I may give this an edit before the games tomorrow as, for now, it’s basically a copy of the post I put on MrFixItTips this weekend. I don’t have time to edit it before going out this evening, but want to get something up on here.
Both 1 seeds get to play on Saturday evening, and both are comfortable favourites coming off of their bye weeks. Obviously I think both get through, since the change to 7 teams the 1 seeds make the Super Bowl 50% of the time, I’m going to assume most of those are due to the Chiefs who will more than likely make it again this year, but I think I can speak for most neutrals and say we’d like the Ravens/Bills vs the Lions please.
I’m desperately hoping the weather doesn’t fuck things up this weekend, all three outside games look like they’ll be around or below freezing and there’s the old “lake effect snow” expected in Buffalo before kick off, looks lovely but it does fuck up games and it would really hamper the entertainment in that one if it happened.
Texans +8.5 @ Chiefs: 42.5
It’s expected to be below-freezing temperatures as the Chiefs host a game in the playoffs for the 9th year in a row having gained the 1 seed against this season. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are experts off of extended rest and although the bookies are now aware of that trend and therefore pump up the spreads, the totals have remained solid with Andy Reid 31-9-1 to the Unders on totals, around 75%.
The Texans will need a repeat of their 4 interceptions defensive display from last week to have a chance of winning this one and they should be able to get some pressure Mahomes’ behind an offensive line which has struggled for most of the season, although they have to face the best QB in the league this week instead of Justin Herbert.
They face a tough matchup on offense with the stars from last week Joe Mixon and Nico Collins facing tough matchups on the opposing side, the Chiefs were top 10 against the run this year and do well against WR1’s, so it might be on their supporting players to move the ball for them. Dalton Schultz gets a good match against a team who allowed the second most receptions and yards to the Tight end this year, Schultz finished with 5 for 41 yards and a TD in the regular season match between these teams, his lines this week are 37.5 yards and 4.5 receptions. John Metchie seems to be entrenched as the WR2 for the Texans and they released Diontae Johnson this week so he’s even more in there now.
The Chiefs have tended to start slowly in their playoff games so I wouldn’t be shocked if the Texans get out to an early lead, but I do think they’ll be trailing in general so CJ Stroud attempts and CJ Stroud Interception look like good bets, he threw 2 INTs in the regular season game between the two teams and is 4/6 for throw one in this game. His attempts are at 34.5.
The Chiefs will have appreciated their rest as Mahomes was nursing an ankle injury, he’s had nearly 3 weeks since his last match so should be nearing 100% for this one, which is bad news for the Texans and the league as a whole as the best player in the league looks to make it 3 Lombardi trophies in a row. It wasn’t the best statistical year for him but there can’t be complaints when you lead your team to 15 wins in a season.
The Chiefs spread the ball around on offense making it tough for us bettors, but playoffs games tend to be where Travis Kelce steps up having averaged 8 catches per game over the past 3 post-season, he’s set to 5.5 receptions and I love the over on that one. Xavier Worthy was heavily targetted at the end of the season as he finished his first year in the NFL, Hollywood Brown returned to close out the season and Deandre Hopkins gets to face his former side at a good price for a touchdown. Along with Kelce though I’ll be looking at Isiah Pacheco who gets the main role on the ground but the bookies seem to think he’ll be sharing the workload as his lines are 10.5 carries and 42.5 rushing yards, I like the over on both of those.
Overall it’s looking good for the Chiefs, they’ll win, but will they cover 8.5 points? I think they do but it’s a touch too high for me to bet it, and I like the under on the total. Travis Kelce o5.5 receptions; Stroud INT – 4/6 (Paddypower); Dalton Schultz o4.5 receptions. I do also like DeAndre Hopkins anytime at 16/5, they’re good odds for a talented guy against his former team.
Commanders +9.5 @ Lions: 54.5
This one is expected to be the highest-scoring game on the slate and there are no weather worries here as it’s inside Ford Field in Detroit as the Lions host the Commanders. The Commanders snuck a 23-20 win against the Buccaneers with a last-second field goal to earn their spot here.
Jayden Daniels seems locked in for offensive rookie of the year having taken the Commanders from 4 wins last season to 12 this year. He led his team on the ground last weekend and threw 2 TDs as they got the job done, his mobility has been an asset all season and while the Lions have been good against similar QBs they haven’t faced anyone like Daniels this year.
The run game fell apart at the end of the season with Brian Robinson’s efficiency disappearing and I don’t see that changing in this matchup, so it may well be Austin Ekeler who helps them move the ball as the more explosive player in a game that’s expected to be end-to-end. Ekeler also helps in the passing game although Terry McLaurin will be the main target again, he added another TD last weekend. It was surprising to see Dyami Brown finally do something for the Commanders, he and Zaccheus will probably share 10 targets and tight end Zach Ertz should do well here too.
The Lions are the best offense in the league to watch and welcome back David Montgomery returns from injury to share the workload with Jahmyr Gibbs who showed he can do it all perfectly well on the ground by himself. Montgomery tends to get goal-line carries so is probably more likely to score, but both should find the end-zone in this one. Gibbs receiving yards or receptions is usually a good way to target him on props, 3.5 receptions and 24.5 yards are his lines.
