them this week with Brian Robinson getting the full workload on the ground and Terry McLaurin the main man in the passing game.
B-Rob has run well this year and the ideal situation for them this week would see him getting 20+ carries with Daniels using his mobility alongside him to move the ball, but I’m not sure they’re going to be able to do that against a solid Eagles defence. Jeremy McNichols will likely get a few touches on the ground as well in support.
The passing game is very much Terry McLaurin and then not much else, especially if Ertz is banged up. That means more targets for Olamide Zaccheus, Luke McCaffrey and maybe rookie TE Ben Sinnott, although they do have Jamison Crowder back, he used to be a reliable man in the slot for them and he might have to be once more.
I like the Eagles to win and cover this one, I think the Commies are too beaten up to be able to hit 20 points and the Eagles have been rolling over everyone in recent weeks. Ben Sinnott – 8/1 (CoraLadbrokes) – He’s around 4/1 or worse elsewhere, only take him at Ladbrokes if you can get on.
Cardinals -5 @ Panthers: 47.5;
The Cards are just a game behind in the NFC West so need to keep on winning, the Panthers are doing it right by looking better but still losing games.
I’ve said it a million times this year, I can’t predict the Cardinals, but I do think they’ll be fine in this one with James Conner running over a poor Panthers run-defense. Kyler Murray should add a few yards on the ground as well with Trey Benson out of this game. Deejay Dallas might get some work as well.
The main man in the passing game will be Trey McBride as it has been most of the year and they might try and get him his first receiving TD of the season in this one. Marvin Harrison has notched a few TDs but the elite rookie would probably like to be targeted more. Greg Dortch had a random big game last weekend, and Michael Wilson is fine.
The Panthers O-Line got abused last weekend and gave Bryce Young no chance, but he has looked better with Adam Thielen back in the passing game, although it was Jalen Coker who got the points last week and with Xavier Legette missing this one it maybe him again.
Chuba Hubbard is all they’ve got on the ground with Sanders and Brooks both on IR, although it’s nice to see that Mike BOOOOOOONE is still alive. Not much to say for them really.
The Cardinals should win and cover but have a habit of fucking things up. Conner line is 84.5, and he’s 8/15 for a TD, too high and too low for me to bet.
Browns +9 @ Bengals: 46.5;
This line has gone from 7.5 to 9 and the total has dropped half a point since earlier in the week as the Browns start Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Bengals need to win out to have a chance to make the playoffs, the Browns are poop.
DTR is starting for the Browns which SHOULD mean less big plays down the field and they’ll be hoping that means fewer interceptions but from what I’ve seen he’ll still throw them, they just won’t have the big play threat that Jameis Winston offers.
Jerome Ford is in for a big night on the ground with Nick Chubb out for the year now with a broken foot, I like him o52.5 rush yards and o19.5 receiving yards against this Bengals defense. Jerry Jeudy has been playing well with Winston but it’s tough to predict with DTR under center (at least to start the game) so none of their pass-catchers are viable in betting terms.
The Bengals have been giving Chase Brown the workload on the ground and he’s done very well with it, currently sitting at 11 TDs for the season and looking like he’ll hit 1,000 rushing yards. He might need a bit more patience to use his explosiveness better but he looks good with the ball.
Tee Higgins popped up on the injury report on Friday so might miss out which means more for Ja’Marr Chase who could hit the triple crown for receptions, yards and TDs this season. Iosivas will have to step up behind Chase if Tee does miss and I think we’ll get a target or two for Jermaine Burton who’s setting records in the return game for them so far. Mike Gesicki is solid and Tanner Hudson pops up every now and then with a big game too.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals tend to struggle against the Browns and will need their defense to carry on their ball-hawking from last week to help out in this one. Browns +9 is too high for an AFC North clash, go under on the total. Jerome Ford o52.5 rush yards. Keep an eye on Higgins news, Burton is 9/1 and up (18/1 on Betway), probably worth a little look if Higgins is ruled out.
Lions -6.5 @ Bears: 47.5;
Obviously, the Lions won again to just about hold on to the 1 seed in the NFC while the Bears lost their 8th in a row as their season fizzles out.
The Lions lost David Montgomery last weekend although they’re hoping he’ll return in the playoffs, so it’s probably more Jamhyr Gibbs, although I do think Craig Reynolds will get some touches in the backfield as well.
