We’ve already had a host of games this week as we head into Sunday with just 10 games left in the penultimate week of the season, and it’s going to be a weird late slate with only 2 matches taking place in that slot, although the most interesting game of the night is there with the Packers taking on the Vikings.
On Christmas Day we got to saw the Chiefs and Ravens easily take care of their opponents, both of whom are in the post-season and looking like they’ll once again be one-and-done as the Steelers and Texans rolled over. The Chiefs look like they’re finding their stride and it was a complete performance from the Ravens in their win. The Seahawks kept themselves alive in a snoozer on Boxing day as they won the first game this season without a TD, 6-3 against the Bears.
We got a triple-header last night to open the weekend, the Chargers saw off the Patriots without breaking a sweat to secure a wildcard spot, the Bengals kept their faint hopes alive with an OT win against the Broncos and the Rams poor offensive displays continue but they got another win to put themselves in the driving seat a game ahead in the NFC West.
Make sure you keep an eye on injury reports as players have been dropping like flies this weekend. The Colts, Dolphins, Eagles all probably fielding backup QBs this weekend.
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I’ll be getting through these a little quicker than usual this week, injuries have screwed up the slate, that does give opportunity but it also makes things a whole lot tougher.
Cowboys +7.5 @ Eagles: 38
The Cowboys are out of the NFC playoff picture but will want to hurt their rivals here, while the Eagles need a win to have a chance of the 1 seed as they sit a game behind the Lions in the second seed.
Injury notes here, Cowboys without CeeDee Lamb who’s done for the year, the Eagles are without Jalen Hurts who misses through concussion.
Cooper Rush has been fine, Rico Dowdle has run very well in general but this is the toughest defense he’ll have faced as the RB1. Jake Ferguson, Jalen Tolbert and Brandin Cooks all get a boost with Lamb out, I’d imagine it will be Ferguson and Schoonmaker at TE who see more of an increase in targets, although it’s not an easy matchup for them.
Kenny Pickett comes in for the Eagles, he was poor last week (14-24-143-1-1) but has had a week knowing he’ll be starting. Running the ball more makes sense to me, Gainwell the benefactor there as Saquon already gets a lot of the ball. The passing game is much tougher to call with an inept QB in there, so dampen your hopes for Brown and Smith winning fantasy games for you. 3 players caught the ball for them last week, Brown, Smith and Gainwell, it wasn’t pretty.
The total has plummeted with injury news and you can’t argue with it, I don’t think either team puts up points tonight. Micah Parsons should have a fun game though as Pickett does like holding on to the ball. Cowboys cover a low scoring game. Actually don’t mind the 17/10 on Dowdle anytime, that’s higher than I think it should be.
Panthers +9.5 @ Buccaneers: 48
Panthers have shown a bit of life but are without Chuba Hubbard in this one, the Buccs are still in the hunt in the NFC South, no major updates on the injury front.
So it will be Raheem Blackshear leading things on the ground with Mike BOOOOONE behind him? Unless Miles Sanders is activated from the IR which seems unlikely. Bryce Young has probably secured his spot for next year at least, things have been easier for him with Adam Thielen back in the lineup, he and David Moore found the endzone in their win over the Cardinals last weekend.
The Buccs had been rolling before their loss to the Cowboys on Monday. Mike Evans needs 172 yards to make it another 1,000 yard season and he could get halfway there tonight against a poor Panthers defense. The Bucs will be able to run the ball here though and that’s probably the way they should go with Irving and White a good 1-2 punch on the ground. Irving looks back to full health and got the full workload on Monday with White getting the passing work in that aspect. They are without Sterling Shepard so rookie Jalen McMillan may get more, he’s scored 4 in his last 3 games to close out the year.
Bucs should win and probably do it easily, but it’s a big line. Rachaad White o15.5 rec. yards, McMillan 2/1 (CoraLadbrokes), you can get 9/2 on Blackshear on Coral/Ladbrokes as well, much bigger than the 2/1-ish around elsewhere, Boone is shorter odds, I don’t agree with that. Might be a weirdly fun game.
Colts -7.5 @ Giants: 40.5
Joe Flacco vs. Drew Lock. The Colts need to win to stay alive in the AFC, the Giants need to lose to be able to get a better QB in April.
Richardson being out for the Colts means their passing attack will be more effective but they lose his power on the ground. Jonathan Taylor will look to add to his hat-trick from last weekend against a poor run defense. Josh Downs gets a big bump with Flacco under center and they are healthier at WR in general now. They’ve been good on defense in general in recent weeks.
