It is the first time since 2012 that all play-off teams have at least 10 wins on the season, so I think it’s safe to say the cream rose to the top this season and we should have some fun games in the run up to the finale in New Orleans on February the 9th (remember to book off the 10th).
If you’re looking for a bit of entertainment for the playoffs then you can enter my TDTIPS Playoff Picks Contest 2024/25 – £25 entry with winner takes all, there’s already 20+ in there, so a nice pot building up!
The regular season concluded on Monday night with the Lions easily sealing the 1 seed in the NFC by smashing the Vikings to earn themselves home-field advantage throughout the play-offs, something that stands them in good stead of making their first ever Super Bowl.
The Vikings dropped to the 5th seed despite having the second-best record in the conference and will go on the road to face the Rams, although that game will now take place in Arizona after the fires sweeping through LA put pay to their chances of hosting a play-off game.
The Eagles had the 2 seed wrapped up already but won with 3rd stringers against the Giants, they host the Packers who lost in the last second to the Bears, while the remaining NFC game sees the Buccaneers host the Commanders in probably the most interesting game of the slate.
The Chiefs had the 1 seed sealed before last weekend but still influenced who made the playoffs as they rolled over and had their belly tickled by the Broncos who smashed their inept 3rd stringers 38-0 to seal their own playoff berth, I’m not bitter, honest. (The Bengals F’d it early in the year, last week was punishment for that)
The Bills were already the 2 seeds and they rested players in their loss to the Patriots, they host the aforementioned Broncos in New Jersey as the early Sunday game. The Ravens secured the 3 seed last Saturday by beating the Browns, but the loss of Zay Flowers could be significant as they face a familiar foe in divisional rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers who lost 4-in-a-row to finish the year.
The Texans stumbled into the post-season as the de facto winners of the AFC South and get to host the Chargers as a reward for that divisional win, as always the AFC South gets the “privilege” of kicking off proceedings with the first game, 2130 on Saturday evening.
Chargers -3 @ Texans: 42.5;
The weekend opens, as always with the AFC South and once again that’s the Texans who limped into the post season at 10-7. They host the 11-win Chargers who finished second in the AFC West and come into this one as road favourites.
The Texans went 1-5 against Playoff teams and the same record against top 10 scoring offenses, while the only 10-win team the Chargers beat was the Broncos.
It’s been a successful return to the NFL for Jim Harbaugh who has based his team’s success on a solid defense (they allowed the fewest points in the regular season) and a strong run game led by JK Dobbins, but they also have Justin Herbert at QB who can make any throw that’s needed and has recorded the highest passer rating of his career while only throwing 3 interceptions on the season to 23 TDs. His work has been limited due to scheme but he’s been good when he’s been called upon.
Dobbins looked great to start the season but a mid-year injury seems to have slowed him since his return, with under 4 ypc in those two games, although they were blowouts so both the Pats and Raiders knew to expect the run. Gus Edwards is the usual bruiser but he’s likely missed the last couple of games with Hassan Haskins and rookie Kimani Vidal filling in as backup to JK.
They changed things in the passing game this year and it’s worked out well for them, Ladd McConkey looks like a very good pickup as one of the 4 rookies this year with over 1,000 yards, he has been the most reliable players and looks the favoured target for Herbert. Quientin Johnston obviously has the talent there but needs to eliminate the drops like he did last week in his career game with 13 of 14 for 186 yards, and Josh Palmer isn’t a bad 3rd choice at WR either. He finished with 8 TDs on the year and is usually good for a scoring bet. Will Dissly looks like he’s the main man at TE for them although they’ve got a few they can use with rookie Stone Smartt the pick of the others.
They are one of the better defenses in the league, although having the 3rd easiest schedule on the season probably helps them bump those numbers. They only faced a few high-power offenses this year allowing 27 in wins against the Bengals and Broncos, 30 in a loss to the Ravens and 40 against the Buccs. So, I do appreciate they’re a good defense but the numbers are skewed and they’re not as good as the numbers say. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack will get pressure and Derwin James has made the Pro Bowl at safety.
Fortunately for the Chargers the Texans are not a high-scoring offense having only eclipsed 23 points in 2 of their final 11 games as they were hit by injuries to their offense which is going to be without Tank Dell for at least the playoffs and probably the start of next season.