Jared Goff has played very well this year with Amon-Ra St. Brown his usual go-to, but the emergence of Tim Patrick has helped them immensely as well. Sam LaPorta had one of his best games of the season last week and Jameson Williams is usually around 4 receptions a week too. They are very beaten up on defense so despite facing an inept Bears team they may well give up a few points here as well.
The Bears aren’t a good team, they changed coach and it looked better for a week but they’ve only hit 20 points once in their last 8 games. It’s not pretty on offense.
D’Andre Swift is fine on the ground, the pass-catching group isn’t bad, Keenan Allen is randomly the most targeted recently, turns out the OC now was his WR coach in LA so obviously has a link with him there. DJ Moore is the best guy they’ve got but doesn’t get too much and Rome Odunze is a decent target along with Cole Kmet.
They’re a decent enough defense and held the Lions to just 23 a couple of week ago, but they’ve regressed since then and this might be a tough one.
Another in-division clash which worries me with a spread nearing a touchdown. I can’t take the Lions on the spread, but I’d lean over the high total, I think the Bears might actually hit 20 points. Betway are priced well once more with 13/2 for Craig Reynolds, I’m fine with the 4/1 at the more mainstream PaddyPower/Betfair.
Rams -3 @ Jets: 46.5;
The Rams are joined with the Seahawks at 8-6 in the NFC West knowing they’ll win the division if they win out, Aaron Rodgers has decided he wants to fuck over the Jets a little bit more by winning meaningless games to ruin their draft position now the season is over.
The Rams had a shocker but won 10 days ago on Thursday night with no-one scoring a TD, that’s unusual for them, although Kyren Williams and Puka Nakua still put up yards so it wasn’t a complete write-off for them, I would expect more for Cooper Kupp after a goose-egg last week though. Defensively they didn’t allow a TD either so they’re getting better on that side of things as well.
Blake Corum has been getting more touches recently and Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson tend to pop up every now and then as well.
Davante Adams had a career game last week for the Jets and his 71 yard score was the longest of a long career for him as he hit 198 yards and 2 scores against the Jaguars, imagine it will be double-digit targets again this week for Rodgers bestest buddy. Garret Wilson will get his and Allen Lazard will likely get a few as well now he’s back from injury. Breece Hall is fine to go on the ground and Isaiah Davis will get some touches as well.
I like the Rams to win and cover, I don’t mind 5/1 on Lazard, he probably should have had one last week but didn’t hold on.
Giants +8.5 @ Falcons: 43;
Drew Lock starting for the Giants makes them a little better, but we’ve got a QB change on the other side as well with Michael Penix Jnr. getting the start and the Falcons now looking like they’ll be cutting Kirk Cousins before March 17th as he’s fallen apart this year.
The Giants are terrible, but Drew Lock at least makes them a little more watchable on offense. Tyrone Tracey and Devin Singletary will split carries on the ground, Malik Nabers should get all the targets in the passing game, but Darius Slayton longest rec is probably my go-to in this one. Wan’Dale Robinson will probably near double-digit targets as well.
The Falcons offense is likely to be (even) more rushing with a rookie QB there, and shorter passes to the TE and RBs. So I’m down on Drake London and Darnell Mooney and up on Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, and MAYBE Kyle Pitts although he’s been the least trustworthy player in the league! The Falcons D has been stepping up so I’m expecting picks on both sides of this game.
Have to take the Giants getting those points against a rookie QB, and under on the total. Drew Lock o17.5 rush yards might be the best prop of the night. My god, 26.5 rec yards for Pitts… it’s tempting, as is o2.5 recs for him. Penix is also 10/11 to throw an interception. He might be better than Cousins, but I do like going against QBs making their first starts.
Titans +4 @ Colts: 43;
Mason Rudolph is starting for the Titans after Levis threw 3 picks in their loss last weekend, the Colts also threw multiple INTs as they lost last week but they’re still alive in the wildcard race, although need to win out.
The Titans are still playing hard but just lack the talent to really do a whole lot on offense. Rudolph coming in should reduce picks, but like the Browns it probably also reduces their offense in general, and he still threw an int against the Bengals last weekend when he came in.
Tony Pollard has been running well all year and Tyjae Spears put up some good yards after the game was dead last weekend so might be worth a look, my boy Josh Whyle found the endzone as well. Calvin Ridley should get all the targets in the passing game as there’s not much else around him, although Chig Okonkwo led them last week and may do the same with a different QB in there.