I thought Lock would run a lot last week and he did nothing, he’ll probably put up yards this week. Nabers and Robinson will be the main targets and Tyrone Tracy has been fine on the ground.
I don’t think I can take Flacco covering this spread but the Giants are so terribly bad I definitely wouldn’t touch them either. Wan’Dale Robinson o36.5 rec. yards
Raiders -2 @ Saints: 37.5
Rough for both these teams this year, the Raiders for coming into the year without a QB, the Saints have been decimated with injuries. The Saints scoring ZERO on Monday means the Raiders are road favourites.
Aiden O’Connell is back at QB for the Raiders with Alexander Mattison leading on the ground, although Ameer Abdullah got the score last weekend. Brock Bowers is the only reliable player on their offense, he’s set rookie TE records this year and looks like the next big star at the position.
Spencer Rattler didn’t have a good game on Monday, he’s not got much to throw to and Alvin Kamara being out means there’s no real run game either. Tough spot, he does like Foster Moreau though.
A horrible game on paper. He’s only caught 2 of his 12 targets over the past two weeks, but I’ll take o16.5 rec. yards on Dante Pettis – He has cleared that line in both and I can’t ignore that target share even if it’s a poor QB throwing the ball towards him. Give me 15/2 on Foster Moreau anytime (PaddyPower), he’s 3/1 at Bet365.
Jets +10 @ Bills: 46
The Jets have shown some life recently as Rodgers and Adams re-connect, the Bills need a win to lock into the 2 seed.
Rodgers and Adams are finishing the year strong at least, even if the Jets still aren’t doing much. They put up points against the dismal Jaguars then only got 9 hosting the Rams. It’s those two and not much else really. Breece Hall will get the rushes, Allen Lazard an occasional target and Garrett Wilson will get his share but it’s a largely ineffective attack.
The Bills have been dominant for the most part but struggled against the Pats last week as 14 points favourites, it was a rare poor game from Khalil Shakir who has been one of the more reliable players in the league this year. James Cook was great on the ground and if they get in front here they’ll rotate him, Davis and Johnson. The passing game is tough to call, but Shakir and Kincaid probably lead in targets.
Bills win but I’ll lean to the Jets covering a big spread. Fairly warm in Buffalo tonight, so no snow, although a bit windy by the look of it, lean under on the total. Lazard has been getting targets, he’s a bigger price for a score, but I’m personally not going there.
Titans +1 @ Jaguars: 39
Both teams sitting at 3-12, the Titans are without Tony Pollard who’s ill, the Jaguars aren’t good.
Pollard has been the one constant for the Titans, so him missing out is rough. It means it’s all Tyjae Spears who has done well in relief on the ground and the passing game. Calvin Ridley should lead them in targets down the field but with Mason Rudolph it’s Chig Okonkwo I’ll be looking at, he’s had 17 receptions from 21 targets with Rudolph under centre and should have a good game against a terrible Jags defense.
The Jags are inept with Mac Jones under center and can’t even get their run game going with Bigsby and Etienne sharing the load. Brian Thomas has been a good draft pick for them at least, he had 132 and a TD last week to add to his double the week before, 19 from 27 targets over the last fortnight, safe to say he’s the chosen one for Mac.
A horrible looking game on paper, and one I’m not thinking “will be a bit crazy” as I’ve fallen into that trip with the Titans are few times this year. I do still like the Titans to win though, and under on the total. Chig Okonkwo longest rec. o15.5 yards, no reception line on him for some reason, go for o4, 5, 6 if it pops up. TD odds are actually all pretty shit, so I’ve got nothing on that front.
Dolphins -3.5 @ Browns: 34
34… the lowest of the year. The Dolphins have Tua listed as Doubtful so it looks like Tyler Huntley returns to the AFC North, the Browns will have Dorian Thompson-Robinson who’s not an NFL QB.
With Tua the Dolphins struggle in the cold, without him they’ve been even worse. Huntley being under center makes it tough to trust any of the passing game so it’s a downtick on Hill, Waddle (if he plays) and Jonnu Smith who had been a star over the last month of the season. De’Von Achane keeps his role though and should be fine regardless of QB.
