Broncos +8.5 @ Bills: 47.5;
Packers +5 @ Eagles: 45.5;
Commanders +3 @ Buccaneers: 50.5;
Vikings -2.5 @ Rams: 48
Two games down and we had a mini-upset, which shouldn’t have been seen as an upset, with the home teams winning both matches, the Texans overcame a slow start to run out big winners against the Chargers who completely imploded with Herbert throwing more interceptions in the game than he had done all season, meaning the Texans just had to keep the ball safe and run it with Joe Mixon and he did that perfectly to give us an play-off scorigami and the first ever block 2pt score.
The Ravens should have condemned Mike Tomlin to the scrap heap, but fortunately for other AFC North fans we know their owner will keep him around, another winning record, another embarrassing, weak first round loss in the playoffs for the Steelers. Too good to get elite players, too poor to beat good teams when it counts. They took the ball to kick off the game and then didn’t reach the Ravens half of the field and went in 21-0 and dead to the world. They did show a little fight in the second half but the damage had been done by Derrick Henry and Lamar as they ran all over them in a 28-14 win.
On to the Sunday and Monday games where the AFC once again could be a blow-out but then the NFC games start and they look like they should be tighter affairs.
Denver Broncos +8.5 @ Buffalo Bills: 47.5
The 7 seed Broncos could have had their playoff spot sealed in before Christmas but a couple of losses meant it came down to beating the Chiefs last week, fortunately for them the Chiefs preferred their divisional rivals in the post-season so rested all but the water boy and tea lady as they rolled over and gave them a morale-boosting flawless victory to round out the season with a resounding 38-0 victory to allow them to go over to New Jersey to face the 2 seed Buffalo Bills.
Regardless of the result tonight it’s been a huge season for the Broncos who used their elite defense as a starting point and look like they’ve made a good decision in bringing in Sean Payton at HC and Bo Nix in the draft as the rookie signal-caller made big improvements game-by-game to guide his team here. 12th in yards, 6th in TDs and middling in QBR is a good start to a promising career.
The run game of Denver is a confusing 3-headed beast where there seems to be no rhyme or reason as to who’s getting the ball. Javonte Williams has the highest pedigree of the three but seems to have generally been outcast in recent weeks, Audric Estime is a bruiser and gets the odd carry but recent weeks seems to be Jaleel McLaughlin getting the start with his explosiveness. He seemed to run for 10 yards a carry against my Bengals a fortnight ago before they inexplicably went away from it. It’s good for the team having variation but they probably need to pick a guy and give him 20 touches, and it makes it near impossible for bettors to get on anything. 16-12-5 the touches last week – JM, AE, JW.
Courtland Sutton has always been there or thereabouts as a good receiver but hadn’t really put it together until this year where he notched up his first 1,000 yard season (and a nice bonus) as the main target for Nix, finishing with 6 TDs in their final 8 games to get to 8 on the season. He’s the main man and they’ll be glad to have Marvin Mims emerging over the last month of the season in support of him, Mimsy finished with 4 TDs in their final two games as he used his pace to haul in some perfectly placed deep shots from Nix, expect one or two of those tonight. Behind him it’s a barrel of Deshaugn Vele, Troy Franklin, L’ilJOrdan Humphrey and the tight ends Adam Trautman, Nate Adkins and Lucas Krull. I can’t tell you who’s getting the ball from those guys.
The defense has been very good this year with Patrick Surtain looking like he’s going to get the DPOY award ahead of my boy Trey Hendrickson. I can’t judge corner play very well personally but apparently he’s been very good, although it does mean his opposite corner Riley Moss does get targeted a hell of a lot. They’re great up front too with Sack Allen wreaking havoc and they blitz the 4th most of any time in the league… keep that in mind for the Bills in a minute
The Bills had the 2 seed wrapped up already so got to rest starters in their loss to the Patriots last week, so they’ll be fresh this weekend as they look to win their first ever Lombardi trophy. Josh Allen is definitely one of the two best QBs in the league this year, he looked on for MVP before the All-pro teams were released on Friday, where Lamar got that honour and gave Allen a little extra motivation as the 2nd team selection. Allen finished the season 2nd in QBT (behind Lamar) and accounted for 40 TDs (28 pass, 12 rush), setting a record for 13 different receiving TDs along the way as they moved the ball around their offense, he also got engaged to Hailee Steinfeld, so it’s safe to say he’s winning at life.
