Well here we are with the final week of the regular season and as always it’s a complete crap shoot. We saw a lot of players dropping out last weekend but this week is a whole new level, so try and pay attention to the team news as it comes out as frankly we don’t really know who will be playing or how much they’ll play. I’ll do what I can on here to list situations but they’re fluid.
There’s far too much information out there about incentives for players so it’s impossible to even find value on those this weekend either. You can see the list below, shared by @toadsports which lists a lot of them, obviously, the highest values are probably the ones to keep an eye on but the lines on those players aren’t very helpful for us.
We’re already a couple of games through the weekend, I’ll be writing this during the Bengals v Steelers game, as the Ravens have wrapped up the 3 seed and the AFC North and will be facing the Chargers or the Steelers depending on the result of the Bengals game. In the process they covered the biggest spread in 3 years and became, I believe the first team to cover a 20 point spread as they kept their starters in deep into the game which shafted by bets on Keaton Mitchell who I assumed would have got the entire 4th quarter (Henry ran in two scores that I thought would have been Mitchell touches by then…fuck Harbaugh).
Quickly – Buccs and Falcons are playing for the NFC South, both need to win. The Lions and Vikings close the night playing for the 1 seed, the loser probably becomes the 3 seed as you’d expect the Eagles to win even though they’ll be playing backups. The Packers and Commanders are playing for the 6th seed, so both would probably prefer to win but they’ll be facing a tough draw either way.
In the AFC the Broncos need the win to secure their spot, if they win it doesn’t matter what the Bengals or Dolphins do. IF the Broncos lose to the Chiefs 2nd string then the door is open for the Bengals, however if the Broncos lose and Dolphins win then it’s Fin and in. Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans are the top 4 seeds in that order and we’ll see how the rest plays out. The Chargers will want to win to try and play the Texans.
I think that covers all the motivations.
Clevta explains it all in his post here;
Saints +14 @ Buccaneers: 44.5 (Sky)
So, the early televised game has the Saints sacrificing themselves for the general public as the Buccaneers are a far more entertaining watch than the Falcons in the playoffs.
Spencer Rattler is fine, made some mistakes last week and he will again this week. There’s no run game without Alvin Kamara, it’s a mess for them and they need to make a decision soon on Derek Carr as he’ll be costing them 40m next season. They need to blow it all up. I did put up Foster Moreau last weekend and he scored at 8/1, which was nice. Other than that you’re relying on a deep shot to MVS and some bits to Juwan Johnson really. Oh yeah, Dante Pettis got his yards too. I actually read their offense pretty well. They have activated Clyde Edwards-Helaire again, he had 5 for 20 yards last week.
The Buccs have been fun, Baker Mayfield is playing very well, they’ve got a great trio in the run game with Bucky Irving looking like he’s back to having the bulk of the work. Rachaad White is behind him and Sean Tucker can do bits when asked. We’ve got our first properly motivated player here though, Mike Evans needs 85 yards to hit 1,000 yards again and continue his remarkable career to this point, his yardage line is already up to 103.5 though, making the over un-backable. Cade Otton is out again, so it looks like it’s Payne Durham getting the start at TE, he did well last week with 36 and a TD, and Devin Culp got some work too after he went down. Jalen McMillan has a TD in 4 games in a row and hit a double last weekend.
Buccs should win and I think they’ll cover too, I do think Evans gets his yards, but I don’t think I can take his 100 yard line. I prefer 2 TDs for him at 7/2 or so. Dante Pettis o1.5 recs. – 5/6
Bills -3.5 @ Patriots: 36.5;
It looks like the Bills are starting guys at least, Allen trying to tie up the MVP title, can’t imagine he plays long and then it’s Mitchell Trubisky, he’s not the worst backup in the league. The Pats looks like they’re going full strength.
Guess you’re looking at Bills handicap in the first half really. I would assume Allen gets the first half and if history is anything to go by they’ll be out of sight by then. The Bills use 3 or 4 RBs a game anyway, so I guess it’ll just be less for Cook, more for Ray Davis, he’s the one I’d be looking at for a TD, but at time of writing there’s nowhere with TDs listed, so pretty much pointless me writing this.
