The NFL season returns in force for the Sunday slate, we’ve already seen the teams who competed for the Lombardi last season play this week with the champion Eagles winning over the Cowboys in a tight game and the loser Chiefs losing to their divisional rival Chargers in Brazil in a game that Justin Herbert looked VERY good in, keep an eye on his rushing yards going forward…
The UK has been blessed in terms of coverage for the coming year with Channel 5 showing a 6 o’clock game on their main channel and a 9 o’clock game on 5Action – Channel 150 on Sky. AS WELL AS Sky Sports showing 2 games in the 6pm slot and AT LEAST 2 in the 9pm slot. A big gain for people who don’t pay for Gamepass which has made another huge jump in price for the coming season.
The start of the season brings the start of DFS and with DraftKings abandoning us last year we’re left with few options. My go-to is Fantasy Gameday App, if you’ve not got an account there yet, sign up with the code TDTIP and you’ll get a free matched game for this weekends slates, they start at £3 an entry and the choices are ever expanding as they get more popular.
Giants +6 @ Commanders: 45.5 (C5)
The Giants are starting Russell Wilson at the moment but it looks like Jaxson Dart could be in there fairly soon as he impressed in pre-season and Wilson is in no way the future, although he will provide adequate QB play at least. He’s good enough to target Malik Nabers 10 times a game and that will probably happen as they’ve not done much else to help the offense over the summer, Theo Johnson will look to step up as the TE1 for them.
The run game is still a little messy as well, Tyrone Tracy probably the 1, but Devin Singletary and rookie Cam Skattebo will be look to get the ball too, probably in that order of importance.
The Giants defense is their strong point though and looks even stronger with Abdul Carter in there, the widely-considered best player in the draft going alongside Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux should be good up front.
The Commanders made the playoffs last season with Jayden Daniels looking like a world beater in his rookie season and they’ll be hoping that continues this year, but we saw a Sophomore slump from CJ Stroud last year so it’s not guaranteed. Once teams get film on you it’s much tougher, but Daniels mobility should let him continue to look good on the field. The Commies traded away Brian Robinson and have put Austin Ekeler at the top of their depth chart, for now at least it looks like it might be a 3-headed monster of him, Chris Rodriguez and rookie “Bill” Jacory Croskey-Merritt, a rookie who’s been getting a lot of hype in pre-season.
They signed Terry McLaurin to a new contract to keep him happy and brought in Deebo Samuel from the 49ers to upgrade their WR corps, although it’s not great behind the two of them, they’ll want more from 2nd year Luke McCaffrey and hope that speedy Jaylin Lane can start well. That means it will probably be Zach Ertz getting a lot of the ball from the TE spot, and he’s one I’ll continue to look for on props.
A lot of people like the Giants here, and I think they’ll keep it close enough to be able to cover the spread. Ertz o3.5 recs is the bet for me, 16/5 the best price for C Rod is too short.
Bengals -5 @ Browns: 48
The Bengals have been terrible in the opening week since Joe Burrow came into the league, he’s sitting on a 1-4 record in week 1 and the team took steps to help that by playing the starters in a couple of pre-season games, only Sunday will tell whether that has worked or not, from the outside they seem to have had the best off-season on offense in recent years.
Higgins, Chase, Brown, Gesicki, Fant, Iosivas, the offense doesn’t need too much talking about. The defense however looks the same as last year, so probably more high-scoring games for the Bengals this season.
The Browns are doing Cleveland things still. Joe Flacco will start the season as the QB, like he did 17 years ago when making his debut for the Ravens. Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku the likely top targets for him and we’re still waiting on Quishon Judkins to sign up as legal issues and investigations hamper his career before it’s even got started. I guess Jerome Ford will start at RB for them with Dylan Sampson 2nd there.
The Bengals really should win, but I’ve seen this one before, not a chance in hell I’m betting on them this week. Lose here though and it’s basically playoffs over already. Njoku anytime – 13/5 PaddyPower is a great price for a favoured target against a bad defense, Chase is 10/11 at SportingIndex and SpreadEx if any of you have them, I doubt he’ll be near even much this season. I think Noah Fant is overpriced as well at 10/1 but his workload is iffy at the moment.
