Cover image courtesy of the fantastic @LiamOneThree on twitter, check him out – liamonethree.etsy.com
Here we are then, the final game of the 2024/25 NFL season as the 1 seed of the AFC takes on the 2 seed in the NFC in a re-match of the Super Bowl from two years ago where the Chiefs staged a big second half comeback to win 38-35. A win that has set them up for a piece of history here as they look to become the first team to ever win three-in-a-row, a three-peat as it’s being called everywhere.
It’s another finalé in New Orleans who hosted the 2013 Super Bowl famous for the power cut leading to the Ravens coming back to win once power was restored. This year they’re blessed with the presence of Big Orange himself, as Donald Trump becomes the first serving president to view the game in stadium. It looks like he’ll be supporting the Chiefs as a fan of Mahomes, and I would assume both the Chiefs kickers, Butker and Ariaza both seem like people Trump would like to spend time with.
The Chiefs had the bye week and then dispatched the Texans and the Bills, last week was the first time all season the Chiefs scored over 30 points as they held on to a 32-29 victory over MVP Josh Allen. The regular season wasn’t good for neutrals to watch for them, but they just get the job done.
The Eagles didn’t earn the bye week so have a little more mileage in their tyres, but had fairly easy wins against the Packers, Rams and last week walked through the Commanders with a dominant defensive performance and three scores apiece on the ground for Hurts and Barkley.
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Lets have a look at the novelty markets before we get into the nitty-gritty of the game itself. Of course the coin toss… I’ve got nothing on that this year, I haven’t found anywhere offering what the team will call, and honestly I don’t have any knowledge either way this year, apparently the Chiefs tend to switch their calls so there’s no trends there anyway.
National Anthem is Jon Batiste, a pianist who has said “it will be memorable.” Which I take to mean, it will have a 30 second piano solo in the middle of it. Historically his longest on record seems to be 96 seconds, but the line is set Over/Under 2min 1second. Personally I think it goes longer by a couple of seconds, but I’m sure there will be a leak on Saturday evening which will confirm either way. Get on PaddyPower or Skybet as soon as you see that to guarantee yourself an easy, early win.
Honestly, as a 41-year old White man, Kendrick Lamar isn’t exactly my wheelhouse when it comes to music, so I’ve not no knowledge of his music myself except the Black Panther sound track… I do like the idea that all the beef with Drake has been a hoax and he’ll bring him out for a duet, but somehow I don’t see that happening (he’s 50/1 for a guest appearance…). From a “leak” I’ve seen it looks like we’ll get a snippet of GNX before Squabble Up becomes the first song of the night and the odds have dropped on that song from 5/1 to 1/1 on Skybet (GNX isn’t available to bet on there). TV Off looks like the last track of the evening, sitting now at 1/8. Once again keep an eye on Twitter for a proper leak and you should be able to make some cash. I know some will find this laughable, but if you’re quick enough it can be a nice earner.
It looks like the Gatorade will be Yellow/Green – I had a post in our Whatsapp immediately after the NFC champ game when I saw the Eagles lob Yellow on Sirianni, and apparently the Chiefs go that colour as well, 1/2 the best from the main sites now, but you can get better odds at TangoBet – Yeah, I hadn’t heard of them either, but I’ll open an account and take the 5/2 on there. Finally, the MVP will undoubtedly thank God first, that’s 4/11 on PP.
That’s about it from the stupid stuff.
(10/11) Chiefs -1 vs. Eagles (21/20): 48.5
It’s safe to say the bookies aren’t sure on this one and there seems to have been money on both sides with the line shortening a little to just one point now. Coincidentally the line was 1 point a couple of years ago as well. Personally I think the Eagles are better now, but the Chiefs just get the job done.
Kansas City Chiefs
I think it’s safe to say they’ve got the best Head coach in the game, and unfortunately for the rest of the AFC, the best QB in the game at the moment and in my opinion, of all time. To paraphrase Vince Vaughn “I hate you, but god damn it, do I respect him.” Admittedly he’s not had to have a great year statistically due to their incredibly good defense but when called upon Mahomes always comes up trumps. The playoffs especially have seen him step it up on the ground with 7 and 11 carries in the two games, and I’ll be taking him to top his 5.5 line in this game, I prefer that to rush yards as it includes but doesn’t punish for kneel downs should they be leading at the end of the half/game.
Passing yardage is tougher to call for Mahomes this season, I’d expect 20-odd completions for 250ish, but I wouldn’t be betting anything big on that side of the ball. They are a defense-first team now, as they have been for a couple of years and controlling the time of possession whether it’s running the ball or shorter passes seems to best way for them to win these days,
The run game has flipped to Kareem Hunt who has scored in 4 games in a row – 7/5 anytime for him seems good to me, he’ll get the goal-line rushes for the most part. I wouldn’t want to be taking his rushing yardage, although 42.5 is a low number. It’s a teaser. Isaiah Pacheco hasn’t done a whole lot since returning from injury, probably leaning under the 22.5 for him. We might get a little Samaje Perine in the passing game, o7.5 my lean on him. There are some interesting markets on first player to X yards on PaddyPower, I’d be taking Hunt at 7/2 and Mahomes at 13/2 if I was wanting to risk that market. Obviously that relies on them starting with the ball as it’s undoubtedly Barkley otherwise.
Travis Kelce is a shadow of his former self but can still get the job done in the biggest spots and he gets a good matchup against an Eagles team who allowed Zach Ertz to get 11 catches last time out. I don’t want to attack his receptions or yards though, TD scorer if you really need something on him. I’ll be avoiding him and going for o1.5 receptions for Noah Gray at plus money – 11/10. Xavier Worthy was the hero for the Chiefs in the championship game, 6-85-1 his line as well as 2 rushes for 16 yards. He’s had a rush attempt in nearly every game they’ve played this season so the o1.5 rush attempts is not a bad line at all, I prefer his rush yards at 5.5. The rest of the passing game is a bit of a mess. Deandre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster will get touches, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Justin Watson pops up with a score.