Pats going full strength, but that’s not too strong. Maye has had a decent enough rookie year, but realistically the Pats should want to lose to try and get that 1 pick in the draft. Which I’d imagine they’d then try and trade back for some capital as the front office has a LOT of work to do in the summer. Dawson Knox needs 8 and 89 yards for some cash, he’ll get heavily peppered I’d imagine.
Bills win and cover, I prefer the 1st half handicap which is also -2.5. Bills -0.5 in the first quarter looks nice too. I do like the Over here too, total is too low for me.
Panthers +8 @ Falcons: 48;
Panthers are looking at another top 10 pick, currently 6th, a loss could get them another top 5 pick to waste. The Falcons need the win to put pressure on the Bucs and maybe take the NFC South, but the last month of the season has fucked them.
Panthers activated Miles Sanders as they’ve got no-one else at running back. Adam Thielen has been very good since he came back from injury.
Michael Penix hasn’t been splashy but he’s kept things safe and they’ve been leaning on Bijan Robinson in recent weeks with 94 and 90 and 2 TDs in each of their last two games, expect him to top 20 carries again here. Drake London was heavily targeted last week, Pitts actually did something and Mooney has been fine.
Falcons should win, but I’d be taking the Panthers on the spread. Under on the total. Bijan is 2/5 to score, that’s horrible but obviously should happen.
Bears +10 @ Packers: 41;
The Bears stink. Currently 9th pick, a loss would help them, like the Panthers get another top 10 pick. The Packers probably want to win to help seeding, I’m sure they’d prefer the Rams over the NFC North or Eagles.
Assume the Bears are playing everyone. Caleb Williams has been sacked a LOT, but 51 of his 67 have been holding the ball over 4 seconds, that’s not a good sign for him, hopefully things will “slow down” quickly for him if he wants a career in the NFL. Doesn’t look like we’ve got anything incentive-wise.
The Packers are in the playoffs, will likely rest their starters in the second half. It wasn’t pretty for them until the 4th quarter last weekend where they did comeback to make it respectable in the end against the Vikings. Luke Musgrave 7/1 (Spreadex) and Bo Melton 8/1 (Skybet) would be my longshots in this one. Both bit part players with ability. Neither listed on Paddypower at time of writing, will check in the morning.
Like above, I don’t want the Packers covering a big spread, so lean the Bears. Luke Musgrave 11/2 (Skybet)
Texans +1.5 @ Titans: 37;
Texans should rest starters but it looks like they’ll be going pretty strong still. The Titans look like they’ll be going back to Will Levis.
Joe Mixon needs 107 rush yards for $250k, I don’t see that happening, I’d hope they’d try and keep Nico healthy as they’re beaten up in the passing game, but they’re limping into the playoffs and despite hosting in the first round I’d be fairly shocked if they went any further, the last month has been painful to watch for them. Dare Ogunbowale the backup if/when Mixon gets benched, 12/1 (Bet365) for him seems all right.
The Titans have a few incentives for Tony Pollard who missed last week with illness, 83 rush yards and 2 TDs would be $450k for him. This is one I think they’ll be looking to get, he has been their best player by some way this season and the players and staff should be getting him every dime they can. Ridley the pass-catching option, but with Levis it’s not going to be pretty either way. More fun maybe, but not too pretty.
Tony Pollard – 1/1 (Bet365) – I do like the Titans to win and cover, but it’s not one I’d be backing. Lean under on the total. Kenneth Murray and Arden Key have incentives for sacks but I doubt there will be lines on them.
Jaguars +5 @ Colts: 44;
Season over for both of these team, Jags with Mac Jones. The Colts, I assume with Anthony Richardson.
Doesn’t look like there’s much on incentives in this one either. Brian Thomas Jnr. has finished the season on fire after topping 1,000 yards last week, a good rookie year for him.
The Colts didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs and haven’t made it. Jonathan Taylor has been very good recently, not touching his 84.5 line though.
Nothing on this one. It means nothing to either team.