It’s probably safe to say there’s been a Sophomore slump for Stroud who exploded onto the scene last season as he’s struggled for the most part this year behind the worst offensive line in the playoffs, one which allowed the 2nd most sacks in the league behind the Bears, and Stroud has had similar issues as Caleb Williams and he holds on to the ball a lot, probably due to the inconsistent talent ahead of him. He needs to step up in a big way for his team to have a chance here.
Joe Mixon was running very well at the start of the season before an ankle injury ruled him out for a few games and like JK Dobbins he doesn’t look like he’s back to full health since returning although being rested last weekend should have helped that and he did hit 1,000 yards once more. It’s been 6 games since he found the endzone but he’s good on the ground and through the air and I’m sure he’ll be a key part of their gameplan this weekend. Behind him Dameon Pierce hit a 97-yarder last week and Dare Ogunbowale will probably get a catch or two as well.
Nico Collins is pretty much their passing game, although like Mixon, he struggled when returning from injury after an incredible start to the season, although they did face some tough defenses down the stretch. He is their main guy and will need to have a good game. Robert Woods, John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson are all purely bit-part guys who have been forced into a bigger role with the injuries the team have suffered and not done a whole lot to boost their careers while Dalton Schultz can be a good TE on his day. Due to their pass-catching issues they did pick up Diontae Johnson recently and he should be more involved in the offense as probably the 2nd most talented guy left there now.
They have got pass-rush with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson finishing inside the top 7 players in Edge win-rate rankings, getting the team to the top of that ranking and they’re listed as 2nd in run-stuffing as well, so they’re solid on that side of the ball.
So, this one, to me looks like it could be a defensive game with both teams stifling the other, whether you believe trends or not, when there’s a road team as a favourite of 3 or more points in the playoffs the Under has been 6-0 on totals. There’s also a trend on ‘Strength of schedule’ when heading into the playoffs… (from the RJ Bell podcast) when there’s at least a 10-place gap in SoS (29th v 14th in this case) the team who completed the toughest schedule is 32-12 against the spread in the playoffs, a boost for the Texans in this specific case.
The Chargers will want to get out to a lead and run the ball to control the clock, the Texans will want to run the ball well too, so I think this could be a slow game. I won’t be taking the under as it’s a low total, but that’s the way I’m leaning here. I’ve got nothing on the spread, would be leaning to Texans getting points at home.
Picks; Ladd McConkey o5.5 receptions – 5/7; I think I’m going to take a shot on Diontae Johnson doing something, he had 35% of offensive snaps last week and it seems many think he’ll slot in to the Tank Dell roll easily – Johnson o1.5 receptions – 10/11 (Bet365), 10/1 anytime TD (PaddyPower)
Steelers +10 @ Ravens: 43.5;
A familiar rivalry greets us for the 1am game on Saturday evening with two AFC North teams facing each other for the 63rd time with the Steelers leading the series 36-26 having won 4 of the last 5 games against the Ravens, although the most recent was a comfortable 17 point win for the Ravens as Lamar faced them fully healthy for possibly the first time in his career.
The Steelers secured another mid-round draft pick as Mike Tomlin extended his remarkable record of never having a losing season as a head coach. They started the season on fire before stumbling down the stretch as both sides of the ball faltered, losing the last 4 games of the regular season where they actually faced some capable teams.
Russell Wilson took over mid-way through the season and has secured the role at QB by keeping the ball safe for the most part, mostly dropping it off with short passes and throwing in the occasional moon-ball which is still an important part of his arsenal. He’s not going to be splashy but he can generally be reliable at least, and he’s still capable of a scramble or two when things get too hot for him. He’s fine.
The play-calling for the Steelers tends to ask for a lot of running the ball with Najee Harris who had the 7th highest amount of carries in the regular season, finishing with 4 yards per carry for the year. He’s not explosive but like Russ he will, in general, get the job done, although his work last weekend was far from impressive and they’ll be hoping it’s not a sign of him being worn down after a long season. Jaylen Warren is a good foil for him as the younger, more explosive back and they’ll probably be a 60/40 split in this one.