Steelers -3 @ Jets: 38 (Sky 412)
Aaron Rodgers kept the Steelers waiting over the summer before deciding to give it one more year, much to the joy of the NFL media who instantly decided that he made the Steelers a challenger. That despite that fact that they don’t really have much else on offense. Jaylen Warren gets the RB1 slot with Kenneth Gainwell listed behind him and rookie Kaleb Johnson 3rd on the depth chart.
DK Metcalf came in and got paid very well while George Pickens left the building. So they’ve got 1 WR, and a load of TE’s after bringing in Jonnu Smith. He comes in alongside Pat Friermuth and Darnell“he’s the size of” Washington. So I think it’s safe to say they’ll play a lot of 2 TE sets again this year. The WR2… Calvin Austin. It’s not great there. Their defense is good though, TJ Watt was briefly the highest paid non-QB in the league until the Parsons trade. The biggest shock is that Allen Lazard hasn’t appeared in the Steelers facility yet.
The Jets have a QB facing their former QB as well with Justin Fields getting the start for them at the Metlife, he’s not very good at throwing the ball but his dynamism means they’re probably better at the position than they were last year and without all that comes along with Rodgers. Garrett Wilson is obviously a very good receiver but he’ll do well to show on the stat-sheet this year, although he should get the bulk of the targets. Josh Reynolds and Allen Lazard are the men behind him, it’s not inspiring.
Breece Hall is a good RB and should come in healthy with Braelon Allen behind him, and Mason Taylor has been brought in at TE to immediately become the starter at the position. They did lose OL Vera-Tucker to injury this week which could hurt them, either way they will likely be 4th in division again this year.
Have to lean under the total really, despite it being the lowest on the board. Guess take the home dogs if you want a side. I hate Aaron Rodgers and don’t think he’s good but he knows how to get the ball to one guy and that will be DK Metcalf on this team, 15/8 (Betfred, Quinnbet) is too high for him. I’m fine with the 9/5 at the big 3.
Cardinals -6.5 @ Saints: 43.5
Not a big preview on this one. The Saints will likely be the worst team in the league this year, starting Spencer Rattler in this one with rookie Tyler Shough on the bench. Alvin Kamara will probably get all the work with Chris Olave hopefully healthy for the season after a couple of horrible concussions last year, Rashid Shaheed back from an ACL and Juwan Johnson doing what they can through the air. Oh, they got Brandin Cooks back too.
The Cardinals are a team in the NFL. As far as inoffensive teams go they’re the ones for me. Not going to threaten the post-season, not going to be bad. They exist. Kyler Murray is good enough, Trey McBride one of the best TE’s in the league and Marv Harrison Jnr should improve on a fair rookie season. James Conner and Trey Benson may be a little closer on carries this year, but Conner will continue his career as the lead back.
Cardinals should win, but taking them to cover a TD? They SHOULD do it, I just find it tough to have any strong opinion on them either way. No bet for me here, just a precaution on Trey McBride as I know a lot like him this week, his highest season for TDs is 4.
Bucs -1 @ Falcons: 47.5 (Sky 404)
A tasty NFC South clash to open the season with the two teams you’d expect to be competing for the title come January. I know a lot of people who remain high on Baker after his performance last year and the relative unknown of Michael Penix will be interesting on the other side of things. The Falcons won both games between these sides last year.
Baker led the Buccs to the playoffs last year with a 10-7 before losing narrowly to the Commanders in the wildcard round. They became the first team ever to have a 70% completion percentage and average more than 5 yards per carry, and Mike Evans once again topped 1,000 yards despite missing 3 games. I see no reason for Baker Mayfield to regress and Mike Evans is still there with probably rookie Emeka Egbuka as the 2 to start the season as Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan will be on the sidelines. That might mean more for Cade Otton as well who’s usually reliable at TE.