Giants +2.5 @ Eagles: 37;
Drew Locks hasn’t been bad for the Giants and they won last week to hurt their draft position, currently 4th, another win may drop them down to 10th. The Eagles have the 2 seed wrapped up.
Lock played well, Tracy has had a good season and Malik Nabers hit 1,000 yards on the season, they’ve got the numbers they probably wanted for the season.
Jalen Hurts has missed a few games with concussion anyway and surely won’t be risked in this one, they might even pull Kenny Pickett early as he’s been banged up a few times as well in relief of Hurts. I can’t imagine AJB or Smith playing past half-time either as they’re not the most robust individuals in terms of injury and we know Saqoun Barkley won’t be playing.
I got nothing. Some low rec. lines on Giants players though, 11/2 is too high for one of my faves – Darius Slayton at Paddypower.
Commanders -6.5 @ Cowboys: 44;
Commanders playing for seeding still, a win keeps the 6th seed for them, a loss means it opens up for the Packers. The Cowboys are looking to next season.
Zach Ertz has a few incentives which are a way off, 9 receptions and 90 yards seem very unlikely as does 2+ TDs, although I do think that’s more likely than the other two. So I’m happy with 3/1 for Ertz anytime at Skybet. Terry McLaurin has 12 TDs on the year, had 1 catch for 5 yards last weekend. Olamide Zaccheus has popped up to be a star in recent weeks. Dante Fowler needs a sack for some cash as well.
Jalen Tolbert must be the main man in the Cowboys passing game now, he scored again last weekend making it 3 in a row. Rico Dowdle the man on the ground.
Have to take the Commanders covering with a little on the line for them. Zach Ertz – 3/1 (Skybet)
Chiefs +11 @ Broncos: 40;
The Chiefs are the 1 seed and have said they’ll be starting Carson Wentz. The Broncos know a win gets them into the 7th seed to face the Bills.
So we know it’s Carson Wentz and a host of other players won’t be in, half their OL and Travis Kelce both getting the night off. They had to use backup RBs earlier in the year though, Carson Steele and Samaje Perine both proving decent enough for them. They should just go after Riley Moss, and Deandre Hopkins needs 9 recs, 140 yards for some incentives, I think it’s safe to assume he won’t hit either.
Bo Nix is fine, he has been poor in recent weeks though. The run game is muddled. Jaleel McLaughlin was getting 10 yards a carry last week but they strangely went away from him, Javonte Williams was largely ignored. Courtland Sutton needs 82 yards, his line is set to 77.5, which is actually quite fair for once. Marvin Mims has appeared recently to give them another option in the passing game.
I’m fairly sure the Chiefs would rather face the Broncos, a team they beat twice a year than the Bengals, so I don’t think a Chiefs win is in the picture, but the 11 point spread is too big for me, I like the Chiefs getting that. Sutton o77.5 rec. yards.
Chargers -3.5 @ Raiders: 41.5;
I’m sure the Chargers would rather be the 5th seed and play the Texans than the Ravens. The Raiders will play hard, but ultimately don’t want to win, currently in 8th spot.
I’d imagine the Chargers will play their guys until the 4th quarter and rest them if they can, we saw last night that the Harbaughs don’t play things safe though, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re in all game. JK Dobbins needs 58 yards for $150k which is a big bonus on the minimum vet wage he took when joining them, he’ll almost certainly get the chances for that.
Dolphins -1 @ Jets: 39;
So, if the Broncos lose and the Dolphins win, then they’re into the playoffs for a one week extension to their season before getting murdered by the Bills again. The Jets have been dead for a long time, last week my mate Aaron Rodgers had a historically terrible performance with a 1.2 QBR, the 20th worst out of almost 7,000 that have been recorded, he also got his first ever fine for roughness.
I don’t like the Dolphins, I don’t think they’re very good. Tua is fine, he’ll get the ball to De’von Achane a lot to keep his completion rate nice and high and Jonnu Smith will get the ball a lot as well at TE. Tyreek Hill got a lot of the ball last week catching 9/9 for 105 yards with Tyler Huntley, but his connection with Tua has disappeared. They’ll need Jaylen Waddle back and I think he will be knowing that he’s off for 6 months otherwise. They’re decent on defense at least.
