Not a terrible week for me on here last weekend, and the Bengals won their first game for only the second time since Burrow took over at QB. Obviously, they didn’t deserve it in the slightest but a wins a win and I racked up a nice TE double on Thursday Night Football where the Packers continued to look very good and moved to 2-0. Pour one out for Austin Ekeler though who’s done for the season with an achilles injury.
Week 1 in general you’re usually looking for an 0-1 team against a 1-0 team, they have a 54-40 ATS record over the last 20 years, and you’re hoping the bookies reacted to the 11-3 unders on Sunday/Monday night from last week and have lowered their totals this week. There were also a lot of close games last weekend, not the best quality in my eyes, but a lot of tight one which kept the evening interesting.
The start of the season brings the start of DFS and with DraftKings abandoning us last year we’re left with few options. My go-to is Fantasy Gameday App, if you’ve not got an account there yet, sign up with the code TDTIP and you’ll get a free matched game for this weekends slates, they start at £3 an entry and the choices are ever expanding as they get more popular.
I set up a Bluesky account quite a while ago but haven’t used it at all, if you’re avoiding the cesspit of X then give me a follow https://bsky.app/profile/tdtips.bsky.social, I’ll start posting the preview link over there from now on.
Patriots +2.5 @ Dolphins: 423 (C5)
Arguably the worst looking game on the slate, but two teams who are widely supported in the UK from when the NFL was televised on free-to-air back in the day with Marino, and then the Pats dominance, so I guess I’ll cut Channel 5 some slack for choosing this one.
Both lost in week 1, neither looked particularly good, the Dolphins look like they’ll be after a new head coach soon as their game was an utter shambles while the Patriots didn’t put up too much of a fight against the Raiders at home.
The Patriots put up yardage at least, Drake Maye finding Boutte, Diggs and running back Henderson with 6 receptions each, Henderson also led yardage on the ground although it was just 27 from 5 attempts as they went away from the run game quickly. Will they be trailing here? I doubt Vrabel wants his QB to throw 46 times in a game.
Tua… A 3.8 QBR…I can’t put all the blame on him, the coaching obviously isn’t great and McDaniel’s ego is such that he just won’t change his style and the offensive line is TERRIBLE but even when he had time he threw it straight to a Colts defender, I won’t post speculation, I’ll stick with. It was awful. Tyreek Hill was kicking off on the sideline, Waddle had a big reception then left with a shoulder injury, De’Von Achane remains a PPR cheat code at least, he scored from a reception, and in fairness… 7 for 55 for him. He was viable at least. Ollie Gordon got 2 rush attempts but they were trailing 20-0 at half time, they weren’t going to run much.
DESPITE all of this I’m taking the Dolphins to win. They’re back home, they CAN’T be that bad again and teams don’t do well coming to Florida in the opening weeks of season. I doubt it will be high-scoring though, take the under. Achane o4.5 receptions – 11/10, Julian Hill at 7/1 anytime is a decent look too, caught the 2-point conversion last week, but it would need the Dolphins to get near the goal-line which wasn’t easy last week.
Bears +6.5 @ Lions: 46.5 (SkyMain)
Ben Johnson immediately returns to Detroit to take on the team he so successfully coached on offense with both teams having lost to divisional rivals last weekend. Not pivotal this early but a very important match for these teams.
I didn’t watch the Bears game so can only pass on what I’ve heard, they looked better on offense, it looks like Odunze could be taking the lead in pass catching and Cole Kmet was still involved even with rookie TE Loveland there. D’Andre Swift 97% of running back snaps, the most of any back in the league and they gave DJ Moore a few rush attempts after giving him snaps there in training camp. Olamide Zaccheaus with a random 4 from 7 targets, keep an eye on that one.
The Lions were very poor against a Packers team that I under-rated, but they’re back home and facing the coach most people seem to give credit to for their recent success, they will want blood. Goff was 31/39 but his yards per attempt was something like 5, one of the lowest in his career, so they were easy catches on the whole, mainly to Jahmyr Gibbs (I will one day spell that correctly first time) who caught 10 of 10 for just 31 yards. LaPorta and ARSB led the pass-catchers as expected, Jameson Williams signed a new contract but didn’t do much and Monty actually got more carries, although Gibbs with 9 for 19 with a long of 14 yards shows why they maybe went away from him last week.