It looks like the run game will go through Bucky Irving who had a great first season with Rashaad White and Sean Tucker behind him, White the more pass-catching, Tucker probably the straight replacement should Bucky go down.
The Falcons started with Kirk Cousins but that experiment didn’t go too well and with the season practically done moved to Michael Penix Jnr. He played 3 full games to close season with 2 overtime games in a row against the Commies and the Panthers before a big win against the Giants. 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 57ish% completion percentage, he was fine. In those starts Penix attempted exactly 100 passes… 39 of those went to Drake London, that’s… *reaches for calculator… 39%. So I think despite him having a full summer with as the starter, we can say that Drake London will get the ball a lot. Darnell Mooney is the WR2 and unless something miraculous has happened with Kyle Pitts we’re probably still not going to see what was expected from him. They didn’t really add to offense in the draft so it’s probably more of the same.
Bijan Robinson is the man for them, he had 12% of the targets, 5,5,2 in their games and over 70 carries in them, he’s rather good so the plan will be giving him as much of the ball as possible and metriculating down the field. Tyler Allgeier will get a few carries as well.
I’m taking the Bucs here, I feel they’re the better side and the line HAD them as practically even, was +2.5 when writing, now -1. Cade Otton anytime – 11/4 – I was hoping Bucky would be Evens or above, but he’s just under that at 5/6.
Dolphins +1 @ Colts: 46.5
My my, what a distinctly average looking game we have on this one. The Dolphins are just mired in mediocrity and the Colts are starting Daniel Jones at QB. I’m not sure many will be tuning into this one on Gamepass.
Tua goes into his 6th year as starter after playing in 11 of their 17 games last season, he finished last year with a league-leading 72.9 completion percentage and a 100+ rating at QB, so he’s getting the ball out there behind an OL which is ranked as one of the worst in the league. The passes to De’von Achane definitely help those numbers and he looks like he’ll be playing in the opener after struggling with an injury through camp. Achane had 78 receptions last year as a PPR cheat code and without Raheem Mostert in the side should be a little more reliable in all situations. 6 rushing, 6 receiving TDs for him last season. I do like a nibble on Ollie Gordon for a TD in this one as he’s the RB2 for at least the day with Jaylen Wright out injured.
Waddle and Hill are still there adding the pace down and able to take any pass to the house and without Jonnu Smith who ate up a lot of targets and TDs last year their numbers may rise in those areas, although they did bring in Nick Westbrook-Ikhene who had a ridiculous catch to TD ratio last season. They randomly got Darren Waller out of retirement to replace Smith at TE but he’s “got an injury” so will miss this one, and rumours are that he may not even play a snap for the hapless Dolphins.
The Colts have decided to go with Daniel Jones and despite the mockery he gets, I don’t think he’s THAT bad, he’ll move the ball and can scramble when needed as well, he’ll at least be able to connect on 10-20 yard passes which is something that Anthony Richardson was unable to do last year, a cannon for an arm, but absolutely zero touch and despite being a great rusher, he took a lot of hits and was constantly banged up. He’ll likely get some starts this season but it’s a wait and see on that one.
Michael Pittman and Josh Downs should get a boost in numbers due to Jones being in there and rookie TE Tyler Warren looks like he’ll be a useful asset for a team who like to target their TE’s in the redzone, could be a big year for him. They’ll want more from Adonai Mitchell who was close on a lot of deeper shots last year and with a little more accuracy at QB could return some decent numbers this year.
Jonathan Taylor had a good season with 1,400 yards and 11 TDs on the ground and will get a lot of the ball this season as well with rookie DJ Giddens and second-year Tyler Goodson behind him.
Two teams who seem destined for mid-table mediocrity this year. I’d probably be taking the Dolphins but a lot of people seem to be on the Colts, so it’s a stay away for me on side. Westbrook-Ikhene – 15/2 – Long shot but without a play-making TE they don’t have much height other than him. Gordon is too short for my money at around 21/10.