Of course, I fucking hate Aaron Rodgers and while I do like to mock the Jets for their front office decisions which have set their franchise back 5 years, I do feel sorry for the fans. I’m assuming the starters will get the full game. Conklin needs a catch for a bonus, Javon Kinlaw needs half a sack. Breece Hall is fine, Devante Adams gets most of the looks from his bestest bud in the whole wide world. Garrett Wilson might be asking for a trade over the summer if they keep Rodgers.
It’s cold and there’s a chance of snow. That’s a worry for me, but the Dolphins need the win, the Jets don’t. I can’t do it, but I think the Dolphins win and cover, I just don’t trust Tua in that weather.
Seahawks -6.5 @ Rams: 38.5
The Seahawks look to finish strong against a Rams team who are resting all their main guys.
Geno Smith needs 185 yards for $2m and 10 wins for another bunch as well, so it’s safe to say they’ll be looking to get him there. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has turned into the player they wanted, DK Metcalf and Noah Fant behind him while Tyler Lockett is the forgotten man for them, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet a good RB duo.
The Rams are starting Jimmy Garoppolo, resting Kyren Willams and Puka Nacua. So, I like Blake Corum every way I can get. 13/2 for 1st scorer, so I think you’re looking at 7/4 or so anytime. More than happy with that and o62.5 rush yards. Cody Schader is their RB2 for the night, I think and I’ll look for an anytime price on him.
Seahawks win and cover seems the most likely here. Jimmy G’s PED’s have probably worn off by now.
49ers +4.5 @ Cardinals: 43
The 49ers were done a while ago. The Cards look to finish strong.
We get Joshua Dobbs for the 49ers, he scored last week, but that’s probably bad for the pass-catching and the run game, although Guerendo is in there.
Kyler Murray needs 50 rush yards and a rushing TD for 750k, so I think that’s where you’re looking on this one, although it’s not like he needs the extra money after stealing a living all year.
I think the Cards win and cover. Kyler Murray anytime TD – 6/4 (WillHill)
Vikings +3 @ Lions: 56
The season closes with the most important game on the slate with both teams at 14-2 knowing the win gets them the 1 seed and home-field throughout the playoffs, the loser travels to the NFC South winner (probably the Bucs)
It’s been a remarkable year for Sam Darnold and the Vikings, and I’m not entirely sure how they keep doing it. Aaron Jones has done well and said this week that he wants to stay in Minnesota, they’ve got the 2nd best WR in the league this year with Jefferson and they’ve involved Jordan Addison a lot more down the field since TJ Hockenson came into the league, all behind a solid offensive line. Sam Darnold has been dealing. Jalen Nailor will get a target or too and Johnny Mundt will probably do something as well. The Vikings defense has been superb though and that’s been a huge help for them, Blake Casham needs a sack to Cashin for the season.
The Lions are the best offense in the league this year and I don’t see that stopping at home here. Jahmyr Gibbs hasn’t blinked since getting the full workload with 109 and 117 on the ground and 4 receptions for 40+ yards each week since Monty went down and it’s safe to say it will be similar this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown is as reliable as ever, they’ve got LaPorta more involved recently and Jameson Williams looks to be more involved as well. Tim Patrick is there is needed too, and they have a fun OC who will surely pull out something weird. They are a mess on defense though, which is great for the neutral.
I like the Lions to cover, but their defense has been so leaky I do think it will be over the highest total of the year as well. Sam Darnold o2.5 passing TDs 33/20, they’ve nudged up Gibbs recs to 4.5, that’s not a go for me. Gibbs longest reception o14.5 yards.
That’s it for the year, I will of course be posting throughout the post-season.
Obviously, I’d love the Bills and Lions in the final, but the Chiefs have looked worryingly good in recent weeks and probably get to host the Chargers, Texans or Steelers in divisional week, that’s fairly soft. The odds on all of these aren’t good for the big one.
TouchdownTips 
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