James Cook emerged from Allen’s shadow in the run game to lead the league in rushing TDs this year with 16, he gets redzone work now, but Allen still tends to get the near goal-line work as he should do. Cook was the lead of a trio of back who all added in different games in Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis who scored quite a few when they were closing out games. Unlike Denver there seems to be more reason to their rotation and it’s been working well for them.
The main advantage for the Bills passing game is that they don’t have one guy, they can move the ball around and take advantage of matchups, so if Pat Surtain is on Amari Cooper then fine, they’ll go to Khalil Shakir, or Dalton Kincard, or Keon Coleman or Mack Hollins, you get the idea. I think it should Kincaid and Coleman will be my targets in the passing game, we saw a fortnight ago that the Bengals just bullied Riley Moss with Tee Higgins and they’ll try and get a big body on him to do the same. Knox and Kincaid at TE are a good duo with Kincaid generally getting the higher value redzone targets.
Defensively they’re fine, but it definitely helps having a high-powered offense on the other side of the ball.
The Bills, and Josh Allen happen to be the best team in the league against the Blitz, so that’s an area I’ll be looking to take advantage of as Allen’s strength and mobility helps overcome their opponents bringing extra men at them. A nice nugget from the very good, succinct BBC preview this week “They [the Bills] hey are the only team in Super Bowl times to allow an average of fewer than one sack and one turnover a game.”
I think the Bills win and cover, we get another blow-out unfortunately but we should get points on both sides so I’ll go over the total. Josh Allen longest rush o13.5 yards, as I say, he’s good against the blitz, and will keep on going once he escapes the pocket, you can take his over 43.5 yards if you want as he (and all QBs) do step up and run more in the playoffs, but I prefer the longest rush. Keon Coleman anytime would be my selection for a scorer, best priced 11/4 at PaddyPower.
Green Bay Packers +5.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles: 45.5
The Packers finished the season with a loss to the Bears, but it didn’t matter to them as the Commanders would have held the 6th seed anyway so they’d have always been facing the Eagles from the 7 spot. It was a weird year for the Packers with 5 of their 6 losses coming in division and the other in the first ever Brazil game against this opponent to open the season. They may well be starting and ending the same opponent.
Jordan Love picked up an elbow injury last weekend and left the game, he probably could have returned but was rested, however it’s still not entirely clear how he is heading into this one. He’s been fine this year, and after an interception in each of his first 8 games, he finished the year without one in the final 7, and he finished the year 5th in QBR, so the stat-makers liked it. I’m not too sure. He’s good, but I do feel the Packers in general are a little too conservative, although they do have a good run game to lean on.
Josh Jacobs came in free agency and they’ve used him a lot this year with over 300 carries and 14 rushing TDs as well as his first ever receiving TD this year, he’s been very good and against this defense I think he’ll be used a lot tonight as well, although I’m not entirely convinced on the success he’ll have in this matchup. They mixed in Emmanuel Wilson more in recent weeks which could be a good look with him lined at 2.5 rush attempts and 9.5 yards.
The loss of Watson isn’t good for them but it’s not the end of things as they move the ball around well with Jayden Reed the main man on paper, but it could be Tucker Kraft or Romeo Doubs leading them depending on the week, and they’ve got good support with Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath who will all probably get a touch and Luke Musgrave returned recently as the TE2 there. Once again, good for the team as a whole, rubbish for bettors as it’s tough to figure where the scores are coming and they’ve got tough matchups this week against one of the better secondaries in the league.
They’re fine on defense although rely on turnovers for the most part, they sit top 10 in points and yards allowed this year and Xavier McKinney has 8 interceptions, good for 2nd in the league. Rashan Gary leads them in sacks, but 6.5 is far from the highest in the league.
The Eagles were able to rest their starters last weekend with Jalen Hurts still in concussion protocol, but he’s good to go in this one, and I doubt there will be any limitation on his running the ball either, one of the biggest weapons for this team. He finished the year with 14 rushing TDs, the majority of them from the “tush push” at the goal-line but he did run in from some scrambles as well.
Saquon Barkley proved a great free agency addition as he topped 2,000 yards on the ground and finished with 15 combined TDs, he should win OPOY this year as he’s flourished with other good players around him. Kenneth Gainwell will get a few touches too.