Panthers +3.5 @ Jaguars: 46.5
The Panthers finished the season relatively strong with Bryce Young looking like he settled into the role. He finished the year with 3 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs in a game against the Falcons, so they’ll be hoping he continues something like that, he did look better as the year went on after a rough start.
They have tried to give him some help over the summer by drafting Tetor.. tetar…Tetairoa McMillan (I’ll go with just Tet from now on) with the 8th pick and it’s fair to assume he’ll instantly be the most targeted WR they’ve got with comps to Drake London, he’s big bodied and a good route-runner, should be fun to watch. They lost Adam Thielen who moved back to Minnesota and replaced him with slot-boy Hunter Renfrow and Xavier Legette will get a lot of game time as well still. I like the look of Ja’tavion Sanders at TE who had a rough campaign with injuries, I think he’ll be used a lot if he’s healthy.
Chuba Hubbard got a decent deal before the end of last summer and they brought in Rico Dowdle as an upgrade to Miles Sanders at RB2, Chuba finished with nealry 1,200 yards and 12 TDs as he earned his pay packet.
Is the season on the line for the Jags? They HAVE to get off to a win here otherwise the boo-birds will be out in force immediately. Will new head coach Liam Coen make them watchable? He’s come in from being the OC in Tampa and we know how good their offense looked last year.
So finally Trevor Lawrence might at least half live up to the hype when he came out of college as the second-coming of Payton Manning. Personally I think he’s the issue, but we’ll see how he does under hopefully some competent coaching.
Brian Thomas Jnr. had a fantastic rookie year which has led to him being drafted him in Fantasy leagues all summer and that should carry on, and they brought in Travis Hunter who looks like he’ll be playing mainly on offense but will also get 20-odd snaps on defense for them as well, it will be very interesting to see how that all turns out as we go through the season. Dyami Brown the man behind those two and not a whole lot more. Brenton Strange is the TE for them now, I doubt I’ll be looking to him this week but there are targets available on this team.
The run game stagnated last season with Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne both struggling at points, so they brought in Tuten in the draft, again, it’s a watching brief for me at that spot as I’m far from convinced on any of them.
I have nothing on the side in this one, most are hoping/expecting the Jags to be better on offense, I’m not so sure it will make much difference personally, so I’d lean to the Panthers getting over a field goal. I like Ja’tavion Sanders at 7/2, 4/1 but I’ll leave him out for this week to keep an eye on his snaps.
Raiders +2.5 @ Patriots: 44
Another fairly dud game on the slate as the new look Raiders travel across the country to take on the new look Patriots.
The Raiders had no QB for the season last year so it’s no shock they had a top 5 pick which they used on Ashton Jeanty who put up absurd numbers in a sub-par college conference but showed he could still do it against better teams, I think he’ll be a star, but there’s still a little risk there given the level of competition he generally faced in college. Raheem Mostert is the RB2 for them.
Geno Smith comes in at QB having led the league in deep shots last season. I have found out this summer that I’m incredibly low on Geno compared to consensus, I feel his floor is his ceiling and there’s not much else there, but that’s still a lot better than they had last year. He’ll enjoy tossing the ball to Brock Bowers who had a record-setting rookie year at TE and will continue that this season. Jakobi Meyers expressed a little discontent over the summer but will start as the WR1 for them with speedster Tre Tucker and pretty quick Dont’e Thornton as the others likely in 3 WR sets, fellow rookie Jack Bech struggled in camp so probably sees his time limited to start the year.
The Pats welcome back Mike Vrabel who will get their defense in shape and have made some moves to be better on offense with Treyveon Henderson coming in and having a great pre-season at running back, a move which will put pressure on Rhamondre Stevenson. It looks like Steveo is still listed as the starter but will be on a short leash after a number of fumbles last season. The odds of Treyveon are prohibitively bad so I won’t be backing him to score.