Divisional games tend to be close so I’m leaning to the Bears covering. Over on the total. Cole Kmet anytime – 5/1 (PP, there’s 11/2 at 10bet and Starsports if you have them)
Rams -5.5 @ Titans: 41.5
The Rams got it done in a low-scoring game against the Texans and I think it will be more of the same against another AFC South opponent. The Titans kept it close against the Broncos with Cam Ward underwhelming in arguably the toughest matchup he’ll have all year.
Stafford and Puka and Kyren, it seems like that’s all the Rams need. 10 for 130 yards for Puka, Kyren 18 carries for 66 and a TD. Davante Adams had 4 receptions there wasn’t really much for anyone else, a true studs and duds roster at the moment.
The Titans actually did quite well against the Broncos, they kept it close due to their defense but the offense didn’t get going. Ward recorded the 2nd lowest QBR of the week completing under half his passes and was sacked 6 times, a baptism of fire. Ridley is the main target and will be throughout and rookie Elic Ayomanor looks like the second read.
Looks to me like defense will be on top here, I like the Rams and the under. Kyren anytime Puka o6.5 receptions – 4/6
Jaguars +3.5 @ Bengals: 49
The Jaguars easily beat the Panthers, and traded away Tank Bigsby this week so the new coach is obviously happy with Travis Etienne who had 143 yards on 16 carries. Travis Hunter led them on targets catching 6 of 8 while standout WR Brian Thomas remarkably only caught 1 of his 8 targets, kind of absurd. Brenton Strange is the TE1 there, he led the team in yards and if last week is anything to go by, has a great matchup this week.
The Bengals always terrible in week 1 and Burrow tends to struggle vs the Browns regardless of time so their performance wasn’t a shock, they definitely didn’t deserve to win last week. They’re not much better in Week 2’s but I expect a bounce back here. Not a whole lot to say on offense after 7 yards in the second half last week other than Fant out-snapped Gesicki and scored the TD for them. Expect them to be better this week against a worse defense. Bengals run defense was actually very good, their passing defense, not so much
I am expecting a Bengals win with Chase TD. Brenton Strange o3.5 receptions.
Browns +11.5 @ Ravens: 45
The Browns should have won last weekend, but “interceptions” cost them, they were fumbles really, on target passes pushed up into the air by receivers, harsh on Flacco who returns to the team who drafted him for the first time as an opponent. Jerome Ford could already be usurped rookie Dylan Sampson (it’s his 21st on Sunday) who led on the ground and caught a lot (8) out of the backfield with fellow rookie, the TE Harold Fannin having a good debut. Is Cedric Tillman the WR1 for them now? Down ticks for Njoku and Jeudy after week 1. Quishon Judkins will make his NFL debut but will be on a snap count after the Browns signed him despite legal things going on in the background, that’s never backfired for the Browns before though has it?
The Ravens should also have won last weekend but gave it up in the 4th quarter to probably the best team in the AFC, I have the Ravens right up there and this should be a bounce-back spot for them. Derrick Henry looked like he just carried on from last season, Lamar Jackson did what he always does and Zay Flowers was one of two WR’s to top 100 yards last Sunday. I’d selfishly like to see more MAndrews after he caught one pass last week, but I can’t blame them for not changing things.
This is actually a weird matchup for the Ravens, this contest is 4-4 in the last 4 seasons, splitting each season, although only one of those Browns wins in Baltimore. It should be an easy bet on the Ravens, but I can’t do it. Dylan Sampson receptions?. Tillman anytime – 4/1 Betfred, 7/2 most
Bills -6 @ Jets: 47.5
Josh Allen led his team to 16 points in the final 4 minutes of the game last week to beat the Ravens and put down a marker for the season, and while this could be a let down spot for a lot of teams, I don’t think that will be the case with the Bills. James Cook scored 1, Allen rushed in 2 as they took most of the ground work. Keon Coleman looks like he’s taken a step forward to be the WR1 they need with Khalil Shakir and Josh Palmer also looking good.
