NFL Opening Friday; Chiefs v Chargers in Brasil

Chiefs -3 v Chargers: 47.5

Should start by saying IT’S ON YOUTUBE, NOT ON SKY. DAZN have it as well, but apparently on a delay.

The NFL returns to Brazil and will be hoping that the field holds up better than it did last year. Obviously, they don’t care as they’re getting paid anyway, but a good spectacle would be nice, and they’ve picked a nice matchup for the second island slot of the week with this AFC West clash.

The Chiefs, of course, made the Super Bowl again last year and are excellent coming off of extended rest. They also gave Mahomes a bit of time in pre-season, so he should be firing to start the year, a spot where they’re 9-1 SU in the last decade, the one loss coming by a single point a couple of years ago. The Chiefs also own the division, having won the last 9 iterations of the AFC West; they’re 8-2 against the Chargers in the last 10, although the last three games were decided by a total of 10 points.

It looks like Pacheco will get the first go on the ground again, but I think Kareem Hunt still gets mixed in more than most would like, which muddies the waters running the ball for me. We know that Rashee Rice is out; he’s suspended for the first 6 games of the season, so I’m guessing we’ll see Xavier Worthy have a good season again. I’m not a fan of Travis Kelce, I think he’s past the cliff now and with his recent engagement, I’m going to say he’s probably not as bothered about ball as he used to be, however, no one really stepped up at TE for them last year other than the odd Noah Gray TD. They’ve still got the usual depth pieces with Hollywood Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster and Justin Watson but none are reliable. Tyquan Thornton could be a long-shot option as the deep threat (14/1 Betway, 9/1 WillHill the top of the more mainstream) as they struggle with a few injuries/suspensions.

The Chiefs have had a re-organisation on the OL as well, which may hurt them, although Mahomes is still one of the best in the league when he has to put the effort in and his 4th quarter record is absurd, mostly because they’re a defense-first team who keep the score close and I don’t see that changing.

The Chargers gave Justin Herbert his first ever pre-season appearance this year as they look to get up to speed and they gave him the remaining two games off, and he had a fine season last year before utterly shitting the bed in the wildcard round against the Texans where he threw 4 interceptions (one more than he had in the entire season before that point).

They went to a more run-heavy approach last season with Jim Harbaugh as coach and that should continue with the signing of plodder Najee Harris who will get them a solid 3.5 YPC throughout the entire season and rookie Omarion Hampton who has been named the starter for the season opener. He’s a strong runner who can break tackles and should be fun to watch in the big league, I do worry that they go to Najee in short-yardage situations. Hampton to record 5 rush yards per quarter at 12/5 on PP looks fine.

They should be led by Ladd McConkey at WR who had a great rookie year and now has the chance to learn from Chargers legend Keenan Allen after he re-signed to the team with Mike Williams choosing to retire, I’m sure he’ll get involved along with Quintin Johnston who looked better in his second year and rookie Tre Harris. Will Dissly leads the TE room ahead of Tyler Conklin in a position they like to give the ball to. Maybe a sensible prop option there. 13/2 Anytime for Dissly and o1.5 receptions for him.

I don’t think this is going to be very high-scoring so I’ll be looking under the total and a small
lean to the Chargers covering the field goal spread. My bet here though will be the Tri-bet; Either team to win by 7 or fewer points, at 5/6 on PaddyPower, you can probably get better on Bet365 where they offer 6 or fewer points. Although the Chiefs have won 8/10 between these teams over the last 5 years 7 of them were by one score. Expect it to be fairly close.

I’ll be back on Sunday with a look at the entire slate, finally getting back into the swing of things and looking forward to Redzone even with it’s 2 minutes of adverts in the 7 hours it’s on TV.