They brought in experienced Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins to go alongside their young WR grouping which should give them a little more reliability in the passing game although I think Diggs is a fair way past his best now. Keyshon Boutte and Demario “pop” Douglas have both shown bits but need more consistency. Efton Chism is a rookie who got some hype in camp and has made the roster, a very deep one to keep an eye on. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper stay at TE for them, so Drake Maye should have some more options this season.
Got to go for the Raiders pulling off the win on a long road-trip. Experienced QB, the most experienced Coach in the league in Pete Carroll who becomes the oldest coach to open an NFL season. Tre Tucker anytime – 6/1
Titans +8.5 @ Broncos: 42.5
Pretty much everyone will have this as their survivor pick this week as the Titans with #1 pick Cam Ward couldn’t have faced a much tougher start to the season having to go to altitude to take on one of the best defenses in the league last year.
The Titans weren’t good, but didn’t have an adequate QB for most of the year so it was a clear and easy choice to take Cam Ward who has a strong, accurate arm and should move into the league well, although unlike a lot of newer QBs isn’t known for his rushing so we might see more of a traditional offense here. A note on #1 overall QBs – there have been 28 1 pick QBs, they are 5-22-1 SU, 8-20 ATS in their opening games.
We do know he’ll give Calvin Ridley a billion targets, but he’ll probably get Pat Surtain for most of the game here so he might have to quickly adapt to be able to move the ball. They brought in Tyler Lockett to add a lot of experience behind Ridley and it looks like Elic Ayomanor will get game time as well having an established connection with Ward over camp. They have a number of TE’s led by Chig Okonkwo who had a down year last season. It looks like my boy Whyle has gone to the Packers, so that’s a few quid saved on stupid bets on him scoring at least.
The run game will be pretty much all Tony Pollard to start the year with Tyjae Sharpe out for the time being. Pollard is all right averaging about 4 yards per carry, but they were hoping to lessen his workload so we’ll have to see how he does in the early season, he won’t get much help from Julius Chestnut as the RB2.
The Broncos are quite fairly one of the darlings of most coming into the year, they gave Bo Nix a very good rookie year and are led by one of the better coaches in the NFL, they boast a top defense and look pretty good on the other side of the ball as well. They lost 7 games last season, only one of those was by more than one score, before getting shellacked by the Bills in the playoffs.
Nix improved as the season went on and comes into this year with pressure on his shoulders with the expectation now on him and the team. He formed a good connection with Courtland Sutton who had the highest receptions and TDs of his career and looks like he’ll be the main man against this year. They had a collection of catchers behind Sutton with Marvin Mims listed as the 2 to start the year and rookies Troy Franklin who knows Nix from college and Pat Bryant who’s one to look for as we go through the season at WR. They also brought in Evan Engram to add a play-making tight end after released Noah Fant.
RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins come in at running back, Payton generally likes a bellcow back but this seems to be a two-headed group to open the year and one I’ll be avoiding until it settles down. They released Audric Estime after the experiment with him didn’t bear fruit last year.
The Broncos should win and do it comfortably. Titans under on points seems most likely, although 16.5 is an annoyingly good line. If you can get u17.5 it’s probably a bet but that seems unlikely. Pat Bryant – 10/1 and to be fair, the 13/10 for Sutton is a good price as a more sensible selection.
49ers -1.5 @ Seattle: 43.5
The 49ers look to bounce back from a horrible year having missed Christian McCaffrey for all of it, they open the season in the tundra of Seattle who moved on from DK Metcalf and Geno Smith over the summer. The NFC West has trends and the one here is that the 49ers are 6-1 in the last 7 games straight up between these two teams.
Christian McCaffrey is the key to this team and he’s panicked everyone already by popping up on the injury report with a calf injury although he should play this week it’s a concern as it was the same thing last season and he then went out for the year. They’ve taken steps at least by trading for Brian Robinson from the commanders and Isaac Guerendo showed enough to stay on the roster as well. If CMC is out it’s a huge blow for the team, especially as he welcomed a child over the summer and that tends to be a nice boost for NFL players (probably enjoying being away from a screaming child).