The Jets were arguably the most impressive team last week compared to expectation. I thought they’d struggle to score against a good Steelers defense but Justin Fields so nearly took his vengeance on that despicable franchise but ultimately fell short. Darn you Aaron Rodgers. He ran well and threw some nice passes. They got Breece Hall looking good again as well, although Fields and by the look of it Braelon Allen might be stealing his goal-line work. Garrett Wilson is class and showed he can do it no matter who he has at Q, it is pretty dire behind him though.
I actually like the Jets to cover. After last week I don’t want to over-react but I like the over on the total and roughly 17 rush TDs from these QBs. Allen and Fields TD – about 7/2. In fairness you’re probably better backing Keon Coleman anytime at around 9/4.
49ers -3 @ Saints: 40.5
Welcome back Christian McCaffrey, here’s 31 touches in your first game for 11 months. It turns out the deal made to have CmC healthy was for everyone else to be injured as the 49ers woes continued into the season. They’ve got the easiest SoS this year but are now without Purdy and Kittle for 2-5 and at least 4 weeks respectively, Jauan Jennings is banged up too with a shoulder, so we get Mac Jones and er… Kendrick Bourne? Josh Tonges? At least they got the win last weekend.
Fortunately, they’re playing the Saints who might be the worst team in the league. They did push the Cardinals to the final play last week but surely don’t want Spencer Rattler throwing 46 passes, especially with Alvin Kamara looking good. Or maybe they do with Kellen Moore at the helm now? Juwan Johnson has 9 targets a game with Rattler so is one to look towards, Chris Olave can’t stop getting hurt in game and Shaheed is still a reliable WR3.
I’m still taking the 49ers even with Mac Jones under centre. Johnson over on receptions. CMC TD (He’s not the 4/5 he was last week, best of 8/11 on 10bet, 8/15 elsewhere so no bet there) – Under on the total. Kendrick Bourne at 11/1 might not be the worst bet, he knows the playbook from seasons there before, but he also might not get anything. Juwan Johnson o3.5 – 4/6, o5.5 – 14/5 might get better odds on the 6+ but Bet365 has shit the bed this morning.
Giants +5.5 @ Cowboys: 44.5 (SkySports+)
Russell Wilson and the Giants looked awful last week and with Jaxson Dart impressing in pre-season it probably won’t be too long until a change is made. Malik Nabers the only person you can really trust on offense. Wan’Dale Robinson caught 6 of 8 for 55 yards. Their run game was inept as well, Wilson actually leading there with a huge 44 yards. Cam Skattebo at least came out and got some hits in.
The Cowboys actually looked pretty good in the season opener and get extra rest for this one. Ceedee Lamb was straight back in training working out how to catch the ball after several drops cost his team last week. George Pickens looked fine as the WR2 and he’s one I think will do well this season. Javonte Williams is definitely the main back and will get goal-line work, Miles Sanders may get more if he can hold on to the ball.
I’ve got to take the Cowboys covering, but probably in a low-scoring game, 65% of Giants games have gone under since 2023 and with Russ there I don’t see them putting up too many points. Wan’Dale receptions line is 3.5, that’s tempting.
Seahawks +3 @ Steelers: 40.5
The ‘hawks lost to a battered 49ers, but easily could have won with some better coaching and luck last weekend. The mix at running back is a little confusing, although Walker was hampered a bit in camp so I guess it shouldn’t shock too much seeing Zach Charbonnet getting more work to open the season and the TD. Will be interesting to see how that plays out as the season goes along. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a ridiculous 13 of Sam Darnolds 23 targets, catching 9 for 124. Cooper Kupp having a very slow debut with just 2 catches.
The Steelers won but could have easily lost if not for experienced coaching and QB play and a lot of luck. Weird how things happen. Tomlin will have been killing his defense all week for conceding so many points to the Jets so expect them to be significantly better there. Rodgers took a lot of hits but looked quite good (yes it’s killing me to say it) with 4 TD passes. DK Metcalf led them with yards, but Calvin Austin looked favoured in the mid-range. Smth and Friermuth shared the work at TE. Kenneth Gainwell started as the main RB, but ceded to Warren for the second-half as they wore down the defense. Warren is expected to be the main man and probably will going forward, rookie Kaleb Johnson had 1 carry.
