Week 2; TNF; Commanders @ Packers

Commanders +3.5 @ Packers: 48.5

Both teams come into this one with a win under their belts already with relatively easy wins against their opponents in week 1.

I asked the Packers to show me they could beat the best teams and they opened the season with a comfortable two-score win against the Lions, their new-look defense holding Jared Goff to under 5 ypc, the second lowest in the league last weekend. Fair play to the Packers, maybe they are real contenders after all.

The Commanders defense had a field day against a statuesque Russell Wilson who they held to 17/37, 168 passing yards and no scores in an easy win over the Giants in the opener, and more impressively to just 74 yards on the ground with over half of those coming from the Wilson. They looked in control from the off meaning they shouldn’t be too tired for this road trip on a short week.

Packers

Jordan Love ranked as the 3^rd best QB of the week as he was highly effective with the relatively small workload the Packers were able to restrict him to, 16 from 22 for 188 and 2 TDs as they got ahead early and used Josh Jacobs to control the game with 19 carries for just 66 yards, but they moved the chains and that was all they needed to do.

They’ll obviously want more of the same and I don’t see why they won’t be able to do that, although the Washington front is rather good, so it may mean a little more pressure than the Lions managed at the weekend as they restricted them to just 2 tackles for loss and no sacks throughout the game.

The passing game is always tough to call for the Packers as they’ve got a number of receivers, which is great for them, terrible for us. Jayden Reed is probably the 1, but rookie Matthew Golden is expected to challenge him for that spot when healthy, keep an eye on him for tonight as he has been cleared to play. Romeo Doubs has proven himself reliable over the years and Dontayvion Wicks usually has a couple of catches per game, and that’s without mentioning the TE’s led by Tucker Kraft who opened his account already with Luke Musgrave pretty good behind him.

Tough team to call from a props perspective but they look as reliable as ever in the regular season after just one game.

I should probably mention the defense as everyone else is talking about them, I didn’t watch enough of the game but most things I heard were incredibly positive of the contribution Micah Parsons added on debut despite not much in the stat sheet, his cheetah like chasing down of gazelle Goff was fun to watch and showed the engine he’s adding to that area of the field.

Commanders

A strong defensive performance from the Commanders meant that Jayden Daniels didn’t have to extend himself too much either on Sunday, 19 from 33 for 233 and a TD and just missed on a deep shot to Terry McLaurin which would have added another 50, he also rushed for 68 yards. He’ll be looking to avoid a sophomore slump and his mobility should help him do that, it might be needed tonight with the Packers pass rush as well.

Austin Ekeler led the touches in the backfield early on before a knock meant that Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt marked his NFL debut with a TD. He’s been hyped all summer, they traded away Brian Robinson and didn’t play Chris Rodriguez and it looks like that decision could be paying off for them already and he averaged over 8 yards per carry on debut. Deebo Samuel also rushed in from 19 on an end-around that we were used to seeing when he was on the 49ers.

Deebo also led the team in receptions and yards, finishing with 7 from 77, he’ll be a tricky one to cover if he’s back to his best on a new side. Terry McLaurin didn’t do too much but missed on a deep shot, Noah Brown got some endzone targets alongside his 2 for 27 and Zach Ertz was fairly reliable although an early drop cost me the o3.5 receptions for him, he did find the endzone. Not much youth coming through in the pass-catching department but they’re fine for this year.

Should be a very fun game, and with it being early in the season the short rest for the Commanders shouldn’t hit them too hard.

I think the line is about right, I’d have to lean to the Packers covering the 3.5, Matt LeFluer is 12-0 ATS in Week 2 and 3, but I would be surprised if it’s a blowout.

I guess I’d be looking at a TE double at decent odds, Kraft and Ertz to both score, just over 11/1 on SkyBet. Daniels o8.5 rush attempts – 8/11