The Colts are a weird one, they did very well on defense last week but Jonathan Taylor dropping the ball before the endzone killed them as they went on to lose with Richardson falling apart. He’s not a good QB but his mobility does give them something different. It makes all the pass-catchers hit-or-miss so I can’t ever do anything with them for betting purposes. Taylor did run better last week before his mistake, and you can bet he won’t be doing that again.
Interceptions by both teams seem like here, Rudolph is 5/8 to throw one, Richardson 5/6 to throw one. I’m tempted with some overs on receptions for Ridley and Chig – Okonkwo is 20/33 for o2.5, so not great odds. I’m not touching the spread or total. Lean Titans getting points.
Vikings -3 @ Seahawks: 43.5; (Sky)
The Vikings are at 12-2 with Sam Darnold and need to keep winning for a chance of stealing the NFC North and the 1 seed, the Seahawks are just about top of the NFC West at 8-6 knowing if they win out they take that division and probably the 3rd seed in the NFC.
The Vikings got the job done easily last week against the Bears with Aaron Jones and Cam Akers both scoring on the ground and even Ty Chandler getting touches as they rested their stars at the end of the game. Jones looked better than he has in recent weeks and they hit the crunch point of the season.
Sam Darnold has been very good this year in general sitting 7th in yards and 5th in TDs thrown this season, largely due to Justin Jefferson although Jordan Addison has looked very good in recent weeks. TJ Hockenson has been getting healthier by the week and stepping up well to help that aspect of the game too.
The Seahawks welcome back Kenneth Walker after injury, he will likely get the bulk of the carries despite Zach Charbonnet filling in well for him over the past couple of weeks, they do tend to go 80/20 split when it looks to me like they’d be better doing similar to the Lions and giving them a drive each. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is firmly the main man in the passing game with DK Metcalf second and Tyler Lockett the forgotten man way down the pecking order now. Noah Fant is a reliable target at TE and seems to be getting more involved recently too.
Both defense are strong in this one, so I’m going to be leaning under on the total. The Vikings are more reliable on offense but Darnold is somewhat prone to down games. Noah Fant o2.5 receptions – 20/27 – He’s hit that in the last 7 games he’s played.
Jaguars +2.5 @ Raiders: 39.5;
Who cares. Mac Jones against Desmond Ridder.
Brian Thomas is the only player worth talking about on the Jags team, he had a couple of TDs last week as the favourite target of Jones.
The Raiders have Brock Bowers setting rookie records at TE, although he got worryingly little last week with Ridder at QB, so I’m not sure what they’ve got… Alexander Mattison is back at RB for them with Sincere McCormick out. Looks like Ameer Abdullah was involved a lot last week, maybe worth a look at his props, 15.5 rec. yards seems nice.
A typical end-of-season game between two bad teams. Raiders should want to lose and I think they will, so go Jags getting points. Ameer Abdullah o15.5 rec yards.
Patriots +14 @ Bills: 46.5;
The Pats have a QB for the future at least, but have a lot of work to do, the Bills need to keep winning to try and take the one seed from the Chiefs.
Nothing much on the Pats side of things, Rhamondre Stevenson the main man on the ground, the passing game a little tougher to figure out, Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper the TE’s seem the main targets there but Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte will get some looks as well. It speaks volumes that there are 10 Bills players with shorter odds than the Patriots second lowest player in TD scorer betting.
The Bills have been scoring 30 points a week for the last 8 weeks of the season as Josh Allen looks to secure the regular season MVP award for the first time. He’ll pass or run the ball better than anyone else in the league as he puts the team on his back. James Cook has been running very well on the ground with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson backing up well on the ground. Khalil Shakir is the key man in the passing game as he keeps the ball moving in the slot. Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper will get looks too although Cooper was randomly absent from the box score last week. Dalton Kincaid is the main TE with Knox behind him.
Bills should win easily but I never take 14 point favourites despite it probably landing. James Cook – 8/11 and I like Ty Johnson this week, at 11/2 on Will Hill (13/2 on Betway), he had a lot of yards last week but didn’t get a score, I think they get him one this week. Ray Davis at 4/1 isn’t bad either in a game they should dominate. Lean under on Allen rush yards though he shouldn’t need to.
49ers +1 @ Dolphins: 44.5;
The 49ers are still in with a chance of the NFC West although they’ll want to score a TD this week after a dud 10 days ago on TNF. The Dolphins are still alive in the AFC but need to win out.