Defensively the Chiefs have been very good all season, especially against the run, allowing just one 100-yard rusher this season, they’ll be going all out to stop Saquon Barkley and that probably means leaving Trent McDuffie on AJ Brown. They have allowed a lot to the tight end this season so it’s probably a good spot for Goedert. Chris Jones is a beast, and should get pressure up the middle… it’s easier there than against the tackles for the Eagles. He’s decent odds to get a sack at 27/20. Jalen Hurts does tend to hold on to the ball a lot and Jones should get home.
Both team relevance
There are quite a few bets which are relevant to both teams so I’ll chuck them here in the middle… I quite like First TD scorer shirt number – o25.5 (20/23) – Saquon, Hunt, Kelce, Goedert, Gray. All over that line. Of course, it could be Hurts, Mahomes or Worthy, I’d probably be shading the odds to the over rather than it being the same on both sides.
Both of these teams will go for it on 4th downs, especially the Eagles – My biggest bet of the night at the moment is Eagles o1.5 4th down conversions – 6/5 (PaddyPower) – They play 3rd downs as if they’ve got 2 downs left, happy to get within a yard to run the tush-push. I don’t mind o2.5 between the two teams at Evens, and finally both teams to have at least one 4th down conversion is 8/11 (they’re 4/7 and 1/6 respectively)
Shortest TD u1.5 yards isn’t big odds at 4/6 (Bet365) but it’s got a good chance of it happening, it has done in 4 of 5 Super Bowls, three of those involving the Chiefs.
Highest scoring half – 2nd is another regular Super Bowl go-to. The games tend to start slower and the Eagles have done that for most of the season. The Chiefs scored on all four 2nd-half possessions scoring 17 points in the 4th quarter in the Super Bowl between these two those years ago.
Eagles o1.5 rushing TDs – 5/7 (Bet365) – Just the 7 rushing TDs last time they played. Saquon is the newly-crowned OPOY and Jalen Hurts is unstoppable on very short yardage.
Right, onto the Eagles.
Philadelphia Eagles.
Nick Sirianni obviously isn’t a bad head coach for the Eagles so they’re not far off in that area and defensive co-ordinator Vic Fangio knows how to stop the Chiefs in the red zone, so they’re in with a good shot on coaching terms.
I am not entirely convinced with Jalen Hurts. He’s very good and with 18 rushing TDs it’s safe to say he’s a dual threat. He’s an accurate passer when he releases the ball but the game against the Rams worried me as he held on to it a lot and took some sacks which could have cost the team. He’s got a good deep ball which he’ll use to AJ Brown who does well against man-coverage. Hurts hasn’t been rushing THAT much since coming back from injury but showed against the Commanders he will if he needs, and you know… tush push. He’s well protected for the most part which definitely helps him, but going against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense will not be easy.
Saquon Barkley rightfully won offensive player of the year this week and needs another 30 yards to break the single (regular and post-season) rushing line. If the Eagles win it will surely be due to him. He has notched up 20 total TDs this year with 5 of them, and 442 yards in their three playoff games, he has been an absolute beast now that it’s in a functional team behind a very good offensive line. Longest rush is probably the way I’d look on Saquon – o23.5 – However I don’t think I’ll be on any of his props due to the Chiefs defense. I actually don’t think he’s badly priced at 8/15 to find the endzone. Behind him Kenneth Gainwell will get a few touches and obviously Jalen Hurts will get his rushes.
The passing game of the Eagles is very shallow, essentially AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. They don’t tend to use the running backs in the passing game, although Saquon can do that if required. AJ Brown came alive last week against man coverage and while McDuffie is very good there’s a chance he does the same in this one, but due to his playoff record I don’t want any part of his props, 3 receptions in the first two and 6 in the last playoff game doesn’t exactly scream reliable.
Devonta Smith is frustrating as well, but exactly 4 receptions in each playoff game (from 4 targets in each) at least gives us an idea of how they’ll probably want to use him, I definitely don’t want over 4.5 receptions for him. One player in their passing game I do want to take the overs on though is Dallas Goedert, 4-4-7 receptions in the playoffs and now against a team who has allowed the most yards in the league to the position? Personally, I prefer o4.5 receptions but I’d be fine with o51.5 yards for him as well. Other than that you might get a reception or two for Saquon (o/u 1.5), maybe a couple for Gainwell but I can’t see any lines on him.
The defense has been the best in the league this year, great up front led by Jalen Carter who rarely leaves the field with Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell in the secondary doing their work on opposing receivers, supported by Cooper Dejean and CJGJ. Zach Baun has been a great pick-up for them at linebacker. Jalen Carter – 13/10 to record a sack seems fair.
Result?
Man, I don’t know. I think the Chiefs win, it’s just what they do. I do think the Eagles are probably the stronger all-around team though. They say defense wins Championships and with two of the best defenses in the league on show here I guess they’re correct. If I was forced to pick I’d be taking Patrick Mahomes MVP at 6/5 – If the Chiefs win I see no way that he doesn’t get the award.
I’ve got nothing on the total. I’d be leaning under as I think the Eagles get the run game going and keep it slower, but we saw a few years ago it could be very different.
That’s it for the season. Thanks for reading this season, and every season. It’s much appreciated. If you don’t already give me a follow on X – @TouchdownTips and @NFLUK – Just because it’s a nice handle to have.
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