We’re into conference week; the semi-finals and penultimate weekend of the season and we have two interesting looking games in prospect for Sunday night.
The NFC is an NFC East clash between the 6th seed, 12-5 Commanders and 2nd seed, 14-3 Eagles. The Commanders pulled off the upset in a high-scoring win over the Lions as Jared Goff shit the bed throwing 3 interceptions and lost a fumble on the night as the Commies D dominated the turnover battle. The Eagles had it fairly easy in the snow against the Rams despite a late comeback making it a little closer than expected, Saquon Barkley the key man with his 2nd highest rushing yardage of the season and a couple of scores.
The AFC gets a re-match of last years divisional round as the 2 seed Bills face the top seed Chiefs. The Bills scraped past the Ravens last week who had the chance to tie it up at the end but Mark Andrews failed to catch the 2-point conversion which would have sent it to over time. The Chiefs looked comfortable on paper, but lost on offensive stats, although, obviously the Chiefs won the penalty battle, gaining 2 first downs with flags and 82 yards. Strange that.
Commanders +6 @ Eagles: 47.5
These two teams played twice in the regular season and split the series, the Eagles winning the earlier matchup and the Commanders needing a late field goal to beat Kenny Pickett after Hurts went out of the game at 7-0 on the drive which led them to a 14-0 lead. The Eagles have won 9 in a row at home and this is Washington’s 5th straight road game. All signs point to the Eagles, but that’s been the case all playoffs, yet here they are.
The key thing to pay attention to in this game though seems to be the health of Jalen Hurts who hurt his knee after being tackled from behind on the run last week, he finished out the game and will be starting, but will we so another step back in his rushing? Something that seems to have reduced (in terms of attempts) since coming back from concussion in that regular season game between the teams, although he did have 70 yards and got in with a “tush push”. Personally I thought he was poor last week, he held the ball too long and took too many sacks when the ball should have been gone. Sure, when he did throw the ball it was fairly accurate (15/20) and his receivers did drop a couple but I’m not exactly high on him at the moment, I saw “his receivers”… it was all AJ Brown who needs to manifest himself some catches.
AJ Brown now has 3 catches in their 2 playoff wins, for 24 yards. Things just don’t seem to be working for him at the moment, and with it being such a shallow passing game in general, essentially AJB, Smith and Goedert it does kind of rely on all of them being reliable each game and it is mainly deeper shots for the first two with his tight end getting more in the mid-range game as the safety blanket. For what it’s worth AJB has 8 for 97 and a TD with Kenny Pickett under center, 5 for 65 when Hurts played the full game between these teams. I really struggle with Devonta Smith, clearly talented and paid like it, but he seems very hit or miss, 10 for 80 yards in the two games combined, and 4 recs per game in the playoffs. You can have a go on Johnny Wilson, Jahan Dotson and Grant Calcaterra if you want, but it’s a fools errands in my eyes.
The game for the Eagles relies almost entirely on Saquon Barkley who should win OPOY after topping 2,000 in the regular season and over 300 in the 2 post-season games they’ve had so far, safe to say he was a good pickup over the summer. He nearly hit 300 in the two games between these teams with 4 TDs combined, however, he does have the highest rushing line in history at 124.5 yards! Sure, he’ll probably get it, but I won’t ever be taking that. What I will be taking on Saquon though is his receptions and receiving yards. He went over both last week with 4 for 27 yards, he had 2 for 52 in the regular season games and when the game is on the line, when your QB is struggling to throw deep, is holding on to the ball too long with the Super Bowl on the line… you get the ball in the hands of your best player.
The Eagles defense has been superb all year but injuries could be taking their toll as they lost Quinyon Mitchell at cornerback last week meaning the WR2/3 will be getting easier matchups this weekend with Slay probably erasing Terry McLaurin from the game, he was very good last week. Zach Baun had another good game as he pushes for the DPOY award after coming in from the Saints, there was one drive he changed the game by himself with tackles, tips and recoveries and then you’ve got the elite pass rush with Jalen Carter leading the way.
Eagles props? Saquon o12.5 receiving yards. Goedert oReceptions.
The Commanders weren’t expected to be anywhere near here and probably would have been happy with a winning record but Jayden Daniels has been immense and is looking to become the first rookie QB to make the Super Bowl. He was accurate when asked to throw last week and he got the job done once again on the ground, only a few yards off 1,000 rushing yards on the season now after 87 in the two playoffs games so far. He had 99 rush yards from 16 attempts in the games against the Eagles, although most of them came in the second one. He did also have his worst passing game of the season in the match in Phillie earlier in the season, just 1 TD and 1 INT. for him. Daniels has overcome every challenge so far this season and I’m not sure I’m ready to bet against him.
The passing game has been largely Terry McLaurin who has hit 87 and 89 in the playoffs and a TD in each of them, he SHOULD be the main target, but with Slay covering it won’t be easy and I wouldn’t be shocked to see something like the 1 for 10 the last time they played in Phillie, but that should mean that things open up for the other receivers and in recent week that has become Dyami Brown who, after a rough season, has blown up with 187 yards in the playoffs from 11 receptions, he has 4 for 56 in the game a month ago between these two teams which was the start of him emerging in this offense. As I said above, with Quinyon Mitchell out the WR2/3 will get softer coverage so that should benefit Brown and Olamide Zaccheus who has been a fair support for this team and had a double when they faced each other recently. Zach Ertz will likely be the second most targeted player in this offense though with the Eagles giving up a lot of receptions to Tyler Higbee last week with Nakobi Dean out of the lineup. The experienced veteran has been an essential pickup for the Commies and caught all 5 of his targets last week, including one for a TD. Jamison Crowder has had one good game all year, 2 TDs against the Eagles… I don’t think that repeats, but who knows.