Brock Purdy got PAID, I don’t think he should have been, but they were in a shit position knowing they probably couldn’t have got better to replace him and that he plays their offense quite well. His throwing on the run is particularly impressive. He’s down on pass-catchers to start the year though, George Kittle the ever-reliable TE may lead them in targets tonight although Jauan Jennings should be happy having increased his incentives for the season as the de facto WR1 with Deebo in DC and Aiyuk on IR to start the year. Ricky Pearsall gets the WR2 slot after a full off-season and MVS comes in having been cut by the Seahawks over the summer.
The Seahawks are all change on offense then with Sam Darnold earning another starting role after a good season for the Vikings and Jaxon Smith-Njigba now the main man with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both out of the door. I’m still not exactly high on Darnold but while his floor is lower than Geno, I think his ceiling is too and that’s probably what the coaches are thinking with this change.
They brought in Cooper Kupp at WR which is interesting as he plays generally in the slot, the same as JSN did for the majority of his snaps last season. We’re expecting JSN to move outside and do more there, I’m not convinced that’s a good role for him but he did have a very good season last year so I’m fine to be proved wrong on that one. Troy Horton is listed as the WR3, I’ll admit, I have no idea who he is or what he’s done over the summer. AJ Barner is listed as the starting TE for them, but it should be rookie Arroyo who gets the play-making work, definitely one to look for as the season goes on.
Kenneth Walker will get the bulk of the carries on the ground although his durability is a little in question as he’s starting the year a little banged up. They have Zach Charbonnet as a good replacement and relief for him but they do tend to give the full workload to whomever starts. I also quite like Jalen Milroe the QB to get a few snaps a game as “the new Lamar Jackson” in terms of his style.
I am a little surprised to see the 49ers as faves in this one to be honest and I’ll probably go for the Seahawks getting points at home. Jauan Jennings o4.5 receptions, Brian Robinson anytime – 4/1.
Lions +2 @ Packers: 47.5 (Sky 412 and 150)
The Packers pulled off the highlight move of the summer by bringing in Micah Parsons from the Cowboys and making him the highest-paid non-QB in history. It seems that a lot of people think that makes them contenders but I’m not entirely convinced it moves the needle THAT much for them and until the Lions show me they’ve dropped off significantly with OC Ben Johnson moving on I’m not going against them.
Jared Goff was second to Tua in completion percentage last year and on the eve of the opening game they’ve given Jameson Williams a tasty new contract after he had 7 TDs and over 1,000 yards last season as the main deep threat for them. Amon-Ra St. Brown had another cracking year in the Lions offense and I doubt that stops any time soon. They’ll probably want a bit of a bounce back from Sam LaPorta though who levelled off after in his second season, although 7 TDs wasn’t exactly a bad return for him. They’ve laced with speed in the WR Corps with Kaliff Raymond also there and rookie Isaac Teslaa had an electric summer to likely get some targets here too. (I will do my best to avoid those puns, but I’m only human).
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will continue their dominance on the ground in probably the same split as they have done, so 60/40 Gibbs for the most parts, Gibbs the more adept catching the ball from the backfield. Either way it’s been working for them, so why change it.
The Packers had a good season without every really looking like they were making the Super Bowl last year as they lost to the Eagles in the wildcard round. They might not need him to be a top 5 or 10 QB but I have my doubts over Jordan Love, although I may be judging him too much on an injury hampered season last year. It should be noted after 11 INTs to start the season he didn’t throw one in the remaining 7 games of the year, although that seems to be more to do with them giving the ball to Josh Jacobs as much as antyhing else.
Josh Jacobs came in for Aaron Jones and took the role perfectly finishing the year with 16 total TDs and nearly 1,400 yards as the main man for the Packers, he looked great and hasn’t got much competition for the role this season either with Emmanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks behind him with Marshown Lloyd once again on IR.