I think this will be a close one so I’ll be taking the Tri-bet again, either team to win by 7 or fewer (not less) points – 4/5 (PP). Rodgers o1.5 pass TDs – 5/4, Zach Charbonnet – 12/5 (365)
Broncos -1 @ Colts: 43.5 (SkySports+)
The Broncos were pretty darn awful last week against the Titans, I had quite an eye on that game as I had chosen them for suvivor along with about half the pool and Bo Nix looked like a right-handed Tua, but their defense got the job done against a QB playing his first game and that’s all that matters now. Courtland Sutton is still the main target but behind him it’s messier, Troy Franklin looks like the WR2 for them and then there’s a bunch in the mix for the remaining target. Marvin Mims will pop up with big games but I don’t think he can be trusted, Evan Engram will emerge through the season as he gets used to things. The run game went was largely JK Dobbins as they controlled the game in the second half but RJ Harvey should get near his usage soon as the more explosive back.
The Colts dominated the Dolphins last week with Daniel Jones doing all that was required of him to get the win, including stealing 2 TDs from Jonathan Taylor, something to worry about for fantasy and betting as we go forward. Not only did JT not find the endzone with DJ taking goal-line work, but another DJ, Giddens took attempts on the ground as well, although mainly becuase the game was wrapped up, it makes Taylor dangerous to bet on already. The passing game went mostly to rookie TE Tyler Warren who looks to have the trust of Jones already. Michael Pittman the main receiver with Pierce, Mitchell and Josh Downs getting the scraps. Daniel Jones is awful against the blitz though and he’ll see a lot of that this week.
I think I’d take the Broncos to cover, nothing on the total. Tyler Warren over 4.5 receptions.
Eagles -1 @ Chiefs: 47 (C5/SkyMain)
A Super Bowl re-match in week 2 is nice, and both teams have had extended rest, although an extra day for the Eagles who look to condemn the Chiefs to their first 0-2 start since 2014.
The Eagles got the job done against the Cowboys, thanks in large part to Ceedee Lamb forgetting how to catch the ball. They ran a lot with OPOY Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts notching up 32 carries between them, this week though they face one of the best rush defenses in the league so I’d be a little worried there. AJ Brown caught 100% of his targets last week, unfortunately, that was just 1 to basically close out the game. He’ll facing tough coverage this week and they’re without Dallas Goedert who caught 7/7 last week which makes things tougher for them, that should be a boost for Devonta Smith though who usually bumps up with Goedert missing, and should have the softer coverage. Maybe Jahan Dotson will lead them in yards again with some deep shots?
Patrick Mahomes is still amazing as shown on his diving pass last weekend which was the most impressive thing of the week, but they’re lacking options on offense already. The run game struggled and I don’t think much of Pacheco who shared carries with Kareem Hunt, Hunt got all of the 3rd down work with them chasing the game. They lost Xavier Worthy early on after Kelce took him out and he’s declared out for this week, so a lot of Hollywood Brown? Juju Smith-Schuster probably gets some more. I mentioned Tyquan Thornton in passing last week and he’s probably good for a long-shot this week (maybe not at a best of 17/4). Travis Kelce should get a lot of targets.
A very tough one to call, I’m probably taking the under, I’m tempted with Saquon unders, but he’s too good for me to bet that. Eagles should win. I wanted Devonta Smith over on his yards but I’m not going near 66.5 for him. Dotson at 10/1 might be worth a small stake.
Panthers +7 @ Cardinals: 44.5 (SkySports+)
The Panthers finished the season well last year, but looked like Bryce Young was back to early season form in their loss to the Jaguars completing only about 50% of his passes. We saw what we’d expect though, Chuba took most of the carries, Tet McMillan looks like the WR1 with Legette and Hunter Renfrow both getting targets behind him. They’re not inspiring.
The Cardinals got the job done against the Saints, but it went to the wire. Marv Harrison found the endzone and of course Trey McBride didn’t despite having similar targets, they just don’t seem to go McBride much in the redzone. James Conner and Trey Benson were closer in carries than I expected, something to keep an eye on going forward. Not a whole lot behind the main guys really.
Cardinals should win, got to lean the Panthers now it’s ticked up to 7 they have the 0-1, 1-0 trend on their side but this probably won’t be a fun one to watch. Renfrow o2.5 receptions.