DTR isn’t good. I said last week and it played out, they’ve brought in someone who will still throw INTs but doesn’t have the explosive plays that Jameis provides, so instead of INTs coming after a 60 yard drive, they come after 10 yards. It’s not good for them. Jerome Ford cleared his rushing line in 2 minutes last week and will get the workload again. Njoku led them in targets and likely will in this one, Elijah Moore was used more than I’d have expected though.
Not a good game, and one we’ll see a lot of on Redzone as the only 905 and one of two late slot matchups. Jerome Ford o54.5 rush yards. DTR interception – 10/13, practically guarantted.
Packers +1 @ Vikings: 49
A big game in the NFC, the 11-4 Packers face the 13-2 Vikings, both trying to chase down the Lions atop the division and the conference.
The Packers have been good over the last month of the season with Josh Jacobs getting the job done on the ground all year for them, 13 rushing TDs this year with 10 of those over the last 6 games including a hat-trick in their loss to the Lions and Jordan Love has stopped the interceptions which were hurting his team earlier in the season. They played on Monday but it was such a walkover they were able to rest their starters at the end of the game. Watson may miss out through injury, but Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are still a good trio and Tucker Kraft has proven a good TE this year, they also have Luke Musgrave back at TE to help that area as well. A ball-hawking defense creates turnovers as they’re solid on that side of the ball.
A similar situation for the Vikings as well, Aaron Jones get’s to face his old team again looking to add to his 5 rushing TDs this year, they’ve used him well but finishing drives has been tough when they get close to the goal-line. Justin Jefferson has been reliable all year and Jordan Addison has stepped up in recent weeks as a deeper threat. TJ Hockenson has returned and been efficient and it’s fairly quiet behind the big three in the passing game. Like the Packers they’re supported by a very good defense.
I like the Packers here, I think they’re a better team at the moment. This should be a close game throughout.
Falcons +3.5 @ Commanders: 46.5
The Falcons won with Michael Penix last week while the Commanders overcame the Eagles for a big win for them. The Falcons need to win to try and secure the NFC South, the Commanders are pretty much in the playoffs but a win secures that for them.
As expected, it was a run-heavy game for the Falcons with a rookie QB, but he did what he was required to do well against a terrible Giants team. 18/27 for him, although no TDs and 1 INT. Bijan Robinson nothced a couple of scores and I’d expect him to get 20+ touches again this week and they look to control the clock. Drake London led them in targets still with Mooney getting the yards. I thought Pitts would get the ball more but it looks like his time just won’t come in Atlanta.
Jayden Daniels threw 5 TDs against the Eagles last week as well as 2 INTs as they got the win in division. Olamide Zaccheus and Jamison Crowder were randomly the stars of the show with a couple of TDs apiece, and Terry McLaurin looked good once more, he’s second in TDs for WRs this year with 12. The Falcons D is pretty good, especially at safety so I think they’ll probably run Brian Robinson more this week. I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of last week for the Commanders but we do know Terry Mc will get his.
I think the Commanders are the better team in this one, I’ll take them to cover and under on the total. Jayden Daniels o0.5 interception – 10/11 – I think both QBs have one, he’s the better price.
Lions -3.5 @ 49ers: 50.5
A nice looking MNF game that I may actually watch. The Lions hold the 1 seed at the moment and a win probably secures it, the 49ers are done.
With Monty out Gibbs got all the work last week finishing with 109 and a TD. I thought Craig Reynolds would get more of the ball but it didn’t really happen. Jameon Williams had his big TD with an 82 yarder and Amon-Ra was obviously the main man in the passing gamen with LaPorta just one target behind him. You know what they’re going to do, but it’s very tough to stop them.
Isaac Guerendo should play for the 49ers so they might have a run game, but even then it will be a struggle. Deebo hasn’t been great this year, Brock Purdy has struggled with his players getting injured all over, but George Kittle has been reliable throughout the year. The 49ers defense has looked better in recent weeks.
The Lions should win, but I’ve got a feeling the 49ers mess things up for them here, I’m going 49ers to sneak a lower scoring game than expected.
That’s it for the year.
Next week I’m expecting Sky to show the Bengals and Steelers with obviously the Broncos and Chiefs at the same time.
The Broncos need a win against the Chiefs to make the other games meaningless. IF they lose then the Bengals, Dolphins and Colts are in with a chance (assuming the latter two get the job done this week, although with likely backup QBs that’s not guaranteed) I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chiefs backups beat the Broncos and the Bengals then lost to the Steelers, it seems typically Bengals. But at least there’s some kind of jeopardy going into the final week of the season.
TouchdownTips 
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