We’re down to RB4 for the 49ers with Guerendo joining CMC and Mason on IR, meaning it’s Patrick Taylor probably getting all the work with my boy Israel Abanikanda backing him up. Brock Purdy hasn’t done as well this year with his WR corps riddled with injury but he knows how to find George Kittle and Jauan Jennings at least. Deebo Samuel needs to do more, he’s had a very poor year.
The Dolphins had a shocker last week with a lack of protection for Tua causing him all kinds of issues as he threw 3 interceptions against the Texans. Are the 49ers a good team? If so, he and the Dolphins won’t do well this week either, and with Jaylen Waddle unlikely to play things aren’t great for their offense. Expect more for Jonnu Smith at TE, he finished with 11 targets last week and it may be the same here although the 49ers LB group is one of the best in the league. Malik Washington actually led them in yards last weekend. Mostert should play second fiddle to De’von Achane who gets a lot of catches out of the backfield.
I like the Over here with both teams looking to bounce back from last week. Purdy o1.5 passing TDs – 23/20. Jonnu and Jauan is probably a decent double.
Buccaneers -4 @ Cowboys: 48.5;
The Buccs look like they might sneak the NFC South as the Falcons have fallen apart and they’re racking up points every week. The Cowboys have been terrible this year, especially at home but Micah Parsons is looking back to his best recently.
Baker Mayfield has been putting up yards and TDs, sitting 3rd in scores so far this year with 4 coming last weekend, Mike Evans getting 2 of them and Jalen McMillan scoring for the 3rd game in a row. Evans is looking for his 11th season in a row with 1,000 yards, he needs 251 yards in the final 3 games to hit that mark and should get near 100 this week. The run game has been very good for the Bucs as well with Bucky Irving or Rachaad White leading the line there depending on health. Bucky was getting all the carries before injury but White showed he can still do it when given the chance. I don’t know who will get the touches here, so I’ll avoid that area.
The Cowboys offense hasn’t been great with Cooper Rush but their defense stepped up massively last weekend against the Panthers. Rush did enough and Ceedee Lamb had 116 and a TD, despite the lack of talent at QB he’s 3rd in receptions and yards this year. Rico Dowdle will get everything on the ground, he had his third game in a row with over 100 yards. Brandin Cooks add some speed on offense.
The Bucs need to keep winning and they should do that and cover here in a high-scoring affair. Mike Evans anytime – 21/20
Saints +14 @ Packers: 42;
Spencer Rattler starting for the Saints who nearly won last week, the Packers have rounded out nicely to sit at 10-4 and pretty much locked into the 6th seed due to their NFC North rivals both sitting at 12.
Rattler was fine when coming in for Haener, he was 10/21 but nearly led them to a comeback. They may well be without Kamara in this one though which kills the run game, Kendre Miller will be the beneficiary there. MVS will get a deep shot, but it looks like Foster Moreau could get the targets in the passing game.
The Packers have relied on Josh Jacobs who has been brilliant and they’ve got a good trio of receivers, Romeo Doubs the man getting the scores last weekend with Jayden Reed and Christian Watson moving the ball with Tucker Kraft. Jordan Love has reduced mistakes recently and they’ll be a good challenge for whoever they face in the playoffs.
Packers obviously win, and I’d lean them on the spread, but I won’t be touching it.
Chiefs -2.5 @ Steelers: 43.5; XMAS DAY 6pm
This seems a very generous line for the Chiefs, they looked a lot better on offense with Hollywood Brown back, they’ve got the run game varied with Hunt and Pacheco, and they’ve got Mahomes.
The Steelers need George Pickens back as their offense has dropped off markedly without him in the side.
Chiefs win by 1-14 BUT, will cover the spread.
Ravens -3 @ Texans: 47.5; XMAS DAY 930pm
The Ravens are up there with the best teams in the AFC, they had it fairly easy against the Steelers this week Derrick Henry will look to get on the scoresheet after a few weeks without finding the endzone. The Texans are without Tank Dell who dislocated his kneecap on a great catch this weekend. That hurts their offense and should mean more for Joe Mixon on the ground but the Ravens run D is their stronger point.
I like the Ravens to win and cover. A nice double with them and the Chiefs on low spreads. I think these lines will rise as we go through the weekend.
TouchdownTips 
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