Amon-Ra St. Brown will lead them in targets as he always does while Sam LaPorta will look to step up and Jameson Williams’ pace will help them get big gains. Jared Goff has had a great season at QB and his offensive line should give him the protection he needs to find his guys as he has done all season.
The Lions should win this one, but they’ve struggled covering big spreads this year so I’ve got to lean to the Commanders getting 9.5 points. There won’t be many punts in this one as both teams go for it on 4th down, so there will be points, but that’s a very high total! – I can’t find anywhere listing under/over on punts but if you do, obviously I like the under on that. Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush o18.5 yards, he’s done that in 8 of 10 home games this year. Jayden Daniels TD – 9/4 (BoyleSports), Ekeler o3.5 receptions – 13/8.
Rams +6.5 @ Eagles: 42.5
The Rams had an emotional win in Arizona last weekend as their game was moved from LA due to the fires, they may bring that determination into this one, but having travelled from LA to Arizona, back to LA and now across the country to Philadelphia on a short week may take it’s toll on the team.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense have had an up-and-down season, looking like one of the best teams in the league in some games and one of the worst in others, and that could be due to the concentrated offense they have on show. Kyren Williams gets the carries on the ground, Puka Nacua gets the targets through the air, outside of those two it’s become rather limited. Cooper Kupp has disappeared from box scores over the last month, Demarcus Robinson can get open and the return of Tyler Higbee at tight end seems to have added a little for the Rams, but if you can shut down Kyren and Puka then you can essentially shut down the Rams offense.
It was their defense which got the job done for them last weekend though as they had Sam Darnold seeing ghosts, they forced 9 sacks, 1 interception and only allowed 1 in 3 3rd down conversions as they dominated that side of the ball against a hapless Vikings side.
The Eagles dominated from the first kick-off where they forced a fumble to go ahead early on and they controlled the game from that moment on, it wasn’t entertaining for the neutral but showed how good the Eagles are on both sides of the ball. The signing of Saquon Barkley was one of the best of the off-season as he topped 2,000 yards in the regular season and finished with 119 on the ground last week, he finished with 4 for 47 receiving yards in the regular season game between these two so I like the over on his 11.5 receiving yards and 1.5 receptions.
Jalen Hurts returned from concussion and they limited his work last week, he’ll probably need more than 21 attempts to get the job done this week, but I think they probably try and limit his rushing attempts once more this week which is a detriment to their offense as a whole. The passing game didn’t have much to do last weekend with AJ Brown finishing with just 1 reception, I would expect that to swing back positively this week, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert do well as the other main targets in a relatively concentrate offense.
I think the Eagles win and cover in a fairly low-scoring game. Best bet for me though is Higbee o23.5 receiving yards, the Eagles lost Nakobe Dean last week so they’re down to the 3rd choice LB which should give the Rams TE a good matchup.
Ravens -1.5 @ Bills: 52.5
The game of the week takes place in New York as the Bills and Ravens face each other in another repeat game, the Ravens having comfortably won the regular season game between the two in Baltimore. Neither had to put much effort in to get their victories last week so should be rested and able to give us a good showing here, my one worry against a high-scoring game though is the weather which shows a 50% chance of snow in sub-zero temperatures.
Derrick Henry is challenging Saquon Barkley for the best signing of the season as he finished just behind him in yards with his most efficient season of his career having formed a great partnership with Lamar Jackson as they run all over their opponents. He notched up 186 yards and 2 TDs last weekend, largely in the second half of the match as he wore down and then ran over the Steelers defense, I think it’s safe to expect a similar plan here. Lamar Jackson was the main runner in the first half, he finished with 81 yards on the ground and threw for 2 TDs.
It looks like they’ll be without Zay Flowers again here (he’s officially doubtful) so Isaiah Likely and Rashod Bateman will have to get the job done again for them in the passing game with Mark Andrews offering his size in the endzone, there aren’t a huge amount of options outside of those players but Lamar Jackson’s ability to extend plays tends to get someone free down the field on most plays.
The other side of the ball sees Lamar’s MVP contender Josh Allen look to make a final push to take the award having controlled the game after the first drive last weekend. He finished with 272 yards and 2 TDs last week as well as 46 rushing yards in a game they didn’t need to push him. I think he’ll be stepping up his running in a far more competitive game this week especially if the weather turns out as expected.
The Ravens passing defense has been the place to attack for most of the season and while Humphrey is solid on one side it makes sense to bet in-play when we see who gets to face Wiggins on the other side of the ball. The Bills spread the ball around a lot which makes it tough to judge, Curtis Samuel leading them last weekend being the prime example of that. Khalil Shakir has been the most reliable target all season while Dalton Kincaid should get a few targets as well.
The run game should be where the Bills look to move the ball as well with Josh Allen and James Cook the main men supported by Ty Johnson and Ray Davis adding some alternates on the ground, it is a tough matchup for the run game here but I think Cook will top his 12.5 rushing attempts line.
Hopefully the weather doesn’t ruin what should be a very entertaining game, I like the Ravens to get the job done but under on the total with the amount of rushing I expect to see. Lamar under his passing yards looks good, but Josh Allen 10/11 to score a touchdown is my favourite bet of this game.
TouchdownTips 
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