Falcons +3.5 @ Vikings: 44.5
The Falcons found a way to lose last week and have benched Koo for this one after he missed a late field goal that would have tied things up. Drake London and Darnell Mooney both got banged up but are both available here, so I’m expecting another double-digit target game for London who caught 8 of 15 last week, although a long of 12 yards isn’t exactly inspiring. Mooney should be the WR2. Will Kyle Pitts go back into his shell of was his 7 receptions last week a sign of things to come? Ray Ray McCloud and rookie Casey Washington close out the pass-catching ranks. Bijan Robinson looked excellent both on the ground and catching passes last week and Tyler Allgeier will get carries too.
JJ McCarthy had a rough first half in his first start in the NFL but got it together to lead his team to a win last weekend, having Justin Jefferson always helps you look good as he opened his account for the season. They are struggling a little behind him with Jordan Addison suspended so they’ll want TJ Hockenson and Jailen Nailor to step up, but in truth they minimised the use of the passing game as they helped McCarthy settle into the league. The run game was more Jordan Mason than I expected, he had double the carries of Aaron Jones who needed a receiving TD to save his fantasy week.
Trend says the Falcons, brain says the Vikings, although I don’t like taking 3.5. Nothing on the total. London o5.5 receptions.
We’ve got two games on Monday night this week and one of them should be a fun watch at least, although it’s at 3am our time.
Bucs +2.5 @ Texans: 42.5 – Midnight
I do like watching the Bucs, they’re not great defensively and Baker Mayfield is a true gunslinger so there’s usually points. He found rookie Emeka Egbuka for 2 TDs last week on typical Mike Evans routes which is a good sign for them as a team, Evans led the team in targets and for now you’d expect that to continue. They have a couple of good pass-catching backs with Bucky Irving getting most of the carries, but Rachaad White still mixing in and Sean Tucker getting the occasional nod on the ground as well. TE Cade Otton wasn’t targeted much but the Texans defense is pretty good so it might be more dump offs to him this week.
The Texans OL killed them last week against a good Rams front, this will be easier for them and CJ Stroud should get a little more time to get passes off. He had a rough 2nd year last season and that looked to be continuing but I’ll hold on to hope for him this week. Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz had 5 targets each and didn’t do a whole lot on them, rookie Jayden Higgins led the team in yards, but with just 32. Again, they get a far easier matchup this week with the Bucs secondary struggling through injury. Nick Chubb led the ground game and averaged over 4.5 per carry which they’ll be fine with if he can keep it up.
The Texans look like they’ll be an UNDER team this season, good defense, poor OL leads to low-scoring games in general, although I have pause on this one. I think the Bucs win, but it’s not one I’ll be backing anywhere. Tribet is in play again. Either team by 7 or fewer points – 4/5 (PaddyPower – on All markets if you’re struggling to find it)
Chargers -3.5 @ Raiders: 46.5 – 3am
Justin Herbert and the Chargers put in arguably the best performance of last week when beating the Chiefs and they get the extra rest coming into another AFC West matchup here. Herbert threw over 300 yards, 3 TDs and ran it 7 times including to ice the game as he looks like he might have the year many in the NFL think he should have. He’s got 3 good WRs with Ladd McConkey, Quinten Johnston who scored twice and the returning Keenan Allen and a solid run game which looks like it will already be Omarion Hamptons over the plodding Najee Harris who missed most of the pre-season. It’s all looking pretty good for the Chargers.
The Raiders won and put up a decent amount of yards without really killing the game last weekend, Geno Smith is a huge upgrade on what they had last year and Maxx Crosby on defense will always cause issues. Tre Tucker opened with a TD, Jakobi Meyers had 8 for 97 and Brock Bowers topped 100 yards at TE, although he is banged up and questionable for Monday, keep an eye on that one as Michael Mayer could be the main target if he’s the next man up. Ashton Jeanty didn’t have the best start to his NFL with 2 yards per carry but he did bundle his way into the endzone and should look better as they adapt to him and the other way around.
Do we think the Chargers keep it up after last week? This is a bit of a sandwich spot with the Broncos on deck next weekend, they should win but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Raiders got it done. Let’s go over on the total. The Brock Bowers injury is a huge part of this game though, so we’ll go Jakobi Meyers over 5.5 receptions, and Hampton over 56.5 rush yards
TouchdownTips 
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