The run game has been interesting, Brian Robinson looked really good early in the year but has dropped off markedly at the end of the season, although he did score twice last weekend and ran for 5 yards per carry against a porous Lions defense, can he do it this week against a far better defense? Given that he averaged about 3 yards per carry against them in the season I’m not exactly convinced. Austin Ekeler is the player I’m targeting for props though, I’ll be on his combined rush and receiving yards, currently at 46.5, although his receiving yards and receptions are the main area I’m looking at, 25.5 and 2.5 both look good to me.
Defensively they’re fine, although they do blitz a lot and use man coverage, which could play into the hands of the Eagles. They should be able to get pressure up front and we saw last week that Hurts may well hold on to the ball too long, forcing him to go backwards will be the key here. They have been able to slow Barkley for a half at a time but that has left them struggling on the back end, it will be an interesting puzzle.
Washington props..Dyami Brown o42.5 rec yards, has topped 80 in each of the playoff games, the last Eagles game – 4 for 56 and there are injuries to Eagles secondary. Ekeler o46.5 rush and receiving yards, look for alt totals on receptions for Ekeler, 4,5,6. He had 8 for 89 in the first match between the two.
Overall? I think I’ve got to take the Commanders getting the points, it seems to me that it will be a close game regardless of the winner, and although I’m not a fan of anything on the total I’ll be going over. It’s the 5th straight road game for Washington, teams are 0-7 in that spot, which isn’t great. So, Eagles win, Commander cover, 54 points total, and all the props win. The beginning of the Super Bowl re-match starts, booooooooo.
Bills +2 @ Chiefs: 47.5
These teams met in the regular season with the Bills bringing home the win, getting the QBs to a 4-4 record, but when the games really count, Josh Allen hasn’t pulled his team to victory yet, losing 4 times against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Allen might be the season MVP this year and he has been fantastic, but he needs to get the job done where it counts and he’s got a good chance this weekend.
Allen has been superb this year and possesses all the physical traits you need in the modern NFL, he’s got a huge arm, good accuracy and can run better than most in the league, if he gets the monkey off his back here and gets a victory over the Chiefs I think they’ll go on and win the Super Bowl, but can he do it? He seems more mature this season and the win in the regular season was sealed when he ran in from 26 yards on 4th down.
The run game has been key for the Bills this year with Allen and James Cook leading the attack there, Cook had a couple of rushing TDs in the first game between these two and added his 17th rushing TD in the playoffs, the Chiefs run defense is good but Cook and Allen should find a way to break through at least once. They’ve also got good support in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson who add different looks with Davis a bulldozer and Johnson the more mobile back.
The passing game is varied, which helps a lot as teams can’t just try and take away one player. The main man has been Khlalil Shakir this year and that’s proven in the playoffs as well, he had 8 for 70 yards in the regular season game and has 6 receptions in each playoff games so far as well as he helps move the ball 10 yards at a time. Outside of him it’s more blurry, they have Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman for bigger plays, Mack Hollins will use his speed once or twice a game to get downfield, but it’s Dalton Kincaid who should step up in this situation in the middle of the field and endzone, as the main target when in scoring positions.
The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t been dominant this season but stepped things up at the end of the year and despite losing the yardage battle won comfortably last weekend against the Texans, mainly due to having the best QB in the game in Patrick Mahomes. His stats don’t jump off the page this year but he is very tough to bring down and can make any throw that’s needed. He hasn’t rushed much this year but I think he’ll top his 3.5 line on carries in this one, the most important game of the season for his team.
The run game has become difficult for bettors as Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco share carries, it looks like they’re leaning slightly towards Hunt at the moment but I won’t be having any part of it. They might even mix in Samaje Perine for a few catches if they get slowed down, he could be worth a silly little punt for a touchdown.
Travis Kelce has had a poor year by his standards but always comes back when it matters and he led the team last week with 117 of his QBs 177 yards, and a touchdown from 7 receptions. He’ll be the main man again and teams don’t ever seem to be able to stop him, so I’ll be expecting another good showing from him. Behind him it’s a little more complicated, they have been trying to get Xavier Worthy involved with his speed, he may well get a carry or two in this one, Marquise Brown is talented and Deandre Hopkins adds experience, but none seem too reliable on a weekly basis.
This should be another close game, probably decided by whichever team gets the ball at the end of the game. The Bills have been more impressive on the season but the Chiefs defense has shown up as one of the best in the league and I just can’t trust Josh Allen in the playoffs, so I’ll be taking the Chiefs to win and probably under on the total, but that one is a little more dicey.
My best bet though is Josh Allen to score a TD – 10/11, he’ll get the goal-line work and he seems to be carrying the team this year, I also like o9.5 rush attempts for him – 10/11, I think he’ll be a man possessed here. Khalil Shakir is the man I’d look for in the Bills receiving corps, but I’ll have a stab on Xavier Worthy o3.5 rushing yards – 5/6 He’s had at least one carry against every team outside of the AFC West this season, including 1 for 7 yards against the Bills in their regular season game.
TouchdownTips 
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