The passing game needs George Pickens to be able to catch the ball, he had as many drops last week as Diontae Johnson did in the entire season last year before they let him leave, but that was a bit anomalous as Pickens is usually quite reliable and makes highlight play catches with regularity. He’s a very talented player with mental issues which obviously took over last weekend but you’d like to think that won’t happen again and he’ll probably be the main man in this one. Pat Friermuth is (I’m going to use that word again) reliable at TE, he caught 5/5 against the Ravens this year and finished the season with 15 receptions in their final two games. Calvin Austin adds a deep threat with his speed and will get targets if Wilson gets time while Mike Williams and Van Jefferson are also professional football players. Williams has just 9 receptions in 9 games since they brought him in halfway through the season.
The Steelers defense is usually one of the better in the league but struggled down the stretch against better teams, TJ Watt is still up there in the running for defensive player of the year, Cam Heyward deflected a few passes last week as he and Minkah Fitzpatrick both made the Pro Bowl alongside Watt. They do tend to have the Ravens number, allowing under 20 points in 8 of the last 10 matches between these two.
The Ravens finished the season with a win over the Browns to secure the division and the higher seeding as Lamar Jackson looks to secure a third-straight MVP award, something that he’s odds-on to do after being named a 1st-team all pro on Friday. They had a solid season with some slip-ups in games they probably felt were automatic, losses to the Raiders, Browns and Steelers were all games you’d expect them to win and the week 2 loss to the Chiefs was so nearly a win. They could easily have been the 1 seed this year and they seem a better team than a year ago.
One remarkable number for the Ravens is their record against playoff teams, they are +112 against teams in the playoffs this year… the second highest positive? The Lions at +36. Admittedly the rout of the Texans at Christmas definitely helped that number, the Steelers are -30 in that category.
Lamar has been superb this year, arguably better than last season when he won MVP. He’s top in QBR, 2nd in TDs thrown, 6th in yards thrown and could have been hitting the playoffs without an interception as the 4 accredited to him have all come from deflections or bobbles, add to that his rushing ability where he added another 915 yards and you’ve got a hell of a weapon. He’s also helped Derrick Henry have the most efficient year of his illustrious career as well. Will he win MVP? It may well be Allen still, but it’s a heck of a fight for it.
Derrick Henry nearly hit 2,000 yards on the ground, finished with 18 total TDs and averaged nearly 6 yards per carry on the 2nd most carries of the season. It’s safe to say his signing was an important, and incredibly shrewd one as he pounds away at opponents and seems to get stronger as they go through games (he had 8 yards at the half last week, finished with 138 and 2 TDs). 37 carries for 227 yards and a TD in the two games against the Steelers this year with 24 carries in their stomping win a month ago. They’ll also mix in Justice Hill and maybe Keaton Mitchell through the game.
The passing game has been largely to Zay Flowers who has a great connection with Lamar and seems to get himself open when he scrambles and makes time for his offense, however he has been ruled out after getting a knock last weekend. That means that Rashod Bateman is going to have to step up and in fairness he did finish the season well with 4 TDs in their final 4 games, although that was from only 10 receptuins, 5 from 8 targets seems to be where we’re headed in this one, Nelson Agholor has shown a little, but it’s probably the tight ends who will get the biggest bump from Flowers missing out. Mark Andrews finished the season with a TD in each of his final 6 games as part of his 11 on the season and will always be an endzone threat with his size, but it’s Isiah Likely I think will get more targets this week as more of a big-WR type of player, he started the season as a big target and I think he’ll finish it that way too.
The Ravens defense is a great unit and should cause issues for the Steelers with multiple players up front who can get pressure, Madubuike and Roquan Smith both made the pro-bowl as did Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey in the secondary. They’ve been a pass-funnel all season but I’m not sure the Steelers can take advtange of that.
Everything on paper says that this should be an easy win for the Ravens as the far better team, but that’s just not the way things go in this matchup. Mike Tomlin knows how to slow the Ravens and frequently does it. So I’m not sure where to go on it. I am definitely on the Steelers side of things with them getting double-digits on spread, and I think I’ve got to lean under on the total as well. HOWEVER. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Ravens run out comfortable winners with the way the season ended for both these teams. It’s a conundrum!
Picks; I think I’m all over Likely in this one, over 28.5 yards, over 2.5 receptions 5/7, and a TD at 11/4 (SkyBet) – Andrew and Likely is best priced 8.84/1 on PaddyPower (15/2 on Skybet). If you want one from either side then Likely and Muth is 14/1 on Skybet, about 12s on PP.
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