The passing game got an update with Matthew Golden drafted in the first round expected the be the 1 for them, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed behind him, but they’re all quite similar players so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Dontayvion Wicks remains on the roster as a backup at WR and Tucker Kraft provides a good outlet at TE for them with Luke Musgrave also capable. They’ve definitely got options across the roster who should get open.
I’m taking the Lions here now that they’re getting points, and despite the money coming for the Packers all summer. Let’s be fair, neither are bad teams and both will likely top 10 wins again this year, so give me the one getting points. Gibbs o2.5 receptions – 8/15
Texans +3 @ Rams: 43 (Sky 404)
CJ Stroud had somewhat of a sophomore slump but the Texans still won a playoff game before falling to the Chiefs in the divisional round last season. They were riddled with injuries at WR, but he only threw more than 2 TDs in a game once last year and will be hoping to bounce back behind a re-vamped OL.
The Texans start the year without Tank Dell who suffered a horrific injury towards the end of last season and may well miss all of this year, so they were forced into drafting Jayden Higgins, a player who’s main comparison was to his new team mate Nico Collins, something that can’t be a bad thing. I like them to be a very good 1-2 in the passing game if Stroud gets the time to get passes out to them. They brought in Christian Kirk to help bolster that area, but he’s already picking up knocks and will miss out so Jaylin Noel could get more game time than expected as the deep shot and Dalton Schultz at TE will probably get more in the middle of the field to help them gain 10 yards a time to him.
Mixon starts the year on PUP and there’s concerns he’ll miss the entire season with a niggling foot injury which they don’t seem to be being completely honest with. Nick Chubb gets the start at RB1 after returning for the Browns last year, he looked like he had lost any burst but we’ll see how he looks with a full off-season behind him. They’ve got Dameon Pierce as the RB2 and he’s more likely the one I’ll be targeting in this game at better odds.
The Rams have question marks over the long-term health of Matthew Stafford who struggled through the off-season with a back injury, he’ll be playing most weeks but having epidurals to get through games doesn’t seem like something you really want to do, so maybe Jimmy Garoppolo will see some game-time this year?
They lost Cooper Kupp over the summer but brought in Devante Adams who adds more on the outside to give Puka Nacua the main role, they should be one of the better duos in the league. Tutu Atwell is the deep threat still and usually gets a few targets a game to take the top off of teams, he’ll be competing with Jordan Whittingham for the WR3 spot, and someone no-one has ever heard of – Konata Mumpfield is listed as the 4/5 on their depth chart. Nice name.
Kyren Williams is the main man on the ground and whether you believe it or not they have said they want more of a split between him and Blake Corum who comes into his second season, something they suggested but didn’t do much last seaosn. Williams finishing with 16 totals TDs on the year.
The under seems to be the shout on this one, both have very good offenses who will get pressure on then opposing QB, the Texans OL isn’t great and Matthew Stafford probably won’t be moving a whole lot, so any pressure on either will likely have an effect. I’ve got nothing on the spread. At the odds I like Dameon Pierce at 5/1 anytime I think it will be more of a split than most suggest at RB.
Ravens -1 @ Bills: 50.5
Quite rightly the Sunday Night Football game for week one as two of the top 3 teams in terms of odds face each other in the opener in Buffalo. In fact it’s the second time in two games the Ravens will play the Bills after losing to them in the divisional round last season before the Bills lost to the Chiefs in the conference game.
Lamar Jackson probably should have won MVP for the second time last season with the best season of his career, the highest yardage and by far the highest TD’s he’d thrown since coming into the league as he tossed 41 of the bad boys, as well as rushing for 915 yards and 4 TDs, most of that seemingly in games against the Bengals from my memory. He’s erased any bullshit about him being mainly a running back and developed into one of the best in the game.
Derrick Henry being the main running back definitely helps a QBs numbers and he showed no sign of slowing down last season despite getting up there in wear on the tyres and age, he’s a phenom and I don’t think that will change much this year, he’s got a target of 2000 yards and 16 TDs to top from last year where he averaged a stupid 5.9 YPC. He’s got Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell and Rasheen Ali behind him.