AJ Brown and Devonta Smith have both popped up on the injury report this week but I don’t think there’s much worry around either of them. Both had a good game the first time these two played, 119 for AJB and 84 for Smith. Personally I find it tough to judge either of them on a weekly basis as they do seem quite boom or bust but Brown is generally the more reliable and both have good matchups here. Dallas Goedert will probably be the 3rd target for them at tight end after getting a run out for fitness last weekend. There are a few other bit part players but it’s actually a fairly limited passing attack.
I think the Eagles win and cover, and probably looking under on the total. Emmanuel Wilson o9.5 rushing yards is probably my favourite – I do like Jacobs o16.5 rush attempts as well, but if the game gets away from them, which it could, they may abandon the run.
Washington Commanders +3.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 49.5
The Commanders beat the Cowboys last weekend to earn them a trip down to Tampa, something that not a lot of people saw coming at the start of the season, but they drafted well with Jayden Daniels who should be the offensive rookie of the year, and it’s fully deserved as he’s led this team to the promised land for the first time since 2020 where they coincidentally lost to this same team. In fact, the last playoff game they won was in 2005 against… the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Daniels was eased into the season by his coaches with short passes and run options which he used well, but showed early on he had the arm to punish teams and has developed his passing game throughout the season. 4th in QBR this year with 891 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs, they may well use his legs in this one as it’s a decent match up for it.
The passing game runs through Terry McLaurin who finished the year with 13 receiving TDs, good for second in the league behind Ja’marr Chase and it was his 5th year in a row with over 1,000 yards, his 8 receptions last week were a season high with seeding on the line. They needed someone else to step up in the passing game and it looks like that might be Olamide Zaccheus who finished with 200 yards and 3 TDs in their final three games of the season, and Jamison Crowder has popped up a bit back at his home too. Zach Ertz has proved a reliable target at TE with 6 TDs in the last 7 games of the year.
They will have been very happy to get Austin Ekeler back at the end of the year as the run game fell apart with Brian Robinson getting just 3 yards per carry in the final 3 games of the year, he will still lead the game but it might be passing out of the backfield which helps them move the ball and that’s an area Ekeler excels in.
They will have Marson Lattimore for this one and that renews his rivalry with Mike Evans, one that he has, in general, won. They’ve faced each other 13 times, Evans has been held to 0 catches in 5 of those games and only allowed 315 yards in total, with half of that coming in one game, that could be huge for them tonight.
The Buccaneers secured the NFC South and a playoff spot for the fourth year in a row as Baker Mayfield got things done on the ground and through the air in their comeback against the Saints. Mayfield finished 3rd in yards and 2nd in TD throws on the season to cap off a nice year for him and the team and while I don’t think they’re much of a threat to the big teams in the conference they are very fun to watch and won’t give up.
The Buccaneers like to get out to an early lead and use their running backs to control things as they have done recently with Bucky Irving leading the line, he finished the year with 4 games of over 15 carries and became the main target in the passing game out of the backfield. If he falters then they’ll bring in Rachaad White who has proven himself capable over the years and Sean Tucker might get a few touches as well if things go well for them. Dump offs to the running back is a good area to attack on this side of the ball as well, Baker leads the league in passes behind the line of scrimmage and Bucky has shown he can take them the distance if he gets free.
With the Evans matchup with Lattimore it’s the other side of the lineup I’ll be looking at with Jalen McMillan. The rookie stepped up towards the end of the year finishing with 7 TDs in his final 5 games and at least 51 yards in each of those, so I’m very happy with his line of 52.5. Evans did hit 1,000 yards again this year as they forced the ball to him at the end of the game, so I’m definitely not writing him off but the lattimore matchup does worry me. Sterling Shepard has been pretty safe for them and Cade Otton should return at TE, although the emergence of Payne Durham will add competition at that spot.
I like the Commanders getting over a field goal on the spread, and the over in this one, but it could go either way. Either way, it should be one to close out Sunday night. Austin Ekeler o2.5 receptions – 4/5, o3.5 receptions – 2/1. I do like Bucky receiving yards as well (19.5), I think both are good positions to attack in this one, and as I’ve got a few here, Jalen McMillan o52.5 rec. yards, definitely a spot for a bet builder. As Tampa like to take the ball first, it might be worth having a look at Tampa 1st quarter, Tampa 1st first down, anything that puts them in front early on.
TouchdownTips 
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