The passing game looks destined to go through Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews for the most part and that obviously works fine as Flowers hit 1000 yards on the season and MAndrews had a career-best 11 TDs on the season, he does split with Isiah Likely now, but he’s missing this game through injury so it’s all MAndrews. Rashod Bateman does fine as the WR2 and they’ve brought in Deandre Hopkins to see if he’s got anything left in the tank after a sharp fall off since leaving the Cardinals.
They struggled at CB behind Marlon Humphrey so signed Jaire Alexander over the summer to help that department. They were already one of the better defenses in the league, so the strong gets stronger.
The Bills walked through their regular season in the AFC East and overcame a hump by beating the Chiefs, but they couldn’t do it where it really mattered and missed the Super Bowl again. Josh Allen got the MVP award but like Lamar, I still have doubts about them winning the really important games.
Allen is incredible though and he’s doing it really without a very good defense or a proper WR1 with Khalil Shakir leading the team in receptions last year mainly from the slot. They’ll need Keon Coleman to step up in his second year and more from Dalton Kincaid at TE on offense. They did bring in Joshua Palmer who showed flashes at the Bucs, but they’re still largely under-talented at that position.
Fortunately with Allen in there they’re a very good rushing team as James Cook showed last season by earning himself a big contract with 16 TDs on the ground, tying with Dezza Hezza for the league-lead. He gets the bulk of the carries but they’re happy giving Ray Davis and Ty Johnson the ball on the ground as well.
For me the Ravens are the better team here although they’re very similar in the way they want to play the game. I’ll be going Ravens despite them being on the road. Should be a cracker to close out the opening Sunday slate. Note: the line has flipped since I began writing from +1.5 to -1 for the Ravens.
Vikings -1.5 @ Chicago: 44
Monday night football comes from the windy city as two NFC North opponents face off against each other. The Vikings will be giving JJ McCarthy his debut while the Bears have a TON of hype behind them as they look to improve with Caleb Williams at QB.
McCarthy has had a year on the sidelines to learn what he can and the coaching staff obviously have faith in him being able to do it in the NFL. I’m very rookie averse so obviously I’ll be waiting to see how it goes on that front. He does have one of the best WRs in the league to throw to which will probably help things in Justin Jefferson and when Jordan Addison comes back after his 3-game suspension will have another very good target, but in this one it seems destined to be Jeff and TJ Hockenson at TE who lead the team. They brought back home-town hero Adam Thielen who took a paycut to return to Minnesota and they know what they’ll get with him, and Jalen Nailor did well without Addison last year.
Aaron Jones gets the start on the ground, but most expect Jordan Mason to get the goal-line work after coming in from SF. Jones rushing TD line is set at just 3.5 for the season on PaddyPower, that’s the one pre-season bet I’ve taken.
The Bears have invested in protection for their young QB as they look to take a big step forward in arguably the toughest division in the league, will it pay off? Again, I’ve got reservations over Caleb Williams, but he’s at least got some help this year.
DJ Moore has been taking snaps at RB, but should still be the WR1 for the team with Rome Odunze a good 1b or 2, depending how you look at it, I think he’ll be closer to Moore in terms of targets than he was last season, and they went high on TE in the draft with Colston Loveland coming in and expected to be a big attribute immediately although I do still like Cole Kmet at the bigger prices we should get for him now. Rookie Luther Burden will hope he’s anything but that as he rounds out the WR group.
D’Andre Swift retains his role on the ground and will probably do the same as last year although should also benefit from an upgraded OL. Roschon Johnson will fill in well as a slightly lesser version when required but the difference between the two isn’t huge.
The big story in this one though is how will new head coach Ben Johnson do for the Bears? He came from the Lions who had one of the best offenses in the league and most expect that to Bear fruit (…) for Chicago. If the Lions don’t look good on offense on Sunday evening then take the Bears over team total.
Right, that’s it, a MAMMOTH opening Sunday preview, well done if you bother reading through all of it. They won’t be anywhere near as bulky going forward.
TouchdownTips 
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